[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

YES voters in a theoretical new indie referendum just pushed into 52% in the most recent polls (not counting undecideds) so....there’s that.

pyxistyx wrote:

YES voters in a theoretical new indie referendum just pushed into 52% in the most recent polls (not counting undecideds) so....there’s that.

From my viewpoint as an ignorant American, that looks like the way things are heading. CNN had an article a couple of days ago that made sense to me: Boris Johnson could be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom

Can Scotland leave without permission by UK parliament? If we ignore the 'actual civil war' option, that is.

52% does not seem particularly high in any case. Especially not considering the completely chaotic time the poll is made.

Shadout wrote:

Can Scotland leave without permission by UK parliament? If we ignore the 'actual civil war' option, that is.

52% does not seem particularly high in any case. Especially not considering the completely chaotic time the poll is made.

No. It can’t. Although it would very hard to ignore the call to independence if, for example, the SNP won every Scottish Parliamentary seat in a post no deal GE.

Scotland’s main problem is that they had a referendum on independence a couple of years back, and voted to stay. If they are allowed another referendum on it, well it’s not like there are any other referendums that deserve a second go out there are there?

Looking on the bright side of Brexit: on holiday in France and I don't need to do any of that tedious mental calculations to work out how much something costs in real money.

And everything we buy from UK cost less and less each day!

Brexit: No-deal dossier shows worst-case scenario - Gove

A leaked cross-government study warning of the impact of a no-deal Brexit outlines a "worst-case scenario", cabinet minister Michael Gove has said.

Details from the dossier warn of food and medicine shortages if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Mr Gove, who is responsible for no-deal preparation, said the document was old and Brexit planning had accelerated since Boris Johnson became PM.

But he acknowledged no deal would bring disruption, or "bumps in the road".

The leak comes as Mr Johnson is to meet European leaders later this week.

The prime minister will insist there must be a new Brexit deal when he holds talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

At this point, I'd bet that the no-deal Brexit (I'm still sure that's what it's going to end up being) will be even worse than what the warnings have said so far.

Throughly enjoyed this. Neither rogue nor wily fixer, Varadkar confounds British. The UK government is trying to intimidate Ireland into conceding on the border or it's setting Ireland up to be the fall guy. What's amusing to see is the frothing-at-the-mouth rage in some sections that we just don't seem to care. Better yet, the billionaire owned press has no effect on our country which only seems to drive them on further. As the last paragraph puts it.

This UK isn’t used to this. The Taoiseach and British prime minister are at least nominal equals in the European Council. Ireland for the first time is able to act on equal terms to its larger and more powerful neighbour. This has allowed Ireland to divest its hang-ups, or “inferiority complex” that Dudley Edwards talks of. But the open hostility to Varadkar and Ireland’s negotiating position illustrates a UK that hasn’t gone through the same psychological process – uneasy with a development they see granting the Taoiseach power above his station.

For a very long time, being Irish was basically defined as being not British. My generation, which Varadkar is very much part of, grew up with a very different perspective thanks to many factors. But, and here is the rub, we were viewing ourselves as joining the family of nations as an equal. Britain took the opposite direction which many still haven't made peace with.

As the Tory Party, aided by the press, tries to confect narratives of an outward-looking, tolerant and global Britain, at ease with itself in the comity of nations, perhaps it doesn’t realise that Ireland has got there first. It’s not Varadkar they dislike, but the new political reality.

As for what will happen, you get the distinct impression that the EU27 is not going to shift as there is nothing in it for them to move. The UK Government will have to accept the WA at some point. It's just a matter of what damage it's going to cause before it does.

Still think Johnson fully intends to betray the DUP. Again, when that is is entirely up to him.

Still think Johnson fully intends to betray the DUP.

Good luck to him then. I still can't figure out what the DUP wants, so I don't know if it's logically possible to betray them.

During the vote-a-rama in March, they voted against or abstained on
- May's deal
- no deal
- customs union
- second referendum

The DUP are the only party that opposes the GFA. Some Tories do, Gove notably, but the DUP never wanted Dublin having any input into Northern Ireland. They want Northern Ireland removed of any influence from "Rome", as they see it. Brexit was a means to an end for them.

Now, they have to be careful because they do rely on votes from the rural areas that will be hit hard by a no-deal scenario. So, they have to be seen not to be bad actors. And they are past masters at this. Themselves and Sinn Fein are well matched. Very shrewd operators.

Stopped clock syndrome in full effect the other day as Boris Johnson had an anti-anti-vaxxer rant.
That said, getting hold of vaccines is going to be tougher with the upcoming no deal Brexit.

Straight up, this framing is not even remotely what she meant.

If anything is going on here she's calling Johnson's bluff so that he can't lazily blame the EU.

Sorbicol wrote:
Shadout wrote:

Can Scotland leave without permission by UK parliament? If we ignore the 'actual civil war' option, that is.

52% does not seem particularly high in any case. Especially not considering the completely chaotic time the poll is made.

No. It can’t. Although it would very hard to ignore the call to independence if, for example, the SNP won every Scottish Parliamentary seat in a post no deal GE.

Scotland’s main problem is that they had a referendum on independence a couple of years back, and voted to stay. If they are allowed another referendum on it, well it’s not like there are any other referendums that deserve a second go out there are there?

And has Whitehall been acting on the "devo max" promises made to secure the referendum's result?

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

And has Whitehall been acting on the "devo max" promises made to secure the referendum's result?

No, but that’s Scotland’s other problem. Outside of Scotland, nobody cares.

DanB wrote:

Straight up, this framing is not even remotely what she meant.

If anything is going on here she's calling Johnson's bluff so that he can't lazily blame the EU.

Thought be Beeb headline was awful. What she actually said is far more circumspect. To be fair, by late last night most of the commentators say it as blame game management.

Edit: Macron pours cold water. Which probably plays into Johnson’s hand but what can we do.

I guess it is too much to ask for these people to stop playing power politics for one f*cking minute and do what is best for the actual country and people they are supposed to represent.