NFL 2015: Week 4

XPs are obviously lower, but I think the point is that there's a perception that more field goals are being missed, which the numbers don't bear out.

Except we are kicking in ideal conditions right now. The numbers always drop as weather gets worse. How much worse I have no idea.

The numbers I quoted are for the exact same part of the season as they have played now. Those aren't season averages.

And, you realize that you can't compare XP numbers since they're 13 yards longer now, right?

Yeah, I was actually curious about the numbers is all, not trying to refute you.

Damn, you went and found each week for previous years? Impressive.

PFF bears slightly different results for kicking this year:

FGs: 198-237 83.5%
XPs: 283-300 94.3%

FWIW, XPs used to be kicked on above 99% for most seasons. FGs go anywhere from 80-86% overall.

iaintgotnopants wrote:

And, you realize that you can't compare XP numbers since they're 13 yards longer now, right?

thatsthepoint.gif

Titans need to snag Matt Forte before someone like Dallas does. I know he's on the backend of his career and the price might be steep but damn if Mariota couldn't do some great things with a good running back, especially one that can block and catch. We haven't seen enough from David Cobb since he got hurt and what we have now is mostly a sh*tty committee.

Please don't take the only nice thing away from me.

But you have Cutler.

garion333 wrote:

FWIW, XPs used to be kicked on above 99% for most seasons. FGs go anywhere from 80-86% overall.

Barnwell, naturally, wrote about kicking: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we...

3. We’re seeing more misses because of the new extra point rules. This, I think, is the biggest reason we’re down on kickers in 2015. They’re getting way more meaningful opportunities to have an impact on games because of the new extra point rules, and in our heads we’re treating all the misses as equally meaningful despite that not being the case.

Include the 300 extra points attempted by kickers so far this season and we’ve seen 537 tries in four weeks. Last year, with extra points all but guaranteed, kickers attempted only 987 field goals all season. We’ve already seen what amounts to half a season of work during a typical year for the league’s kickers, and compressing that into a four-week span means that we’re naturally going to see more misses than our brains are used to seeing under the old rules.

The league’s place-kickers have been right on schedule with those extra points from the 15-yard line. From 2010 to 2014, kickers were 144-for-153 (94.1 percent) on field goal tries from the 15-yard line. This year, they’re 283-for-300 on extra points, which is a conversion rate of 94.3 percent.

That means we’ve seen a total of 56 missed kicks this season, way up from the 38 kicks (36 field goals and two extra points) that were missed over the first four weeks of the 2014 season. It’s no surprise that we’re seeing more missed kicks than we have in years past, but that’s because we’re seeing way more medium-range attempts by virtue of the change in the extra point rule.

This is going to create an interesting market for how teams value those kickers going forward. History tells us that kicker accuracy is markedly inconsistent from year to year and subject to dramatic regression toward the mean, if only because the sample for each season was so remarkably small. Imagine judging baseball hitters by what they do in 30 at-bats over the course of a week; you’ll find that Mike Trout is probably better than Elvis Andrus most of the time, but that won’t always be the case. For kickers, that week of at-bats is an entire season of field goal attempts.

Now, the sample of meaningful kicks will have more than doubled. We’ll get 70-80 attempts from most kickers if they stay healthy and play a full season, and that can change how teams value their talent. If the larger sample reveals that kicker talent is more homogeneous, it could cause organizations to treat kickers as far more fungible assets. On the other hand, if it allows the league’s top kickers to stand out even further and create a larger gap between the haves and the have nots, it could make the Gostkowskis and Baileys of the world even more money. So far, the story appears to be leaning in the latter direction. In any case, when it comes to kickers, there’s nothing unexpectedly wrong about their performance. This is just the NFL’s new normal.

garion333 wrote:

Damn, you went and found each week for previous years? Impressive.

I far too lazy to do that. Somebody at ESPN did that. I just quickly added the totals from this week and for this season-to-date for which I was apparently off by two.

Gumbie wrote:

We haven't seen enough from David Cobb since he got hurt

He's probably not going to be very good. Loved him in college and I want him to do well but I don't think he's going to. He's a very powerful runner but he's not very dynamic.

garion333 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

In other troubling pro football news, I've discovered the whereabouts of Josh Freeman.

MMD, you might not want to click that link or uncover the spoiler text below. For the rest of y'all ...

Spoiler:

... Freeman, in his debut with the Brooklyn Bolts of the Fall Experimental Football League, went 9 for 16 for 32 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT and *5* fumbles. I think we've gone straight from funny to damn sad.

This is one step removed from an Onion article about losing in a pick-up game against 8th graders.

Schiano killed the Kid.

Maybe to a point, but there has to be something else going on here. You're talking about a guy who in 2010 was really one of the best QBs in the entire league, and within a year had imploded so badly he can't even play at the extremely-minor league level. It seems like a pretty unprecedented explosion; people have crashed out of the league due to drug problems frequently, but something like this is just bizarre.

Oh, wait, I forgot . . . *cue sobbing*

I, for one, am shocked that a kicker can go 1-4 on FGs and miss an XP, and then go 1-3 on FGs and miss an XP the next week, and not keep his job.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I, for one, am shocked that a kicker can go 1-4 on FGs and miss an XP, and then go 1-3 on FGs and miss an XP the next week, and not keep his job.

I know, right? Man, Lovie Smith is a demanding taskmaster.

Assuming( that Freeman really does have a diagnosis for ADHD that he's treating with aderall(which I have absolutely no reason to doubt), high doses of aderall basically makes you:

1. Eat a lot less.
2. Hyperfocus on things a lot more easily.
3. Don't sleep as much.

Or at least that's my experience.

That entire episode probably destroyed Freeman's trust in the coaching staff more than anything else. Given Shiano's commitment to destroying him mentally, I'm kinda... not surprised that he's having trouble even in the lower leagues. It's sad

cube wrote:

Assuming( that Freeman really does have a diagnosis for ADHD that he's treating with aderall(which I have absolutely no reason to doubt), high doses of aderall basically makes you:

1. Eat a lot less.
2. Hyperfocus on things a lot more easily.
3. Don't sleep as much.
4. Rage like hell when it starts to wear off

Or at least that's my experience.

That entire episode probably destroyed Freeman's trust in the coaching staff more than anything else. Given Shiano's commitment to destroying him mentally, I'm kinda... not surprised that he's having trouble even in the lower leagues. It's sad :(

Added that for you, I know from personal experience.

No, that's just my normal state lately.

I wouldn't buy Matt Forte at the price he's likely to command, not as the Titans at least. This isn't like the Seahawks buying Marshawn Lynch 5 years ago. Forte is the same age as Lynch is right now.

The writing was on the wall last year when Forte's per-carry averages took a bit of a nosedive. He's still a good receiving back, but the Bears are going to demand a lot more in trade than a 3rd down back should merit.

Don't get me wrong. Forte on a wooden leg would still run better than Bishop Stankey. But the Titans aren't in win-now territory with their brand new QB. They ought not give up draft ammunition to reach for a declining RB.

Forte needs to go somewhere where he can be late-career Fred Taylor. Somewhere where another back will take on half the workload, and eventually more than that, allowing him to slide into a still-productive 1B role.

Dallas would make a lot more sense, especially after losing Dunbar. Forte would fit into Dunbar's pass-catching role immediately, and they still have Randle for carrying at least a half-share of the workload on the ground.

garion333 wrote:

But you have Cutler.

and 50% of the time so do the Bear's opponents...

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Rat Boy wrote:

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Damn you, stop preempting stuff I'm putting in next week's post.

*Legion* wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Damn you, stop preempting stuff I'm putting in next week's post.

Will we get out of 2014 next week?

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Damn you, stop preempting stuff I'm putting in next week's post.

Will we get out of 2014 next week?

Why, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You're seeing things. Must be all that watching Bishop Stankey run that's screwing up your eyes.

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Damn you, stop preempting stuff I'm putting in next week's post.

Will we get out of 2014 next week?

Can we go with 2014? 2014 was a better year.

*Legion* wrote:
Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Maybe we ought to start asking if Ryan Tannehill is an elite quarterback.

Damn you, stop preempting stuff I'm putting in next week's post.

Will we get out of 2014 next week?

Why, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You're seeing things. Must be all that watching Bishop Stankey run that's screwing up your eyes.

He runs?

Lions defense making a game.

God dammit Russell. f*ck!!!

Stele wrote:

Lions defense making a game.

More like Tebow 2.0 doing his best to kick the game. Seriously. WTF is he doing back there? Get rid of the GD ball!!!

Football!

Kam Chancellor. Thank god for this D.

Football! if that Lions defender doesn't slip Wilson probably has to throw it away and punt.

Crazyness.