[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

The Brexit Party candidate for my constituency (located in the Labour heartlands of the previously industrial North East) has their home address listed in as being in Western Fremantle.

That’s Western Fremantle, Perth, Australia. A mere 9000 miles away.

And I thought the Tory candidate in the 2015 election living in Tunbridge Wells, Kent (about 350 miles away. It’s south of London) was taking the piss a little.

That's their commitment to Brexit. Be as far away from Europe as possible.

I don't usually like to post on these boards (find they can get fairly hostile, fast!), but I do feel like putting out there that a few weeks ago I donated £20 to the Labour party for the first time ever. So obviously my vote will be going with them, as I think people need to see this election is all about stopping a Tory majority and getting as many of them out as possible. I feel Labour and Mr. Corbyn are the best option for that!

In the first debate I think Corbyn came off slightly better, largely helped by Johnson trying to bring every question back to Brexit, whereas Corbyn attempted to bring out a range of issues and maybe surprised a few that he has a quicker wit than Johnson. Johnson had obviously been told before-hand that Brexit was the main point to push across, but didn't seem to realise it shouldn't be his answer for everything! So much so in the Question Time last night, he only mentioned it 3 or so times (all of which seemed to bring on a lot of sighs from the audience). I actually thought Johnson was starting to come across fairly well in Question Time at the start, but the question around his previous racist and homophobic comments appeared to rattle him a bit, and from there it never really got back on the rails.

Corbyn struggled with the questions around Scotland and Bolivia a tiny bit, but I think he handled things fairly well on the whole. And actually coming out with a statement on Brexit stance is good, I think the neutral line should've been said a long time ago, although there's possibly reasoning in why it hasn't. Like his first debate, it wasn't by any means a storm to victory, but I do think he helped his chances. There was a fairly big crowd outside to greet Corbyn, and his style of addressing large audiences of fans seems a bit different. My girlfriend thinks he's possibly told when in front of a public audience on TV he's trying to tone things down a little bit. It's odd, as when addressing crowds of supporters, it's like another level of passion within him, and I think it's a bit of a shame other people don't see it. But, saying that, lord knows what opponents will do with that being displayed on a national platform considering some of the other connections they've made in the past. It still bewilders me how the very Prime Minister of this country was able to suggest in the national press that a Corbyn government would be similar to that of Stalin and his collectivisation with the Kulaks, and that was pretty much a one day news story! I'm guessing the history of that is probably not as apparent to people to the majority.

On the whole though, I'd put Corbyn 2nd. Sturgeon was the most impressive of the night, and you can often tell watching her that points just flow from her rather than trying to revise a bunch of points before-hand and fit them in. She's a great statesperson.

And for Johnson, I guess his only saving grace is that Jo Swinson probably did him a favour by possibly having an even worse 30 minutes with the audience. Her and Johnson were probably dreading things a bit when they saw that it would be held in Sheffield.

The Conservatives have opened up a 19 point lead which is 47% of the vote share.

‘Get Brexit Done’ is a message that is overwhelmingly getting through. My parents were visiting this weekend (neither of whom have ever voted Tory in their lives) but my old man was saying that despite disagreeing with pretty much everything else Boris says, that message alone is one that is making him seriously consider voting for him.

I spent a very pointed half hour putting him right but Labour lost this election by putting Corbyn in charge. It’s a lesson they are going to have to learn.

Ditto Jo Swinson, who is doing more to destroy the Lib Dem’s again than Nick Clegg ever managed. There is little point alienating people by making out Corbyn is a bigger threat than Johnson.

Right now I’m probably not going to vote because there is little point. I’ve written to my local MP asking him to support Proportional Representation. Dunno if I’ll get a reply now though.

I live in a constituency which has been true blue Tory since its creation in 1997 so I'm not exactly hyped about being able to enact any change. (Our MP was one of the rebels who voted against the government for the 'meaningful vote' on a Brexit deal so I'll give him that)

Ivan Rogers on the current state of play just in case you were feeling optimistic in any way about #GetBrexitDone

YouGov poll suggests Tories on course for comfortable general election victory

A new poll has suggested the Conservatives could sweep to an election victory with a 68-seat majority.

The poll, conducted by YouGov for the Times, suggested Labour would win just 211 seats.

If the election was held this Thursday, YouGov’s poll puts the Tories on 359 seats, a gain of 42 on 2017, while Labour would lose 51 seats and the Liberal Democrats would gain just one to secure 13 constituencies.

They would also take 43% of the vote in winning with a 68-seat majority – a result that would make it the party’s best performance since 1987.

The Scottish National party would win 43 seats, a gain of eight, while Wales’ Plaid Cymru and the Green party would remain static with four seats and one seat respectively.

YouGov’s model draws on the data collected from about 100,000 panellists questioned on their voting intention over the course of the last seven days, and uses a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP)

Chris Curtis, a political research manager for the pollster, said its model “currently shows the Tories with a comfortable majority with almost all of those coming at the expense of Labour in the north [of England] and Midlands.

He said: “As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum. In the seats that voted most strongly to leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6%.

“This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.

“The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called red wall. But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.”

Not really surprised. Corbyn may say some stuff I agree with, but on the whole he is an anchor around the party's neck.

On one side there are those who believe Jeremy Corbyn is a good individual whom is receiving bad press, or false press, due to character assassination attempts. On the other there are those who believe Jeremy Corbyn is a loathsome figure whom is attempting to manipulate opinion by pushing preferable talking points where unhelpful ones appear.

It's got people accusing Jeremy Corbyn of supporting racism, fascism, and anti-semitism. It's also got people holding Jeremy Corbyn up as a warrior against racism, fascism, and anti-semitism.

I'm seeing intelligent well mannered individuals get into heated exchanges about which is true, and which is hogwash.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson seems to be the preferable candidate for many. Whilst Jo Swindon may be less thought of than Jeremy Corbyn, in some instances.

I've also encountered many whom have no faith in the system, let alone the candidates. They don't believe they'll be listened to, that democracy is a farce, an illusion. They don't believe that the candidates can be trusted to keep their word, were they to participate and vote.

First past the post is a major issue now. People can see that their vote is, in most places, meaningless. Or they have to vote for a party who’s policies they disagree with to prevent a different party they disagree with more from getting the seat. There’s only so long you can ask people to vote on the basis on the least worst choice (and not their preferred choice) before they get very disillusioned with the whole process

And while the Tories hold power, and the press in this country remains virulently right wing getting any sort of traction behind Proportional Representation is very very difficult.

I read Jo Swinson being described as "possessed Head Girl" and now I can't unsee it.

Sorbicol wrote:

First past the post is a major issue now. People can see that their vote is, in most places, meaningless. Or they have to vote for a party who’s policies they disagree with to prevent a different party they disagree with more from getting the seat. There’s only so long you can ask people to vote on the basis on the least worst choice (and not their preferred choice) before they get very disillusioned with the whole process

Canada had the exact same problem in our last election. No one came out satisfied and we'll probably have 4 years of absolutely nothing positive happening. Granted, that was the best outcome and far superior than what the USA and UK are going through.

Prederick wrote:

Not really surprised. Corbyn may say some stuff I agree with, but on the whole he is an anchor around the party's neck.

I'm not too sure on this, I think the problem is he just can't win with the press, particularly the BBC, so obviously against him, which happened to Ed Miliband as well. The attacks discrediting him would've happened to any left leaning leader, in my opinion (Tony Blair has criticised both Corbyn and Miliband for being too left), and one of my fears is that we're probably seeing the end of true left politics being able to take a majority. Ironically, many of the attacks on Miliband had an undertone of going after his Jewish heritage, with the same press now keen to label Corbyn as an anti-semite at any opportunity. The press just wants to discredit them to the point of making them seem clueless.

Cameron also refused to debate Miliband, which is a bit similar to now with Johnson not bothering to show up to a climate change debate (Gove and BORIS JOHNSON'S DAD (!!!) showed up demanding to be let on in his place, spinning it as a failure of Channel 4 and the other parties for denying them a voice as they only wanted leaders). The Andrew Neil interviews debacle is on a whole other level of disgracefulness, but shows that it's all stacked against the other parties. There's currently a lot of people very upset with the BBC in particular for a multitude of things which appear to favour Johnson at the moment.

So I just think if it was anyone left-leaning, they would be attacked with the scare tactics employed right now, which ultimately lead quite a few people to be scared of them and think them not worthy of being a leader. But even then, you have to remember that in the 2017 election, Labour got 12.8m in the popular vote. David Cameron won the 2015 election with 11.3m.

Almost as if the people screaming antisemitism are doing it disingenuously, which of course they would never do.

An unlikely boost for Corbyn in the form of Andrew Neil. Recommended watching if you're outside of the UK and not familiar with the current controversy regarding it. Keep in mind that Andrew Neil is chairman of the group that owns "The Spectator", a magazine heavily associated with the Conservative party which once had Boris Johnson as an editor. The irony of it all is that the Conservatives have recently been posting clips on their Faceboook page of Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil as attack pieces!

I do have this horrible feeling though this is all a play for Johnson to announce he's doing the interview and then get an easy time of it, but we'll see. He's probably confident that the polls are far enough ahead for him that he can take the hit of not showing up (vs. showing up and potentially being caught out.)

If Labour are clever they won’t relent with this as a personal attack on Boris - ‘He’s a coward’.

Watch them completely fail to do so.