[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

The BBC is takes its cues from the government. It tries to avoid the appearance of bias by steering its editorial line to the middle ground of the newspapers. It hasn’t changed in this over all the years I have been aware of it. What has happened is the government has become worse and the Tory press unhinged. The middle ground isn’t what it was. I trust the BBC news on anything which holds no domestic political interest.

I like the FT, mainly because they have a very definite reality bias. I have seen people call the FINANCIAL TIMES lefty in recent years, but it’s mainly that they audience does actually read it to know what is going on (rather than cheerleading).

The Guardian is still a reasonable paper, despite a lot people hating on it for not being support enough of our saviour JC. They are still centre/centre-left and John Harris is still must read to understand England outside of the London bubble.

The Irish Times is great but there best stuff is behind the paywall (the FT too but it’s open via google).

I respectfully disagree, DoveBrown. Historically the BBC has had a complex relationship with the governments it fell under. I grew up with the BBC during the 80s' and 90s' and it's certainly far from the entity it is today. Back then It went so far as to even circumvent censorship laws to broadcast interviews of terrorists (rightly so) and clashed repeatedly with the then Thatcher and Major government over several issues. Recently we've had the sight of James O'Brien being very publicly pushed out of the BBC because he challenged Brexit talking points and John Humphrys allowed to stay and repeat a list of long-discredited right wing tropes.

The BBC has been kowtowed by the Murdoch media and a lack of institutional support. These days all views are treated as equally valid and no position is really ever challenged to the point that uncomfortable truths are not presented. Of course it was the Hutton Inquiry that started the rot. Not a fatal blow but a metaphorical torpedo to the rudder that left old Auntie exposed to those willing to take it down.

Also, the Guardian is poor. I do like some of it's columnists like John Harris, Nesrine Malik and others but it's reportage is very suspect. When your economics editor produces this article with a litany of falsehoods with a healthy dose of delusion you being to see why. Like I said, case by case basis beyond the FT.

It's a problem that good journalism is going behind a paywall while the awful stuff is free. At this point I think all news outlets should go completely paywalled and anything that isn't is should be treated as poor qaulity.

"Der Spiegel", The Mirror.

And the fallout begins.

More and more people in Scotland believe our aspirations can best be met by continuing to contribute to the shared endeavour and solidarity that the EU represents. Because of Brexit, we can now only do this as an independent member state in our own right.

We have been inside the EU family of nations for nearly 50 years. We didn’t want to leave and we hope to join you again soon as an equal partner as we face the opportunities and challenges of the future together.

Turns out Gibraltar was forgotten about and had to make a last minute deal with Spain. Turns out Spain is now calling the shots as well.

Q. Does it mean that the last word on whether or not someone enters Gibraltar will be in Spain?

R. Of course, because the management of entry control to the Schengen area belongs to Spain.

Well, they certainly took back control.

Is it a change that she keeps saying what she has always said, and would say, even if there was no brexit?
I hope Scotland manages to get away from UK at this point, but it doesn't seem like there is any path for that?

Btw, is support for independence going up, or is it still basically around those 50%?

Shadout wrote:

Is it a change that she keeps saying what she has always said, and would say, even if there was no brexit?
I hope Scotland manages to get away from UK at this point, but it doesn't seem like there is any path for that?

Btw, is support for independence going up, or is it still basically around those 50%?

I think the current opinion polls are nearly 60% in favour of indepedence, however Independence for Scotland is dependent on the UK Parliament allowing another referendum.

So long as the Conservatives control the UK Parliament they will never allow another Scottish independence referendum. Labour are extremely unlikely to allow it either, and regardless of whatever perfectly reasonable justifications there are for holding another referendum, politically for the UK parties none of them trump the fact they’ve had that referendum in recent political history, and Scotland said no.

The SNP’s choices here are limited. They could try and force it I guess, but Parliament would view that as a delegitimisation of the Scottish Parliament and probably return direct rule to Westminster, no matter how cross that would make the Scottish population. All they have to do it point to how Spain dealt with the Catalan independence attempt a couple of years back and say ‘if they can do it so can we’.

It’s a hell of a lot more complicated than that for sure, and don’t think I’m not very sympathetic to Scotland, but as far as the Conservatives and Labour are concerned they’ll consider that question has been dealt with - Labour will probably be a little more diplomatic about it though! And no matter how much Sturgeon doesn’t like it, there’s not really a lot she can do about it. The UK parties can basically ride it out.

Axon wrote:

Turns out Gibraltar was forgotten about and had to make a last minute deal with Spain. Turns out Spain is now calling the shots as well.

Q. Does it mean that the last word on whether or not someone enters Gibraltar will be in Spain?

R. Of course, because the management of entry control to the Schengen area belongs to Spain.

Well, they certainly took back control.

Now that's a new level of ineptitude!

Axon wrote:

Turns out Gibraltar was forgotten about and had to make a last minute deal with Spain. Turns out Spain is now calling the shots as well.

Q. Does it mean that the last word on whether or not someone enters Gibraltar will be in Spain?

R. Of course, because the management of entry control to the Schengen area belongs to Spain.

Well, they certainly took back control.

Gibraltar voted something like 94% to stay in the EU, so they're probably quite happy with the arrangement, overall.

Sorbicol wrote:
Shadout wrote:

Is it a change that she keeps saying what she has always said, and would say, even if there was no brexit?
I hope Scotland manages to get away from UK at this point, but it doesn't seem like there is any path for that?

Btw, is support for independence going up, or is it still basically around those 50%?

I think the current opinion polls are nearly 60% in favour of indepedence, however Independence for Scotland is dependent on the UK Parliament allowing another referendum.

So long as the Conservatives control the UK Parliament they will never allow another Scottish independence referendum. Labour are extremely unlikely to allow it either, and regardless of whatever perfectly reasonable justifications there are for holding another referendum, politically for the UK parties none of them trump the fact they’ve had that referendum in recent political history, and Scotland said no.

The SNP’s choices here are limited. They could try and force it I guess, but Parliament would view that as a delegitimisation of the Scottish Parliament and probably return direct rule to Westminster, no matter how cross that would make the Scottish population. All they have to do it point to how Spain dealt with the Catalan independence attempt a couple of years back and say ‘if they can do it so can we’.

It’s a hell of a lot more complicated than that for sure, and don’t think I’m not very sympathetic to Scotland, but as far as the Conservatives and Labour are concerned they’ll consider that question has been dealt with - Labour will probably be a little more diplomatic about it though! And no matter how much Sturgeon doesn’t like it, there’s not really a lot she can do about it. The UK parties can basically ride it out.

Much like the Home Rule Movement (almost de facto independence) in Ireland, hung parliaments will resolve this issue. Time won't. The genie is now out of the bottle and I cannot see it going back in now.

One key difference this time around that works in the SNP's favour is they are not alone like the IPP (Irish Parliamentary Party) was. Care to bet Sinn Fein won't take their seats to so they can support each other in referendums and borders polls? Plaid Cymru are certainly staking out a position. Not a huge difference but each seat drives the parliament further away from single majority. Or do you think Labour and the Tories are about to manufacture thumping majorities forever? I don't

It's clear now that the tectonic plates of the United Kingdom are shifting and at this point it's about minimising the fallout. Waiting it out didn't work before and I don't see how it will this time around.

Catalonia is a problem but the difference here is Scotland is now out of the EU. Catalonia isn't. Spain can call Catalonia's bluff on this one because they won't declare independence and remove their membership of the EU. Westminster has removed one of the biggest argument against Scottish independence in one stroke. I see that situation as entirely in the SNP's favour and not the other way around.

Axon wrote:

Much like the Home Rule Movement (almost de facto independence) in Ireland, hung parliaments will resolve this issue. Time won't. The genie is now out of the bottle and I cannot see it going back in now.

One key difference this time around that works in the SNP's favour is they are not alone like the IPP (Irish Parliamentary Party) was. Care to bet Sinn Fein won't take their seats to so they can support each other in referendums and borders polls? Plaid Cymru are certainly staking out a position. Not a huge difference but each seat drives the parliament further away from single majority. Or do you think Labour and the Tories are about to manufacture thumping majorities forever? I don't

It's clear now that the tectonic plates of the United Kingdom are shifting and at this point it's about minimising the fallout. Waiting it out didn't work before and I don't see how it will this time around.

Catalonia is a problem but the difference here is Scotland is now out of the EU. Catalonia isn't. Spain can call Catalonia's bluff on this one because they won't declare independence and remove their membership of the EU. Westminster has removed one of the biggest argument against Scottish independence in one stroke. I see that situation as entirely in the SNP's favour and not the other way around.

Oh the Tory party are in the process of making sure they do get majorities in future elections, and probably diminishing the weight of the SNP in the UK parliament into the process. As they are currently the English party they'll probably manage this for quite a while - certainly long enough for the whole Brexit debacle to recede somewhere into the distance and become much less of an issue for them to have to deal with directly.

The Tectonic plates of the UK parliament aren't shifting at all - as far as the Tories are concerned the Welsh, Northern Irish and the Scottish have got have much autonomy as they are willing to let them have and that's it - their strategy moving forward will be to completely ignore them because, honestly, they are an irrelevance to them. The SNP shout a lot in the UK parliament for sure, but beyond lip service they have zero influence. Don't underestimate the Tory willingness to throw everyone else under a bus if it suits their needs - and throwing Wales, Scotland and NI now they don't need the DUP under that bus will be absolutely fine with them.

The situation for Catalonia is utterly irrelevant, what is is that the Spanish slapped it down so hard and the EU did nothing about it - that's all that they need to know. The SNP can bleat as much as they like about it to the EU, the problem they've got is that the EU aren't going to interfere with what is a UK sovereign issue after everything that's happened over the last 5 years and they've got nobody else to turn to.

Sinn Fein will never take their seats so long as they have to swear fealty to the UK Crown, and Plaid Cyrmu are a local interest group. I've lived in Wales and nobody there apart from the nutters in Northern Snowdonia are daft enough to think Wales can "make it" outside of the UK. They don't like it much for sure, but they sure as hell know it.

I'm not defending or opposing anything here by the way, but you are suggesting a complexity to the UK political landscape that just doesn't exist outside the fevered dreams of the more fanciful political commentators. It's not than anything you say is wrong, it's just that nobody in the Conservative party - even the moderates such are they are - give a damn because, to be honest, they don't need to. And if they don't give a damn it doesn't matter. Labour are far more interested in fighting amongst themselves than they are providing viable political opposition, and the Lib Dems will never recover from Nick Clegg selling out and making a deal with David Cameron, and sadly for most of the rest of the UK, the English vote Conservative in their droves.

Sad, but true. It'll take an English revolution for things to change, and that ain't happening any time soon unless Brexit really does go really, really bad. Which is far more likely from where I'm sitting than anything else I've read lately.

As a thought experiment, what would be the economic implications for an independent Scotland? Is there sufficient industry to provide the necessary tax-base for health and welfare programs (or programmes, if you prefer--as an Englishman who has lived in America now for many years, I swerve unapologetically between spellings and idioms!)? How would they access the EU market primarily? Land-bridge via England (and the inherent customs issues) or via shipping?

I can entirely appreciate the desire for independence. I'm curious, however, as to how it would actually work in practice.

I take your point about Plaid Cyrmu, Sorbicol, but I'll doubt the Tories will be maintaining majorities for much longer and I seriously doubt the people of Scotland of leaving this one alone at this point. Genuinely believe this is a sooner or later issue.

And Sinn Féin (I should probably include the fada ) will take their seats if they can realistically move closer to a getting a border poll and possibly a united Ireland. Oath or no oath. I can 100% guarantee it.

Interesting question would be what is the Alliance and SDLP's stances on the Scottish Independance.

Coldstream wrote:

As a thought experiment, what would be the economic implications for an independent Scotland? Is there sufficient industry to provide the necessary tax-base for health and welfare programs (or programmes, if you prefer--as an Englishman who has lived in America now for many years, I swerve unapologetically between spellings and idioms!)? How would they access the EU market primarily? Land-bridge via England (and the inherent customs issues) or via shipping?

I can entirely appreciate the desire for independence. I'm curious, however, as to how it would actually work in practice.

On revenue, Coldstream, the 2014 Scottish referendum was run quite well (unlike the Brexit one) and many of the research papers, reports and what not that were produced for it are still available. You can get stuck into those :). But the answer is a sort of yes. Well, is enough that the referendum wasn't really fought on this issue. The question that tripped up the SNP was what currency the Scottish will use. That's the real trick. That all said, the economic argument is moot. Again Brexit will allow the SNP side step this issue as well.

As for the other questions, nobody can give you an answer just yet. We here in Ireland a dealing with the fallout of this from hauliers to people ordering from Amazon. Direct ferries combined with a land bridge system involving sealed containers seem to be the current choice by Irish exporter and importers.

Axon wrote:

I take your point about Plaid Cyrmu, Sorbicol, but I'll doubt the Tories will be maintaining majorities for much longer and I seriously doubt the people of Scotland of leaving this one alone at this point. Genuinely believe this is a sooner or later issue.

And Sinn Féin (I should probably include the fada ) will take their seats if they can realistically move closer to a getting a border poll and possibly a united Ireland. Oath or no oath. I can 100% guarantee it.

Interesting question would be what is the Alliance and SDLP's stances on the Scottish Independance.

This should tell you all you need to know about what Boris thinks about another Scottish Independence referendum. It’s entirely a non-event as far as he and the wider Conservative party are concerned, it was a throw away comment during an interview about the current Covid situation here in UK which is damaging the Conservative party much more than anything to do with Scotland. They just don’t care.

We are in violent agreement that the Tories do not care about Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales. Brexit proved that beyond a shadow of doubt. And I'm certain they will ignore the issue of Scottish Independence for as long as they can.

Welcome to the Brexit, Sir

Somewhat noticeable that some produce - especially fresh fruit juices - are becoming a little scarce at the moment. I feel there’s a lot more disruption to come.

If only somebody warned them.

Either they just don't get it or they are completely dishonest.

In other news, Leave.eu is trying to relocated to Waterford in Ireland so it can retain it domain. It's not going all that well. Domain seems to be down as of now. Can't say I'm not all that upset. Still no wiser were their money comes from. I can guess but proof not there.

Musicians 'failed by government' over EU touring, stars say

Some of the UK's biggest music stars have written to the government demanding action to ensure visa-free touring in the European Union.

Sir Elton John, Liam Gallagher and Nicola Benedetti are among 110 artists who have signed the open letter.

It said they had been "shamefully failed" by the government over post-Brexit travel rules for UK musicians.

The government said the signatories should be asking the EU why they "rejected the sensible UK proposal".

Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden will meet music industry representatives on Wednesday to address their concerns.

IMAGE(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/bf/8f/37/bf8f37640346b539aa17ed572d0e0d8f.jpg)

I know it’s a subreddit but r/BrexitAteMyFace

Sorbicol wrote:

I know it’s a subreddit but r/BrexitAteMyFace

This encapsulates it all, I'd just change "company" to "voters."

Company angry for getting what they voted for

I wonder how many of them were proactive in speaking out against Brexit prior to the vote.

Mr GT Chris wrote:

I wonder how many of them were proactive in speaking out against Brexit prior to the vote.

What, you mean like Roger Daltrey?