[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Couldn't we have limited the number of global powers going batsh*t crazy to one at a time? Have any numbers come out on the financial impact this has had on the UK already? The uncertainty alone seems like it would result in a freeze of almost all investment, in England especially.

Bank of England already issued a statement outlining that fact, Kehama. At the same time they've increased interest rates due to rising inflation (root cause is falling value in Sterling) even though the economy is slowing.

The one to really watch is the City of London. This is the dam holding back the worst fallout. I seriously doubt it will survive unless the UK basically concedes on almost every demand EU negotiating team puts to them.

I beginning to have a strong suspicion that this was May's plan along.

Sometimes I really worry that David Davis is actually insane, this morning he's warning the EU that they can't cherry pick the terms of the Free Trade deal.
Guardian link to the article.

So it seems he's going to make a play that the City must be part of any Free Trade Deal which means it's a full goods and services deal which means it's the Single Market which means good bye to the No Free Movement of Labour red line.

CPGGrey had a video after the Brexit vote where he predicted that the most likely outcome of this is that the UK will take a transition deal that never ends. It's be one of those pub conversations that you'll get in, "Ah but don't you know the UK isn't officially in the EU, it has been leaving the EU for thirty years."

Our ol' buddy Farage has been popping up in the news again lately.

NIgel Farage has MEP salary docked to recoup misspent EU funds

The former Ukip leader, who recently bemoaned being “53, separated and skint”, will lose €40,000 (£35,500) in total, the Guardian has learned, after European parliament auditors concluded he had misspent that amount of EU funds.

oh and

Farage's call for second Brexit vote greeted with glee by remainers

Nigel Farage’s surprise call for Britain to prepare for a second EU referendum has ignited hopes among anti-Brexit campaigners that both sides of the debate will back a poll on Theresa May’s final deal.

The former Ukip leader shocked his colleagues on Thursday by suggesting another Brexit vote should be held, arguing it would lead to a more decisive victory for the leave campaign and silence remain supporters for a generation

Holy crap, Farage may actually help fix this mess.

BadKen wrote:

Holy crap, Farage may actually help fix this mess.

to paraphrase a friend, I really doubt it. A second referendum will fix nothing. To settle the issue you'd need an absolute landslide in one side's favour. What we'd probably get is a marginal victory for remain and continued infighting from the brexiteers.

There is a sickness at the heart of British political and economic life and until both of those are resolved no amount of referendums will fix it.

DanB wrote:
BadKen wrote:

Holy crap, Farage may actually help fix this mess.

to paraphrase a friend, I really doubt it. A second referendum will fix nothing. To settle the issue you'd need an absolute landslide in one side's favour. What we'd probably get is a marginal victory for remain and continued infighting from the brexiteers.

There is a sickness at the heart of British political and economic life and until both of those are resolved no amount of referendums will fix it.

I wonder how much of this sickness has been brought about by the rise of our information society. We all have the ability to see/broadcast injustice and imbalance much easier. Whether they're large or small, endemic or imported, old or new, they're shoved in our faces every day. Those who see them are faced with choices. Push for a change? Accept it as necessary? Ignore it and move on? We're asking our governments to represent us as we polarize among these and other options. So many changes are happening so quickly. Though I'm hopeful overall, cracks are starting to show in some very old structures which are becoming more dysfunctional as they fail to adapt.

LouZiffer wrote:

I wonder how much of this sickness has been brought about by the rise of our information society. We all have the ability to see/broadcast injustice and imbalance much easier. Whether they're large or small, endemic or imported, old or new, they're shoved in our faces every day. Those who see them are faced with choices. Push for a change? Accept it as necessary? Ignore it and move on? We're asking our governments to represent us as we polarize among these and other options. So many changes are happening so quickly. Though I'm hopeful overall, cracks are starting to show in some very old structures which are becoming more dysfunctional as they fail to adapt.

I think it's more to do with people's inability to objectively scrutinize what they are reading/watching/listening to and critically evaluate what it is they are being told. It really didn't take a lot of brain power to realise that the NHS was never going to get another £350 million a week if we left the EU. Simple understanding of "how the world works" would tell you that's a very large amount of money to find as excess over the course of a year when nobody could tell you exactly what the impact of Brexit would actually be, because no-one expected the public to vote leave. Even the simplest of people should be able to understand that losing access to the single market would negatively impact the UKs bottom line, even if it would only be short term (in the extremely unlikely "best brexit scenario" situation vote leave generally peddled)

Of course, you then have to add the layer that people will actively "disbelieve" something factually accurate if it does not support their own beliefs, bias and prejudices.

Now, I don't think that the 24 hr news cycle we currently live in is necessarily a bad thing, but peoples ability to parse all that information, tease out what's true, what false, what they need to question and what is out right malicious lying needs to be a hell of lot better than it is, and it's something that needs to be taught. From a young age. You don't hear much about it coming part of the national curriculum do you?

And finally, of course, no matter how offensive or politically incorrect it is to say it - some people are just stupid. Monumentally so. You can't really factor for that no matter what you do.

Sorbicol wrote:
LouZiffer wrote:

I wonder how much of this sickness has been brought about by the rise of our information society. We all have the ability to see/broadcast injustice and imbalance much easier. Whether they're large or small, endemic or imported, old or new, they're shoved in our faces every day. Those who see them are faced with choices. Push for a change? Accept it as necessary? Ignore it and move on? We're asking our governments to represent us as we polarize among these and other options. So many changes are happening so quickly. Though I'm hopeful overall, cracks are starting to show in some very old structures which are becoming more dysfunctional as they fail to adapt.

I think it's more to do with people's inability to objectively scrutinize what they are reading/watching/listening to and critically evaluate what it is they are being told. It really didn't take a lot of brain power to realise that the NHS was never going to get another £350 million a week if we left the EU. Simple understanding of "how the world works" would tell you that's a very large amount of money to find as excess over the course of a year when nobody could tell you exactly what the impact of Brexit would actually be, because no-one expected the public to vote leave. Even the simplest of people should be able to understand that losing access to the single market would negatively impact the UKs bottom line, even if it would only be short term (in the extremely unlikely "best brexit scenario" situation vote leave generally peddled)

Of course, you then have to add the layer that people will actively "disbelieve" something factually accurate if it does not support their own beliefs, bias and prejudices.

Now, I don't think that the 24 hr news cycle we currently live in is necessarily a bad thing, but peoples ability to parse all that information, tease out what's true, what false, what they need to question and what is out right malicious lying needs to be a hell of lot better than it is, and it's something that needs to be taught. From a young age. You don't hear much about it coming part of the national curriculum do you?

And finally, of course, no matter how offensive or politically incorrect it is to say it - some people are just stupid. Monumentally so. You can't really factor for that no matter what you do.

That's another facet of the existence of an information society. What you're presented with doesn't have to be true. It could be a lie tailored to support some people's existing biases. Heck, it can purposefully be inflammatory to some and supportive to others at the same time. Our people and our social structures are playing catch-up.

I agree that it's not necessarily a bad thing. We're all networked, walking cameras and microphones now. That has its good sides as it forces more transparency and makes it difficult for bad actors to keep their actions hidden. However, it gives rise to an up to the minute culture that even I have to step away from occasionally to maintain a healthy perspective.

Donald Tusk wrote:

Finally on Brexit. Leaders decided unanimously that sufficient progress had been achieved on the first phase with citizens’ rights, Ireland and the financial settlement as priorities. Accordingly, the EU27 adopted a first set of guidelines for the next phase of the talks. This would not have been possible without the unity of the EU27, the hard work of Michel Barnier and the constructive effort of prime minister May.

As regards our future relations, what we need today is more clarity on the UK’s vision. Once we have that, the leaders will meet and decide on the way the EU sees its future relationship with the UK as a third country. It also means a new set of guidelines. The hardest work is still ahead of us, and time is limited. We must maintain the unity of the EU27 in every scenario, and personally I have no doubt that we will. If the UK government sticks to its decision to leave, Brexit will become a reality – with all its negative consequences - in March next year. Unless there is a change of heart among our British friends.

Wasn’t it David Davis himself who said: “If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy.” We, here on the continent, haven’t had a change of heart. Our hearts are still open to you. Thank you.

This is heartbreaking. Full Text.

Next Generation of MPs will undo Brexit if it doesn't deleiver for young people - Greening

She isn't wrong, they will overturn this and take us back into Europe, Just we won't have our spiecal snowflake membership benefits anymore.

What will Brexit 2.0 mean for UK?

This is going to end up like a MMO, I swear. Just patch after patch after patch after patch.

Welcome to the next phase.

The Brexit process never went away. But the beavering of officials has rather less political intrigue to it than the interventions of the Brexit big beasts.

Well, nipping in before the EU publishes its official approach to part two of the saga on Monday, David Davis will tomorrow have a big moment of his own.

The Brexit Secretary will make a speech formally setting out the UK's hopes and goals for the transition period with the aspiration it can all be sorted out by March.

LouZiffer wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:
LouZiffer wrote:

I wonder how much of this sickness has been brought about by the rise of our information society. We all have the ability to see/broadcast injustice and imbalance much easier. Whether they're large or small, endemic or imported, old or new, they're shoved in our faces every day. Those who see them are faced with choices. Push for a change? Accept it as necessary? Ignore it and move on? We're asking our governments to represent us as we polarize among these and other options. So many changes are happening so quickly. Though I'm hopeful overall, cracks are starting to show in some very old structures which are becoming more dysfunctional as they fail to adapt.

I think it's more to do with people's inability to objectively scrutinize what they are reading/watching/listening to and critically evaluate what it is they are being told. It really didn't take a lot of brain power to realise that the NHS was never going to get another £350 million a week if we left the EU. Simple understanding of "how the world works" would tell you that's a very large amount of money to find as excess over the course of a year when nobody could tell you exactly what the impact of Brexit would actually be, because no-one expected the public to vote leave. Even the simplest of people should be able to understand that losing access to the single market would negatively impact the UKs bottom line, even if it would only be short term (in the extremely unlikely "best brexit scenario" situation vote leave generally peddled)

Of course, you then have to add the layer that people will actively "disbelieve" something factually accurate if it does not support their own beliefs, bias and prejudices.

Now, I don't think that the 24 hr news cycle we currently live in is necessarily a bad thing, but peoples ability to parse all that information, tease out what's true, what false, what they need to question and what is out right malicious lying needs to be a hell of lot better than it is, and it's something that needs to be taught. From a young age. You don't hear much about it coming part of the national curriculum do you?

And finally, of course, no matter how offensive or politically incorrect it is to say it - some people are just stupid. Monumentally so. You can't really factor for that no matter what you do.

That's another facet of the existence of an information society. What you're presented with doesn't have to be true. It could be a lie tailored to support some people's existing biases. Heck, it can purposefully be inflammatory to some and supportive to others at the same time. Our people and our social structures are playing catch-up.

I agree that it's not necessarily a bad thing. We're all networked, walking cameras and microphones now. That has its good sides as it forces more transparency and makes it difficult for bad actors to keep their actions hidden. However, it gives rise to an up to the minute culture that even I have to step away from occasionally to maintain a healthy perspective.

I think it's cos people are arseholes.

All this has happened before. All this will happen again.

So it turns out they do have impact reports and it wasn't good. Well, I for one am shocked.

Seriously, this farce is miserable. We are still waiting for the British government to state their desired position. They clearly don't have one and are putting off stating one as it will probably trigger another general election. Frankly, I agree with this article from the FT reprinted in the IT

If there is a slim hope that Britain can emerge wounded rather than broken, it lies in the possibility that things will get still worse in the short term. Mendacity, chaos and division could end in complete paralysis - with parliament failing to agree on any form of Brexit. If Britain does remain part of the EU after all this, it will be because, in its present state, it is simply incapable of leaving.
Axon wrote:

So it turns out they do have impact reports and it wasn't good. Well, I for one am shocked.

I am 0% surprised

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVGWlBMWsAY2xVL.jpg)

From Matthew Paris. in The Times. That is a Tory Party member in a euroskeptic paper.

Well, Boris Johnson is taking another shot at laying out Britain post-Brexit in a speech this morning. If it was to win over the people opposed to Brexit it was a waste of everyone's time as far as I can make out.

Merkel 'curious not frustrated' after Theresa May meeting

Aren't we all, Angela.

Angela Merkel has said she is "not frustrated" by the Brexit process but is "curious" to know more about the UK's aims after meeting Theresa May.

The German chancellor said she hoped to establish "common ground" on future trade goals in the coming months and wanted a "close partnership" of equals.

Mrs May said she wanted a "bold and ambitious" trade partnership as well as a new security arrangement with the EU.

But amid calls for more UK detail, she said it was not a "one-way street".

Friday's meeting between the two leaders at Berlin's Chancellery comes ahead of a speech on Saturday in which Mrs May will set out the "security partnership" she envisages with European partners at the annual Munich Security Conference.

British ministers are making a series of speeches mapping out the "road to Brexit" to counter criticism of a lack of clarity and contradictions in their vision of the UK's future relationship with the EU once it leaves in March 2019.

Asked whether she was frustrated by the UK's position, Mrs Merkel said: "I'm not frustrated at all. I'm just curious how Britain envisages this future partnership and obviously we also have our own vested interests as regards, for example, economic commitments."

She added: "We would like to preserve this close partnership and maybe both sides, in a way, are in a process of learning and trying to find out where we find common ground."

Asked about the possible trade relationship the UK could expect with the EU, she said the partnership would not be as close as it currently is, but that this did not mean "cherry picking" from the UK side would be required in what she anticipated would be a "very complex set of negotiations".

Why even bring that up if there isn't a reasonable chance it might happen?

Although I will be disappointed not to see the outfits.

Seriously though, I shall file this under "Things that wealthy white men feel about the world"

May would make a terrible Aunty Entity anyway.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWeMJ33X0AAMHEs.jpg)

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