[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

As I saw these numbers crunched on twitter yesterday. This would put Labour comfortably in the lead on the number of MPs but nearly 60 short of having a house majority. But it wouldn't give Lib Dem enough MPs to make a solely Lab-LD coalition a majority either.

And I suspect an actual GE would see voting numbers rearrange substantially as per May's disasterous election.

DanB wrote:

And I suspect an actual GE would see voting numbers rearrange substantially as per May's disasterous election.

so... The Peterborough by-election went to Labour (though you wouldn't know it given the amount Farage has been on the BBC this morning).

Punditry suggested this seat would go somewhat comfortably to The Brexit Party. The margin was pretty narrow but Labour made some pretty wild gains to make this happen. Which I think indicates that the EU election really was used by voters as a proxy referendum (and protest vote). And that in an election that voters see as more substantive 'having a manifesto' is important.

All that said if you look at the numbers the Conservative, brexit party and Labour share of the vote was pretty close. Labour took this win because of how the brexit party splits the tory vote. And this presents both an opportunity for Labour and a profound risk. As long as the tory Party leadership on brexit remains a profound shambles then Labour remain in a good position to take such vote split seats. But if the tory Party can put together a leader who can deliver some acceptable brexit then they would probably able to take seats like Peterborough by comfortable margins.

The Labour positions on Brexit, to me, are so vague that I'm not sure it would even be an improvement. Would Corbyn be able to stick the landing and get an agreement through Parliament? I highly doubt it...

The pestering of anyone below upper middle class would maybe stop though should the Tories leave government.

dejanzie wrote:

The Labour positions on Brexit, to me, are so vague that I'm not sure it would even be an improvement. Would Corbyn be able to stick the landing and get an agreement through Parliament? I highly doubt it...

Probably not.

But I think the takeaway here is that people won't treat a GE as a single issue election in the way they just have in the EU elections.

Check out this news. Farage delivers demand to Downing street to have the Brexit Party be part of the EU negotiations (what negotiations you might ask).

https://www.cityam.com/nigel-farage-...

Imagine the day fail to have your only MP elected having the gall to demand to be part of the government's negotiation on brexit.

DanB wrote:

Punditry suggested this seat would go somewhat comfortably to The Brexit Party. The margin was pretty narrow but Labour made some pretty wild gains to make this happen. Which I think indicates that the EU election really was used by voters as a proxy referendum (and protest vote). And that in an election that voters see as more substantive 'having a manifesto' is important.

All that said if you look at the numbers the Conservative, brexit party and Labour share of the vote was pretty close. Labour took this win because of how the brexit party splits the tory vote. And this presents both an opportunity for Labour and a profound risk. As long as the tory Party leadership on brexit remains a profound shambles then Labour remain in a good position to take such vote split seats. But if the tory Party can put together a leader who can deliver some acceptable brexit then they would probably able to take seats like Peterborough by comfortable margins.

You've sort of hit the nail on the head there about what the Brexit party is - primarily a protest movement to convince the Tories to instigate a hard brexit (which they can't because Parliament won't allow it). They don't need a manifesto (yet) and even though they got 30% of the vote, thanks to FPTP they still don't have an MP. While there was a lot of coverage about the fact they were favourites to win I still think it's worth pointing out that most of that came from right wing media outlets who have vested interests in a No Deal Brexit. It was never going to be "comfortable" even if they had won. It also shows the amount of "swing" needed in a lot of seats to dislodge the incumbent Tory or Labour MP.

This will all eventually boil down to two choices - will parliament back a second Ref, or can Corbyn get a VoNC through and force a GE? Until that happens (probably around the end of October) nothing will change.

Sorbicol wrote:

This will all eventually boil down to two choices - will parliament back a second Ref, or can Corbyn get a VoNC through and force a GE? Until that happens (probably around the end of October) nothing will change.

Yup.

DanB wrote:

Check out this news. Farage delivers demand to Downing street to have the Brexit Party be part of the EU negotiations (what negotiations you might ask).

https://www.cityam.com/nigel-farage-...

Imagine the day fail to have your only MP elected having the gall to demand to be part of the government's negotiation on brexit.

The glee he is exhibiting while destroying his country is reprehensible

IMAGE(https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1148463649.jpg)

He looks like he just got deposited on the surface of Mars without breathing gear...

IMAGE(https://www.maxim.com/.image/t_share/MTM1MzA3MDcwNzU2NzQ1MTg2/19-things-you-didnt-know-about-total-recall.jpg)

Pyxistyx- That's an uncanny likeness.

Maybe he got deposited on the surface of Earth without breathing gear
#lizardmenrealafterall

The current Tory leadership contest is like the some kind of Brexit groundhog day.

Just to make this clear to all, the leadership is voted by the membership until two are left and then the MPs vote on the remaining. The membership of the Tory party is exactly what you think it is. Leading to many hostages to fortune and furious painting oneself into a corners.

Axon wrote:

The current Tory leadership contest is like the some kind of Brexit groundhog day.

Just to make this clear to all, the leadership is voted by the membership until two are left and then the MPs vote on the remaining. The membership of the Tory party is exactly what you think it is. Leading to many hostages to fortune and furious painting oneself into a corners.

That’s the wrong way round isn’t it? MPs vote until there are 2 candidates left and then the Tory Party membership (All 20,000 of them - only they’d better hurry up as half of them are on their death beds) will put Boris in.

!00% correct, Sorbicol

I’m still enjoying the sight of all the candidates winding the ropes around their own necks. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

Are every single one of them hardcore brexiteers?

Shadout wrote:

Are every single one of them hardcore brexiteers?

Yes. Either that or they're pretending to be in order to appeal to the racist, old, white sliver of the British population who get a voice in the selection process.

Shadout wrote:

Are every single one of them hardcore brexiteers?

Rory Stewart believes we should Brexit because that's what people voted for in the referendum, but not " at all costs".

Tomorrow Labour are going to propose a motion that would make No Deal Brexit illegal and he has said that he would support it. I also think that Matt Hancock supports a second referendum (although he'd still vote to leave).

Neither has any hope of getting to selection. It'll be between Boris and possibly Hunt, who are both perfectly willing to drive to a default No Deal.

Edit: Rory Stewart has changed his mind and will now not vote for the Labour motion.

Rory Stewart is such an interesting character. He's articulating the position I had after the vote, mainly that just staying after 52% voted to leave would undermine the ability of anyone inside the EU to trust the UK, so it would be better to move to leave a little and try to rebuild trust. First with the electorate and then with Europe. I don't hold that position anymore, since the ERG/Farage won't accept anything other than No Deal as a Real Brexit, I don't see any point in the UK giving up the advantages of EU membership.

He has got almost no chance of winning but the main argument for Boris is that he can beat Corbyn. I don't think Boris is anywhere as popular as people think he is. Stewart is the kind of conservative (small c) that has broad appeal. Stewart Vs Corbyn is probably a better bet for a Conservative majority than Boris Vs Corbyn which I think would be push a lot of Shire seats to LibDem.

One thing I have seen on ConservativeHome.com (hope Google tracking doesn't get the wrong idea) is that there is this weird grudging respect for his loyalty to May and his efforts to sell the deal on the Tory side. I think as the field thins more MPs will coalesce around him because he's actually trustworthy. He just needs to survive a couple of rounds.

In other news Dominic Raab had a female colleague sign a NDA in 2012 and he's very much against waiving it. This is how much of a Fantastist he is, he thinks he could be PM in the era of #MeToo with that skeleton in his closet.

Boris is very very popular with the Tory party membership - not the wider electorate. In some ways he’s the Conservative Jeremy Corbyn.

Boris is a dull-witted and mediocre man that has gained undeserved success from inherited privilege. He's like a Tory Jesus

I'm having a hard time imagining a no-deal Brexit not leading to the UK loosing two of its member states or Troubles 2.0 if not both. Or am I to fatalistic?

Al wrote:

I'm having a hard time imagining a no-deal Brexit not leading to the UK loosing two of its member states or Troubles 2.0 if not both. Or am I to fatalistic?

Both are very distinct probabilities yes.

For Scotland I don’t think it matter now - sooner or later it will probably become independent unless there is a massive surge away from the SNP.

Edit: Labour's attempt to prevent a No Deal legally has failed. Although they say it's just the first attempt.

As expected Boris has won the first round of Conservative MP voting for the Leadership contest.

He got 114 votes. Hunt, his nearest rival got 43. McVey, Harper and Ledsom have all been eliminated.

I know it’s not technically Brexit but it also sort of is.

No, the Conservatives inability to find an even vaguely competent leader is exactly Brexit.

Jonman wrote:

No, the Conservatives inability to find an even vaguely competent leader is exactly Brexit.

The reason why there are no competent leaders is because anyone with even the remotest ability to be competent is nowhere to be seen. The reason why they are nowhere to be seen is because anyone with the remotest ability to be competent will not touch Brexit with a barge-pole.

See also the Labour front bench.