Brown vs. Brownback

If you ever wanted a clear illustration of the complete and utter failure of the Republican orthodoxy regarding the sanctity of tax cuts, take a look and the fiscal performances of California and Kansas.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewir...

Financial projections released late Monday paint a grim picture for Kansas's budget in the wake of Gov. Sam Brownback's (R) decision to sign massive income tax cuts into law.

The estimates showed that the state is on track to collect $1 billion less in revenue next year and in 2016 than had previously been projected, according to the Kansas City Star.

The estimates also said the state will use up $380 million in reserves and still have to cut another $280 million for fiscal year 2015 to balance the state's current budget. In addition, in 2016, revenues are expected to be $436 million short of expenditures according to the forecast.

Altogether it was the latest bit of bleak news for Kansas and Brownback, who won re-election a week ago, defeating House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D).

In late October, just before the election, data showed Kansas's October tax revenue was 15 percent below previous projections. Tax collections were $23 million short of projections, according to the Associated Press.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harlan...

A day after voters passed Proposition 2, which creates a "rainy day fund" to cushion the state budget from future economic downturns, major credit-rating house Standard & Poor's on Wednesday upgraded California's general obligation bond rating. S&P raised the state's credit rating from A to A-plus, citing the stability offered by Proposition 2.

But it's more than that. California's unemployment rate dropped to 6.8 percent in September, according to the State Unemployment Office and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The San Francisco Bay area led the way with San Francisco and the surrounding counties' jobless rates in the low 4 percent, which in essence means full employment.

In a state that the "Governator" declared "broken and ungovernable".

Paleocon wrote:

If you ever wanted a clear illustration of the complete and utter failure of the Republican orthodoxy regarding the sanctity of tax cuts, take a look and the fiscal performances of California and Kansas.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/sam-brownback-budget-forecast-2015...
Quote:

Altogether it was the latest bit of bleak news for Kansas and Brownback, who won re-election a week ago, defeating House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D).

As clear as it is that Brownback's experiment has badly damaged Kansas, he won re-election. I can't see any politician calling that result a failure - which is disgusting.

Obviously Kansas still has work to do. They need to cut yet more taxes and spending to really turn things around.

gewy wrote:

Obviously Kansas still has work to do. They need to cut yet more taxes and spending to really turn things around.

What's scary is that could be parody... or could very well be their next step.

Demosthenes wrote:
gewy wrote:

Obviously Kansas still has work to do. They need to cut yet more taxes and spending to really turn things around.

What's scary is that could be parody... or could very well be their next step.

I work in Kansas and this is what they actually believe.

SallyNasty wrote:
Demosthenes wrote:
gewy wrote:

Obviously Kansas still has work to do. They need to cut yet more taxes and spending to really turn things around.

What's scary is that could be parody... or could very well be their next step.

I work in Kansas and this is what they actually believe.

Makes me wonder if the Kochs will just hire their own private army to protect their interests and let the rest of the state turn into Somalia.

I hope Kansas implodes before the 2016 elections, so every non Republican running for office can point and say "This is what happens when you put pure GOP economic policies in place".

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

Dezlen wrote:

I hope Kansas implodes before the 2016 elections, so every non Republican running for office can point and say "This is what happens when you put pure GOP economic policies in place".

Well, yeah, except that there are real people who will get seriously hurt by Kansas imploding. Even worse, it will be the poor who rely on the welfare programs that will be the first to get whacked. And they're the ones who can't afford media buys to illustrate the problems in the next election.

It'd be nice if we could prove these policies a failure without causing harm to anyone, but that's not what'll happen.

OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

Yup. Arthur can keep raping that chicken. I am sure that explosive recovering is just around the corner.

I picture a number of politically active types in Overland Park briefly worrying at the re-election, then asking their broker and maybe the gardener if they've seen signs of economic problems in the last two years or so in the state. They then sigh with relief and go back to dressing for their Tuesday Champagne Brunch at the club. (It's an early one, 11am, barely time to finish before hitting the links for a business meeting.)

OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

Kansas is a flat state; ergo, it takes longer for anything to trickle down.

And how is it that Dan Savage has never made "Brownback" a thing?

OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

The biggest problem to me with the Kansas experiment as described in the podcast is that in a global economy with global supply chains, boosting business's margins by straight up lowering taxes doesn't necessarily translate to increased demand for local products and services. One owner described expanding his business to start selling more Apple products. That decision doesn't increase demand of any local product or service other than UPS. So if a substantial portion of the saved revenue from the tax cuts is going out of state, that money isn't going to people in state, therefore people in-state aren't going to have more money to buy more stuff in-state, therefore the demand for ipads or lebanese food or whatever isn't going to increase more than marginally.

I'm not an expert, but my sense is that Laffer curve stuff is economic theory based on a medieval village as a starting construct. There's nothing inherently wrong with pro-business policy that benefits the local economy, but policy makers need to create the right kinds of incentives. Lowering income taxes and raising sales taxes is one such example.

Robear wrote:

I picture a number of politically active types in Overland Park briefly worrying at the re-election, then asking their broker and maybe the gardener if they've seen signs of economic problems in the last two years or so in the state. They then sigh with relief and go back to dressing for their Tuesday Champagne Brunch at the club. (It's an early one, 11am, barely time to finish before hitting the links for a business meeting.)

You may be making that as a joke post, but that is closer to reality than you might imagine.

That said - Overland Park is a gorgeous area - it really is. It is easy to believe in a lie if all you are looking at is OP.

SallyNasty wrote:
Robear wrote:

I picture a number of politically active types in Overland Park briefly worrying at the re-election, then asking their broker and maybe the gardener if they've seen signs of economic problems in the last two years or so in the state. They then sigh with relief and go back to dressing for their Tuesday Champagne Brunch at the club. (It's an early one, 11am, barely time to finish before hitting the links for a business meeting.)

You may be making that as a joke post, but that is closer to reality than you might imagine.

That said - Overland Park is a gorgeous area - it really is. It is easy to believe in a lie if all you are looking at is OP.

OP also tends to be a lot more liberal than, say, Wichita.

That is not my experience at all. Like, at all.

*edit* - if by liberal you mean socially liberal/accepting - yes, you are right. But they are staunchly fiscally conservative/anti-tax and are a-ok with keeping women/minority/gays down if it means they get to keep more of their paycheck.

SallyNasty wrote:

That is not my experience at all. Like, at all.

*edit* - if by liberal you mean socially liberal/accepting - yes, you are right. But they are staunchly fiscally conservative/anti-tax and are a-ok with keeping women/minority/gays down if it means they get to keep more of their paycheck.

True. As my sister in law once said "if you are black in Johnson County, you better be pushing a lawnmower".

OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

The most important part of this is that they mention that Laffer's ideas are not really theory but a means of thought experiment about economics - meaning that a lot of things need to fall into place in order for them to work. The idea that tax cuts alone will increase state revenues is simplistic and dangerous. If economics could be summed up in a talking point there would be little need for many (of us) to ever study the subject.

And that would be a bigger fraud than the fictional climate change fraud as economists make much more than the average climate scientist.

SallyNasty wrote:

You may be making that as a joke post, but that is closer to reality than you might imagine.

I cheated - I spent my last 8 years of secondary schooling at an elite prep school, so this comes from first-hand experience of some of my friends' situations. (I was there on reduced tuition for various reasons, my family was not wealthy at all.)

Flintheart Glomgold wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

The most important part of this is that they mention that Laffer's ideas are not really theory but a means of thought experiment about economics - meaning that a lot of things need to fall into place in order for them to work. The idea that tax cuts alone will increase state revenues is simplistic and dangerous. If economics could be summed up in a talking point there would be little need for many (of us) to ever study the subject.

And that would be a bigger fraud than the fictional climate change fraud as economists make much more than the average climate scientist.

Even if you take the curve at face value and completely accept it as fact it doesn't mean our current tax rate is on the side of diminishing revenue for increasing rates.

Zona wrote:
Flintheart Glomgold wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Planet Money had a decent episode of the Kansas Experiment a few weeks back. They even included an interview with the idiot who started it all, Arthur Laffer, who basically said that more time--like a decade--was needed to fully unleash the potential of cutting taxes. How the state is supposed to survive the intervening ten years of slashed public services he didn't say.

The most important part of this is that they mention that Laffer's ideas are not really theory but a means of thought experiment about economics - meaning that a lot of things need to fall into place in order for them to work. The idea that tax cuts alone will increase state revenues is simplistic and dangerous. If economics could be summed up in a talking point there would be little need for many (of us) to ever study the subject.

And that would be a bigger fraud than the fictional climate change fraud as economists make much more than the average climate scientist.

Even if you take the curve at face value and completely accept it as fact it doesn't mean our current tax rate is on the side of diminishing revenue for increasing rates.

Precisely. Which is why I keep referring to it as the Laugher Slope.