[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

European Council President Mila Schmidt has given a press conference - confirming that the EU and UK have agreed a "flexible extension" to Brexit of six months until 13 July.

She says that during this time, the UK can still sign off Theresa May's Brexit deal and then leave earlier.

She once again reiterated that the UK is allowed to change the political declaration but not the withdrawal agreement, she said. She added that it is was still possible to cancel Brexit.

This marks the 500th extension agreed upon by the EU and UK since Brexit was voted upon 113 years ago.

JC wrote:

I anticipate this exact same dog and pony show for the next 6 months with no agreement reached by anyone. I am not sure May will be in place for much longer though. They seem intent on removing her but at the same time keeping her around as the punching bag.

I mean we are 100% going to get another 6 months of this garbage. The issue the Tory part have with ousting May is that (and perhaps the demographics have changed) the appetite in the Tory party membership is for something at the softer end of brexit and for all the bluster and noise all of the main Brexiteers don't actually want the job. It's easier and safer to let May take the fall. Pressure to oust May I suspect will mostly come from the press and if she's removed it'll be because Tory grandees feel they have to do something rather than actually wanting rid of her.

Moggy wrote:

At this point I'm convinced that the only two likely outcomes are a hard exit or a remain.

Though when that decision will be made is anyone's guess.

Right after the Ref vote I read a lot of analysis that suggested perpetual extension of the negotiating period (or WA period equivalent) would be a likely outcome for the UK.

DanB wrote:

...for all the bluster and noise all of the main Brexiteers don't actually want the job. It's easier and safer to let May take the fall.

Doesn't this just sum up the whole situation... Most people who want Brexit have no practical or realistic idea how to make it happen successfully. So they just demand that it happens, but don't want to be the person to make it happen, because it's a terrible idea.

Edit: There's a show that my wife and I watch called Derry Girls. It's a comedy, but the context is the Troubles in the North, and the latest episodes reference the peace process.

I guess it's playing on my mind that this circus could potentially undo some of that work. I grew up thinking of the North as a scary place, I'd rather my kids only thought of that kind of thing as ancient history. I also remember the extra attention that my family got in English airports because we were Irish... And when I was really young, a racist neighbour called the Police and reported a potential bomb at our house, so my parents had to stand by as they searched the entire house, including where I slept. And what caused this suspicion? A family friend had left a bag of freshly picked peas from their allotment outside our door cause they had extra...

No-one needs to go back to all that stupidity.

The problem with perpetual extension is basically having a bad actor in the project. A lot of the levers that Thatcher used to get her rebate have been removed but there are ways a Member State can use to erode the institution. If someone like Johnson won the leadership I would not put it past him. The EU27 don't want this.

Quite a few other countries fill the bad actor role already

Axon wrote:

The problem with perpetual extension is basically having a bad actor in the project.

Sure. But at the same time the EU have some interest in giving the UK enough time that maybe someone who will negotiate in good faith will eventually be in charge. Not like they are getting a great deal of joy from May

DanB wrote:

Sure. But at the same time the EU have some interest in giving the UK enough time that maybe someone who will negotiate in good faith will eventually be in charge. Not like they are getting a great deal of joy from May

The problem here will be that it's not enough time - it's not enough time for the conservatives to oust May (however they might do that) and get a new deal renegotiated. Whoever takes over from May is still going to be in the same boat - They have to keep the disperate parts of their party together and keep the DUP onside which, as May has proven, is essentially not possible. If they go too hard all the moderate Tories will probably side with Corbyn if he calls another VoNC, if they go for a much softer Brexit the ERG group will split the party.

It is time to find a deal with Corbyn and hopefully find a way to get something like the current WA through with a political declaration of a customs union/single market access being the end goal. I think that's what the EU are hoping. However, much to my astonishment, they have once again (apart from Macron) failed to understand that for the Tory party, they come first and absolutely everything else is secondary. Including Brexit. They will spend 6 months ripping themselves apart again, and nothing will change.

At least Julian Assange has been arrested today after Ecuador withdrew asylum for him. Not because I particularly care about Assange one way or another, but because for the first time in months something other than Brexit has been the main story in most of the UK media today.......

Sorbicol wrote:

At least Julian Assange has been arrested today after Ecuador withdrew asylum for him. Not because I particularly care about Assange one way or another, but because for the first time in months something other than Brexit has been the main story in most of the UK media today.......

Y'all must be so sick of hearing about it all the time. You have my sympathy.

How long till the Bake Off usually starts?

Stevintendo wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

At least Julian Assange has been arrested today after Ecuador withdrew asylum for him. Not because I particularly care about Assange one way or another, but because for the first time in months something other than Brexit has been the main story in most of the UK media today.......

Y'all must be so sick of hearing about it all the time. You have my sympathy.

How long till the Bake Off usually starts? :)

Not until autumn. They have just had the "Stand up to Cancer bake off" celebrity series which was actually very good and very funny - watching Jeremy Paxman attempt to bake cakes was unintentionally hilarious! track them down if you can.....

Being serious, brexit probably should be front page news everyday given how serious it is. The problem now is though saturation - there is now a distinct undercurrent in England of "For f*cks sake - just do something", regardless of what the something might be. That in it's own way is probably more dangerous than having the referendum in the first place.

As an aside - and I'm quite ashamed about this - while I was listening to BBC radio on the way home last night, they had an interview with Andrea Leadsom. She was talking about what the EU might or might not agree to, how bad it was that we were in this situation, basically blaming Labour for all of it and also clearly sympathising with Jacob Rees Moogs suggestion that if we do have to hold European elections, British MEPs should basically veto everything until the EU agree to a "Deal". She then slapped down the suggestion of a second referendum on the basis "it would be far too decisive to hold another referendum".

At that point I absolutely lost it. I was hammering my steering wheel with my fists, bugged eyed and screaming "WHAT DO YOU MEAN MORE DECISIVE?!? IT'S ALREADY BLOODY DECISIVE!!!! HOW MUCH MORE DECISIVE DO YOU WANT?!!!! YOU f*ckING STUPID BITCH, IF THE FIRST REFERENDUM HADN'T BEEN DECISIVE WE WOULDN'T BE IN THIS f*ckING MESS IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU f*ckING STUPID CU.............."

At that point I just happened to glance to my left and notice a nice lady with 2 small children on scooters on the pavement, looking at me with very shocked expressions on their faces having clearly heard every word I'd said. She was doing her best to get her kids away from the "mad angry ranty shouty man" in that car over there. I'm still quite relieved at that point the traffic started moving forward again. Stopped me shouting if nothing else.

Sorbicol wrote:

As an aside - and I'm quite ashamed about this - while I was listening to BBC radio on the way home last night, they had an interview with Andrea Leadsom. She was talking about what the EU might or might not agree to, how bad it was that we were in this situation, basically blaming Labour for all of it and also clearly sympathising with Jacob Rees Moogs suggestion that if we do have to hold European elections, British MEPs should basically veto everything until the EU agree to a "Deal". She then slapped down the suggestion of a second referendum on the basis "it would be far too decisive to hold another referendum".

At that point I absolutely lost it. I was hammering my steering wheel with my fists, bugged eyed and screaming "WHAT DO YOU MEAN MORE DECISIVE?!? IT'S ALREADY BLOODY DECISIVE!!!! HOW MUCH MORE DECISIVE DO YOU WANT?!!!! YOU f*ckING STUPID BITCH, IF THE FIRST REFERENDUM HADN'T BEEN DECISIVE WE WOULDN'T BE IN THIS f*ckING MESS IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU f*ckING STUPID CU.............."

Do you mean "divisive" - i.e. "tending to cause disagreement or hostility between people"

not

"decisive" - i.e. "settling an issue; producing a definite result." ?

Moggy wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

As an aside - and I'm quite ashamed about this - while I was listening to BBC radio on the way home last night, they had an interview with Andrea Leadsom. She was talking about what the EU might or might not agree to, how bad it was that we were in this situation, basically blaming Labour for all of it and also clearly sympathising with Jacob Rees Moogs suggestion that if we do have to hold European elections, British MEPs should basically veto everything until the EU agree to a "Deal". She then slapped down the suggestion of a second referendum on the basis "it would be far too decisive to hold another referendum".

At that point I absolutely lost it. I was hammering my steering wheel with my fists, bugged eyed and screaming "WHAT DO YOU MEAN MORE DECISIVE?!? IT'S ALREADY BLOODY DECISIVE!!!! HOW MUCH MORE DECISIVE DO YOU WANT?!!!! YOU f*ckING STUPID BITCH, IF THE FIRST REFERENDUM HADN'T BEEN DECISIVE WE WOULDN'T BE IN THIS f*ckING MESS IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU f*ckING STUPID CU.............."

Do you mean "divisive" - i.e. "tending to cause disagreement or hostility between people"

not

"decisive" - i.e. "settling an issue; producing a definite result." ?

Well no wonder the woman thought you were crazy.

DanB wrote:

Right after the Ref vote I read a lot of analysis that suggested perpetual extension of the negotiating period (or WA period equivalent) would be a likely outcome for the UK.

There is little worse for business than uncertainty. If the UK wants to kill their economy this is one of the best ways to do it.

LeapingGnome wrote:
DanB wrote:

Right after the Ref vote I read a lot of analysis that suggested perpetual extension of the negotiating period (or WA period equivalent) would be a likely outcome for the UK.

There is little worse for business than uncertainty. If the UK wants to kill their economy this is one of the best ways to do it.

The next best way is Brexit, though, so it's really just picking your bad options at this point.

Moggy wrote:

Do you mean "divisive" - i.e. "tending to cause disagreement or hostility between people"

not

"decisive" - i.e. "settling an issue; producing a definite result." ?

Er. Possibly the first one.

Oops.

Sorbicol wrote:

She was talking about what the EU might or might not agree to, how bad it was that we were in this situation, basically blaming Labour for all of it and also clearly sympathising with Jacob Rees Moogs suggestion that if we do have to hold European elections, British MEPs should basically veto everything until the EU agree to a "Deal". She then slapped down the suggestion of a second referendum on the basis "it would be far too decisive to hold another referendum".

I'm warming up more and more to the solution of making England a French colony.

Shadout wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

She was talking about what the EU might or might not agree to, how bad it was that we were in this situation, basically blaming Labour for all of it and also clearly sympathising with Jacob Rees Moogs suggestion that if we do have to hold European elections, British MEPs should basically veto everything until the EU agree to a "Deal". She then slapped down the suggestion of a second referendum on the basis "it would be far too decisive to hold another referendum".

I'm warming up more and more to the solution of making England a French colony.

The Auld Alliance?

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D31xdPDUEAELPwI.png)

cheeze_pavilion wrote:

The Auld Alliance?

Bring back the Plantagenets!!!

Irish ambassador to UK accuses British magazine of anti-Irish bias over Brexit.

How dare we here in Ireland have our own national policy. The very cheek.

So we had local elections yesterday and the Tories and Labour took one hell of a beating from Pro Remain parties. So of course both May and Corbyn have seen the light and realised that maybe the public have had a bit of a change of heart since 2016. Nope just kidding, they are both saying it shows the public wants to crack on with Brexit (oh and UKIP basically lost most of their seats)

onewild wrote:

So we had local elections yesterday and the Tories and Labour took one hell of a beating from Pro Remain parties. So of course both May and Corbyn have seen the light and realised that maybe the public have had a bit of a change of heart since 2016. Nope just kidding, they are both saying it shows the public wants to crack on with Brexit (oh and UKIP basically lost most of their seats)

I saw that today, although doesn't the polling for the European Elections indicate that Farage's Brexit party will probably do the best?

UKIP's "court the YouTube edgelord demographic" campaign strategy does seem to be cratering, however. They've literally managed to make Farage and Co. seem like the reasonable ones.

So is there a chance that UK might actually vote in pro-EU members for EU parliament later this month. That would be quite fun.

Shadout wrote:

So is there a chance that UK might actually vote in pro-EU members for EU parliament later this month. That would be quite fun.

I've got a feeling quite a few people are going to be surprised - especially as EU elections are on a PR basis (per region)

Having said that, we'll have to wait and see. I think what the local elections do indicate is that pro-remainers are more than prepared to get out there and vote for parties that actually demonstrate a will and desire to remain.

In other times Corbyn would have been dead and buried by now. Failing to beat this utter shower of a conservative government tells you all you need to know.

Sorbicol wrote:

In other times Corbyn would have been dead and buried by now. Failing to beat this utter shower of a conservative government tells you all you need to know.

Sometimes you can sit on the fence, sometimes sitting on the fence means you just get a post up your ass.

Prederick wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

In other times Corbyn would have been dead and buried by now. Failing to beat this utter shower of a conservative government tells you all you need to know.

Sometimes you can sit on the fence, sometimes sitting on the fence means you just get a post up your ass.

Which would explain why he seems to be so hard to remove from his position.

Prederick wrote:

UKIP's "court the YouTube edgelord demographic" campaign strategy does seem to be cratering, however. They've literally managed to make Farage and Co. seem like the reasonable ones.

It's actually comical. Loving it. Car crash stuff. The exodus of all their MEPs after Carl Benjamin's past came to light was brilliant. Didn't see it coming and I'm delighted I was wrong about their election chances. I sincerely hope he fails to get the seat now after UKIP topping the polls in the last election.

Does this mean the UK public is finally waking up to just what racist dickweeds many of their MPs (MsOfP?) are?

No, just that UKIP has pinned its flag to a bunch of YouTubers who may not be able to translate their views into electoral power (yet).

To be fair, it's happened in several other countries already (Brazil, the Phillipines), but the political landscape in those places isn't the landscape of the UK.

Farage was painstakingly clever to always give himself enough "plausible" deniability over the years. I might even grant you that he comes from a position of good faith and it's unfortunate that people of a certain view voted for him. There is also no denying that he was incredibly hard to corner and always conducted himself with a degree of charm and wit. In fact, there were people on this very forum that I had to advise caution in showing support for Farage during the financial crisis. I suspect something similar is going on in both Brazil and Phillippines, a cult of personality.

Gerard Batten, on the other hand, is none of those things. He is unapologetically nasty to Muslims and is pretty humourless to boot. The more he talks the more obvious to all what and who he is.

Axon wrote:

Farage was painstakingly clever to always give himself enough "plausible" deniability over the years.

This is true of Farage's public presentation once he went in to politics. Less so of reports of his behaviour before then