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Week 4 Thoughts
* This week in God Hates Jags: Jaguars lose to Indianapolis on the back of two missed would-be game winning field goals, and then lose the team’s best lineman, Brandon Linder, to a season-ending shoulder injury.
* Some very interesting dysfunction in Miami. Reportedly, the Dolphins defensive players held a closed-door meeting this week, in which players expressed frustration over the team’s defensive scheme. Specifically, the defensive line wants to switch to a one-gap system instead of the two-gapping they are doing now. Ndamukong Suh wore sneakers to a fully-padded practice later in the week, as a protest against the system. On the one hand, this kind of protest is childish, especially coming from a player who has done a lot of dumb stuff on the field in his career. But on the other hand, what kind of stupid team spends the insane amount of money it took to sign Suh, and then plays him as a two-gap space eater instead of having him do what he does that makes him worth all that money: penetrating into backfields? Methods aside, Suh and the rest of the players have a valid grievance.
* Kaepernick’s free-fall continued this week, though he was more ineffective than pelting defenders with passes this time. Like so many before him, his offeseson-rebuilt “new mechanics” have disintegrated under the pressure of real pass rushes. Though his reputation is that of a “one-read” quarterback, his struggles have largely not been decision making, but mechanics. His INT flurry against Arizona were a series of badly delivered passes, not bad decisions. Against Green Bay this week, the bad throws didn’t float into the hands of defensive backs, but sailed harmlessly out of bounds or into the grass.
* San Francisco’s offensive problems go beyond Kaepernick, up to offensive coordinator Geep Chryst. A perfect illustration of the problem: Carlos Hyde gets a mere 8 carries in a contest that was a one-score game until the end of the 3rd quarter, against a Packers defense giving up the most yards per carry in the league. How the 49ers did not pound the ball with Hyde and set Kaepernick up in more favorable situations, I don’t know. But it is a big enough failing, in a continuing series of them, that Chryst’s time as offensive coordinator should be put into question, even a mere 4 games in.
* So we’ve learned a bit more on the Ryan Tannehill, “enjoy your practice squad trophy ” story. Apparently, the incident took place during a Saturday walkthrough session . Walkthroughs are dress rehearsals, not normal in-pads practices, and are not the place for the scout team to be try-hard charging after the first team offense. But apparently, that’s exactly what happened, which speaks less to Tannehill and more to Joe Philbin’s loss of control of his team. Although it still doesn’t paint a great picture of Tannehill and the respect (or lack of) he commands from his teammates.
* Both San Francisco and Miami will be in a position where they can make decisions about moving on from their QBs soon. For SF, Kaepernick can realistically be moved in any offseason going forward, as long as they do so before April 1 of that year (at which point his salary that season becomes guaranteed). For Tannehill, his 2016 base salary is guaranteed (as was his salary this year), more or less locking him onto the roster for 2016. But starting in 2017, he can easily be cut during the offseason, with a similar time limit as Kaepernick’s (salary becomes fully guaranteed in early March of both 2016 and 2017).
Missed XP Watch: John Brown (NYG), Robbie Gould (CHI), Caleb Sturgis (PHI), Kyle Brindza (TB fired )
PFF QB Performances of the Week: QB Andy Dalton (+4.7), QB Aaron Rodgers (+4.4), QB Josh McCown (+4.3)PFF Non-QB Offensive Performances of the Week: OT Joe Thomas (+5.5), RB Chris Ivory (+5.4), OG Marshal Yanda (+4.7)PFF Defensive Performances of the Week : DE JJ Watt (+9.4), DE Leonard Williams (+8.5), DE Cameron Heyward (+7.4)PFF Worst Performance of the Week: OG Jamil Douglas (-7.0)Greg Robinson Watch : OT Greg Robinson (-2.4)
Pick ‘Ems
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay : Lovie Smith has never won at home as a Buccaneer. Blake Bortles has never won on the road as a Jaguar. So, barring a ridiculous tie, one of these 0-fers must fall. For the first time in who knows how long, Jacksonville enters a game with the advantage at the QB position. Bortles has quietly clawed his way up into competent starting QB play, and is, shockingly, the 10th highest scoring fantasy QB right now. Seriously. Bortles comes in off one of his best games so far, playing Jacksonville to a winning position in Indy twice, only for wayward field goal attempts to blow it. Jameis Winston’s 4 INTs last week is more than Bortles has thrown all season, and his 7 INT total for the year brings to mind his senior year interception-itis that some scouting types tried to hand-wave away. On the plus side, Doug Martin decided to finally show up last week. The real question is, which terrible unit will win the head-to-head battle: Tampa’s nonexistent offensive line, or Jacksonville’s flat-lined defensive front? Either way, this is Jacksonville time baby. #BORTLESMANIA
New Orleans at Philadelphia : The Luke McCown era in the Big Easy lasted only one game, sadly. Drew Brees quickly put to bed any rumors of his early demise, torching the Cowboys en route to the team’s first victory. Philadelphia’s offense has continued to struggle, though Sam Bradford showed more signs of life a week ago than at pretty much any point so far. He’ll have his best chance yet this week, as New Orleans’s pass coverage ranks worst in the league in PFF’s grading. One name to watch for in NO’s defense: OLB Hau'oli Kikaha. The 2nd round rookie leads the team with 3 sacks and 10 hurries, accounting for a large share of NO’s total pass rush. Both defenses are tops in run stoppage, which doesn’t matter much for NO’s defense as Philly can’t run anyway, but may slow down Mark Ingram, who has been somewhat productive, if at a plodding 3.6 YPC so far. I’ll take Philadelphia at home, but not feeling great about it.
Seattle at Cincinnati : The undefeated Cincinnati Bengals keep marching on. Though they let Alex Smith throw for what is usually a 3-game total of yardage for him, Cincinnati was rarely in danger, thanks to a defense that tightened up just in time to force KC to settle for a boatload of field goals. Andy Dalton has thrown only 1 INT so far this season, after finishing in the top 5 in the league the past two years. Geno Atkins’s return to glory continues to drive the Cincy D, as he had another big game this past week, and Carlos Dunlap is stepping up to feed on the scraps. As for Seattle, though they never trailed, they barely edged out an 0-4 Lions team at home on Monday night, which also makes this a short week for them. The Seahawk offense has been among the league’s least productive, tying the 49ers for fewest TDs scored. Greg Cosell (one of the few guys in the media who knows what he is talking about) said in a radio interview that Seattle has ”the most remedial passing game in the NFL” , from a scheme standpoint. Seattle is obviously not playing good football right now, and though panic would be unwarranted, I don’t think this is the week they turn it around. Cincinnati .
Buffalo at Tennessee : Tennessee comes in off the bye week, one of those crappy bye weeks that are too early to really help you out with the long season grind. Mariota continues to be the story in Tennessee, but Tennessee’s defense has quietly become one of the league’s top performing units, led (to little surprise) by Jurrell Casey, but surprisingly boosted by free agent acquisition Brian Orakpo, who probably shouldn’t be a surprise. Orakpo has never been unproductive, just oft-injured. Buffalo’s excitement level came back down to earth after a loss to the Giants, in which the limitations of the short-throw-and-run offense was exposed somewhat. Buffalo’s only two scoring drives came on drives that began in Giants territory. Even more concerning: the stud-filled defensive line has performed well below their previous level, which may indicate some issues fitting into Rex’s system. I’m taking Tennessee .
Pittsburgh at San Diego : Pittsburgh is hanging on for dear life while they await Ben Roethlisberger’s return. Michael Vick has been perfectly adequate as a replacement, and if Josh Scobee wasn’t missing so many field goals, they may have pulled out a key win against Baltimore on Thursday. As it is, they’re 2-2 and treading water. This week, they get a San Diego team that let Josh McCown look like a star a week ago (though, in true Cleveland fashion, the Brown still lost). San Diego’s two wins came at teams sitting on a combined 1-7 record. San Diego’s defense is perhaps the worst in the league right now, with a front 7 that is completely helpless (Manti Te’o in particular has been terrible). I’m taking Pittsburgh on the road.
Make your Week 5 picks now!
Week 4 Results
thejustinbot: 4-1
EvilDead: 3-2
Certis: 3-2
MilkmanDanimal: 3-2
PorkSmoothie89: 3-2
UpToIsomorphism: 3-2
Tempest Blayze: 3-2
Bubs14: 3-2
LeapingGnome: 3-2
Zaque: 3-2
Stele: 3-2
karmajay: 3-2
Infyrnos: 3-2
iaintgotnopants: 3-2Oddsmakers: 3-2
cube: 2-3
Psych: 2-3
Jayhawker: 2-3
GioClark: 2-3
sr_malo: 2-3
jonfentyler: 2-3
Elliottx: 2-3
Mr E.B. Slugworth: 2-3
tboon: 2-3
Cobble: 2-3
onewild: 2-3
oldmanscene24: 2-3
Abu5217: 2-3
TheGameGuru: 2-3
Minase: 2-3
Jowner: 2-3
garion333: 2-3
Vector: 2-3
*Legion*: 2-3
Rat Boy: 1-4
Top_Shelf: 1-4
Peedmyself: 1-4
AnimeJ: 1-4
BEPNewt: 1-4
Bighoppa: 1-4
Nomad: 0-5
Torq: 0-0
Gumbie: 0-0
Atras: 0-0
Kush15: 0-0
Grumpicus: 0-0
Neozilla: 0-0
whispa: 0-0
Paleocon: 0-0
troubleshot: 0-0
kaostheory: 0-0
Season to Date
jonfentyler: 14-6
tboon: 14-6
*Legion*: 13-7
garion333: 13-7
UpToIsomorphism: 13-7
TheGameGuru: 13-7
Mr E.B. Slugworth: 13-7
oldmanscene24: 13-7
LeapingGnome: 13-7
thejustinbot: 13-7
PorkSmoothie89: 13-7
karmajay: 13-7
Infyrnos: 13-7
iaintgotnopants: 12-8
Peedmyself: 12-8
Cobble: 12-8
MilkmanDanimal: 12-8
onewild: 12-8
Zaque: 12-8
Stele: 12-8
Certis: 11-9
Vector: 11-9Oddsmakers: 11-9
Jayhawker: 10-10
Rat Boy: 10-10
Elliottx: 10-10
Tempest Blayze: 10-5
Torq: 10-5
Bubs14: 10-10
Jowner: 9-6
Abu5217: 9-11
Bighoppa: 9-11
Top_Shelf: 9-11
Atras: 9-6
EvilDead: 9-11
kaostheory: 8-7
cube: 8-7
BEPNewt: 8-12
sr_malo: 8-7
Psych: 8-7
Gumbie: 8-7
Nomad: 6-9
GioClark: 6-9
AnimeJ: 6-9
Kush15: 5-5
Paleocon: 4-6
Neozilla: 4-1
Minase: 4-6
whispa: 3-2
Grumpicus: 3-7
troubleshot: 0-0
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