Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.
For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
Honest question - why is a Labour victory supposed to produce a radically antisemitic government? Does it hinge on the stereotype of the rich Jews controlling everything?
Honestly, I don't know why Momentum (the Labour Party faction effectly running Corbyn) seem so antisemitic. I guess it's not something I would personally be aware of, living out in Hampshire rather than in a city, but I didn't even know antisemitism was still A Thing in the UK. My impression is that they'd claim it's an issue with the actions of the Israeli goverment in Palestine, but it's also a Capitalism Is Bad thing. I'm told that Corbyn wants Brexit because EU laws would stop him from renationalising everything.
The Tory Brexiteers hate the EU because it's not capitalist enough, and they want to deregulate everything and remove employee rights, and the Labour Brexiteers hate the EU because it's too capitalist and they want everything renationalised. I'd say that probably indicates that it's about the right amount of capitalist.
Honestly, I don't know why Momentum (the Labour Party faction effectly running Corbyn) seem so antisemitic. I guess it's not something I would personally be aware of, living out in Hampshire rather than in a city, but I didn't even know antisemitism was still A Thing in the UK. My impression is that they'd claim it's an issue with the actions of the Israeli goverment in Palestine, but it's also a Capitalism Is Bad thing. I'm told that Corbyn wants Brexit because EU laws would stop him from renationalising everything.
The Tory Brexiteers hate the EU because it's not capitalist enough, and they want to deregulate everything and remove employee rights, and the Labour Brexiteers hate the EU because it's too capitalist and they want everything renationalised. I'd say that probably indicates that it's about the right amount of capitalist.
Tory Brexiteers - in fact pretty much anyone who voted leave - don’t hate the EU because it’s not capitalist enough. They hate the EU because they believe it gives too much Sovereign control to the EU at the expense of the UK Parliament & legal system. ‘Take back Control’ is the slogan for Brexit, it’s a damn powerful one.
"Taking back control" is the misleading nonsense message for the unwashed masses, but deregulation is the reason all those special interest groups want it:. Brexit will make them money
Honest question - why is a Labour victory supposed to produce a radically antisemitic government? Does it hinge on the stereotype of the rich Jews controlling everything?
It wouldn’t produce a radically anti Semitic government, but it would produce one that is considerably more pro-Palestinian that the majority of other major Western Democracies than there are at the moment.
Labour are - or have been Historically - fairly supportive of the Palestinian cause. The problem is that Corbyn can’t work out when being anti Israeli state policy crosses the line into being antisemitic (he has several rather unfortunate incidents in the past) and it’s a very convent and deserved stick to beat him with. By extension he allows those elements of Labour that really are anti-semitic to flourish, because he thinks they aren’t anti-Semitic but anti-Israeli policy (see how convoluted this gets?) and so hasn’t really applied the level of scrutiny he should have to their activities.
Is probably also worth noting that Labours Anti-Semitic issues - while clearly bad - aren’t nearly as bad as the UK right wing press would have you believe. The Tories Islamaphobia issues are at least as widespread - and virulent - as Labours semitism issues but for obvious reasons that barely gets mentioned.
At least that’s how I read it. I’m sure people more versed in the internal politics of labour and Middle Eastern politics than me can give you more comprehensive assessment of that though.
I mean, I feel like at this point, it's basically just about what kind of Brexit it is, not whether there's a Brexit or not.
I mean, I feel like at this point, it's basically just about what kind of Brexit it is, not whether there's a Brexit or not.
Really good read and lots of instances where it feels like a carbon copy of Trump...
But Johnson’s political career has been marked by lies and evasions. “He is genuinely a bad person. Not an unlikable person but a bad person, as in he has no morals, no principles and beliefs,” a former close colleague told me. “He would be whatever Prime Minister was necessary to maximize the chances of gaining and then maintaining power.”
and strange, chummy disquisitions on his hobby of making model buses and painting the passengers inside.
It is hard to know how much he makes up as he goes along.
But this is in conflict with the aspirations of the millions of people who voted for Brexit in the hope of better public services and a more responsive government. While in office, Johnson has made no attempt to align these contradictory desires. He has promised to hire twenty thousand new police officers and maintain a dramatic increase in spending on the N.H.S., while enacting tax cuts for higher earners.
The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies forecasts that, under Johnson, government borrowing will be double the amount previously estimated, and that public spending will rise at its fastest rate in a decade.
It was the end of a long day. They had thought that there might be free food. Hebden, a former policeman, held an empty wineglass in his lap. The men joked about having voted for the Brexit Party in the European elections. “You wouldn’t be able to admit it if you had done it yourself, could you?” Wrenn said. “No,” Hebden said. “I couldn’t possibly admit it.” They were relaxed about a no-deal Brexit. “It’s what people politely refer to as a rebalancing of the economy,” Wrenn said. “That is, a load of people getting f*cked over, isn’t it?”
“We are going to be dragged in a particular direction,” Gauke said. “It means the Conservative Party becomes much more aggressive, much more confrontational, much more divisive. We are no longer the party of Churchill; we are more the party of Trump.” Next to me, Hebden booed loudly. At the end of the meeting, Grieve checked his phone to see what kind of abuse he was receiving on social media. “I don’t know where it is from,” he said of one message, smiling. “Hopefully not from somebody in the room.” He read it out: “You are a foul traitor.”
I mean, I feel like at this point, it's basically just about what kind of Brexit it is, not whether there's a Brexit or not.
Microtransactions joke
It's in the... politics?
General election 2019: Boris Johnson rejects pact with Nigel Farage
Boris Johnson has rejected the suggestion from Nigel Farage and Donald Trump that he should work with the Brexit Party during the election.The Tory leader told the BBC he was "always grateful for advice" but he would not enter into election pacts.
His comments come after the US president said Mr Farage and Mr Johnson would be "an unstoppable force".
Downing Street sources say there are no circumstances in which the Tories would work with the Brexit Party.
In an interview with BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg, the prime minister said the "difficulty" of doing deals with "any other party" was that it "simply risks putting Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10".
"The problem with that is that his [Mr Corbyn's] plan for Brexit is basically yet more dither and delay," Mr Johnson said.
Mr Johnson also said there was "no question of negotiating on the NHS" as part of any future trade deal with the US, but he did not rule out expanding the amount of private provision in the health service in the future.
But Labour's shadow health secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, said the public "can't trust the Tories on the NHS", saying they would "increase privatisation even further and do a deal with Donald Trump".
Honestly, I don't think Boris needs them. Also...
(I'm also increasingly of the opinion that sticking with Corbyn will kneecap Labour. Given everything that's happened to the Tories, they should be ahead in the polls, or at least close. I haven't seen a single one that shows them doing anything but losing in an election, and likely losing badly.)
I hadn't seen a good look at the polling until I found this from The Guardian and LOL. Labour only ever had a shot because of Teresa May, and since Boris has been in charge, it's been a 10-point gap for about three months now. It's a coalition with the Lib Dems (and only barely, then) or a Tory government.
I saw analysis somewhere that says that Corbyn's defenders are arguing "look at 2017" when Labour performed better than anyone expected, and to be fair, they absolutely did! It's just that they went from "losing badly" to "just losing".
I hadn't seen a good look at the polling until I found this from The Guardian and LOL. Labour only ever had a shot because of Teresa May, and since Boris has been in charge, it's been a 10-point gap for about three months now. It's a coalition with the Lib Dems (and only barely, then) or a Tory government.
Oh, based on those numbers it'll be a huge Conservative majority easily. You can't just look at the vote share to determine seat count. Vote splitting between the Lib Dems and Labour will give the Conservatives way more seats than their vote share should dictate. FPTP is the worst system ever.
But maybe Farage's clown car will steal votes from the tories...
One can only hope. Although, if you look at the opinion polling, it doesn't look too good. The Brexit Party has collapsed hard over the past few months.
That's sad news about Tom Watson. I suspect he'll be back, though. Wonder what effect it will have.
Oh, and the Tories off to the usual incompetent start.
That's sad news about Tom Watson. I suspect he'll be back, though. Wonder what effect it will have.
Oh, and the Tories off to the usual incompetent start.
The problem with the Tories incompetent start? It won’t make any difference. They are still most likely to end this with a good working majority.
I think we’ve all learned our lessons about making declarative statements about this entire process 
I think we’ve all learned our lessons about making declarative statements about this entire process :)
That’s why I said ‘most likely’!
I think we’ve all learned our lessons about making declarative statements about this entire process :)
Nah.
"This will continue to be a clusterf*ck of an omnishambles."
How's that?
Perfect. We can all run with that conclusion.
On Tom Watson, it appears the NEC is opposing some MPs selections. I’m not going to claim all are angels but one of the cases certainly seems highly politically motivated. The plot is thickening on this one.
From some commentary, it seems Watson hung on to get the second referendum in the manifesto. Once done, he recognised his days were numbered.
I’m not having a go at Corbyn here either. Politics is a dirty game and all that. I just don’t think the confused policy on Brexit that Labour is pushing is going to be anything but a vote loser. In the end and given the pitfalls of a first past the post system, predicting any outcome in this four horse race is impossible.
And I’m not even including the voting pacts going on in NI and Scotland.
The balance of Power in Labour currently lies with Momentum, and the leader of Momentum is a chap called Jon Landman and he’s effectively labour’s version of Dominic Cummins - the power behind the throne driving the party towards a more extreme left-wing socialist platform.
It’s them that are manipulating Labour candidate selection (by some fairly underhand means by all accounts) to be arch socialists that will naturally support Corbyn rather than the more moderate centrist figures like Watson or Starmer.
Corbyn would never be seen directly supporting that process, but you can be pretty damn sure he won’t do much to prevent it either.
Edit: also, Labour have a Clear Brexit policy: They’ll renegotiate the Withdrawal agreement to include remaining in a (not the) customs union, and then allow a second referendum on that agreement or remaining in the EU. What Corbyn ain’t saying is whether he supports Leave or Remain in that scenario. The idea that’s ‘confused’ is one the right wing press and the Tories will continue to push though for obvious reasons.
Yep, fully aware of the history and Ed Miliband's hand in all of this mess as well but I genuinely don't have much problem with what Corbyn and the NEC are doing. This stuff goes on all the time in many a country. The people I have a problem with are the ones who don't share Corbyn's beliefs but are staying quiet in order to keep their seats. The very same who campaigned against electoral reform because they assumed it would suit them.
The sooner the plurality system of voting is gone along with the two party system the better. Let the Trots have their party. The Soc Dems need to get their own as well.
: also, Labour have a Clear Brexit policy: They’ll renegotiate the Withdrawal agreement to include remaining in a (not the) customs union, and then allow a second referendum on that agreement or remaining in the EU. What Corbyn ain’t saying is whether he supports Leave or Remain in that scenario. The idea that’s ‘confused’ is one the right wing press and the Tories will continue to push though for obvious reasons.
So the Labour Party is going to renegotiate another deal (let's assume the EU27 will) and then put that to a referendum with elements of the party advocating either side of the referendum. And the leader of the party won't even tell you which choice he prefers. I'm quite sure the Lib Dems and SNP are delighted that they are competing with that policy.
So the Labour Party is going to renegotiate another deal (let's assume the EU27 will) and then put that to a referendum with elements of the party advocating either side of the referendum. And the leader of the party won't even tell you which choice he prefers. I'm quite sure the Lib Dems and SNP are delighted that they are competing with that policy.
If Labour get a majority and if they ask to renegotiate to keep a Customs Union then Yeah, I think the EU will negotiate. Especially if they guarantee a second ref on the outcome. It’s a lot of ifs, but it is clear. Convoluted, but clear.
Also Labour moving to a hard left socialist platform is fine, but people outside their core support then won’t vote for them. It might no make that much difference in the long run (thanks to FPTP) but it also certainly means they won’t get a majority. Or anything like it. It’s not the Labour core support they have to appeal to, its everyone else.
Brexit has finally made me hopeless enough that I have actually become a member of a political organisation: the Electoral Reform Society. Join now for a very snazzy tote bag.
Whatever happens in this election, I predict a large majority of the people who voted will not have voted for the party who wins.
And that’s why I’m fine with either the Labour or the Tories becoming more ideologically driven. I don’t care in which direction as it will put massive pressure on the pluarity system of voting the more obvious it’s problems become.
Brexit has finally made me hopeless enough that I have actually become a member of a political organisation: the Electoral Reform Society. Join now for a very snazzy tote bag.
Whatever happens in this election, I predict a large majority of the people who voted will not have voted for the party who wins.
I’m not quite a member but I do get all their promotional material and also the Make Vote Matter people as well.
PR is very long overdue in this country now. I know it’s not a perfect system but it is light years ahead of the current FPTP system we have. Unfortunately most people don’t care enough to force the change and the Tories and Labour have vested interests in keeping FTPT in place.
Aye, there are challenges. But if they're weren't there would be change already. They only way you can create change is by pushing the narrative. Sometimes for decades. Worked for the anti-EU crowd so imagine how easy your task is when you've got right on your side.
Much like Universal Healthcare in the US, you'd be amazed how quickly opinion changes when you marshall the facts. Most people just aren't aware of the opposing facts to the status quo and it's your job to tell them.
Much like Universal Healthcare in the US, you'd be amazed how quickly opinion changes when you marshall the facts.
Sadly, I'm not sure that's an accurate statement.
Over the span of decades the trend is going in it's definitely going in its favour. The major problem, much like electoral reform in the UK, is about getting it on the agenda. Universal Healthcare is now on the agenda in the US and the genie is not going back in the bottle. Have faith. These things can take decades.
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