2016 Presidential Elections Vote-All

Robear wrote:
Boogle wrote:

Sorry, to be clear here I'm talking about the perspectives of people on the betting market which is not a 1to1 to the election.

But the betting market cited above currently has Clinton as the odds-on favorite... That's why I'm confused by your reasoning. :-)

It's a solid hedge to bet against the market. It's good odds man!

Huh. I figured boogle was gonna bust out all these fancy "numbers" and "statistics."

What I took his initial statement to mean is, It's over twenty months till the election, bitches! Chill out--a lot can happen in that time.

Me too. The 20 months, that's kind of obvious. No worries, though, Boogle, carry on. I was just interested in your reasoning.

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

What I took his initial statement to mean is, It's over twenty months till the election, bitches! Chill out--a lot can happen in that time.

That's, what, 17 months before Republicans have to pick a nominee. And that's 17 months for all the candidates to say and/or do stupid and/or crazy sh*t.

The current vaccine hullabaloo is just a warm up. Heck, Rand Paul was able to cram two screw ups in just one interview with CNBC anchor Kelly Evans. First he claimed that vaccines cause "profound mental disorders" and then, when being questioned about the efficacy of another tax holiday for corporations he straight out shushed Evans, telling her to calm down so a man could mansplain the economy and tax policies to her.

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

Huh. I figured boogle was gonna bust out all these fancy "numbers" and "statistics."

What I took his initial statement to mean is, It's over twenty months till the election, bitches! Chill out--a lot can happen in that time.

What's even the point of this thread if we aren't going to have premature histrionics over who may or may not get elected president?

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

Huh. I figured boogle was gonna bust out all these fancy "numbers" and "statistics."

What I took his initial statement to mean is, It's over twenty months till the election, bitches! Chill out--a lot can happen in that time.

Robear wrote:

Me too. The 20 months, that's kind of obvious. No worries, though, Boogle, carry on. I was just interested in your reasoning. :-)

I like that you guys trust me, but I am a degenerate looking for arbitrage in election betting/futures markets right now.
futures market

Demyx wrote:

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

You read my fanfic!

Demyx wrote:

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

How far are we from a point where this doesn't seem like a bad idea compared to the alternatives?

At least it's an ethos.

Jonman wrote:
Demyx wrote:

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

How far are we from a point where this doesn't seem like a bad idea compared to the alternatives?

Depends--how close are we to wondering how magnets work?

Jonman wrote:
Demyx wrote:

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

How far are we from a point where this doesn't seem like a bad idea compared to the alternatives?

Blackmirror S02E03

Jonman wrote:
Demyx wrote:

Just let me fetch my 20,000 word manifesto about how America will never be adequately prepared for the inevitable double-Juggalo presidency.

How far are we from a point where this doesn't seem like a bad idea compared to the alternatives?

OG_slinger wrote:

That's, what, 17 months before Republicans have to pick a nominee.

IMAGE(http://33.media.tumblr.com/a91db7d1eab960ecfb1fd8bd41a1fc12/tumblr_niaaw1JLpa1rr5t33o1_500.gif)

I get that this conservative artist thinks he's making a point... a sexist one, as naturally the older female candidate is automatically the old maid... even though that makes zero sense as a description for Hillary, but whatever...

But... the elephant looks like it's confused and unsure which card to play instead, which pretty well sums up the GOP's problem.

They were over-confident with Mitt, and I'm happy to see them make a similar mistake this time around. Lord knows there is enough crazy for them to pick and sink their boat.

I'm trying to turn that into an "old battleship" joke, but it's still too early in the morning.

I thought decks of cards only came with two jokers.

OG_slinger wrote:

I thought decks of cards only came with two jokers.

IMAGE(http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/4515496/monty-python-ladies-clapping-o.gif)

clover wrote:

I'm trying to turn that into an "old battleship" joke, but it's still too early in the morning.

The joke probably woulda sunk anyway.

Jonman wrote:
clover wrote:

I'm trying to turn that into an "old battleship" joke, but it's still too early in the morning.

The joke probably woulda sunk anyway.

It started out bubbly, though.

clover wrote:
Jonman wrote:
clover wrote:

I'm trying to turn that into an "old battleship" joke, but it's still too early in the morning.

The joke probably woulda sunk anyway.

It started out bubbly, though.

Might as well put it in mothballs.

Demosthenes wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

I thought decks of cards only came with two jokers.

IMAGE(http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/4515496/monty-python-ladies-clapping-o.gif)

Yes, and additionally:

Blofeld: 20. Your move, Mr. Bond.

Bond: I'll take a hit, dealer. [Homer gives him a card] Joker! You were supposed to take those out of the deck.

Homer: Oh, sorry. Here's another one.

Bond: What's this card? "Rules for Draw and Stud Poker"?

They have no data, and are just sort of guessing, but still, they put percentages to them, so here you go:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/l...

IMAGE(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/6_odds_rep_allcolor.jpg?w=610&h=343)

IMAGE(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/7_odds_dems_allcolor.jpg?w=610&h=343)

*looks at that list*

Regarding Governor Walker... I saw this piece the other day.

Scott Walker thinks my university has fat to trim. Yet my department is barely scraping by.
(Michael Mirer, Washington Post, 2015-02-04)

You might think that one of the nation’s leading academic communication programs would be a good place to make a long-distance phone call.

...

During one of the many rounds of budget cuts the University of Wisconsin has endured over the past few years, the department ended all nonessential long-distance service. This was essential to me, I explained to the front-office staff. I am hoping to log about 25 hours of interviews with people who are outside the university’s 608 area code. Long-distance phone calls cost less than 4 cents per minute; the entire project would cost about $60, surely something could be worked out? Could I pay for it myself? Write a grant? They didn’t think so.

There’s no using the telephone in, of all places, the communication department. The budget is too tight. The phone jack in my office is a vestige of a time when the state invested in higher education.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) formally proposed his 2015-17 state budget Tuesday night, but we’ve known since last week that it includes a $300 million cut for the University of Wisconsin system over the next two years. That’s a 13 percent reduction in state aid from the latest budget cycle. According to the University of Wisconsin at Madison, state aid accounted for about 17 percent of the campus budget in 2014-15. State support of the campus has fallen steadily since the 1970s, when it was 43 percent of the budget.

...

This is something overlooked when you see all the articles about how much debt students are going into for college. It is not that college is more expensive but that individuals are having to bear more of the cost which was once picked up by taxpayers.

Now a it seems like a fair debate as to whether that is OK. On one hand it does make a lot of sense that the individual getting education should pay the majority of the cost, but on the other it seems evident that society as a whole benefits from a better educated populace. So I can see it both ways but it is a discussion we (as a society) should have rather than just let politicians decide for us.

farley3k wrote:

Now a it seems like a fair debate as to whether that is OK. On one hand it does make a lot of sense that the individual getting education should pay the majority of the cost, but on the other it seems evident that society as a whole benefits from a better educated populace. So I can see it both ways but it is a discussion we (as a society) should have rather than just let politicians decide for us.

Both society and taxpayers benefit from using tax dollars to increase people's education levels. The more education someone has the more money they are going to make over their lifetime. That also means they'll contribute more taxes over the course of their lifetime--hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of a lifetime for someone with a bachelor's degree.

Additionally, the more education someone has the less likely it is that they'll ever use government aid programs and the less like it is they'll be incarcerated.

So more educated citizens contribute more back to the government and simply cost the government less than less educated citizens.

It's frankly bad public policy and bad economics to cut education funds.

boogle wrote:
H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

Huh. I figured boogle was gonna bust out all these fancy "numbers" and "statistics."

What I took his initial statement to mean is, It's over twenty months till the election, bitches! Chill out--a lot can happen in that time.

Robear wrote:

Me too. The 20 months, that's kind of obvious. No worries, though, Boogle, carry on. I was just interested in your reasoning. :-)

I like that you guys trust me, but I am a degenerate looking for arbitrage in election betting/futures markets right now.
futures market

That was fun the last 2 elections using 538 vs anyone who would take your money but I think that jig is up.

Well actually hopefully not as it was pretty lucrative ;D

Hypatian wrote:

*looks at that list*

Regarding Governor Walker... I saw this piece the other day.

Scott Walker thinks my university has fat to trim. Yet my department is barely scraping by.
(Michael Mirer, Washington Post, 2015-02-04)

You might think that one of the nation’s leading academic communication programs would be a good place to make a long-distance phone call.

...

During one of the many rounds of budget cuts the University of Wisconsin has endured over the past few years, the department ended all nonessential long-distance service. This was essential to me, I explained to the front-office staff. I am hoping to log about 25 hours of interviews with people who are outside the university’s 608 area code. Long-distance phone calls cost less than 4 cents per minute; the entire project would cost about $60, surely something could be worked out? Could I pay for it myself? Write a grant? They didn’t think so.

There’s no using the telephone in, of all places, the communication department. The budget is too tight. The phone jack in my office is a vestige of a time when the state invested in higher education.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) formally proposed his 2015-17 state budget Tuesday night, but we’ve known since last week that it includes a $300 million cut for the University of Wisconsin system over the next two years. That’s a 13 percent reduction in state aid from the latest budget cycle. According to the University of Wisconsin at Madison, state aid accounted for about 17 percent of the campus budget in 2014-15. State support of the campus has fallen steadily since the 1970s, when it was 43 percent of the budget.

...

Hey -- he's got to prioritize! So some education money has to be cut in order to help a billionaire build a new sports arena.

Walker wants to mandate the hours that professors at a *research* university put into teaching (more) and also wants them to focus on research with immediate and obvious business benefits. He could not get more shortsighted if he mandated single-use lab buildings...

Robear wrote:

Walker wants to mandate the hours that professors at a *research* university put into teaching (more)

Couldn't it be longsighted if it leads to more students being inspired to become scientists themselves - due to more contact with the best current scientists.
Of course regarding Walker it sounds like it is just a way to reduce cost, by reducing aggregate time spent on research.

Only focusing on research with immediate and obvious business benefits... yeah, that sounds like the definition of being shortsighted.

Robear wrote:

Walker wants to mandate the hours that professors at a *research* university put into teaching (more) and also wants them to focus on research with immediate and obvious business benefits. He could not get more shortsighted if he mandated single-use lab buildings...

Isn't that kind of research sort of an oxymoron? If it's got immediate and obvious benefits, we already have it! We don't need to research. Le sigh.