[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

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Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

We've had the referendum, now for the negotiation.

Seems like Theresa May said there was no way she would allow UK to break apart due to Brexit. Anyone know how things are going in Scotland now, did they accept their fate, or is a new referendum still brewing?

You were quick, Shadout. Did you have a Google alert?

Seriously, though, the SNP are keeping their powder dry. Let the Scots see the colour of the Tory's money before they make their counter offer, I suspect. If May holds true to her word, next year is going to be a rollercoaster (German and French elections, Article 50 triggered)

It was totally random - refreshed the forum after yet another Rocket League loss*!

*Nearly as painful as Brexit.

So, May has stated that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March next year. I did not see this coming. It also appears that this is going to be a "hard" brexit which seems an odd decision to me. Some are thinking it's a negotiating tactic and perhaps it is.

Meanwhile in Ireland, where the UK will have it's only physical border with the EU, the issue of how it will function post Brexit is already becoming contentious.

Mr Flanagan (Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs) has been engaged in intensive diplomacy with his EU counterparts in recent months and he said the “unique position” of the North was “appreciated”. However, senior officials say it will be a considerable challenge to transform that into a legally binding agreement that recognises a special status for the North.

I'm being parochial here but this issue has the potential to spark something nasty.

I don't really understand what is going on. My feeling is that sanity won't be restored until the economic implications are clear.

My gut is that the markets didn't believe until yesterday that Brexit might mean Hard Brexit. Honestly a UK with the Norway option doesn't make much of difference to anything. If we end up at that place then this current sterling devaluation is pretty good for the UK economy. Sterling's strength was hurting exporters. So inside the single market but with a bit of uncertainty might allow the UK to become the European manufacturing hub. Since you can't just keep your currency low like the Chinese have for years.

Yesterday's climb on the FTSE100 and FTSE250 can be interpreted as people sheltering money from inflation/devaluation in real economy assets.

The IMF saying that they were wrong to warning of such dire consequences for a vote to leave is another thing I don't understand. I thought the warning was based on a hard Brexit actually happening there and then. Didn't Cameron claim he was going to invoke Article 50 "immediately" after the vote? Do the predictions not hold for if it is actually invoked?

DoveBrown, let me first state that as an Irishman I don't want to see a downturn in the UK economy. We sell a huge amount of consumer items to the UK and any downturn hurts us. The falling Sterling is already impacting our farmers.

Oh and welcome to D&D.

The filpside to a weak Sterling is, due to the UK's reliences on importing, the prices in the shops will rise. This will mean people will buy less resulting in the economy downturning. Exporters will do well, that is why the FTSE is climbing, but you cannot see your currency contract by 20% and avoid a recession. It's economic gravity.

Don't forget the City of London. Any change to the current environment would see the City loosing it's ability to offer services within the Single Market and Eurozone. That is roughly 10% of the UK economy. As for manufacturing, perhaps, but that will take some time to ramp up and certainly not in 2 years.

As for the prediction, yes, they were based on Cameron's promise of triggering Article 50 the day after the referendum. It didn't happen so we've had some repreve but I cannot see how a 'hard' brexit won't be painful. As for possible Norway or Swiss deals, I don't see those as options or as benign either. Even if the UK government got them there would still be fallout. For example the City of London would not survive a Norway deal.

In more amusing news, Nigel Farrage is back in charge of UKIP after Diane James lasting 18 days as leader.

None of this makes sense to me. The UK needs the EU more than the other way round, and we have no cards to play - if they think that Juncker will kowtow just because we play God Save The Queen when we ask for it, they're sadly mistaken. It'll shred our economy. What is May playing at? Labour is so neutered right now there's no threat from Corbyn, so I have to assume there are powerful internal Tory blocs that are forcing this behaviour.

I'm hoping that we'll get a legal challenge to a unilateral Article 50 trigger. The referendum has zero legal weight, so constitutionally it's an incumbent government deciding on it by itself without a bill passing both houses.

Unless the Tories have truly taken leave of their senses, it just feels like a mixture of idiocy and racism. This really doesn't feel like my country any more. It's all profoundly depressing

"None of this makes sense to me," says the US.

I'll be lurking and learning.

DudleySmith wrote:

it just feels like a mixture of idiocy and racism

That's kind of the slogan of 2016 isn't it? Not that it's the only year that can say that. In fact that may be the tag our planet has in the galactic encyclopedias.

Yonder wrote:
DudleySmith wrote:

it just feels like a mixture of idiocy and racism

That's kind of the slogan of 2016 isn't it? Not that it's the only year that can say that. In fact that may be the tag our planet has in the galactic encyclopedias.

Really wish this was in a more yoink-able format. Would be great for a sig.

"If you're a researcher on this book thing and you were on Earth, you must have been gathering material on it."

"Well, I was able to extend the original entry a bit, yes."

"Let me see what it says in this edition, then. I've got to see it."
... "What? Racist! Is that all it's got to say? Racist! One word! ... Well, for God's sake I hope you managed to rectify that a bit."

"Oh yes, well I managed to transmit a new entry off to the editor. He had to trim it a bit, but it's still an improvement."

"And what does it say now?" asked Arthur.

"Mostly racist," admitted Ford with a slightly embarrassed cough.

Shadout wrote:

Seems like Theresa May said there was no way she would allow UK to break apart due to Brexit. Anyone know how things are going in Scotland now, did they accept their fate, or is a new referendum still brewing?

Hah! No accepting of any fates here. There's just not much we can do right now except damage control, and to continue to remind the rest of the world that the ENTIRE country hasn't taken leave of it's senses. Just the bit down south.

...at least until Article 50 is declared. Then I think we're in for interesting times.

Good lord UKIP are just the worst.

The new favourite for leading the party got taken to hospital for a brain scan after getting goaded into a punch-up with one of his colleagues.

A source close to the party said the fight happened when Mike Hookem, MEP, turned up to the Strasbourg meeting at 10am and “made a few choice words” to Woolfe about “defecting to the Tories”.

“Stephen Woolfe has then taken his jacket off, walked over and said, ‘Right, you outside now’ or words to that effect,” the source told the Guardian. “They went outside and Stephen Woolfe got the brunt of it.”

It is understood that Woolfe walked away from the fight and appeared well enough to vote half an hour later. However, Woolfe left the vote mid-way through and then collapsed before he was taken to hospital.

The source added that Woolfe is thought to be conscious and recovering well to hospital treatment. Nathan Gill, his fellow MEP and a close friend, is at Woolfe’s hospital bedside.

The source said he is concerned about what will happen next to both MEPs. “Stephen was the aggressor but Hookem has hit him and I just know the way that will come across,” the contact said.

I've come round to UKIP being a brilliant Tory gambit to make them look better. The problem is that as the Tories race to the bottom UKIP will have to start doing truly monstrous things to maintain the Arsehole Gap.

So UKIP is literally self-destructing?

sometimesdee wrote:

So UKIP is literally self-destructing?

More fizzling out as their policy positions get adopted by the party in power.

So, ummmm. The UK is going full on Nazi?

https://twitter.com/pjm1kbw/status/7...

MrDeVil909 wrote:

So, ummmm. The UK is going full on Nazi?

https://twitter.com/pjm1kbw/status/7...

As Prince Philip once alluded, they'll have to get rid of half the NHS.

Remember, Dee, it's the UK Independence Party. Well, now the vote for independence has gone their way, what exactly is the party about?

Hating others.
I'm pretty sure that is enough. If they can tone down the internal hate a little bit.

Yeah... Doesn't seem to be working out for them. They hated Diane James out in only 18 days... And she's one of them!

Robear wrote:

Remember, Dee, it's the UK Independence Party. Well, now the vote for independence has gone their way, what exactly is the party about? :-)

I get that, but I thought they'd just, you know, disband, not try to pummel each other out if existence!

At this point, just want to share something Nicola Sturgeon posted to facebook yesterday, for contrast.

Like most people, I read the headlines coming from Tory conference this week with a mixture of disbelief and horror.

They’ve made clear they want a “hard Brexit” – regardless of the impact on jobs and our economy.

NHS doctors from overseas are being told they’re not welcome any more.
Employers are to be forced to list the number of foreign workers they employ.
And – perhaps most disgraceful of all – they described EU nationals living in the UK as negotiating “cards” to be used in Brexit bargaining.
The Tories’ vision of Brexit Britain is one I will have no part in, and will never subscribe to.
We all have a duty to stand up against intolerance in all its forms – and to make sure that Scotland is a welcoming place for all those who choose to live here.
So, I’ve a favour to ask – for your help to spread that message far and wide. Use your social media channels - using #WeAreScotland - to tell the world why you’re proud to call Scotland home.

IMAGE(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/p720x720/14570717_1235517703156810_2773162243962114994_o.jpg)

Here are just some of the ways you can get involved:
Share your reasons why Scotland is home to you using the #WeAreScotland hashtag:
· Take a picture of yourself, or film yourself (using your smartphone, camera or webcam) and post it on your personal Facebook or Twitter with your story, using the #WeAreScotland hashtag. This should be short and snappy and not too long for social media sharing.
· If you don’t want to share a picture or video, you are more than welcome to share your thoughts in words alone. This could be a longer set of reasons on your personal Facebook page, or a series of short tweets with a single reason. Just make sure you use the hashtag #WeAreScotland

Join me. Tell the world about the open, inclusive, and tolerant country we call home.

(#WeAreScotland, obvs )

My parents, along with their very young family, had to flee England in the 70s' out of fear. I'm now talking to friends in the UK with young kids and while they are obviously not in the same situation as my parents were, they echo the concerns and plans my parents had. Good on Nicola Sturgeon. Shame on you May, Rudd, et al. And Corbyn isn't getting pass either.

In one way I'm not surprised by the Tories but I'm profoundly disappointed in the Labour Party.

My wife and I both agree that, despite spending 34 combined years in the UK and considering it home in many ways, we're glad we left when we did.

James O'Brien asks a caller "which EU law are you most looking forward to losing"

Ashley from Pinner said that he was willing to take a "short-term" hit on his business in order to free Britain from the bureaucratic red tape of the EU.

James asked for just one European law that he was excited to repeal. And Ashley couldn't name a single one.

Eventually, Ashley laughed as he said: "The shape of your bananas."

But James responded: "It's not funny, is it? The pound is at the lowest it's been since 1985, you just said "any law" and I'm just asking you to name one.

"We both know that bananas was a lie made up by Boris Johnson. Remind me which side he was on during the Leave campaign.

"What is the law? You know you were going to take short-term economic damage, you knew that all your customers would do as a newly-formed electrician company. Every single customer in the country is going to be potentially worse off than they were before the vote.

"So I'm just wondering what those laws are that you won't have to obey any more that made you vote for this short-term economic hit.

"Can you name one?"

Ashley's response: "I wouldn't be able to, no."

Privilege AND racism...

Maq wrote:

James O'Brien asks a caller "which EU law are you most looking forward to losing"

Ashley from Pinner said that he was willing to take a "short-term" hit on his business in order to free Britain from the bureaucratic red tape of the EU.

James asked for just one European law that he was excited to repeal. And Ashley couldn't name a single one.

Eventually, Ashley laughed as he said: "The shape of your bananas."

But James responded: "It's not funny, is it? The pound is at the lowest it's been since 1985, you just said "any law" and I'm just asking you to name one.

"We both know that bananas was a lie made up by Boris Johnson. Remind me which side he was on during the Leave campaign.

"What is the law? You know you were going to take short-term economic damage, you knew that all your customers would do as a newly-formed electrician company. Every single customer in the country is going to be potentially worse off than they were before the vote.

"So I'm just wondering what those laws are that you won't have to obey any more that made you vote for this short-term economic hit.

"Can you name one?"

Ashley's response: "I wouldn't be able to, no."

He's looking forward to some Proper British bureaucratic red tape, none of this foreign muck.

I mean, there's a reason that the national sport of Britain is queuing, right?

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