[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Axon wrote:

Ode to Joy has been topping the charts in the UK. 54% of voters voted for parties offering a second referendum. I suspect this will be reserved in my lifetime.

It’s going to depend on how things go, and how it impacts people’s day to day lives. If things go precipitously bad yes - eventually. If thing sort of don’t change (which is more or less what I expect) or get gradually worse over an extended period of time, then it might get reversed eventually, but probably not in my life time. If things go well (I’d be astonished but you can’t rule it out) then forget it.

There are other more pressing issues now. Boris is going to make a whole host of changes now that’ll make it very hard to get the Conservatives out of power - changes to constitutional law, (such as it is), changes to constituency boundaries, probably limiting Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish influence in ‘English’ affairs (which will include national interests) and abolishing the fixed term parliament act. All of that will need to be fixed first before we can come back to Europe. That’s going to take a very long time.

I fully expect parts of the UK to rejoin the EU within my lifetime. I'm not holding my breath for the whole thing, though.

And it's official.

With Brexit, the UK will become a "democratic, self-governing, independent and, I hope, proud nation".

But... it never stopped being.... it.... was....

.......I'm going to sit down.

Wow! Crazy that both major political events happened within hours of each other.
Darkest timeline indeed

Sorbicol wrote:

Boris is going to make a whole host of changes now that’ll make it very hard to get the Conservatives out of power - changes to constitutional law, (such as it is), changes to constituency boundaries, probably limiting Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish influence in ‘English’ affairs (which will include national interests) and abolishing the fixed term parliament act.

England prevails.

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Bruce wrote:

I think today will mark the start of a national discovery that the UK is not as big and important as it thinks it is.

I sincerely doubt it. Since the 70s (probably earlier) the British ruling/monied/political class has been utterly divided about whether it should be politically aligned with Europe or with anglophone US interests. Brexit is a huge victory for those who want the UK to be realigned with American geopolitical interests and I doubt they'll spend even a second ringing their hands about how big or important the UK is on the international stage. And it's plainly evident that their palls in the right-wing media will spin whatever is needed to hide/downplay the UK's struggling economy for however long it takes.

Bruce wrote:

It is a total politician line that Brexit is "done" now. They are just starting the clock on the next round of negotiations.

Well this is indeed the case

Axon wrote:

Ode to Joy has been topping the charts in the UK. 54% of voters voted for parties offering a second referendum. I suspect this will be reserved in my lifetime.

If the UK can stay together as a union then you're probably right. If either N.Ireland or Scotland manage to secede then I doubt it.

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

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Sorbicol wrote:

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

Basically, Boris gets all of 2020 to brag, because it (the backstop, trade deals, immigration, et al) doesn't really get real until 2021, right?

Prederick wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

Basically, Boris gets all of 2020 to brag, because it (the backstop, trade deals, immigration, et al) doesn't really get real until 2021, right?

I think that’s true, as far as I can tell nothing is really changing during the ‘transition period’, which ends Dec 31st of this year.

UK unveils 'iconic,' blue post-Brexit passports, made by a French-Dutch company in Poland

CNN wrote:

The British government has unveiled the country's new, blue post-Brexit passports, hailing the return of an "iconic" document that became a thorny issue during the UK's protracted departure from the European Union.

The first dark blue passports, which ditch the burgundy covers used by EU member states, will be issued in early March, Home Secretary Priti Patel announced on Saturday. Patel spoke of her excitement that "the British passport will once again be entwined with our national identity."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously praised the color change as a "wonderful thing" and bemoaned his "sense of personal loss and outrage" when the UK's previous blue passports were "taken away" in 1988.

What neither mentioned, however, was that the new passports are being made by the Franco-Dutch firm Gemalto at its site in Tczew, Poland.

"I actually like the French-designed Polish-printed new UK passport," former Remain-backing MEP Seb Dance said after the launch. "Of course the previous one -- which allowed Brits the right to work, study and retire freely across their own continent -- was probably more useful."

There is quite a bit happening and hard to summarise it all. I've recommended Tony Connelly and Brexit Republic before for those looking for a reasonably non-partisan take on the process. I've also recommended Peter Foster, who is now going to the FT after being the most sensible reporter on the topic while bizarrely working for the Telegraph .

Anyway, the long and short of it we are looking at another cliff edge as the British government seems to want to waste the entire transition period getting out of the withdrawal agreement. Not sure that is the best use of time.

As for policy, we had the Home Sec, Priti Patel, announce a new immigration policy which is far from being implemented by the sounds of it.

Axon wrote:

There is quite a bit happening and hard to summarise it all. I've recommended Tony Connelly and Brexit Republic before for those looking for a reasonably non-partisan take on the process. I've also recommended Peter Foster, who is now going to the FT after being the most sensible reporter on the topic while bizarrely working for the Telegraph .

Anyway, the long and short of it we are looking at another cliff edge as the British government seems to want to waste the entire transition period getting out of the withdrawal agreement. Not sure that is the best use of time.

As for policy, we had the Home Sec, Priti Patel, announce a new immigration policy which is far from being implemented by the sounds of it.

Dominic Cummings is too busy culling the hoards of civil servants at the moment for anything too sensible to come out of central government. A lot of this is smoke screen I think to keep the mobs happy while that process concludes (the civil service are clearly putting up one hell of a fight, bless them) and then they can worry about everything else.

Arise.

I really recommend people start back to listening to Brexit Republic if you want to understand what is what.

Basically we are coming down to decision time for the UK government and we are none the wiser of what they want. If they don't agree to something very soon, we are looking at crash out scenario as there won't be time to complete the process of drawing up and treaty and ratifying it.

One theory is that the UK government wants to crash out in the middle of a recession as it will mask the problems caused by the crash out. Very cynical move but I'm swayed by that theory at this point.

It is the darkest timeline after all. With plenty of people that insist on helping bail water back into the boat.

So, Brexit. After the UK's stunt this week indicating it might break an international treaty, most now think they are going for a no-deal at this point. They'll just sell it as the EU being unflexible and still wanted to "control" the UK.

And I think it will work. All Johnson has is Brexit, as evidence by there handling of anything else, so they are going to make it a divisive issue to shore up their support.

Again, listen to Brexit Republic for some excellent roundup and analysis but it really seems 2020 will have a delightful sting in the tail for us anyway.

Axon wrote:

So, Brexit. After the UK's stunt this week indicating it might break an international treaty, most now think they are going for a no-deal at this point. They'll just sell it as the EU being unflexible and still wanted to "control" the UK.

And I think it will work. All Johnson has is Brexit, as evidence by there handling of anything else, so they are going to make it a divisive issue to shore up their support.

Again, listen to Brexit Republic for some excellent roundup and analysis but it really seems 2020 will have a delightful sting in the tail for us anyway.

It’ll work because right now people are more worried about a Covid than they are about Brexit. Mind you the noise coming out of the US at the moment might give Cummings/Boris pause, and there are also a not insignificant number of Tory MPs discovering they might have some backbone and who are not happy.

Interesting times as they say. For all the wrong reasons admittedly.

Sorbicol wrote:

Interesting times as they say. For all the wrong reasons admittedly.

As a Brit living in the USA, I find myself occasionally musing on what life would have been liked had I stayed, or if I returned. Suffice it to say at the moment, I'm not entirely sure which dumpster fire I should have chosen. Haha!

Sorbicol wrote:

It’ll work because right now people are more worried about a Covid than they are about Brexit. Mind you the noise coming out of the US at the moment might give Cummings/Boris pause, and there are also a not insignificant number of Tory MPs discovering they might have some backbone and who are not happy.

Interesting times as they say. For all the wrong reasons admittedly.

Successive UK governments claim that there is a "special" relationship between it and the US. I've found if you have to keep repeating something, it's rarely true.

At the very least, UK governments and media seem to be unaware of what influence Ireland wields internationally relative to their own nation. It genuinely seem to be a source of surprise to them how strongly others stand on certain issues regarding Ireland. Almost as if successive Irish government have spent decades, generations even, developing that influence?

With this administration, the US doesn't have a special relationship with anyone, anywhere. You might be able to buy some influence with bribing Trump, but beyond that, he is loyal only to himself.

When Democrats were running the joint, I'd say the UK had an outsized influence on us, but now? Not even a little bit.

Sure seems like Trump has a special relationship with Putin.

Ah, true, you're right. It's not quite the same thing, but it works the same way, so I think it qualifies.