[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I've just come to accept I'll need to learn a new language if and when my refugee visa is accepted, because no primarily English speaking nation looks like they'll be in a position to take anyone in.

Dominic Rabb has been eliminated from the race, which is just as well as he’s an odious pathetic little man who wouldn’t understand the concept of ‘democracy’ if it bite him on the arse.

Rory Stewart picked up a lot more votes but is still behind Gove, Hunt and Boris (who also picked up votes. Not that it’ll make any difference in the long run.

I’m watching the ‘debate’ between all the candidates on the BBC. Boris looks nightly pissed off whenever anyone questions anything he says. He also has no answers and Rory Stewart is pressing him very hard on what he’s going to do about the backstop. They are all ganging up on him right now. Gove is trying to back peddle massively on his dealings with Northern Ireland and his stated dislike of the Good Friday Agreement. Javid and Hunt haven’t said a lot yet.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I think the U.S having had a large minority population for most of it's history, combined with slavery and race relations being the countries Original Sin, has just put the U.S ahead of the curve on these issues. The ray of hope on this side of the pond is that said large minority population is something of a ticking demographic timebomb for our far-right party*. If we can hold it together for another decade, decade and a half their ability to seize political power at the federal level, As their party currently exist, reduces greatly.

*The Republicans, obviously. Why do you ask?

US talk should probably go elsewhere.

bnpederson wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I've just come to accept I'll need to learn a new language if and when my refugee visa is accepted, because no primarily English speaking nation looks like they'll be in a position to take anyone in.

Axon wrote:
bnpederson wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I've just come to accept I'll need to learn a new language if and when my refugee visa is accepted, because no primarily English speaking nation looks like they'll be in a position to take anyone in.

I keep forgetting that I'm eligible for Irish citizenship, but then I remember how much I hate humidity.

Sorbicol wrote:

I’m watching the ‘debate’ between all the candidates on the BBC. Boris looks nightly pissed off whenever anyone questions anything he says. He also has no answers and Rory Stewart is pressing him very hard on what he’s going to do about the backstop. They are all ganging up on him right now. Gove is trying to back peddle massively on his dealings with Northern Ireland and his stated dislike of the Good Friday Agreement. Javid and Hunt haven’t said a lot yet.

Frankly, I think it's pointless believing a single word from any of them apart from Stewart. Johnson (Not calling him by his first name as that's part of the persona) is a proven liar. He will say whatever to get power and do the opposite without shame. Asking him questions is pointless as his supporters don't care. The victim culture that the Murdoch media empire has created is just incredible to see in the UK, US and Australia. They know they are being lied to so they don't care their leaders lie as well.

Axon wrote:

The victim culture that the Murdoch media empire has created is just incredible to see in the UK, US and Australia. They know they are being lied to so they don't care their leaders lie as well.

That really sums up trump here.

I wonder what makes people find that satisfying.

Zona wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I think the U.S having had a large minority population for most of it's history, combined with slavery and race relations being the countries Original Sin, has just put the U.S ahead of the curve on these issues. The ray of hope on this side of the pond is that said large minority population is something of a ticking demographic timebomb for our far-right party*. If we can hold it together for another decade, decade and a half their ability to seize political power at the federal level, As their party currently exist, reduces greatly.

*The Republicans, obviously. Why do you ask?

One word: Gerrymandering. Being a minority is no impediment to power. Especially in first-past-the-post electoral system. I really wouldn't assume that tactic will succeed at all.

Historical factoid: The British forced us to accept proportional voting because they didn't want the majority having complete power. They wanted minority unionist voices taking seats as well as nationalist. Let that sink in.

Axon wrote:

Frankly, I think it's pointless believing a single word from any of them apart from Stewart. Johnson (Not calling him by his first name as that's part of the persona) is a proven liar. He will say whatever to get power and do.

I don’t really think Stewart is much better though as he as consistently and repeatedly voted against May’s deal and - by default - in favour of no deal. Suddenly he’s reversed his positioning on that.

He’s been very good at pointing out Johnson et al cannot deliver their promises about the WA and the backstop because the EU have made it pointedly clear they will not be renegotiating anything in the WA though. At least he’s getting that across to those who still think everything is on the table.

Sorbicol wrote:
Axon wrote:

Frankly, I think it's pointless believing a single word from any of them apart from Stewart. Johnson (Not calling him by his first name as that's part of the persona) is a proven liar. He will say whatever to get power and do.

I don’t really think Stewart is much better though as he as consistently and repeatedly voted against May’s deal and - by default - in favour of no deal. Suddenly he’s reversed his positioning on that.

He’s been very good at pointing out Johnson et al cannot deliver their promises about the WA and the backstop because the EU have made it pointedly clear they will not be renegotiating anything in the WA though. At least he’s getting that across to those who still think everything is on the table.

Is that correct? I got the impression that Stewart had voted every single time for May's WA.

EDIT: A quick google leads me to https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk... which has him voting YES to MA1 and MA2. I presume MA3 as well.

I was fairly sure that was the case. I'd remembered Stewart from the Iraq war when he popped up on James O'Brien's show. I initially wanted to dislike him at that time but he did make a persuasive argument. I never really thought he'd actually make much of a splash after that.

And he's just been cut as I type this.

Doesn’t really matter now, he’s out anyway.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:
Axon wrote:
bnpederson wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:
dejanzie wrote:
DanB wrote:

More horrifying still is the political opinions of the Conservative Party Members who are voting for the coming PM

https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/stat...

Scotland leaving the union, Irish re-unification and the conservative party beingdestroyed. Maybe there are some positives about brexit afterall...

DanB-hausered!

Might be reassuring to Americans that they're not the only ones going cray-cray over pet issues and partisan BS though?

For me, it's always this double-edged sword. It's like, "see, we're *not* freaks--Europe is going through the same stuff!" but that's followed by an even bigger "um, if they can't get it to work over in Europe, what hope to we have?"

I've just come to accept I'll need to learn a new language if and when my refugee visa is accepted, because no primarily English speaking nation looks like they'll be in a position to take anyone in.

I keep forgetting that I'm eligible for Irish citizenship, but then I remember how much I hate humidity.

The humidity in Dublin works the other way. It has a cooling effect. I've family from LA and Toronto and they love the weather on the East of the Country. It wasn't the bread basket of the British Empire for nothing Now, the West, on the other hand, is like being sprayed in the face 24/7. Basically Seattle but worse. Kerry is a jewel though. Anyone reading this, make it your business to travel through Kerry once. Magical.

Also, this all made me think of Reginald D Hunter

Having lived in Killarney and environs for most of my life, I can confirm that it is utterly magical.

I'm just grateful to be reintroduced to Reginald D Hunter!

EU Commission to publish a report on north-south (Irish) collaboration

The European Commission has circulated a document that explores in detail the scale and breadth of all areas of north-south cooperation that will potentially be disrupted by Brexit.

The document, which is due to be published shortly but has been seen by RTÉ News, highlights how both EU and UK handled the issue of north-south cooperation and the role it played in the development of the Irish backstop during the negotiations.

The paper has the potential to strongly undermine the arguments that the Irish border dilemma can be solved by technology alone, as it points to a broad range of cross-border activity that goes well beyond the technical and fiscal aspects of customs and single market regulations.

farley3k wrote:
Axon wrote:

The victim culture that the Murdoch media empire has created is just incredible to see in the UK, US and Australia. They know they are being lied to so they don't care their leaders lie as well.

That really sums up trump here.

I wonder what makes people find that satisfying.

Triggering the Libs.

That's not a joke or satire, that's literally a significant chunk of the animus. That and tribalism.

The Brexit Catch-22 Driving U.K. Politics Crazy

The trap is this: There is no majority in Parliament to agree on May’s negotiated deal enabling the United Kingdom to leave the EU in an orderly manner, with opposition centering on a £39 billion ($49 billion) divorce settlement and the Irish backstop, which ties Britain into the EU’s customs union after Brexit. And yet, there is also no majority in the House of Commons to leave without a deal, because of fears over damage to the country’s economy and standing in the world. (Though Britain leaves the EU by default on October 31, with or without Parliament’s consent, members of Parliament have shown they are willing to enact legislative barriers to stop this from happening.)

It’s the Brexit catch-22, and it’s driving Britain’s political class crazy.

The race to replace May has—so far—been mired in this seemingly intractable riddle to which no candidate has shown a convincing solution. Neither of the final two contenders seems to have any clear idea of how to solve it. Johnson has simply said the U.K. “must” leave by October 31, deal or no deal; Hunt, a multimillionaire businessman, claims he has the entrepreneurial skills to change the withdrawal treaty, a deal the EU has said, repeatedly, cannot be changed.

The only candidates in the race offering different solutions, however unlikely, were knocked out in earlier rounds of the Conservative-leadership race. The hard-liner Dominic Raab suggested suspending Parliament to bypass opposition to no deal, but this was seen as too extreme (and antidemocratic) for most Tory MPs; and the dovish Rory Stewart said the only solution was to stick with May’s deal and simply try to push it through Parliament again, even though it had failed three times already.

To those inside 10 Downing Street who have tried, and failed, to escape the trap for the past two years, the unfolding scene is like watching a TV history documentary on repeat, only this time run as farce. The reality, say some of those involved in the negotiations with the EU, is that unless the equation changes, whoever succeeds May as prime minister will be in the same tangled web that suffocated her premiership. The crisis, like catch-22, is one that cannot be escaped until the catch itself is changed—and, like Yossarian, that is not in the gift of the British prime minister. It is the system that is in control.

Only two bodies can undo this catch: the British Parliament, by changing its collective mind on the deal, allowing it to pass, or, alternatively, acquiescing to no deal; or the European Union, by changing the terms of the divorce to make it easier for Parliament to agree to it, or by cutting the cord and ejecting Britain from the club unilaterally. Ultimately, if the British political class has not found a way out of the riddle, European leaders can simply refuse to extend the country’s membership in the EU and, at 11 p.m. U.K. time on October 31, Britain will no longer be a member of the EU, deal or no deal. Catch-22 resolved.

I think that's the likely outcome here. No deal is agreed, everyone points fingers, a No-Deal Brexit happens, Johnson and the Murdoch media declare it a resounding victory for an independent Britain and the UK's own "Independence Day". Meanwhile:

IMAGE(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/151/933/b94.jpg)

Axon wrote:

Also, this all made me think of Reginald D Hunter

Jayzus, that’s funny. (Did I say that right? “Jayzus?”)

Spot on, HP. Can also be written in UK English which gives you "Jaysus" :). You can and an "Ah" to emphasise exasperation i.e.:

So, after a couple of weeks of studiously ignoring anything to do with Brexit (and concentrating of Labour’s inability to deal with its Anti-Semitism crisis and some minor leadership battle in the Tories), today something has happened

Parliament have made it much more difficult for Boris to ‘Pro-rogue’ (i.e. deliberately suspend) Parliament to force no deal.

That doesn’t meant we’ll still end up without a no deal, but it’s now probably going to boil down to a vote of no confidence if that’s what Boris decides to do. Both he and Hunt have said the WA will need to be renegotiated without a backstop for Northern Ireland - EU saying it will not renegotiate.

October is going to be fun

It's literally going to be fireworks over there. I have no idea how this ends, but I feel like "the Danelaw is returned to Danish control" is on the table.

Sorbicol wrote:

EU saying it will not renegotiate.

The EU have already disbanded their negotiating team so Tory (and Labour) claims about negotiation are surely utter fantasies at this point

Sorbicol wrote:

October is going to be fun

My predictions: We'll get about 3 weeks of pointless posturing and press hysteria followed by one of: another extension request or Art 50 being rescinded, with the former being the overwhelmingly most likely outcome

Prederick wrote:

It's literally going to be fireworks over there. I have no idea how this ends, but I feel like "the Danelaw is returned to Danish control" is on the table.

Yeah, uh, no thanks. Don't spread this mess. A huuge wall around UK seems better.

I still think it will end in No Deal, even if most people dont want it.

Shadout wrote:

I still think it will end in No Deal, even if most people dont want it.

There will be a General Election before that happens. There are enough Tories willing to vote against No Deal.

The question of course, is what happens while the GE takes place.

Oh, I think there'll be a GE, but I agree with Shadout. Political paralysis ends in a No Deal.

My understanding is that if the UK gov were requesting a further extension for the purposes of either a 2nd ref or a GE the EU would be sympathetic to that. I'm not completely clear if that would be granted considering the significant evaporation of politcal/diplomatic goodwill at this point.

I imagine what will happen is October gets written off with further unrealistic political posturing. Another extension request goes to the EU. That gets rejected as it is just kicking the can down the road and not for the purposes of sorting out the constitutional crisis (i.e 2nd ref/GE). This completely paralyses the tory Party and government, who are terrified of a Labour government happening. This lands us in no deal and we see anothee round of legal action taken against the government for failing to ensure Parliament gets to have meaningful input in the process.

DanB wrote:

My understanding is that if the UK gov were requesting a further extension for the purposes of either a 2nd ref or a GE the EU would be sympathetic to that. I'm not completely clear if that would be granted considering the significant evaporation of politcal/diplomatic goodwill at this point.

I imagine what will happen is October gets written off with further unrealistic political posturing. Another extension request goes to the EU. That gets rejected as it is just kicking the can down the road and not for the purposes of sorting out the constitutional crisis (i.e 2nd ref/GE). This completely paralyses the tory Party and government, who are terrified of a Labour government happening. This lands us in no deal and we see anothee round of legal action taken against the government for failing to ensure Parliament gets to have meaningful input in the process.

If/when that happens, Corbyn will call his next VoNC in the current administration. He’s banking on those 30 or so Tories who absolutely will not countenance a No Deal to vote with him to force a GE.

At this point I do actually think there are enough MPs to make sure that any No Deal scenario will be an active choice - i.e. the electorate actually vote for it, either by a second ref or voting for a party with ‘No Deal’ as part of their manifesto.

That might be wild optimism on my part, but I do think that if No Deal were going to happen, it would already have happened. After all it’s probably easier still at this point to have just let it happen than go through all these efforts to prevent it.