[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Nice detailed analysis of what exactly is going on with the Davis and Johnson resignations

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-r...

Trump/Brexit thread crossover!

Trump: "May has wrecked Brexit! No trade deal for you!"

Game Theory analysis of the current state of play from the LSE.

I really like this article, it nice to see all the options laid out without any bluster. Also it's the first time I've came across the different schools of Leavers referred to Singapore-on-Thames vs Belarus-on-Trent.

Well, the fan just blew a fuse with the amount of sh*t hitting it. The fear was the UK would argue down the clock and at the last minute try to bounce the EU into a favourable deal. Seems it has come to pass.

If you’re wondering what the average reaction here in Ireland is, it’s generally that the UK cannot be negotiated with in good faith so why should we bother dealing with them. Until the Tory’s or Labour can actually decide what they want once and for all it’s futile dealing with either.

And for those keeping score, this breaches the Good Friday agreement. So the UK cannot uphold international treaties anymore. Why should anyone deal with them now?

Well it's kind of a jerk thing to do, but she has the upper hand, so it's not surprising that at the end she would try to hold the EU over a barrel and wring more concessions out of them in the eleven--bahahahahahahaha. Oh man, couldn't finish that.

How could she possibly thing that the EU has any motivation to "evolve" on any of their positions?

Uh, isn't EU pretty much demanding an open border too. May just wont deliver on what is needed to have an open border.

The EU is offer is special status to Northern Ireland (border in the Irish sea) but the UK has refused that option. What we've had since then is having agreed to having no border on the Island of Ireland as well, the UK was left to come up with a counter proposal. As it turns out they never had one and intended to create a border in Ireland after all.

Part of me wouldn't be terribly surprised if this isn't a long play to get rid of Northern Ireland.

Axon wrote:

Part of me wouldn't be terribly surprised if this isn't a long play to get rid of Northern Ireland.

This is what I suspect. There have been a lot of articles and video pieces showing up in the UK press about how some Unionists are starting to think the unthinkable. This report from Channel 4 news is typical.

Shadout wrote:

Uh, isn't EU pretty much demanding an open border too. May just wont deliver on what is needed to have an open border.

If Northern Ireland has some special status in the UK where by they get favourable terms in trade etc with the EU, 2 things will happen. First, Scotland will immediately go to court to demand the same rights on the basis you can’t have different relationships with Europe depending on where you are in the UK. I’d imagine the Lib Dem’s will do the same thing. And the Greens and possibly Labour on the basis it disrupts the Tories - it would ultimately lead to the breakup of the union more than anything else I suspect.

Second, Northern Ireland will immediately become a criminal hotbed for smuggling, and it’s not like there aren’t large, well organised and competent organisations ready and waiting for their opportunity if that arises.

Northern Ireland is intractable because it’s intractable. You either have an internal border in the UK which whatever your views on Brexit is utterly ridiculous, or you break the good Friday agreement and hope for the best.

Edit: wrote that before I saw what was written above. Basically, that’s the only long term solution that would work - Northern Ireland stops being Northern Ireland. I have no idea what the appetite for that is in NI, all I know is from speaking to friends from that region, and appart from some hefty contempt for most of their politicians and parties, most of them aren’t really looking for a united Ireland as a solution regardless of their political or religious backgrounds.

Was more thinking; isn't EU perfectly fine with open borders to all of UK, as long as UK accepts a deal that makes them de-facto EU member in all but name.

Shadout wrote:

Was more thinking; isn't EU perfectly fine with open borders to all of UK, as long as UK accepts a deal that makes them de-facto EU member in all but name.

Without the constant moaning and whining from the UK about what they are doing? You bet it is!

Sorbicol wrote:

Edit: wrote that before I saw what was written above. Basically, that’s the only long term solution that would work - Northern Ireland stops being Northern Ireland. I have no idea what the appetite for that is in NI, all I know is from speaking to friends from that region, and appart from some hefty contempt for most of their politicians and parties, most of them aren’t really looking for a united Ireland as a solution regardless of their political or religious backgrounds.

It's not a prospect met with much relish in Ireland either. It's just, as you say, the only solution that works for the majority of Northern Ireland.

Of course, Northern Ireland need not just become part of Ireland. That'll not happen overnight. What would make more sense is Northern Ireland remains very close to what it is now but something akin to Canada or Australia. It would be free then to engage in it's own trade deals with, say, the EU. Very little day-to-day need to change for this to happen. The only issue would be a central bank to back the currency (Northern Ireland Sterling) but will the right will that can be resolved.

Jonman wrote:

My wife is getting the willies about how America is going (we should really stop watching The Handmaid's Tale), and has started to suggest that we consider moving back to England.

My response was to tell her to read some news.

Repeat after me: "aboot"

The Netherlands still has high trust in their news media. That's a good sign. Also they speak three languages and smoke pot all day, so that's comforting.

Hey there people who know more about Brexit than me! I was in my local pharmacy today (in the Republic of Ireland) picking up two Anapens (adrenaline auto-injectors for anaphylactic allergies - life-saving medicine) and apparently there's a severe shortage of these, and insulin, in Ireland because the UK is stockpiling them in preparation for Brexit. The pharmacist said the the 'pens I got were literally the only two he could get his hands on at the moment because of this. So I'm fine for now but what about the person who walks in tomorrow looking for some?

I'd love to hear from anyone who understands the situation a bit better than me? In my ignorance, I find it surprising that Ireland would be facing a shortage of something which isn't just imported from the UK as a result of Brexit. (I was actually prescribed a French brand but that wasn't available at all.) Plus these 'pens have a pretty short shelf-life (one-to-two years) so any stockpile will be useless quickly enough anyway.

My guess at the TL:DR version: pharmacutical approvals are slow. Brexit has/is happened at a much faster pace, and there's going to be catch up involved.

EpiPens?

There's a shortage related to who is approved to sell.

Been in the news in Canada.

jowner wrote:

EpiPens?

There's a shortage related to who is approved to sell.

They're the same things just different branding etc. Unfortunately there have been issues with supply for as long as I've been buying them but I've never been told I was lucky to get them before. I thought it was interesting too that the pharmacist specifically mentioned Brexit as the reason for that.

Is the UK anticipating problems with their supply of Anapen and/or insulin after they leave the EU?

How well informed was your pharmacist?

Jonman wrote:

My guess at the TL:DR version: pharmacutical approvals are slow. Brexit has/is happened at a much faster pace, and there's going to be catch up involved.

I work in the pharmaceutical industry (have done for the best part of 20 years now) and while I don’t know the specifics of EpiPen manufacture and distribution I suspect there is a shortage of EpiPens because there is a shortage of EpiPens - unless they’ve been messing around with the design of them and are struggling to get approval for the new designs. Brexit shouldn’t really come in to it. Yet.

In the longer term Brexits raises a number of very thorny problems around drug/medicine/device approval and distribution. At the moment, drug approval in the EU is Union wide - each countries’ regulatory body working within the European Medicines Agency (EMA) framework and so if a drug is approved in any EU State then it’s approved everywhere else, well more or less. It’s slightly more complicated than that but more or less that’s what happens. The UK regulatory body - Medicine and healthcare Product Regulatory Agency (MHRA) - is a leading authority in the EMA, so much so it was based in London. It’s now moving to Germany and the MHRAs influence has, for obvious reasons been heavily curtailed.

In a soft Brexit the expectation would be that the UK would accept the EUs audit and approval process and vice Versa, and nothing would really change.

In a hard Brexit that would go out of the window. Nobody really knows what that would mean. Technically it would mean that all drugs would have to be resubmitted for approval (both in the EU and the UK) if the approval of individual state regulatory bodies could no longer be accepted - legally there seems to be some concensus that that would be the case regardless, soft or hard brexit. That’ll take a long time (there aren’t that many inspectors) cost Pharma and medical device companies a boatload of money for no good reason, and potentially leave a hell of a lot of people without the medication they need to stay alive.

That’s a doomsday scenario admittedly, but you’ll note that it’s a discussion you’ll never hear a politician have in public.

In the long term no matter what happens, if there isn’t an agreement between the EU and the UK then the UK will really start to suffer with access to new and innovative medicines. That’s purely down to numbers from the point of view of a Pharma or Med device company. Do you want approval for a market of 500 million people, or one to a small pokey island of 60 million that, thanks to the NHS has a very controlled non-competitive market for your new miracle cancer cure. It’s not rocket science (quite literally) and all the ways around it are not good, both for patients and the NHS.

We’re very good at making medicines in this country and inventing new ones (seriously - it’s something we should be really proud of. I’m not saying that just because I work in the industry - honest!) but Brexit is extremely likely to significantly damage our ability to do so unless it’s the softest of soft brexits.

Sorbicol wrote:

That’s a doomsday scenario admittedly, but you’ll note that it’s a discussion you’ll never hear a politician have in public.

That's really interesting Sorbicol, thanks for the detailed response. So maybe the info the pharmacist had was a mix of different half-truths.

Jonman wrote:

How well informed was your pharmacist?

He once asked me to sign a form that he had literally just watched me sign. He was pointing and looking at my signature at the time... So, yeah, there's that...

I was reading about an Epi-Pen shortage in the States awhile back as well. I'm guessing that it's global.

I know that some medicines were manufactured in Puerto Rico and that took a huge hit after the Hurricane and glacially slow recovery, not sure if that includes Epi-Pens.

Pro-tip: Don't develop an anaphylactic allergy.

I don't want to completely de-rail this thread...but that article raises an important point. These 'pens can actually last much longer than the 'use by' dates would suggest. Maybe these supply issues will lead to the shelf-life being extended. That'd suit me cause at the moment I'm spending €100+ a year on 'pens that aren't being used.

The thing about UK stockpiling medicine is not that outlandish though - apparently UK customs are woefully unequipped to deal with a no deal Brexit. From Charlies Stross' blog:

Current warnings are that a no-deal Brexit would see trade at the port of Dover collapse on day one, cutting the UK off from the continent; supermarkets in Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within a couple of weeks. After two weeks we'd be running out of fuel as well.

Note that this warning comes from the civil service, not anti-Brexit campaigners, and is a medium-bad scenario—the existence of an "Armageddon scenario" has been mooted but its contents not disclosed.

In the past month, the Health Secretary has admitted that the government is making plans to stockpile vital blood products and medicines in case of a no-deal Brexit, and the Brexit secretary is allegedly making plans to ensure there are "adequate food supplies" to cover a no-deal exit.

Alien Love Gardener wrote:

The thing about UK stockpiling medicine is not that outlandish though - apparently UK customs are woefully unequipped to deal with a no deal Brexit.

I think I liked it better when I thought my pharmacist didn't know what he was talking about... It's hard to believe that in 2018 there are conversations being had about making sure the UK has enough food and medicine...

Stevintendo wrote:

Pro-tip: Don't develop an anaphylactic allergy.

I don't want to completely de-rail this thread...but that article raises an important point. These 'pens can actually last much longer than the 'use by' dates would suggest. Maybe these supply issues will lead to the shelf-life being extended. That'd suit me cause at the moment I'm spending €100+ a year on 'pens that aren't being used.

Don't worry--if there's anything I've learned from playing Fallout 4, it's that medicines, like packaged foods, will stay good for at least a couple hundred years.

Stevintendo wrote:
Alien Love Gardener wrote:

The thing about UK stockpiling medicine is not that outlandish though - apparently UK customs are woefully unequipped to deal with a no deal Brexit.

I think I liked it better when I thought my pharmacist didn't know what he was talking about... It's hard to believe that in 2018 there are conversations being had about making sure the UK has enough food and medicine...

I liked it better when a country dependent on imports didn't decide to torch the basis for its trade agreements with no thought as to what'd happen next, but here we are.

As an outsider looking in I still can't get my head around it.

Mr GT Chris wrote:

As an outsider looking in I still can't get my head around it.

That’s OK, we’re all insiders and can’t get our heads around it either.

Sorbicol wrote:
Mr GT Chris wrote:

As an outsider looking in I still can't get my head around it.

That’s OK, we’re all insiders and can’t get our heads around it either.

YUP.