[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository


Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

28.1 Over the course of 2020, deaths in the US from COVID-19 will exceed deaths from the flu
28.1.a We'll have to estimate the extent because there will never be enough testing available to confirm. (We already estimate for the flu, so that'll still be apples-to-apples)
28.1.b When I go to check on this next year, I'll be very annoyed at the trouble I have finding statistics on this because flu season deaths are generally reported season-to-season, rather than by calendar year.

Biden narrowly wins, like n a r r o w l y wins the election, and afterwards when wonks are sifting through the numbers they conclude that it was only because a significant portion of the voting base for both candidates was... diminished... by COVID-19, but Trump’s base was slightly more affected and Biden squeaked by with a record low turnout of the youth vote.

Also, Biden steps down within his first year, citing unspecified health concerns. Some people suggest this was the plan all along, noting that his VP was the one doing the vast majority of campaigning and public appearances during the general, with Biden making only short, scripted, appearances under controlled circumstances. SNL does a cold open about this based upon a Weekend at Bernies parody, with the woman playing the VP lugging a comatose Biden around White House events. Like most SNL skits, lazy writing and under-rehearsal prevents it from being more than slightly amusing.

I predict that years from now, we will find out that the number of Covid-19 deaths was deliberately underreported in order to bolster confidence in the stock market.

Things get interesting in the USA when Trump, Sanders, and Biden, along with half of the Supreme Court, are all dead from COVID-19 by the end of April.

Coldstream wrote:

Things get interesting in the USA when Trump, Sanders, and Biden, along with half of the Supreme Court, are all dead from COVID-19 by the end of April.

Unfortunately it was the wrong half.

I'm kinda regretting deleting that long manic sh*tpost I made earlier. Turns out I was right so far.

I predict another great depression. Only this time it's not covered by the msm, because "Hey the stock markets doing fine!"

29.1 The US Economy continues to crash hard for the next month as the unemployment numbers and pre-social distancing infections rise exponentially.
29.1a Ironically, historians in the distant future will reach a consensus that the primary problem was that the US didn't do enough to halt the problem (for both economic stimulus and the pandemic) and future school children will dutifully mark the checkbox by "failure to act" as a contributing factor to the decline of the American Empire.
29.2 The economies in Asian countries that effectively managed the pandemic (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) and China stabilize long before the US or Europe. Global economic focus shifts there for the next decade.

I thought it'd be closer, but unless things go thunderdome in the U.S., the manner in which Biden and the Democratic Party has ceded the field to President Trump during the coronavirus crisis has basically made him a mortal lock for re-election.

Although ruhk's idea sounds terrifyingly prescient.

30.1 Easter Sunday is Sunday, April 12. On average it takes 5-6 days to show symptoms (up to 14) and a few weeks more for it to run it's course. I predict a spike of deaths around May 1st.
30.1.1 I suspect that many Catholic churches will cancel Easter mass anyway, since if there's any institution that has experience weathering a global pandemic it's the Catholic church...

Esports will air on major networks on prime time.

A few more states will move to vote by mail. Repubs will whine about how many early and mail-voters probably died while their votes still got counted. It will be pointed out that if some of the swing states had expanded early voting, which repubs blocked, they would have swung red.

There will be some controversy over how accurate the census is regarding covid deaths. Florida will keep its current EV count despite general acknowledgement that its population has greatly decreased. I will also be an opportune time to gerrymander based on census data knowing that actual district population is quite different as a result of covid deaths.

Remember when people were debating what does or does not constitute a concentration camp a year or two ago?

I predict that within the next two months they’ll be debating what does or does not constitute a mass grave.

31.1 Barack Obama is arrested and put on trial for investigating Trump's campaign. (Never mind that it won't make any sense, Trump's defenses never held water in the first place.) Will either be as part of the ramp-up to November or shortly after Trump's reelection when he's feeling invincible.
31.1.a Might be Hillary or Biden on trial (instead or in addition to)
31.2 US Unemployment will hit 50 million by August. (Unless the administration starts massively fudging the numbers, like they're doing by avoiding COVID-19 testing.)