Brexit (June 23rd)

France could surely use the economic boost.
But for the financial companies going from relatively conservative UK to left-leaning France would be a bit of a change.

Could also be afraid that it would dampen the enthusiasm toward reigning in the financial sector in EU if France got strong vested interests in them.

EU would be amazingly stupid if they gave UK access to common market without free movement. But stupid is the 'new' common denominator for politics everywhere it seems, so hard to rule out.

Shadout wrote:

But stupid is the 'new' common denominator for politics everywhere it seems, so hard to rule out.


DanB wrote:
Axon wrote:

So, what do you think Hollande will give for relenting on free movement?

I truly believe this will not/can not happen. Article 50 negotiations have to happen by total consensus on the EU side. Any deal that gives free trade without free movement will be vetoed by one of the states, especially the E.European states who somewhat rely on free movement to keep their unemployment numbers sane. Plus it would create a diplomatic quagmire with Switzerland who want that very same deal.

And it would set precedent for member states to re-negotiate their access to the common market AND would give yet more ammunition for far right parties to agitate and make gains.

It would just be a terrible thing for the EU to offer or settle in negotiations.

Although I could imagine that in the meantime and away from the Brexit negotiations the EU might pass legislation that redefines the terms of free movement in the common market. Say, allowing states to restrict inward free movement when domestic unemployment rises past a certain threshold. That's the kind of thing that would protect free movement and at the same time address a lot of the working class angst around immigration.

Agree completely. As we've learned with the EU this impossible becomes very probable as soon as the political winds shift. Who's to say that in return for that, France and other allies argue that any services that are Euro dependent have be governed by the Eurozone. National interests are still the major factor in the EU due to that fact that all the power remains in the respective head of state.

On another front, what do you make of the delay's at Dover? Someone acting the maggot? For other Goodjers, ferry cross from England to France. France is a very popular holiday destination for us on the British Isles.

I suspect there may be a bit of "So, you want the borders back? We can do that... Let us talk to the unions and we'll get back to you in October... Enjoy your holiday!" on the French side. But it also sounds like volume is an issue; I suspect the delays would have been smaller but still painful if Brexit had gone differently.

Of course, the terror attacks are an issue, but if they were a real influence, France would have *increased* it's border guard presence, not decreased it for the weekend.