Brexit (June 23rd)

I had the opportunity this morning to have a chat with a Northern Londoner holidaying in Sydney visiting relatives.

He was rather disgruntled that out of the 70% participating voters, it came down to what, 37% leave voters to win the advisory referendum; so effectively, 70% * 37% = about 26% of the full voter base voted to leave the EU and the remaining 75% of abstainers and remain voters are affected by what is a minority of the full population. Thus he lamented the lack of compulsory voting which is the system we have in Australia.

His perspective is that the adverse impacts may not be felt if the UK is able to secure EU market access like Norway and Switzerland (whom I understand are non-EU members) but they will probably pay access fees just like those two countries and it will be EU membership under the guise of non-membership.

But in any event, there will probably be a new referendum as it only takes 100,000 signatories to a petition to cause Parliament to reconsider the issue, and that petition has already garnered over 3 million signatures.

Bfgp and everyone else, for membership status CGP Grey has a nice little video.

While the UK could join the EEA or the EFTA as a solution to this, both those scenarios have a very high likelihood, if not a dead cert, of London losing it's status as the financial capital of Europe. This is probably the single greatest impact facing the UK as the services provided by these financial companies make up roughly 10% of the GDP.

While this could impact me personally quite favourably, such an impact would drive Ireland into another recession. Globally it probably will all be recovered but the UK and Ireland would be diminished.

This doesn't even include other concerns with industries such as the car manufacturers.

Bfgp wrote:

But in any event, there will probably be a new referendum as it only takes 100,000 signatories to a petition to cause Parliament to reconsider the issue, and that petition has already garnered over 3 million signatures.

Ironically that petition was started by a Leave voter who was convinced they would lose, so he started it before the results had been declared. It was since adopted by the Remain campaign much to his annoyance .

Unfortunately, it also garnered signatures from people across Europe and elsewhere so has been pretty much declared null and void and I think might even have been investigated for "fraud". So I don't put out much hope that it'll be considered valid by anyone.

I must confess I don't know a lot about EU politics. The Londoner I spoke with seemed to think most of Europe was trending towards a closer political unity and that the UK mindset is (largely) in step however the disenfranchised old and impoverished Brits were using the referendum to voice their discontent as to how the UK had been left behind in the globalisation process.

Axon wrote:

Bfgp and everyone else, for membership status CGP Grey has a nice little video.

While the UK could join the EEA or the EFTA as a solution to this, both those scenarios have a very high likelihood, if not a dead cert, of London losing it's status as the financial capital of Europe. This is probably the single greatest impact facing the UK as the services provided by these financial companies make up roughly 10% of the GDP.

While this could impact me personally quite favourably, such an impact would drive Ireland into another recession. Globally it probably will all be recovered but the UK and Ireland would be diminished.

This doesn't even include other concerns with industries such as the car manufacturers.

Odds are that as an English speaking EU nation Ireland could capture quite a bit of the fleeing financial services industry (Scotland too should it get independence)

We'll do our best but our feeling is Paris and Frankfurt will get the lion's share. If (when?) the UK loses that sector, whatever we can scavenge from the UK won't make up for the impact to our services and agricultural sectors as the wealth generators are now predominately in other markets.

What appears to be unfolding
it the we (the Irish) are trying to make the case for Scotland to remain in the EU. If I was to hazard a guess, our government are trying to see the majority of the financial sector moving to Scotland. This would keep most of that business on the British Isles which would suit us. Not so much England but we have to worry about ourselves now.

Edit: When I said it would impact me favourably, my work depends on the financial industry in Dublin.

Bfgp wrote:

I must confess I don't know a lot about EU politics. The Londoner I spoke with seemed to think most of Europe was trending towards a closer political unity and that the UK mindset is (largely) in step however the disenfranchised old and impoverished Brits were using the referendum to voice their discontent as to how the UK had been left behind in the globalisation process.

Excellent summary. It's just I fail to see this act won't have long lasting impacts.

And now Gove sticks the knife in Johnson's back with Darce and Murdoch cheering him on. Brilliant.

So...let's see. Current choice for next (un-elected) Prime Minster is between a snivelling yes-man married to a vile daily mail columnist with the political hunger of Lady MacBeth, a woman who wants to have the power to monitor everyone in the country 24-7, two (count-em) MP's with barely concealed anti LGBT views who opposed equal marriage ...and a gormless buffoon.

Good luck everybody!

Buffoon is down.

dibs wrote:

Buffoon is down.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could hear his sigh of relief from up here

It's like a game of Musical Chairs except the last chair to be removed is covered with scorpions and glue.

pyxistyx wrote:
dibs wrote:

Buffoon is down.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could hear his sigh of relief from up here

It's like a game of Musical Chairs except the last chair to be removed is covered with scorpions and glue.

Don't worry the Labour party are doing their best to ensure the scorpions are declawed

pyxistyx wrote:
dibs wrote:

Buffoon is down.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could hear his sigh of relief from up here

I dunno, i kinda think it would be better to give it to him and destroy his political career here and now rather than let him slink away to reappear in the future when he is least needed.

IMAGE(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13511998_1108645665867287_602725935718011430_n.jpg?oh=fa13c8b32523af6f7967190e8c151801&oe=57F01974)

"For more information, please reread this poster."

Brilliant.

You can't say this whole saga hasn't been gripping.

I'd hate to see what their next evolution brings..

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/gljYP8L.jpg)

Clusks wrote:

Best one so far

That is awesome.

Concave wrote:

Hoping this is maybe the last gasp of the Blairites.

It is. Even if Chilcott wasnt' dropping next week they're still in the particularly squeaky position of, essentially, being politically better off with a Tory government than with a Corbyn government. At least if the Tories are in power they get another shot next election. If Corbyn gets in they're finished. They know this and are absolutely trashing the place to prevent this happening.

So, it looks like we are looking at a Tory party for full exit from the EU. With Cameron and Johnson out of the picture it appears that the EEA minus option is fading as the remaining figures will almost certainly campaign on out-brexiting each other.

As for Scotland, I think everyone want to help them but Spain is standing in the way. We'll see how this pans out. Scotland may have to exit for a couple of years at least but a fudge might be found.

Has the leaked Sarah Vine email been posted yet? It's amazing.

IMAGE(http://i2.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sarah-9.png)

Who would have thought old Boris to have had so much blood in him?

I'm confused, what does that say?

IMAGE(http://66.media.tumblr.com/3a7db49ace3b89af78f4cdf689812ac5/tumblr_o9kx0iLEff1qly0dto1_1280.jpg)

30th June 1934

The Night of the Long Knives.

30th June 2016

The Morning of the Long Knife.

Jolly Bill wrote:

I'm confused, what does that say?

Basically it is saying "Don't give Boris your support if Boris won't promise to you he'll initiate Article 50 leaving procedures" [soto voce] because Boris is obviously going to backpeddle on leaving, hint, hint.

P.S. Do as Murdoch/Dacre say and we'll be rewarded handsomly

Well no more Axis of Crazy Hair on the cards I suppose.

Seriously I have no idea what is going on with this country, it has lost it's collective minds.

Probably time for this then.

Note - totally NSFW (language)

.

It seems to be coming down to a toss-up between Theresa May and Michael Gove now, which is fascinating because as far as I can recall they both absolutely LOATH one another and have come to political blows before.

Neither are particularily good news though... on one hand, May has been a big fan of the idea of spying on peoples private information (ALL, their private information) for "the greater good" and I don't believe for one second she's given up on the idea of abandoning the European Court of Human Rights.

Gove on the other hand has (to my surprise) a much better record when it comes to LGBT rights than any of the other candidates, but...that's basically about all he's good for. He's broken pretty much everything else he touches AND he's in the pocket of Murdoch and Dacre, as the letter from his Lady Macbeth revealed earlier.

Fun times.