[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Shadout wrote:

While I definitely agree about Germany, and EU parliament, since France has a runoff presidential election it does not seem far-fetched Le Pen could become president, even with fairly low actual support? As long as enough people dislike the one alternative even more.

On the other hand, the Danish version of Le Pen managed to keep all other parties in a stranglehold for 20 years, despite never getting more than 10-20% of the vote, and never having been in a government themselves. Even if they finally got shattered (by even more extremist parties stealing their voters...) in our last election, the influence they have had on our politics for two decades is still crazy.
And while Sweden has avoided that, they have also struggled to create majorities when 10-20% of the parliament is not counted.

I'll eat my hat if Le Pen ever gets over 40% in a run off vote. Macron has been disappointing and Le Pen is still trundling around the mid 20s. Macron literally just has to stay standing and he'll get a next term. But, hey, I've been wrong before

On the multiparty governments, this is just a fact of life now. Balkanisation of politics is just going to happen in the information age. Even the plurality system in the UK are finding ways of having parties within parties. The big tent is dead and I for one am glad that it is going.

Axon wrote:

I'll eat my hat if Le Pen ever gets over 40% in a run off vote. Macron has been disappointing and Le Pen is still trundling around the mid 20s. Macron literally just has to stay standing and he'll get a next term. But, hey, I've been wrong before :)

We are far from their election, and I dont think French second round polls are know for being great, but two 2021 polls seem to show a very close race compared to last time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_F...

Those are similar enough to 2017. Sure she'll pick up some from Les Republicans but many more will just stay at home or vote for Macron. You'd have to admit it would be a huge shock to see many on the left in France voting for NF?

I mean, as a centre right politician Macron has positioned himself perfectly to be the default President. Only change I see is the Socialist's pull a candidate out of the hat that can campaign like Macron did.

Shadout wrote:
Axon wrote:

I've banged on about this over and over but both Germany and France were never faced any read chance of AfD gaining any influence or Le Pen becoming President.

While I definitely agree about Germany, and EU parliament, since France has a runoff presidential election it does not seem far-fetched Le Pen could become president, even with fairly low actual support? As long as enough people dislike the one alternative even more.

No, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Le Pen could become president. Not in 2002, not in 2017. They never get more 22% of votes (which is still too much, I'll definitely grant you that).

Axon's right. Macron's going to get a second term, no matter how much of a sh*tty job he's been doing (le féminisme, grande cause du quinquennat, mon cul, oui...). There's no viable candidate on the left as of Feb 2021.

Eleima wrote:

Axon's right. Macron's going to get a second term, no matter how much of a sh*tty job he's been doing (le féminisme, grande cause du quinquennat, mon cul, oui...). There's no viable candidate on the left as of Feb 2021.

When David Cameron called the referendum I would never have thought the UK would vote to leave the EU, and now look where we are.

If you’re too complacent about this then that’s how people of Le Pen’s ilk get in. And once they are in they’ll do everything in their power to stay. Democracy be damned.

Eleima wrote:

No, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Le Pen could become president. Not in 2002, not in 2017. They never get more 22% of votes (which is still too much, I'll definitely grant you that).

She got 34% in 2017?

Shadout wrote:
Eleima wrote:

No, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Le Pen could become president. Not in 2002, not in 2017. They never get more 22% of votes (which is still too much, I'll definitely grant you that).

She got 34% in 2017?

I was referring to the first round, not the second.

Sorbicol wrote:
Eleima wrote:

Axon's right. Macron's going to get a second term, no matter how much of a sh*tty job he's been doing (le féminisme, grande cause du quinquennat, mon cul, oui...). There's no viable candidate on the left as of Feb 2021.

When David Cameron called the referendum I would never have thought the UK would vote to leave the EU, and now look where we are.
If you’re too complacent about this then that’s how people of Le Pen’s ilk get in. And once they are in they’ll do everything in their power to stay. Democracy be damned.

No one is getting complacent. I've voted in every election since I was 18.

Eleima wrote:

No one is getting complacent. I've voted in every election since I was 18.

It's not you Eleima, its..... everyone else. Especially those who don't usually engage with politics. Given the lack of representation most people in FPTP / 2 party systems get, it's hardly a surprise that so many are utterly disenfranchised. I suspect there are very very many people in France who regard a choice between Macron and Le Pen as no choice at all.

I don't they'd be wrong either.

Eleima wrote:

I was referring to the first round, not the second.

My point was that even if "only" 22% supports here, it seems possible to get 50+% (of the people who bother to vote) in a two-candidate second round (against Macron or someone else). But hopefully it does not happen.

Btw, interesting that older voters voted less for Le Pen. Certainly the opposite of many other populist racist movements.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_F...
Macron Le Pen
18–24 years old 66% 34%
25–34 years old 60% 40%
35–49 years old 57% 43%
50–59 years old 64% 36%
60–69 years old 70% 30%
70 or older 78% 22%

The oldest group was children during or immediately after WWII, and so remember what far right groups like that can lead to.

At least that's how many old people I know here in western Germany seem to think.

Sorbicol wrote:

I suspect there are very very many people in France who regard a choice between Macron and Le Pen as no choice at all.
I don't they'd be wrong either.

Oh, for sure, I'm one of them. It's no choice at all, but if that's the one I've got, then I'm still going to cast that ballot against Le Pen, not for Macron, just like I did back in 2017.

Shadout wrote:
Eleima wrote:

I was referring to the first round, not the second.

My point was that even if "only" 22% supports here, it seems possible to get 50+% (of the people who bother to vote) in a two-candidate second round (against Macron or someone else). But hopefully it does not happen.

Btw, interesting that older voters voted less for Le Pen. Certainly the opposite of many other populist racist movements.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_F...
Macron Le Pen
18–24 years old 66% 34%
25–34 years old 60% 40%
35–49 years old 57% 43%
50–59 years old 64% 36%
60–69 years old 70% 30%
70 or older 78% 22%

Ugh... Can't argue with numbers and those numbers are just DEPRESSING.

(Apologies, this is the Brexit thread and I've gone completely off topic, so let's go back to mocking our friend across the Channel <3 )

I would assume that talking about the arguments supporting Brexit and the possible fallout are entirely within the scope of the thread. If Le Pen could point at any successes of Brexit she would, that's for sure.

She can’t but that won’t keep her from trying to spin it to her advantage.