[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository


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This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

28.1 Over the course of 2020, deaths in the US from COVID-19 will exceed deaths from the flu
28.1.a We'll have to estimate the extent because there will never be enough testing available to confirm. (We already estimate for the flu, so that'll still be apples-to-apples)
28.1.b When I go to check on this next year, I'll be very annoyed at the trouble I have finding statistics on this because flu season deaths are generally reported season-to-season, rather than by calendar year.

Biden narrowly wins, like n a r r o w l y wins the election, and afterwards when wonks are sifting through the numbers they conclude that it was only because a significant portion of the voting base for both candidates was... diminished... by COVID-19, but Trump’s base was slightly more affected and Biden squeaked by with a record low turnout of the youth vote.

Also, Biden steps down within his first year, citing unspecified health concerns. Some people suggest this was the plan all along, noting that his VP was the one doing the vast majority of campaigning and public appearances during the general, with Biden making only short, scripted, appearances under controlled circumstances. SNL does a cold open about this based upon a Weekend at Bernies parody, with the woman playing the VP lugging a comatose Biden around White House events. Like most SNL skits, lazy writing and under-rehearsal prevents it from being more than slightly amusing.

I predict that years from now, we will find out that the number of Covid-19 deaths was deliberately underreported in order to bolster confidence in the stock market.

Things get interesting in the USA when Trump, Sanders, and Biden, along with half of the Supreme Court, are all dead from COVID-19 by the end of April.

Coldstream wrote:

Things get interesting in the USA when Trump, Sanders, and Biden, along with half of the Supreme Court, are all dead from COVID-19 by the end of April.

Unfortunately it was the wrong half.

I'm kinda regretting deleting that long manic sh*tpost I made earlier. Turns out I was right so far.

I predict another great depression. Only this time it's not covered by the msm, because "Hey the stock markets doing fine!"

29.1 The US Economy continues to crash hard for the next month as the unemployment numbers and pre-social distancing infections rise exponentially.
29.1a Ironically, historians in the distant future will reach a consensus that the primary problem was that the US didn't do enough to halt the problem (for both economic stimulus and the pandemic) and future school children will dutifully mark the checkbox by "failure to act" as a contributing factor to the decline of the American Empire.
29.2 The economies in Asian countries that effectively managed the pandemic (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) and China stabilize long before the US or Europe. Global economic focus shifts there for the next decade.

I thought it'd be closer, but unless things go thunderdome in the U.S., the manner in which Biden and the Democratic Party has ceded the field to President Trump during the coronavirus crisis has basically made him a mortal lock for re-election.

Although ruhk's idea sounds terrifyingly prescient.

30.1 Easter Sunday is Sunday, April 12. On average it takes 5-6 days to show symptoms (up to 14) and a few weeks more for it to run it's course. I predict a spike of deaths around May 1st.
30.1.1 I suspect that many Catholic churches will cancel Easter mass anyway, since if there's any institution that has experience weathering a global pandemic it's the Catholic church...

Esports will air on major networks on prime time.

A few more states will move to vote by mail. Repubs will whine about how many early and mail-voters probably died while their votes still got counted. It will be pointed out that if some of the swing states had expanded early voting, which repubs blocked, they would have swung red.

There will be some controversy over how accurate the census is regarding covid deaths. Florida will keep its current EV count despite general acknowledgement that its population has greatly decreased. I will also be an opportune time to gerrymander based on census data knowing that actual district population is quite different as a result of covid deaths.

Remember when people were debating what does or does not constitute a concentration camp a year or two ago?

I predict that within the next two months they’ll be debating what does or does not constitute a mass grave.

31.1 Barack Obama is arrested and put on trial for investigating Trump's campaign. (Never mind that it won't make any sense, Trump's defenses never held water in the first place.) Will either be as part of the ramp-up to November or shortly after Trump's reelection when he's feeling invincible.
31.1.a Might be Hillary or Biden on trial (instead or in addition to)
31.2 US Unemployment will hit 50 million by August. (Unless the administration starts massively fudging the numbers, like they're doing by avoiding COVID-19 testing.)

32.1 The US's efforts at containment fail, the re-openings are a disaster, and at least 200,000 are dead by October 1st.
32.2 The EU extends it's travel ban against US travelers, on January 1, 2021 Americans still won't be able to travel to Europe (with some exceptions).
32.3 In a large number of states, most grade schools and some high schools open in the fall, and we get better data on the effects on children as millions are infected.
32.4 Groups associated with the Black Lives Matter movement are labeled as terrorists (no matter if they have any actual connection to antifa organizing). FBI sweeps up a bunch of people they accuse as ringleaders. Assassinations are carried out against organizers, either by law enforcement or by vigilantes spurred on by the administration and the mayors of various cities.
32.5 The ongoing protests are the cause rising pressure on politicians, continue past the election, and cause a permanent attitude shift as American culture faces its 400-year reckoning over the ongoing legacy of slavery.
32.6 The next phase of the protests will be marked by counter-violence and counter-counter-violence, as the police and right-wing agitators attack BLM protesters and some protesters start to organize to defend themselves. This will cause much yelling online.
32.7 The media won't be interested in the massive ongoing protests until something burns down again. Or possibly if a bunch of people get shot.
32.8 Between the Facebook relatives yelling at each other over whether Black Americans are protesting in the right way against being killed and the continued presence of the virus causing a lot of people to cancel the gathering entirely, your Thanksgiving will suck.
32.9 Due to the large number of mail-in or absentee ballots, the results in many election races won't be known until December. (The presidency will either be an obvious landslide or bitterly contested until January 22nd.)
32.10 A rising political issue in 2021 is calls to modify the 13th amendment.

US residents are blocked from participating in or attending the 2022 Olympics because we still don't have our sh*t together.

When we look back at this point, I think we're going to say that:
33.1. We were already in full-blown fascism in July.
33.2. The odds of collapse and revolution happening in the future were over 50% by the end of July.
33.2a. (Understanding of odds will be skewed once thing actually happen/don't happen: Trump genuinely had a 30% chance of winning but still won; natural 20s do happen. The popular view of the odds will be wildly off base from whatever the actual odds were.)
33.3. If we have a civil war it'll look nothing like the previous Civil War with clearly divided states and will instead look really weird from an American perspective, because there aren't any clean geographic divisions. Other countries that have had more recent civil breakdowns will think it feels familiar, though.
33.3a. I don't think we'll have a civil war per se, but do anticipate violent attempts to suppress insurrection. (Said insurrection may or may not exist. You think they're going to need an actual antifa to justify murdering people?)
33.3b. Most of the career military will try to avoid getting involved for as long as possible.
33.3c. If the military does get involved, the Constitution is basically done for and we're going to have to completely rework the thing.

I'm thinking of this as from-the-perspective-of-a-historian-in-2050, but for the sake of current predictions let's say we'll check back on it the end of 2021?