[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

If the Darkest timeline takes a surprising turn and a Brexit deal + a US-China "peace" deal happens at the very same time, I dont even know what to believe anymore!

Both sides are in what they call "The tunnel" now.

Both the British and Irish governments remained tight-lipped last night on the progress of the efforts to reach an agreement and on the nature of any changed British position.

However, it is believed that the UK is now open to a form of customs arrangement involving Northern Ireland which would avoid any customs checks on the island of Ireland. This would allow the North to legally leave the EU customs union, while administering EU customs checks and rules where necessary on goods destined for the single market.

Frankly, this is the only path out of this. Some are already cheekily referring to it as "the backstop for slow learners" invoking Seasmus Mallon's famous quote "Sunningdale for slow learners" describing the Good Friday Agreement. Thankfully it didn't take 30 years this time.

So if they somehow manage to accomplish this by the end of the month is Boris going to get credit?

With his voting base I am sure he will.

I mean, if they manage it, doesn’t he actually deserve some credit?
And won’t his base be potentially pissed if he doesn’t deliver a true hard brexit?

Shadout wrote:

I mean, if they manage it, doesn’t he actually deserve some credit?
And won’t his base be potentially pissed if he doesn’t deliver a true hard brexit?

I generally don't give credit to people who stop pushing on the door that is labeled "pull".

He’s got to get that agreement through Parliament. He’s going to find it very hard because he’s a pathological liar and nobody trusts him. In the end it’s still Teresa Mays deal with a few little tweaks.

Why not. Then they slightly improved themselves. Seems laudable. Especially when it is someone that seemed unable to learn.

In any case, it is probably pre-emptive, one UK analyst I saw on TV yesterday, was convinced that all of this was still just Boris acting like he wanted a deal, so he could blame EU and/or UK parliament when he goes through with hard brexit anyway. I think I will go with my skepticism world view for a while longer.

This is getting even more interesting. Parse Dodd's comments properly here. He is saying that NI cannot leave UK customs union. But the intention is not to leave the UK custom union but to leave the EU custom union but administer is like it still is and use the Irish sea as the border.

Now, the real question once this all happens expect Nicola Sturgeon to spot the now wide open political goal. The more this goes on the more I believe the real story is the end of the UK. We are living through it but we just don't see it yet.

Brexit talks fail to yield breakthrough with timely deal feared ‘impossible’

I'll be honest, at this point I'm kind of in this to see what kind of treatment it gets on "Last Week Tonight."

A breakthrough in the Brexit talks has failed to materialise after a weekend of intensive negotiations, with European Union capitals concluding that it may now be impossible for the UK to leave the EU by 31 October with a deal.

In a briefing to EU ambassadors on Sunday evening, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, raised the prospect of the talks having to continue after the forthcoming leaders’ summit on Thursday, such was the lack of progress.

Barnier told diplomats for the member states that the latest British customs proposals for the Irish border remained an “untested” risk that the bloc could not countenance. He said that it would require a fresh “political impulse” from Boris Johnson for a deal to be realisable this week.

On the UK’s proposed Stormont veto on Northern Ireland staying in the EU’s single market for goods, the Irish representative told the room that such an arrangement was “not a notion that is included in the Good Friday agreement”.

A Brexit extension – whether “technical” if the two sides get close to a deal in late October or longer to accommodate a general election – was raised in the EU27’s discussions for the first time in months.

Johnson had hinted at the problems during an update of his cabinet on Sunday lunchtime. He offered few details, but a No 10 spokesperson said the prime minister had told his colleagues that “a pathway to a deal could be seen, but that there is still a significant amount of work to get there and we must remain prepared to leave on 31 October”.

Putting the border in the Irish Sea is a perfectly cromulent way to resolve this, but why are you still sucking up to the DUP? They're not going to agree to anything of the sort. They were a critical part of your majority, but you lost your majority, remember? You're free.

A reminder of what was promised by Brexit.

https://reaction.life/britain-looks-...

Bruce wrote:

A reminder of what was promised by Brexit.

https://reaction.life/britain-looks-...

Good god, what a disconnect from reality.

Perhaps the greatest benefit, though, is not easy to quantify. Britain has recovered its self-belief.

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Agathos wrote:

Putting the border in the Irish Sea is a perfectly cromulent way to resolve this, but why are you still sucking up to the DUP? They're not going to agree to anything of the sort. They were a critical part of your majority, but you lost your majority, remember? You're free.

For the simple reason that it's the easiest path to get the numbers to pass the deal in the Commons. The DUP gets you the ERG. The main Tory party will vote for it and so will the rebels. Well, certainly 90% of them. What he needs is Labour Party member to vote with the government and they won't do that if Johnson isn't anywhere near a majority. They face losing the whip and deselections. If he is close, they will vote for it.

So, it all begins with the DUP for Johnson.

My advice for anyone looking for updates is to check out Tony Connelly, RTE Europe Editor, and Peter Foster, Daily Telegraph Europe Editor. Both have proven to been sources of truth. Things are moving fast and shifting every hour. High wire stuff.

There are some reports coming in that a Brexit deal has been agreed.

I would have lost that bet.

Juncker and Johnson have said the deal is done. DUP on board according to Foster.

Nicola Sturgeon is waiting in the wings....

Axon wrote:

Juncker and Johnson have said the deal is done. DUP on board according to Foster.

Nicola Sturgeon is waiting in the wings....

DUP say their position hasn’t changed. I’m not sure how relavent they are right now.

All we need now is a Second ref.

Certainly a big possibility as well

So my understanding is: Boris Johnson decided to do deal without the DUP. He knows he won't get the deal through parliament, but he will get what he always wanted - a general election with a deal that he can wave at the electorate.
Axon wrote:

Certainly a big possibility as well

So my understanding is: Boris Johnson decided to do deal without the DUP. He knows he won't get the deal through parliament, but he will get what he always wanted - a general election with a deal that he can wave at the electorate.

That’s pretty much the conclusion I’ve come to as well. Mind you the detail of the agreement is pretty hard to come by. I do love the British press.........

sorry Boris, not today! Maybe you'll be lucky next time. *shrug*

Yeap, the cycle continues.

Well, to be fair, it’s just parliament making sure that if they pass the deal he has to accept it. Most assume it’ll pass.

Axon wrote:

Well, to be fair, it’s just parliament making sure that if they pass the deal he has to accept it. Most assume it’ll pass.

I'm...... not sure. I don't think it will pass so long as Labour can keep delaying it. Assuming Johnson's petulant reaction to his defeat today (he's sent the letter requesting an extension as he is required to do by the Benn act, but hasn't signed it) is ignored by the EU and the extension is granted then it'll be General Election time. I don't think Boris's withdrawal agreement will survive that because either the Labour party (assuming they win) will renegotiate it, or Boris will win and immediately move to no deal. His new agreement is pretty much that anyway, it just makes the timelines so tight it's highly unlikely any sort of trade deal between the UK and EU will be finalised before the cut off dates occur.

Until the GE button has been pushed (and they need to get on with that otherwise it'll be Christmas) I don't see this agreement doing anything.

The more details of any Brexit deal anyone sees the less like the Brexit of their mind's eye it can be. There is an open question if the ERG Spartans could vote for Brexit legislation that put the Level Playing Field and Workers Rights aspects of Johnson's offer to Labour leavers in legislation.

Also still not sure the ERG didn't want to pass this deal to as a meaningful vote to avoid the Benn Act and extension but vote down the legislature to get the crash out of their dreams.

Either way it'll be interesting how long an extension the EU give.

Axon wrote:

Well, to be fair, it’s just parliament making sure that if they pass the deal he has to accept it. Most assume it’ll pass.

IMAGE(https://media1.giphy.com/media/8vyZouWSVhslwWA7Lp/giphy.gif)

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/cx0gKZB.gif)

Not about Brexit specifically, but then again, Brexit isn't really about Brexit anymore:

Trust is becoming the principal casualty of Britain’s raging political war

Britain is in a revolutionary crisis. Its economy, constitution, place in the international order and sense of who it is and what it can become will be battlefields at the next election. The high stakes alone will ensure that a red mist descends. To heighten the rage, the wilful failure of the Conservative government to prevent the corruptions of the electoral process brought by the age of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will sharpen every grievance.

Put yourself in the place of Britain’s competing factions and you get a fair idea of how angry and desperate all sides will become. The leaders of the Brexit movement must know they are on borrowed time. They may condemn liberals who have the bad taste to point out that Leave voters are dying and Remain-supporting teenagers are joining the electoral roll as each year passes. But the intelligent among them understand that demography is destiny and they have to get out of the EU while they can.

In any case, “Brexit” has never “meant Brexit” since 2016. In the words of one Telegraph columnist, it is a reaction against everything conservatives loathe: forcing “progressive liberalism down people’s throats”, “making patriotism a dirty word”, “branding decent folk racist” and, well, I’m sure you know the rest of the dirge. To see Boris Johnson out of office and Brexit lost would feel like a kind of death. The last, best chance of conservative England to reject the modern world would be gone.

Remainer opinion has also radicalised at revolutionary speed. The far-left leadership of the Labour party, who of all people ought to understand revolutions, look like old and tired men. They have refused to move with or even understand the runaway anger that the reaction against Brexit has generated. Remainers, too, feel that everything they love about their country is threatened by disgraceful people. They too know defeat will bring desolation.

Brexit may feel endless. But the incendiary tensions in Britain don’t end with Brexit. Labour’s quasi-socialist programme has inspired so much fear among the wealthy that the Tories will be the beneficiaries of what one sympathiser described to me as “a wall of money” for their election campaign. Many British Jews believe a Labour victory would produce the most antisemitic government western Europe has seen since 1945. Large numbers are talking of leaving the country. In turn, Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters must suspect that the next election is the radical left’s last chance. If they lose, it will be the end of them and traditional Labour values and politicians will reassert themselves.

(I'm also increasingly of the opinion that sticking with Corbyn will kneecap Labour. Given everything that's happened to the Tories, they should be ahead in the polls, or at least close. I haven't seen a single one that shows them doing anything but losing in an election, and likely losing badly.)

Corbyn is Labours central problem - there are a lot of people more than happy to vote Labour who absolutely will not while he remains in charge. Momentum’s coup in Labour is probably worse than what the ERG have done to the Tories - they are militantly trying to get rid of anyone who doesn’t align with their hard left socialist agenda, making people outside that core support less and less likely to vote for them. They are ideologically blind to that, and so at best will end up running a minority government or needing a substantial coalition. It’s making a Tory majority considerably more likely.

If Labour got rid of him the probability they’d win the next election would massively increase.