NFL 2015: Week 8

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Week 7 Thoughts

* Man, was this a boring week. I guess let’s get these out of the way:

* BORTLESMANIA! A WIN! While me and the rest of the west coast were still sleeping!

* Kaepernick’s mechanics are awful again.

* Greg Robinson posted a nice big numbered grade this week (take a guess on if that number has a minus in front of it or not?)

* fatjoshfreeman.jpg

* I have a rant/whine that I put off last week in favor of the chunky Buccaneer QB one. It turns out that Pro Football Focus is no longer selling access to their Premium Stats to normal end users. Instead, it is being sold a la Stats Inc to “exclusive partners" (other media outlets, etc). For end users, it is being replaced with a much less awesome service of player grades. Basically, all of the advanced metrics that provide any insight to those grades will soon be made unavailable to subscribers like myself, after our existing subscriptions lapse. This f*cking sucks. The grades are only a small piece of the value of PFF, and without the context of the stats, they are of significantly less value. The idea of no longer having access to even simple (but hard to find otherwise) stats like sacks/hits/hurries yielded by offensive linemen absolutely pisses me off.

* So between that and a bad/uninteresting week of football, I don’t have much to talk about. Re-read the fat QB rant if you want more.

Pick ‘Ems

If anyone made use of the email notifications, please let me know what your experiences were.

A few of you got emails with your picks in them, these were actually supposed to route to my inbox and serve as a “paper trail” in the event any picks somehow disappear after being submitted again. I pushed an update which should correctly route these emails to me and not to your inbox.

So, it finally happened. Certis kicked my ass this week, picking up a 2 game differential and closing us to even. As if I needed more to be upset about! Aren’t you supposed to get bored of this by now? It’s week 8! Doesn’t hockey replace football entirely in Canadian media by this point?

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/MP13x4i.png)

This f*cken guy.

Minnesota at Chicago: Both of these teams come in having played the Detroit Lions on the road in their previous game (the Bears had their bye last week). Minnesota went in and won convincingly, while the Bears were edged out by the Lions in overtime. Both offenses moved the ball, with the big difference in the game being Minnesota’s ability to slow down Stafford and the Lions offense, compared to Chicago’s failure to do the same. The Vikes offense is leaning on Bridgewater more than ever, particularly as Adrian Peterson has been pedestrian at best. Newly anointed go-to receiver Stefon Diggs has not disappointed. Chicago’s own offense is looking somewhat similar, as Jay Cutler has gotten hot again with the return of Alshon Jeffery, while Matt Forte hasn’t lived up to his previous levels of play. Interestingly, despite Chicago’s terrible showing against Detroit, they’re actually 6th in the league in terms of fewest pass yards yielded per game. I’m going to take Chicago in a sneaky upset pick.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: One of the most interesting stories this year has been waiting for the “same old Bengals” to show up. They’ve won some close games, passed some early tests, but now they go on the road to Pittsburgh, who expects to have Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup. Provided Ben does in fact play, and plays to his usual standard, this will be a big “are you for real” test of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense so far has been able to outrun their average-performing defense. Pittsburgh survived Roethlisberger’s injury, going 2-2 in the games he missed, but find themselves in quite a hole to dig out of if they want to chase the AFC North title. Winning this game would be a huge step. Alas, I’m not betting on a Cincinnati collapse just yet.

Green Bay at Denver: Hoo boy. Two undefeateds going head to head. Denver ranks #1 in total defense and #32 in total offense, as has been pointed out by many this week. Last game, Denver just barely edged out Cleveland in overtime. Green Bay is kind of a mini Denver right now, with their usually-formidable offense missing some teeth (23rd overall) while their defense is picking up some of the slack (11th overall). Aaron Rodgers has been good but not godlike, due in no small part to missing Fresno State’s own Davante Adams as well as Ty Montgomery, on top of already being without Jordy Nelson for the year. Adams comes back this week, but Montgomery is questionable. I’m taking Green Bay on the road, but it’s a scary matchup.

New York Giants at New Orleans: Though the Giants beat Dallas last week, the offense really struggled. Defensive and special teams touchdowns tipped the scale to the Giants in a week where Eli and the ground game were stalled. New Orleans beat up on a Colts team that can’t seem to do anything right, mostly on the back of Mark Ingram’s performance. The Giants couldn’t stop Darren McFadden, so Ingram will likely be an issue. But seriously, these are the Giants. You get 250 yards of offense out of them one week, and 500 the next. The have consistently generated turnovers this year (+10 differential), which is a big part of their being 4-3 and 1st place in the East. New Orleans has been equally effective at making turnovers as they have at getting them (0 differential), but their defense has generated 8 turnovers in the past 3 games after having only 3 in the first 4, so the trend is positive there. I’ll take New Orleans.

Indianapolis at Carolina: You have to think Indy gets on track at some point, right? They always seem to be teetering on the edge of an offensive explosion, and then find a way to shoot themselves in the foot and call the whole thing off. Luck’s was pretty dreadful before his injury, but he has been sharper since coming back (6 TDs to 2 INTs), but still not all the way there (completed only 52% against New Orleans last week). Carolina keeps finding ways to win, even when hurting themselves (3 INTs by Newton last week slowed them down). But hey, who is this healthy running back taking all these carries? It looks like Jonathan Stewart but that can’t be right. I’m going to give Enix a chance to rub it in my face when I’m wrong, but I’m taking Indianapolis in an upset this week. Hey, Carolina’s not going to go undefeated or anything, right? There’s going to be a trap game here or there, and Indy is a wounded animal who is going to drop a bomb on someone in a trap game at some point soon.

Make your Week 8 picks now!

Week 7 Results
Gumbie: 4-1
Elliottx: 4-1
cube: 4-1
Infyrnos: 4-1
Rat Boy: 4-1
Certis: 4-1
PorkSmoothie89: 4-1
Torq: 4-1
karmajay: 4-1
MilkmanDanimal: 4-1
Oddsmakers: 4-1
GioClark: 3-2
Jowner: 3-2
thejustinbot: 3-2
Peedmyself: 3-2
Mr E.B. Slugworth: 3-2
iaintgotnopants: 3-2
Zaque: 3-2
sr_malo: 3-2
Jayhawker: 3-2
tboon: 3-2
Vector: 3-2
garion333: 3-2
Bighoppa: 3-2
Stele: 3-2
*Legion*: 2-3
Abu5217: 2-3
Minase: 2-3
EvilDead: 2-3
onewild: 2-3
Bubs14: 2-3
jonfentyler: 2-3
UpToIsomorphism: 2-3
Cobble: 2-3
TheGameGuru: 2-3
oldmanscene24: 2-3
Atras: 2-3
Top_Shelf: 1-4
Kush15: 0-0
kaostheory: 0-0
troubleshot: 0-0
Nomad: 0-0
Tempest Blayze: 0-0
Psych: 0-0
Paleocon: 0-0
Flintheart Glomgold: 0-0
AnimeJ: 0-0
Grumpicus: 0-0
Neozilla: 0-0
whispa: 0-0
BEPNewt: 0-0
LeapingGnome: 0-0

Season to Date
PorkSmoothie89: 25-10
karmajay: 24-11
garion333: 24-11
tboon: 23-12
Stele: 23-12
jonfentyler: 23-12
MilkmanDanimal: 22-13
oldmanscene24: 22-13
Peedmyself: 22-13
Zaque: 22-13
Oddsmakers: 22-13
thejustinbot: 21-14
Mr E.B. Slugworth: 21-14
Infyrnos: 21-14
LeapingGnome: 21-9
iaintgotnopants: 20-15
Jowner: 20-10
Certis: 20-15
*Legion*: 20-15
TheGameGuru: 20-15
Elliottx: 19-16
Vector: 19-16
onewild: 19-16
Rat Boy: 19-16
Atras: 18-12
UpToIsomorphism: 18-17
EvilDead: 17-18
Torq: 17-13
Abu5217: 16-19
Bubs14: 16-19
Cobble: 16-14
sr_malo: 16-14
GioClark: 15-15
Bighoppa: 15-20
Jayhawker: 14-16
Gumbie: 13-17
Top_Shelf: 13-17
cube: 12-8
BEPNewt: 10-15
Minase: 10-10
Tempest Blayze: 10-5
kaostheory: 8-7
Psych: 8-7
Nomad: 6-9
Flintheart Glomgold: 6-4
AnimeJ: 6-9
Kush15: 5-5
Paleocon: 4-6
Neozilla: 4-1
whispa: 3-2
Grumpicus: 3-7
troubleshot: 0-0

Minnesota at Chicago: Bridgewater is getting terrible protection, but he's got enough pocket presence and smarts that he's compensating. The Diggs kid is great, and I'm hoping people realize Adrian Peterson actually died a few weeks ago and they stop feeding him the ball. Chicago's offense at this point is pretty much "boy, we hope Bad Jay Cutler doesn't show up this week".

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: It's a day game, right?

Green Bay at Denver: It's really admirable how Peyton Manning keeps playing after his right arm got amputated. Got to give him credit for having real grit.

New York Giants at New Orleans: I feel dirty.

Indianapolis at Carolina: I'm still not sold on Carolina as a legit contender (for which my flowchart is pretty much "are you the Green Bay Packers; if yes, contender"), but I'm pretty sold on the Colts being terrible.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

*Legion* wrote:

This f*cken guy.

You really gotta get the eyebrows going for full effect.

IMAGE(http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130207193729/adventuretimewithfinnandjake/images/c/c1/Tumblr_mhv64tfjJu1rt5zeqo1_500.gif)

*Legion* wrote:

So, it finally happened. Certis kicked my ass this week, picking up a 2 game differential and closing us to even. As if I needed more to be upset about! Aren’t you supposed to get bored of this by now? It’s week 8! Doesn’t hockey replace football entirely in Canadian media by this point?

I am fueled by your love.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Also, a pretty crazy performance by Brady last week against a top 2 defense. It will be interesting to see what the game plan is against the dolphins tonight.

"In all, the Patriots dropped back to pass on 90.9 percent of their offensive plays, which is the highest percentage by any team in the past 10 seasons, according to ESPN's Stats & Information.

It's hard to win with that type of approach, but Brady makes it look easy at times. Consider that over the past 10 seasons, the Patriots are 4-0 when at least 80 percent of their plays are dropbacks, while all other teams are 3-109 in that time."

Vikings at Bears
Bengals at Steelers
Packers at Broncos
Giants at Saints
Colts at Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Vikings

Bengals

Packers

Saints

Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Back to my normal 3-2 after two weird weeks at 4-1. Still not a week of losing 2-3 or worse picks yet. Probably just jinxed myself there.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Dion Lewis with six games (played) under his belt in New England is looking like more than a one hit wonder. Blount continues to look mediocre.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Looks like I'm going against the grain with a few of these:
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Denver Broncos
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Grantland article about Todd Gurley being the best back in the league right now.

Mostly posting so I can put up this gif:

IMAGE(http://i2.wp.com/espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/gurleysilly.gif)

What the what?!?

This kid is exciting.

* Greg Robinson posted a nice big numbered grade this week (take a guess on if that number has a minus in front of it or not?)

Where did the Greg Robinson watch go? Oh, and the other top player picks. I don't see it in the OP.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

garion333 wrote:

Grantland article about Todd Gurley being the best back in the league right now.

Mostly posting so I can put up this gif:

IMAGE(http://i2.wp.com/espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/gurleysilly.gif)

What the what?!?

This kid is exciting.

IMAGE(http://cdn.nextimpulsesports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/1295539310-sad-cleveland-browns.jpg)

garion333 wrote:
* Greg Robinson posted a nice big numbered grade this week (take a guess on if that number has a minus in front of it or not?)

Where did the Greg Robinson watch go? Oh, and the other top player picks. I don't see it in the OP.

Legion's ability to do actual football analysis hasd been replaced by an endless series of fat Josh Freeman pictures.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings are just better right now.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers get Ben back and at home? I'll give them the edge. If Ben doesn't play the Bengals win this one fo sho.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Denver Broncos at home.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers at home and because picking Indy pretty much is guaranteeing yourself to be heartbroken this year. Riverboat Ron ftw!

Legion wrote:

I’m going to give Enix a chance to rub it in my face when I’m wrong, but I’m taking Indianapolis in an upset this week. Hey, Carolina’s not going to go undefeated or anything, right? There’s going to be a trap game here or there, and Indy is a wounded animal who is going to drop a bomb on someone in a trap game at some point soon.

So I'm not the only one who thinks this is a trap game for Carolina, huh.

I'm picking PANTHERS but with some trepidation. The D-line is a little banged up (the subs, not the starters), which means the DEs and DTs will burn out pretty quickly if they have to rush Andrew Luck 40+ times on Monday. Center Ryan Kalil missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury. That'll slow down the O a bit.

On the plus side, starting LB Shaq Thompson could be back this week. And if the Colts could score just 21 at home last week against a terribad Saints D, I shouldn't be too worried, right? Right?!

Mariota ruled out again for another week. Don't forget this is after Whiz let him back in the game two weeks ago after the initial hit. How the f*ck is this guy still a head coach in the NFL?

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Green Bay Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: Packers
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: Giants
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Panthers

Gumbie wrote:

Don't forget this is after Whiz let him back in the game two weeks ago after the initial hit.

Don't worry, it's not like this sort of thing has happened before with any bad final result...

This may be up Boogle's alley. I need help with a prop bet of sorts.

My current video game addiction is Madden Ultimate Team, and one of the weekly challenges is a pair of Coin-Up games that let you bet on the Submnday Night game.

Winning the first game lets you pick the winner and is worth 2500 coins. That's pretty easy, I think. I picked the Packers over the Broncos.

The second game is trickier. After winning it you get to predict one of four prop bets for various rewards. What would you pick?

Demaryus Thomas Receptions (750 each)
Packers Defense INTs (3500 each)
Broncos Defense Hold Packers Under 24 Points (20,000)
Aaron Rodgers Throws 4 TDs (40,000)

I'm leaning towards the Packers INTs, but tempted by Rodgers TD passes. What do you think?

Someone can correct my stats, but...

Demaryius Thomas receptions per game: 8 (expected points: 6000)
Packers defense INTs per game: 1.33 (expected points: 4655)
Broncos defense hold opponents below 24 points: 5 out of 6, 83% probability (expected points: 16667)
Aaron Rodgers throwing 4+ TDs: 1 out of 6, 16.7% probability (expected points: 6667)

Without adjusting for opponent, the Broncos D one is far and away the best bet. But let's look at the flip side of each of them:

Packers receptions yielded to WR1s: 6.67 (expected points: 5000)
Broncos offense INTs per game: 1.67 (expected points: 5810)
Packers offense held below 24 points: 1 out of 6, 16.7% probability (expected points: 3334)
Broncos opponents throwing 4+ TDs: 0 out of 6, 0% probability (expected points: 0)

The Aaron Rodgers one is the worst bet by far. Not only has the Broncos D not yielded 4 passing TDs in a game, they have not yielded 3 passing TDs in a game, and have only yielded 2 passing TDs in 3 of 6 games. And Rodgers is rarely doing that against lesser offenses.

Broncos defense holding the Packers below 24 is potentially a good one. Only the 49ers have managed to do it this year, but that was also the only time they've played a decently playing (at least for that week) defense on the road. They've been home 4 out of 6 games this year. St. Louis is the best defense they've played, and they held Green Bay to exactly 24. So I'd argue Denver's chances are a lot better than the 1-of-6 the Packers have had against other teams.

Packers INTs seems pretty good. Manning's INTs have been trending strongly upward (only 3 in the first 3 games, 7 in the last 3).

Thomas catches are a sure thing that you'll get something, and the Pack's number has been helped along by playing some teams with struggling passing offenses or bad receivers. The two WR1s they've played that are closest to Thomas level are Keenan Allen and Alshon Jeffery. Allen had 14 catches, and Jeffery had 5 catches playing on a bad leg that caused him to sit out the next 4 games. So, certainly could see Thomas hitting or even exceeding his average.

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