[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Axon wrote:

Ode to Joy has been topping the charts in the UK. 54% of voters voted for parties offering a second referendum. I suspect this will be reserved in my lifetime.

It’s going to depend on how things go, and how it impacts people’s day to day lives. If things go precipitously bad yes - eventually. If thing sort of don’t change (which is more or less what I expect) or get gradually worse over an extended period of time, then it might get reversed eventually, but probably not in my life time. If things go well (I’d be astonished but you can’t rule it out) then forget it.

There are other more pressing issues now. Boris is going to make a whole host of changes now that’ll make it very hard to get the Conservatives out of power - changes to constitutional law, (such as it is), changes to constituency boundaries, probably limiting Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish influence in ‘English’ affairs (which will include national interests) and abolishing the fixed term parliament act. All of that will need to be fixed first before we can come back to Europe. That’s going to take a very long time.

I fully expect parts of the UK to rejoin the EU within my lifetime. I'm not holding my breath for the whole thing, though.

And it's official.

With Brexit, the UK will become a "democratic, self-governing, independent and, I hope, proud nation".

But... it never stopped being.... it.... was....

.......I'm going to sit down.

Wow! Crazy that both major political events happened within hours of each other.
Darkest timeline indeed

Sorbicol wrote:

Boris is going to make a whole host of changes now that’ll make it very hard to get the Conservatives out of power - changes to constitutional law, (such as it is), changes to constituency boundaries, probably limiting Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish influence in ‘English’ affairs (which will include national interests) and abolishing the fixed term parliament act.

England prevails.

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Bruce wrote:

I think today will mark the start of a national discovery that the UK is not as big and important as it thinks it is.

I sincerely doubt it. Since the 70s (probably earlier) the British ruling/monied/political class has been utterly divided about whether it should be politically aligned with Europe or with anglophone US interests. Brexit is a huge victory for those who want the UK to be realigned with American geopolitical interests and I doubt they'll spend even a second ringing their hands about how big or important the UK is on the international stage. And it's plainly evident that their palls in the right-wing media will spin whatever is needed to hide/downplay the UK's struggling economy for however long it takes.

Bruce wrote:

It is a total politician line that Brexit is "done" now. They are just starting the clock on the next round of negotiations.

Well this is indeed the case

Axon wrote:

Ode to Joy has been topping the charts in the UK. 54% of voters voted for parties offering a second referendum. I suspect this will be reserved in my lifetime.

If the UK can stay together as a union then you're probably right. If either N.Ireland or Scotland manage to secede then I doubt it.

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

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Sorbicol wrote:

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

Basically, Boris gets all of 2020 to brag, because it (the backstop, trade deals, immigration, et al) doesn't really get real until 2021, right?

Prederick wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

The number of brexiteers letting of fireworks in these part on Friday night was quite surprising.

This year is going to be the conservatives mouthing off about how much they are going to make sure the UK doesn't align with the EU very much, before some last minute grovelling around Christmas I reckon.

Basically, Boris gets all of 2020 to brag, because it (the backstop, trade deals, immigration, et al) doesn't really get real until 2021, right?

I think that’s true, as far as I can tell nothing is really changing during the ‘transition period’, which ends Dec 31st of this year.