[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Robear wrote:

Let's try to keep numbering Prediction posts so we can sort them out later. Sort of self-indexing.

Also, please avoid sweeping predictions or predictions that will not be testable in our lifetimes. Let's focus this on specific *political* predictions, rather than any old thing that comes along.

Lastly, try to add context for words that could be misinterpreted later. Don't assume that wonk language or linguistic shortcuts will have meaning 5 years from now.

Sorry - my last prediction is my worst case scenario nightmare which sadly could come to pass within the lifetime of our grandchildren. Willing to stand by my top 4 and can further refine if you need exact time frames or details.

1. The Baltic States are screwed.. Russia will within the next few months begin to pressure Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. NATO status will be irrelevant, because the trouble will be in the form of Russia finding locals who will begin agitating, and Russia will supply military assistance similar to what happened in Ukraine. When the governments ask for assistance, Trump will say this is an internal matter, and Article 5 does not apply. The rest of NATO simply does not have the capacity to project power into that part of the world, and the Baltic States are swallowed in the Russian orbit and functionality cease being independent, sovereign states. The U.S.' position as a reliable, trustworthy ally is fatally ruined and never recovers. NATO remains an alliance in name only, and essentially disintegrates into a Western Europe-only alliance. As a form of self-preservation, more states try to gain their own nuclear weapons, significantly reducing the future safety of the planet.

2.We are at war with Iran by the summer of 2017.. The treaty to suspend Iran's nuclear program is seen as a major accomplishment of Obama, and will not be allowed to stand. The new administration will disavow the agreement and begin demanding concessions and inspections and a whole series of patently insulting requests, and this will lead Iran to restart their program. There will be an air campaign, followed by boots on the ground, followed by an extended U.S. presence as we try to just take their oil for ourselves to try to shore up our own economy. This destroys the last stable state in the area, essentially meaning the kind of chaos we see in Syria extends to the entire region.

3. The U.S. pivots away from Pakistan and towards India.. India is experiencing its own rise of nationalistic, right-wing authoritarianism, and our odds of remaining friendly with Islamic states under a Trump administration seen aggressively bad. With us no longer in Pakistan and the balance of support shifting, a newly-expansionist India aggressively moves to military conflict to try to resolve the Kashmir issue once and for all. War breaks out between two nuclear-armed states, and I think there's a terrifyingly good chance of the nuclear genie being let out of the bottle.

jdzappa wrote:

Sorry - my last prediction is my worst case scenario nightmare which sadly could come to pass within the lifetime of our grandchildren. Willing to stand by my top 4 and can further refine if you need exact time frames or details.

Not for me. Think of me as the librarian. I just want to make sure that when people come back here in a few years, there's a consistent format and the ability to quickly find "that prediction I made, I think it was like number 12 or so", rather than have to hunt through all sorts of discussions and such.

Also, by being specific, predictions are more easily confirmed.

1.) Trump will not run for reelection. He will declare victory and that he's saved America and go start Trump TV instead.

1. No matter what kind of disaster befalls the US economy, regardless of the wars we fight, irrespective of the deaths caused by his pathological policies, Trump will leave office *vastly* more wealthy than he is now. Forbes in October estimated his net worth at $3.7 billion. I'll just pull a number out of the air and say he'll be worth an estimated $16 billion at the end of the first term. If he manages a second term I can't even begin to guess how much more he'll be able to line his pockets.

FeralMonkey wrote:

1. No matter what kind of disaster befalls the US economy, regardless of the wars we fight, irrespective of the deaths caused by his pathological policies, Trump will leave office *vastly* more wealthy than he is now. Forbes in October estimated his net worth at $3.7 billion. I'll just pull a number out of the air and say he'll be worth an estimated $16 billion at the end of the first term. If he manages a second term I can't even begin to guess how much more he'll be able to line his pockets.

Predictions #3: Snow Crash #1: Trump will be worth at least a trillion dollars by 2024

"There's money in the storage compartment in front of you," Ng says.
Y.T. opens the glove compartment, as anyone else would call it, and finds a thick bundle of worn-out, dirty, trillion-dollar bills. Ed Meeses.

"Jeez, couldn't you get any Gippers? This is kind of bulky."

"This is more the kind of thing that a Kourier would pay with."

"Because we're all pond scum, right?"

"No comment."

"What is this, a quadrillion dollars?"

"One-and-a-half quadrillion. Inflation, you know."

A major intelligence failure in a Trump administration will result in a successful terrorist attack on American soil. This will provide the political capital necessary to invade an uninvolved country (Iran? North Korea?) with a resulting military quagmire and humanitarian disaster. The country will be shocked by this and all political dissent will be shouted down or intimidated with deadly threats as "unpatriotic". Trump will ride this wave of bloodlust into a second term as president and use it as a pretense to drastically curtail civil liberties.

1) The Wall will be started, but never completed. The project will collapse in a quagmire of corruption, incompetence, and a sudden, belated realization by the Trump administration that large-scale unauthorized immigration across the Mexican border no longer exists.

2) Marijuana will become legal for recreational use in the majority of U.S. states within five years. There was some (unfounded) concern about a Federal backlash against states that legalized marijuana during the Obama administration; the Trump administration will implicitly ratify the Obama administration's "benign neglect" policy with regard to marijuana and revenue-desperate states will rapidly follow Colorado and Washington's lead.

3) Trump will try to drum up support for starting another war, probably with Iran, and fail. U.S. involvement in Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Yemen will continue and expand, but will produce nothing but high costs in both blood and treasure and eventually wind down with no clear results. The war-weary and economically struggling American public will have no interest in Trump's plans for Iran.

4) The gun control debate will quietly disappear from the American political landscape and will not return for at least another generation, if ever. The core support for gun control will collapse as liberals and progressives arm themselves with sheepish but determined looks. The argument that only the government should have guns will vanish like a wisp of smoke from American political discourse, and at least one "blood of patriots" quote will come from a previously staunchly pro-gun-control source. There will be a scandal where someone is denied a gun license or concealed carry permit by corrupt local law enforcement because of their race or sexual orientation. That person will get hurt or killed in a hate crime, and liberal legal organizations will suddenly find themselves in Second Amendment lawsuits.

Paleocon wrote:

A major intelligence failure in a Trump administration will result in a successful terrorist attack on American soil. This will provide the political capital necessary to invade an uninvolved country (Iran? North Korea?) with a resulting military quagmire and humanitarian disaster. The country will be shocked by this and all political dissent will be shouted down or intimidated with deadly threats as "unpatriotic". Trump will ride this wave of bloodlust into a second term as president and use it as a pretense to drastically curtail civil liberties.

It's not much of a "prediction" if it's 100% certain. Might as well say the sun will come up tomorrow or it's going to snow "up to three inches or more."

G1: The Trump administration will prove to be largely ineffective.

Between lack of expertise, under staffing, infighting (including leaks of information aimed at discrediting other factions in the Trump administration), and Trump's focus being on his ego, wealth, and brand, I think it is reasonable to predict that the executive branch over the next four years does not get much done.

Edit (for below):
I think the metrics are: How many initiatives that are started get abandoned, how many campaign promises go unfulfilled, how many conservative leaning "information" site negative articles appear (give this about two years), and how many news items appear with one part of the executive branch smearing another (I think the inevitable feud between Priebus and Bannon will be the starting point).

How do you measure that ineffectiveness, Garrcia? Can you add some explicit benchmarks for success or failure in certain areas? (Geez, I sound like a manager on review day...)

Prediction: Within the first month of his presidency, Trump will have the National Guard attack the DAPL protesters

The length of time between when Hitler was elected and when Germany passed the first round of segregation laws = 4 months.

4 months of pre-internet time. So that's what, 6 weeks now?

We're two weeks in. Buckle up.

Gremlin Predictions #4:

1. Trump will use his complaints about the amount Boeing is spending on the new Air Force One to cancel the contract and replace it with his own private jet, which he will lease to the government for a reasonable exorbitant fee. (Yes, this will mean that he'll be flying in a plane without all those safeguards, though maybe he'll charge them for installing some equipment.)

2. Within the next four years, a fake news story will radicalize someone to take violent action, leading to one or more deaths. The news will not refer to it as an act of terrorism, and the perpetrator's neighbors or significant other will talk about how he was harmless and wouldn't hurt anyone.

3. Teen pregnancy will be one of the rhetorical justifications for tighter restrictions on abortion, even as teen pregnancy falls to new lows.

4. One of the recounts will turn up some discrepancies, but not enough to flip the electoral college. Some people will still hold out hope right up until January 20th, only to feel crushed all over again when they wake up on the 21st. Salon or Slate will write a thinkpiece about how this is somehow actually a good thing.

Edit: How did I do?

Spoiler:

4. The recounts didn't change anything, the electoral college didn't change anything, and there were a few holdouts until the 20th, though I don't think it was as widespread as I was thinking. The Women's March on the 21st cleared away a lot of anguish, at least online. So I got the first part mostly right, but was too pessimistic on the last part.

Trump will try and fire the fed chief.

Prediction 1: Hillary pass away before Trump's first term. Cause will not be due any sort of attempt on her life, but a continuation of the types of health issues she had during the campaign.

Prediction 2: Trump decides not to run for re-election.

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

Prediction 4: Unisex bathrooms will see a sharp growth in popularity in the next few years. The next few years will see a dramatic increase in existing bathrooms being converted to unisex and new buildings having them. This will happen at much higher rate in the big cities, with slower adoption in rural areas, but it will increase everywhere.

Prediction 5: Trump will be the victim of a failed assassination attempt during his first term.

Prediction 6: Democrats will nominate their own "celebrity" for the 2020 election. Someone like a George Clooney or Matt Damon.

Prediction 7: Obamacare will be be repealed and replaced. Something similar to Paul Ryan's plan will be passed. This will not result in the cost of health care going down for individuals and their families.

MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 1: Hillary dies of natural causes before the end of Trump's first term.

Prediction 2: Trump decides not to run for re-election.

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

Prediction 4: Unisex bathrooms will see a sharp growth in popularity in the next few years. The next few years will see a dramatic increase in existing bathrooms being converted to unisex and new buildings having them. This will happen at much higher rate in the big cities, with slower adoption in rural areas, but it will increase everywhere.

Prediction 5: Trump will be the victim of a failed assassination attempt during his first term.

Prediction 6: Democrats will nominate their own "celebrity" for the 2020 election. Someone like a George Clooney or Matt Damon.

Prediction 7: Obamacare will be be repealed and replaced. Something similar to Paul Ryan's plan will be passed. This will not result in the cost of health care going down for individuals and their families.

Aside from #5 (which I don't want to happen) I would say your stuff is pretty optimistic and I could live with most of it.

Personally I would like #7 not to be true because I believe running the country is complex and I would like to see some who has experience.

RoughneckGeek wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

This isn't even the strategy of the anti-LGBT folks at this point. It was a "states' rights issue" up until some states started allowing it, at which point, all of the various groups shifted to national again. With a Supreme Court decision in place granting marriage equality, the only place it can be contested now is the national level. Meanwhile, we're seeing the effects of the T part of LGBT equality playing out at the state level now and it's not going so great.

Prediction 1: Hillary dies of natural causes before the end of Trump's first term.

This one also confuses me. She's 69, not like 80 something.

Prediction 7: Obamacare will be be repealed and replaced. Something similar to Paul Ryan's plan will be passed. This will not result in the cost of health care going down for individuals and their families.

Only question I have is with what? There's been no serious legislative talk of replacing it with anything, just repealing Obamacare. Though, I'd add, for whatever their "solution" is, that cost increases for healthcare will resume their previous continued acceleration in growth (going down isn't even on the table, seeing as how Obamacare was designed to slow that growth, not lower costs).

Demosthenes wrote:
Prediction 7: Obamacare will be be repealed and replaced. Something similar to Paul Ryan's plan will be passed. This will not result in the cost of health care going down for individuals and their families.

Only question I have is with what? There's been no serious legislative talk of replacing it with anything, just repealing Obamacare. Though, I'd add, for whatever their "solution" is, that cost increases for healthcare will resume their previous continued acceleration in growth (going down isn't even on the table, seeing as how Obamacare was designed to slow that growth, not lower costs).

I'll go with my own extended prediction on this:

Obamacare will be "repeal and delayed" until after the mid-terms because R's aren't stupid, realize it's goddamn electoral suicide to actually take healthcare away from people, and they want to retain the ability to gerrymander the country back to the Middle Ages come 2020's redistricting. Then they'll pull the trigger after the mid-terms, when they know that the clusterf*ck that is the Trump Administration has handed the Executive to literally anything with a D after it's name in 2020, and that further damage at that point is irrelevant.

I clarified my Hillary prediction. I initially used natural causes because I wanted to avoid anyone thinking I was predicting Putin or someone else was going to kill her.

RoughneckGeek wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

Improvement means that more states will recognize marriage for LGBT couples.

MattDaddy wrote:
RoughneckGeek wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

Improvement means that more states will recognize marriage for LGBT couples.

I want to live in the world you predict.

MattDaddy wrote:
RoughneckGeek wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

Improvement means that more states will recognize marriage for LGBT couples.

Obergefell v. Hodges means that all states recognize LGBT marriages right now.

Overturning that will, by necessity, lower that number.

Considering that just about every president in modern history has had some failed attempt on their life, I think that #5 is an easy one.

I spoke with a buddy on the White House detail with USSS who said that the number of fence jumpers increased by at least 400% between Bush and Obama and the number of incidents involving deadly weapons was even more dramatic (he was actually in the line of fire during the AK incident).

It is pretty much just a given that crazy people are going to be crazy.

I mean something along the lines of Reagan, where he was actually shot. How about, an attempt that will injure him, but not kill him?

MattDaddy wrote:
RoughneckGeek wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 3: LGBT rights continue to improve over the next 4 years. Marriage rights will be left to states, and the ones that go to court will result in those rights being upheld. Trump will not move to stop any of these.

I don't understand this one. "Marriage rights will be left to the states" is a direct contradiction to your premise that rights continue to improve. So what is your metric here? What is improvement?

Improvement means that more states will recognize marriage for LGBT couples.

All states do right now, there's basically nowhere to go but down. That's the result of the Supreme Court decision. That said, there's also a myriad of other LGBT equality issues which are already at the state level that still need to be addressed (housing discrimination, job discrimination, etc... etc...). But given NC's legislature apparently trying to do everything they can to block the governor-elect's powers before he even takes office, I doubt this is going to improve in any state that wasn't already pretty dedicated to issues of equality before.

MattDaddy wrote:

I clarified my Hillary prediction. I initially used natural causes because I wanted to avoid anyone thinking I was predicting Putin or someone else was going to kill her.

She got sick, once... and was campaigning through most of it. She also released her medical records and a final checkup from her doctor. The day after the election, she was met by a hiker on a long path through the woods, apparently hiking without issue.

Meanwhile, we got a Trump letterhead "note from the doctor" that Trump would be the healthiest man to ever run for President, because apparently Trump temporarily forgot how good of shape Obama is in... then something released to Doctor Oz for him to discuss on his TV show. I dunno, I think it's far more likely, given his apparent habits and lack of exercise, that Trump would be the one to have any health issues over the next 4 years rather than Clinton.

I dunno, I've just seen a lot of "well, we can't lock her up, but she was never going to survive the next 4 years" as some kind of weird "why you shouldn't have voted for her" argument or why it doesn't matter that Trump has basically said he said that to get votes. But, flip side, I heard the same argument from a lot of BernieOrBust idiot friends of mine, apparently unaware that they were trying to elect someone even older (and thus, statistically more likely to die of natural causes than Clinton could have been).

MOD NOTE
Please refer to the scope of this thread; in-depth discussions of predictions should go elsewhere.

Thanks, Dee, I was away and could not follow the thread.

Gremlin Predictions #5: Electoral College
Just under the wire.

1. There will be a record number of unfaithful electors. (This only requires a handful.)
2. It won't matter; the EC will still confirm Trump.
3. There will be at least one other last-ditch procedural idea to stop Trump before the inauguration. None of the major politicians will follow up on it, partially because it will be even more desperate.

Edit: How did I do?

Spoiler:

#1: True: There were seven, five of which deserted Clinton). Though technically, Horace Greeley had more unfaithful electors, but he was losing anyway and also he was dead at the time.
#2: True! Before defections, Trump had a lead of 37; the Electoral College confirmed his election.
#3: False, unless I missed something. Or you want to count all the people not showing up for the inauguration, which I don't.