It's finally here! The day where we officially pass the Milkman trolling baton to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
*Legion* Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Evaluated purely as a passer, Winston brings a lot to the table. His off-field concerns are an issue, and probably being overlooked a bit is his weight issue, as he ballooned up over the course of last year (working it off over the offseason, but still a Leftwich-ian concern going forward). But he brings an elite throwing arm to the table, and some pocket passing polish.
2. Tennessee Titans - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Mariota is a great big question mark. He has a lot of athletic ability. His arm strength isn't great, but upon further review, I do think it's good enough to keep him out of what I sarcastically call the "Above Average Arm Strength Club", home to guys like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith His high production is unquestionably the product of the system, and projecting that into the NFL is difficult, particularly with his inconsistency in delivering downfield throws. His athleticism and off-field profile shine, but concerns about his ability to deliver NFL passes and run an NFL offense have merit.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The buzz the last couple of days is that Jacksonville has been keeping their interest in Cooper quiet. The team had been quietly optimistic about Justin Blackmon's return, but word is that that has taken a sharp 180, which may explain the interest in the position. Cooper is, to me, far and away the choice for top WR in this draft. He is a polished, Reggie Wayne (or Jimmy Smith) type of player, who may not be the most physically imposing, but already has the positional mastery that many top WR draft picks never get.
4. Oakland Raiders - Leonard Williams, DT, USC
For the second straight year, Oakland has arguably the best player in the draft fall to them at a selection outside the top 3. In my estimation, Cooper and Williams are the best football players in the draft, and whichever one the Jaguars don't take, Oakland should snap up. Williams is a force of destruction, who would give Del Rio the kind of 3-technique he had in Jacksonville with Marcus Stroud. Pair this selection with the Khalil Mack pick last year, and the Raiders are killing it.
5. Washington Redskins - Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Fowler gets the edge over the rest of the pass rush group as he has ideal size, while most of the field is pretty undersized. Fowler was not as productive as you'd hope for a guy in this spot, but some of that comes down to how Florida used him (lined him up for a lot of A-gap blitzes, which was supposed to be a matchup move, but he just seemed to get swallowed up in the middle of the line). His athletic ability is high, but he's among the most raw of the pass rusher class in terms of rush skills.
6. New York Jets - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
White is the physical talent of the WR class, eliciting comparisons to guys like Julio Jones and Terrell Owens. He's fast, strong, catches with his hands, and uses his body well. The big concern is why it took all the way until his senior year for him to play like this, and that delay is part of why White didn't "rise" up draft boards until later in the process.
7. Chicago Bears - Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
Most mocks have the Bears landing one of the top two WRs here, but most mocks think more highly of the pass rusher class than I do. This is as high as I'm willing to put Beasley, where he'd play the role of Aldon Smith in Vic Fangio's new defense. Beasley managed to put on some more weight before the Combine and still maintain his speed, which helped his stock immensely. At this point, Beasley is purely a speed rusher, and must learn more pass rush moves to generate pressure in the NFL, but he has an elite first step to build upon.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
I think the Falcons would like Beasley, but I see a lot of mocks putting Bud Dupree this high and I think that's insane, and Randy Gregory's off-field issues probably keep him out of the discussion here too. Thomas Dimitroff is an unrepentant need drafter (and I say that with a tiny bit of admiration, for being true to a philosophy), and the narrative of RB being a devalued position has been dragged into question given this year's free agency happenings. Dimitroff has struggled to solve the RB problem and I would not be shocked to see him take a swing at it here with Gurley.
9. New York Giants - Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa
Scherff is insanely strong. I project him as a guard, where his shorter arms won't be as much of an issue. He's a mountain mover, the kind of guy I could see Tom Coughlin very happy to have step into the void left by Chris Snee's retirement a year ago.
10. St. Louis Rams - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
I don't really love any of the offensive tackles (bearing in mind that I am counting Scherff as a guard), but unless one of the top two WRs falls here, I see the Rams considering the position very strongly out of need. I'm giving the nod to Flowers. He doesn't have top notch pass protection technique at this stage, and may project to the right side, but St. Louis needs the right side filled so he could address that need. With some development, he could make his way to the left side, and move GWJ favorite Greg Robinson inside to guard. Flowers is the bigger, higher potential, less polished OT in this conversation, which seems to be exactly what St. Louis targets, so he's the first OT off the board here by virtue of that.
11. Minnesota Vikings - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Shelton is the Dontari Poe of this draft. 330 lb guy that can move, and plays damn near every snap. Minnesota has pressing needs elsewhere, but Shelton may be too good to pass up.
12. Cleveland Browns - DeVante Parker, Louisville
Cleveland stopped the bleeding at WR by signing Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline, but they still have 5-8 160-something pound Taylor Gabriel penciled in as a starter instead of the slot position he belongs at. Parker is clearly behind the two receivers ahead of him, as he's neither as sharply polished as Cooper nor as physically dominant as White, but he's a playmaker who has a knack for producing. He's a bit of a body catcher, though.
13. New Orleans Saints - "Bud" Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
Everyone has Bud Dupree going in the top half of round 1, even in the top 10, and I don't like it. This is as high as I'll go with Dupree. He's coveted because he has the size (270 lbs) but he played much smaller, was too easily handled in the running game by tight ends. He has zero pass rush technique, lets linemen get their hands all over him. Flashes elite ability here and there, but was never even remotely consistent. A real project.
14. Miami Dolphins - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
Perriman has gained a lot of attention over the past month, particularly after his Pro Day 40 time (4.25) changed everyone's perception of his speed (he was previously thought of more as a 4.5 runner). Son of former Lions WR Brett Perriman, Breshad is big and fast, and can break plays open, but hands and route running are raw. He's worked himself into a similar class as DeVante Parker, and while this draft spot may be too high, it should not shock anyone if a team falls in love with Perriman and selects him high.
15. San Francisco 49ers - Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Armstead is a Calais Campbell-like tower of a man, who will be most valuable to teams that use two-gapping 3-4 DEs, like the 49ers. Armstead is the choice for the 49ers in damn near every mock draft, as he has huge potential but system fit means he's much more valuable to the 49ers than he is to most other teams, which could make for a situation where the 49ers trade down to a lower 1st round spot and select him there.
16. Houston Texans - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Wide receiver is an option here, but with not only Parker off this board, but the Dolphins making the reach for Perriman too, I'll have the Texans addressing CB need and looking to WR later in this deep class. Jonathan Joseph is likely gone after this year. My board has both Johnson and Trae Waynes still available, but I'm giving the Texans Johnson as he is a more versatile player, while Waynes is more strictly a boundary corner.
17. San Diego Chargers - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
This seems to be an every-mock-draft selection too. San Diego's desire for a top RB has been no secret, and with QB a question mark beyond this year, San Diego invests in an explosive player to build their future offense around.
18. Kansas City Chiefs - Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
With Rodney Hudson gone in free agency, Kansas City has a huge void in the middle of their line. WR could be an option here if someone like Parker were still on the board, but failing that, they take the top center in the draft. Erving was a little outmatched lining up at tackle for Florida State, but his skill set makes him much more suitable inside.
19. Cleveland Browns - La'el Collins, OT, LSU
Cleveland wants to further upgrade their offensive line, and Collins is a sound, versatile lineman who can play tackle or guard. He would step in day 1 at right tackle and allow Mitchell Schwartz to slide inside at right guard, filling in the weak points of what would be a stellar offensive line. They may not be able to solve QB, but with Parker and Collins along with signing Bowe, they'd be giving whomever plays QB a much more complete supporting cast.
20. Philadelphia Eagles - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Philly gets a gift at #20 with the slide of Waynes. Free agent signee Walter Thurmond would be able to slide inside to slot corner, the position he manned in Seattle. Waynes is not a quick-twitch inside corner, but rather he's a long, fast press corner, built for the outside.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
DGB is the new Josh Gordon, in pretty much every way. He's the kind of big receiver that will win the battles for all those Andy Dalton underthrows. Is going to be selected by someone like Marvin Lewis who isn't afraid of guys like this, and after the job they did turning around Vontaze Burfict, they're coming off a "win" in the troubled-player department.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
It's hard to make sense of the weird buzz around Gregory, but of all the 1st round pass rushers, he is easily the most skilled. He knows how to use his hands. He plays bigger than his 235lb listed weight. He hustled on field and often ran down plays that had gotten by him. He's the most polished natural pass rusher of the group. In Pittsburgh, he'd be a stand-up pass rushing OLB, where his weight would be less of an issue than if he's a hand-on-the-ground 4-3 DE. A lot of red flags, but under different circumstances, he easily could have been a top 10 contender.
23. Detroit Lions - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Suh and Fairley are gone, and while the Lions have brought in Haloti Ngata, they still need to fill the other spot, and Ngata will likely only be a short-term solution. Brown is the kind of pass rushing DT that the Lions enjoyed with those other two guys.
24. Arizona Cardinals - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Arizona did well signing Jared Veldheer last offseason, and he rewarded them by being their only truly good offensive lineman. Any progress the Cardinals make is going to require improving their offensive line. There's a lot of ways they can go here, and La'el Collins might be a better fit if he were still on the board. But we'll go with Peat, who is the kind of traditional tall and long OT an old schooler like Bruce Arians is likely to prefer, though there are some concerns he's not as tough and stout as he should be.
25. Carolina Panthers - D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
Another very common mock draft selection, for good reason. Humphries may be the best pure left tackle of the draft. He's a bit light and not a mauler, making him less of a fit for the other positions on the line. Which makes him such a good fit for Carolina, who needs a left tackle like nobody's business. He will have to work to keep weight on, but he did manage to get up over 300 for the Combine.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State
In a weak safety draft, Randall has surged into the top spot, as teams have gone back and taken a harder look at the former juco transfer player. Randall is the best cover safety in the draft, and though the team signed Kendrick Lewis in the offseason, I don't think that will stop the Ravens from making the selection, especially given what a disaster Matt Elam has been so far at the other safety spot.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Byron Jones, CB/S, Connecticut
Dallas needs help at most of their DB positions outside of Orlando Scandrick's spot. Jones could challenge for Brandon Carr's spot at LCB or JJ Wilcox's spot at FS.
28. Denver Broncos - Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
Offensive tackle seems to be the pick here, but the question is whether it's Fisher or TJ Clemmings or even someone like Cedric Ogbuehi. Fisher seems the best fit as he's the most agile of the group, being a former tight end, and would seem the best fit for Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme and all the movement that's going to be required of him.
29. Indianapolis Colts - T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
Whatever tackle gets left on the board, Indianapolis scoops up at #29. Everyone on the line besides Anthony Castonzo has been pretty dreadful, and since Castonzo plays LT, they don't need to worry about the more rare LT skills in scooping up a tackle. Clemmings doesn't have the agility to handle speed rushers on an island, but he's nasty enough to step in at right tackle and improve the Colts line situation.
30. Green Bay Packers - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
I have a hard time with this pick, as a guy with issues like Peters seems an odd fit for Green Bay, but he's also the kind of talent that you're not going to get from many other players at pick #30. There's a lot of ways Green Bay could go, but this is a shallow draft at the top, and the amount of 1st round talent has run out by this pick, except for someone sliding for other concerns like Peters.
31. New Orleans Saints - Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
Harold benefits the most from the fall of Shane Ray, who was busted with marijuana during a traffic stop just a few days ago. Harold sneaks up into round 1 for a pass rush desperate team.
32. New England Patriots - Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Agholor is a smaller receiver who would seem a good fit for an offense like the Patriots that makes great use of such guys. The Pats O has typically been an inside-out passing attack as opposed to an outside-in one, and Agholor would provide the kind of slot speed and production that they haven't been getting consistently from Danny Amendola. Agholor would also be productive in the return game, bringing that kind of multi-role versatility Belichick likes.
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