NFL 2016: Offseason: Pre-Draft / St. Louis Trolling

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Likewise, Buckner is the kind of behemoth that fits perfectly into the 3-4 DE, just like his former Oregon teammate and now 49er Arik Armstead (who had the second highest grade among 2015 1st round rookies at PFF, inexplicable how Tomsula did not get him more snaps).

I think the Titans really like Buckner. Wouldn't surprise me if they trade back down to get him.

I could easily see that. Dick Lebeau is still there, and his Steeler defenses always placed a premium on tall long-armed 5-techniques. Real easy to see how Buckner could slot in there, on the opposite side of Jurrell Casey. DaQuon Jones hasn't been bad, not someone in need of immediate replacement, but Buckner is the kind of player that could be a real force.

I liked Armstead a lot last year and was happy with the 49ers taking him. I like Buckner for a lot of the same reasons. Buckner is a bit quicker and more high-motor, Armstead was more raw but more powerful.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
UpToIsomorphism wrote:

I am irrationally happy

Those two words are instantly redundant if you're a Browns fan.

Trust me, most Browns fans aren't happy. Ever. Bunch of grumpy Eastern European and Russian descendents.

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Likewise, Buckner is the kind of behemoth that fits perfectly into the 3-4 DE, just like his former Oregon teammate and now 49er Arik Armstead (who had the second highest grade among 2015 1st round rookies at PFF, inexplicable how Tomsula did not get him more snaps).

I think the Titans really like Buckner. Wouldn't surprise me if they trade back down to get him.

#9 is a lovely spot for them to trade up to. Outside of an inexplicable Bosa fall, none of the DEs really seem worth it at that point.

Gumbie wrote:

Panthers rescind franchise tag on Josh Norman...he gonna get paid by someone.

This has been one crazy off season

Wow. I wonder how much crazy money he's demanding. It's got to be some serious, serious crazy money.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

#9 is a lovely spot for them to trade up to. Outside of an inexplicable Bosa fall, none of the DEs really seem worth it at that point.

I can't imagine Buckner falling that far. But if he does, he would be worth trading up for.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Gumbie wrote:

Panthers rescind franchise tag on Josh Norman...he gonna get paid by someone.

This has been one crazy off season

Wow. I wonder how much crazy money he's demanding. It's got to be some serious, serious crazy money.

I wonder where he goes now. Jacksonville and San Francisco are by far the teams with the most cap space, $53 and $52 mil, respectively. Cleveland is behind them with $39 mil, but that doesn't seem a very Moneyball move. The cap space drops pretty sharply from there, Titans at $29 mil, Giants and Bears at $22 mil. Carolina will jump up to $31 mil with Norman's franchise tender off the books, but obviously they won't be the ones to sign him now.

Of course, someone signing Norman to a long-term deal need not necessarily structure it with the big cap hit up front, but for what Norman will command in the open market, it helps to have the room to take the hit up front.

I think the 49ers are actually going to be one of the teams to watch here, given that they were looking to spend big at CB in Sean Smith but lost out to the Raiders. And Chip Kelly famously prefers tall CBs, and at 6 feet and with long arms, Norman's tall/long enough to meet Kelly's favor.

But Norman was the best DB on his team, not the fourth best, which is what Chip Kelly goes for.

garion333 wrote:

But Norman was the best DB on his team, not the fourth best, which is what Chip Kelly goes for.

Big sh*t talk from a fan of the team that signed the league's 128th best running back!*

Norman on the open market will be interesting. You have to figure Darrelle Revis's $14 mil a year is what the Norman camp uses as a baseline. I'll say this: I'd much rather give Josh Norman that kind of money than spend $12 mil a year on Janoris Jenkins the way the Giants did.

Spoiler:

*: Ozzie doesn't usually give me this kind of ammunition. I'm going to make the most of it.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

#9 is a lovely spot for them to trade up to. Outside of an inexplicable Bosa fall, none of the DEs really seem worth it at that point.

I can't imagine Buckner falling that far. But if he does, he would be worth trading up for.

Mike Smith (the Bucs DC) says he wants to run a hybrid defense with multiple looks, but Buckner really projects as a 3-4 guy pretty clearly, right? He just doesn't really fit what the rest of Tampa's personnel are built to do (Gerald McCoy, get in the backfield; Lavonte David, tackle everything in sight; the secondary, fail utterly).

I'm at the point where it's Bosa, Stanley (OT's not a huge need, but he bumps Donovan Smith to the right side and that line could be set for a decade), or trade down. I'm much happier at #6 or #7 just with the players, but, logically, it's Goff, Wentz, Ramsey, Bosa, Tunsil, Jack, Buckner, Stanley . . . eight guys who seem really solid, and then Tampa's next with leftovers. I liked things better when the Eagles allegedly really like Ezekiel Elliott.

He's the next coming of Emmitt, Jerreh! You gots to draft him!

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

#9 is a lovely spot for them to trade up to. Outside of an inexplicable Bosa fall, none of the DEs really seem worth it at that point.

I can't imagine Buckner falling that far. But if he does, he would be worth trading up for.

Mike Smith (the Bucs DC) says he wants to run a hybrid defense with multiple looks, but Buckner really projects as a 3-4 guy pretty clearly, right?

I would argue that, yes. I mean, everyone is running hybrid fronts to varying degrees these days, in part because nickel personnel is becoming the new base (I'm tempted to write an article about this). But as I see it, they're mostly variations on your base package, where a particular player or two moves down or stands up and moves out in space to create a new look.

There does come a point in the draft where you take him regardless of your base alignment because he's such a talent. But for Tampa at 9, it would seem more sensible to move the pick to someone that would covet Buckner for their scheme.

Bosa makes sense for a Mike Smith defense. If he's on the board at 9, I think that's an easy pick.

I'm really hoping the Niners go hard after Norman. Who was the last shut down corner they had on the team? Deion?

Man if they were able to pick up Norman and then draft Buckner they could really start getting that D back in shape.

Yeah and Deion was only there for 1 year.

49ers are already on the phone with Norman's agent, one of four teams reported to be in the mix.

I wish the Chiefs had cap space. Of course, if they did, Sean Smith would still be a Chief.

*Legion* wrote:

Ozzie doesn't usually give me this kind of ammunition. I'm going to make the most of it./unspoilered

And I am not sure he really has this time either. Richardson is a pretty no risk proposition considering he was had for no real guaranteed money and teams are still at the point where they are tossing mannequins in uniforms to fill preseason roster spots. If they can get any production out of him at all (perhaps as a pass target coming out of the backfield where he doesn't have to find a hole or in pass protection packages?), they have "reclaimed" him and Ozzie looks like a genius. If they cut him after week 2 and fill the spot with a third string OLB, he still looks fine.

Paleocon wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Ozzie doesn't usually give me this kind of ammunition. I'm going to make the most of it./unspoilered

And I am not sure he really has this time either. Richardson is a pretty no risk proposition considering he was had for no real guaranteed money and teams are still at the point where they are tossing mannequins in uniforms to fill preseason roster spots. If they can get any production out of him at all (perhaps as a pass target coming out of the backfield where he doesn't have to find a hole or in pass protection packages?), they have "reclaimed" him and Ozzie looks like a genius. If they cut him after week 2 and fill the spot with a third string OLB, he still looks fine.

Ignoring Legion and has paltry attempts to get a rise is the best course of action here. He knows all of what you just said but he's gotta take what he can get.

garion333 wrote:

Ignoring Legion and has paltry attempts to get a rise is the best course of action here. He knows all of what you just said but he's gotta take what he can get.

Just like the 49ers at #7.

garion333 wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Ozzie doesn't usually give me this kind of ammunition. I'm going to make the most of it./unspoilered

And I am not sure he really has this time either. Richardson is a pretty no risk proposition considering he was had for no real guaranteed money and teams are still at the point where they are tossing mannequins in uniforms to fill preseason roster spots. If they can get any production out of him at all (perhaps as a pass target coming out of the backfield where he doesn't have to find a hole or in pass protection packages?), they have "reclaimed" him and Ozzie looks like a genius. If they cut him after week 2 and fill the spot with a third string OLB, he still looks fine.

Ignoring Legion and has paltry attempts to get a rise is the best course of action here. He knows all of what you just said but he's gotta take what he can get.

I think he would be better off criticizing the choice to take Matt Elam or Eugene Monroe (the Amazing Injury Machine).

Playing devils advocate for the Browns.

If you plan to suck shouldn't you suck deep and hard?

If they are top 3 awful for the next 3 years... and trade down each of those years they will have an army of picks. Keep playing on other teams desperation to draft QBs (that might not be all that great).

Obvious counter arguments are the 76ers, Oilers etc. Sure the new GMs know how to trade down which is easy but... we still have to see how they draft which might be high comedy.

The main problem with the Browns is the ownership, which has shown a very clear tendency to fire unsuccessful coaches/GMs every two years at best (poor Chud). Trying for a long-term strategy in Cleveland means you're counting on Haslam having changed his ways, and why would you expect that at this point?

I think the Browns made a great move in trading down and acquiring picks, and, were it any other team, I'd think it portended well for their future. It's the Browns. It's the THIRD FREAKING TIME in the last decade they've picked up a bonus first-round pick, and those picks are always godawful. They'll screw it up.

*Legion* wrote:

Norman on the open market will be interesting. You have to figure Darrelle Revis's $14 mil a year is what the Norman camp uses as a baseline.

Which is why the Panthers are FedExing the contents of Norman's locker to his house.

Carolina didn't want to play Rent-A-Peppers with Norman, and they aren't going to pay that kind of money for a CB. So there goes Norman, and Carolina ensures that it won't end up in Cap Hell.

I like Josh Norman a lot, and I wish the Panthers hadn't cut him loose, but Dave Gettleman is both thrifty and unsentimental, which are probably the top two qualities you want in a GM.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Trying for a long-term strategy in Cleveland means you're counting on Haslam having changed his ways, and why would you expect that at this point?

Do you really mean "long-term"?

Article over at EPSN on Paul DePodesta.

Upon meeting Haslam, DePodesta explained how most owners treat Moneyball approach like a child riding a roller coaster. Kids beg to ride, wait in line for 45 minutes, get to front of line, see giant first hill and say, "I'm not getting on that thing." DePodesta states owners often want disciplined, process-oriented plan. But when it comes time to make tough decision, they panic. DePodesta told Haslam, "There are gong to be parts of the roller coaster that are going to be scary, that are going to be uncomfortable, but hopefully at the end of the ride, when we get off, you're going to want to say, 'Let's do it again.'"

Consensus inside NFL: Browns will get worse, much worse, before they get better, and turnaround could require up to five years, or twice the time Haslam typically tolerates. "In the pros, five years might as well be forever," Harvard's Murphy states. AFC analytics staffer states DePodesta could have perfect front office season and Browns still lose 14 games in 2016.

Seems spot on, both in terms of the crazy ride they're gonna be on and how hard it'll be for Haslam not to ... Haslam the team.

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Norman on the open market will be interesting. You have to figure Darrelle Revis's $14 mil a year is what the Norman camp uses as a baseline.

Which is why the Panthers are FedExing the contents of Norman's locker to his house.

Carolina didn't want to play Rent-A-Peppers with Norman, and they aren't going to pay that kind of money for a CB. So there goes Norman, and Carolina ensures that it won't end up in Cap Hell.

I like Josh Norman a lot, and I wish the Panthers hadn't cut him loose, but Dave Gettleman is both thrifty and unsentimental, which are probably the top two qualities you want in a GM.

People on Bucs Nation are clamoring for Tampa to give the guy $16 million/year, because Josh Norman with Tampa's front seven would TOTALLY be the same guy as Josh Norman with Carolina's front seven.

garion333 wrote:

Article over at EPSN on Paul DePodesta.

Upon meeting Haslam, DePodesta explained how most owners treat Moneyball approach like a child riding a roller coaster. Kids beg to ride, wait in line for 45 minutes, get to front of line, see giant first hill and say, "I'm not getting on that thing." DePodesta states owners often want disciplined, process-oriented plan. But when it comes time to make tough decision, they panic. DePodesta told Haslam, "There are gong to be parts of the roller coaster that are going to be scary, that are going to be uncomfortable, but hopefully at the end of the ride, when we get off, you're going to want to say, 'Let's do it again.'"

Consensus inside NFL: Browns will get worse, much worse, before they get better, and turnaround could require up to five years, or twice the time Haslam typically tolerates. "In the pros, five years might as well be forever," Harvard's Murphy states. AFC analytics staffer states DePodesta could have perfect front office season and Browns still lose 14 games in 2016.

Seems spot on, both in terms of the crazy ride they're gonna be on and how hard it'll be for Haslam not to ... Haslam the team.

You missed the best part:

SECURING FUTURE OF analytics in football will require massive amounts of talent, patience and intellectual ingenuity from franchise notoriously devoid of all three. At MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, unilateral fear existed inside analytics community that systemic ineptitude of Browns franchise will be too substantial for even DePodesta to repair. Failure would damage legacy of beloved industry pioneer and set field of sports data science back decades. "If you love analytics and want it to grow and succeed in the NFL, then you know Cleveland is a nightmare scenario," states NFL executive with 20 years of experience in analytics. "Cleveland is a crazy, terrible place for this to be tested in football."
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Norman on the open market will be interesting. You have to figure Darrelle Revis's $14 mil a year is what the Norman camp uses as a baseline.

Which is why the Panthers are FedExing the contents of Norman's locker to his house.

Carolina didn't want to play Rent-A-Peppers with Norman, and they aren't going to pay that kind of money for a CB. So there goes Norman, and Carolina ensures that it won't end up in Cap Hell.

I like Josh Norman a lot, and I wish the Panthers hadn't cut him loose, but Dave Gettleman is both thrifty and unsentimental, which are probably the top two qualities you want in a GM.

People on Bucs Nation are clamoring for Tampa to give the guy $16 million/year, because Josh Norman with Tampa's front seven would TOTALLY be the same guy as Josh Norman with Carolina's front seven.

Someone will give him that kind of money. Hope it's not Tampa or anyone else in the South!

Honestly, Norman won at least two games for Carolina last season. (The last-second end zone deflection against NO was the one that stood out the most.) But he got picked on against ATL (the one game they lost other than the Game That Shall Not Be Mentioned). And the same front 7 that made Norman a star made Bene Benwikere competent.

I'll miss him, though. Never a dull day with Josh Norman in your team's locker room.

Is there someone more temperamental, argumentative, and over hyped than Josh Norman because I feel the Niners would lean more towards that guy than the actual Josh Norman.

I don't know if it was a once in a lifetime season but he was as close to shutdown as you can get last year

Pro Football Focus wrote:

–Held DeAndre Hopkins to 2 catches for 24 yards on 7 targets

–Held Vincent Jackson to 2 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets, picking off one pass.

–Held Mike Evans to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets in the other meeting with the Bucs.

–Held T.Y. Hilton to 1 catch for 15 yards on 3 targets, breaking up the other 2.

–Held Dez Bryant to 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets.

–Held Julio Jones to 9 catches for 113 yards across 2 games (half Jones’ per-game average).

Honestly I hope the Titans are making a serious play for him even though Scheffter said he's interested in a California team.

garion333 wrote:

Ignoring Legion and has paltry attempts to get a rise is the best course of action here. He knows all of what you just said but he's gotta take what he can get.

It's a signing of a veteran back to a veteran minimum deal, obviously it's not Ryan Grigson trading a 1st round pick to get him. Still, it's like buying someone's unwanted wagon with square wheels, and saying, "well, maybe it will roll better for me!"

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Just like the 49ers at #7.

This was almost a good zinger. Obviously the QBs are off the table, but SF at #7 will still likely be looking at at least one of the elite prospects of the draft. It's really Tampa down at #9 that may end up missing out, and spending a top 10 pick on a guy that's basically in the same talent pool as will be picked from at the top of the 2nd round.

Yeah I'm pretty happy with the #7 spot right now. The local Seattle media is talking about how the Niners were the losers in the draft trades because now they are not going to get a QB. I guess I never thought either Goff or Wentz were going to be around regardless. To be honest I'm not convinced either are going to be great NFL QB's anyway.

Gumbie wrote:
Pro Football Focus wrote:

–Held DeAndre Hopkins to 2 catches for 24 yards on 7 targets

–Held Vincent Jackson to 2 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets, picking off one pass.

–Held Mike Evans to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets in the other meeting with the Bucs.

–Held T.Y. Hilton to 1 catch for 15 yards on 3 targets, breaking up the other 2.

–Held Dez Bryant to 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets.

–Held Julio Jones to 9 catches for 113 yards across 2 games (half Jones’ per-game average).

Hmm, interesting verb choice.

iaintgotnopants wrote:
Gumbie wrote:
Pro Football Focus wrote:

–Held DeAndre Hopkins to 2 catches for 24 yards on 7 targets

–Held Vincent Jackson to 2 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets, picking off one pass.

–Held Mike Evans to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets in the other meeting with the Bucs.

–Held T.Y. Hilton to 1 catch for 15 yards on 3 targets, breaking up the other 2.

–Held Dez Bryant to 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets.

–Held Julio Jones to 9 catches for 113 yards across 2 games (half Jones’ per-game average).

Hmm, interesting verb choice.