2014/15 Soccer Thread

I think one of the only reasons I like twitter/instagram is that it gives a slight insight into some of the athletes actual character for better or worse.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2722131/Mathieu-Flamini-teases-Cesc-Fabregas-tagging-Instagram-photo-following-Arsenal-s-Community-Shield-triumph-Manchester-City.html

Mathieu Flamini teases Cesc Fabregas by tagging him in Instagram photo following Arsenal's Community Shield triumph over Manchester City

They are most likely good friends considering when they both played and its nice to see that the players like to jibe one another. Especially since its the f*cking Community Platter hahahah

edit:

Also I 1% believe the Arsenal for Cavani rumors.

Wenger splashed 30m for Sanchez which helped Barca finish up their Suarez business.

Would be dream land if he splashed $$$ for Cavani to make sure Di Maria goes to PSG instead of United.

Pure dream land though as I would expect Cavani fee and wages to be insane. If he was somehow available for sub 30m and reasonable wages I think teams start to take interest which isn't unthinkable as he hasn't exactly been worth his 64m Euro price tag. Also PSG are silly enough not to care about selling at a loss as long as it helps their FFP to sign someone else.

UCRC wrote:
Pikey26 wrote:

Arsenal's feet have been tied by its manager's own volition...

You mean, apart from repaying 400 million pounds it cost to build the new stadium?

Whatever it is/was, I reckon it's less bullsh*tty than what Manchester United has been put through thanks to getting pigeon-holed via acquisition by the Glazers (which, yes I realize, is largely the fault of Ferguson).

If our club was paying off loans for something 'less bullsh*tty' and arguably much more finite like Stadium build costs, I'd be so much less cynical and much more optimistic about the general state of the club, even if we looked to be doomed to be fighting for 4th place for the next 10 years.

When your club, touted to be one of the most profitable franchises in the world, is stuck with an interest rate of almost 60 Million Per Annum for a loan for majority of the 800 million it cost for the current owners to acquire it.... everything looks better.... probably because it is.

I don't know the full story behind the 400 million at Arsenal, but something tells me I'd find it far more tolerable and much less bleak.

Plus, you still have your old guru keeping your club from imploding due to its financial challenges. Ours just quit a season ago after dragging out his tenure at least 2-3 years longer than it probably needed.

Not to defend the Glazers as they are slime and are in the Sports Business because when well ran its a absolute golden goose.

But...
United will spend. The money they have is insane even with the debt load.

Pretty sure the Adidas deal is also incentive laced so not qualifying for the CL next year would be a huge blow to the finances. Which the Glazers don't want.

Moyes was the Yes man last year who would come in and not push for transfers and just take what was given to him.

That experiment failed and it became obvious that as mentioned many times here before the actual United squad was very dire and it was being propped up by SAF.

Van Gaal isn't Moyes. He has no allegiance to United. His motivation to come to United is $$$ and is big fat ego. He wants to come in after SAF and succeed so he can point at his success and talk about how amazing he is. He only came if he was promised a certain transfer budget (kinda like FM) and if he doesn't get it we will hear about it via the media as he whines and moans and walks out the door next year somehow.

Your only fear should be is Woodward so incompetent that he cant sign anyone and between him and Van Gaal who do they sign. Thing is the United squad is so bear besides maybe at Striker and Keeper anyone who you do sign is pretty much an upgrade. The United squad talent wise is where Arsenal were maybe 2 years ago and where City and Chelsea were after their very first rounds of spending. They could honestly fast forward back to Arsenals level in the next 2 weeks and I wouldn't be all that surprised. Guys like Di Maria are suspect coming to the EPL but hes so much better than what United have already hes an automatic upgrade. Like Ozil was last year for Arsenal.

Pikey26 wrote:
UCRC wrote:
Pikey26 wrote:

Arsenal's feet have been tied by its manager's own volition...

You mean, apart from repaying 400 million pounds it cost to build the new stadium?

Whatever it is/was, I reckon it's less bullsh*tty than what Manchester United has been put through thanks to getting pigeon-holed via acquisition by the Glazers (which, yes I realize, is largely the fault of Ferguson).

Yes, but what jowner said. From viewpoint of what happens on the pitch, those are the numbers that matter:
http://www.transfermarkt.de/premier-...
http://www.tsmplug.com/football/prem...

Yes, Arsenal's finances were managed much better... But that only makes us a good business. On money front it's still Chelsea, City and Man United winning by some distance. And people s{racist slur} about coming fourth season after season.

I'm pretty sure that if Arsenal didn't have to operate with that 200-300 million pound gap in transfer fees over last 5 seasons, they would be title contenders every season.

Adidas didn't give United the biggest sponsorship deal so Cleverly, Smalling and Jones would wear their jersey.

Thats why they also saddled the deal with United actually having to win.

The signings are coming... Heres hoping though that Woodward wastes an inordinate amount of time chasing a guy like Hummels so hes left scrambling for 2nd and 3rd choice guys that are Fellaini 2.0's

I know what you mean, but Hummels is not coming to United. Borussia is in good financial state and won't let big clubs snatch their best players anymore.

UCRC wrote:

I know what you mean, but Hummels is not coming to United. Borussia is in good financial state and won't let big clubs snatch their best players anymore.

Exactly. Like Cesc wasn't coming last year but that was the rumor that wouldn't go away for a month until they signed Fellaini instead!

Chasing Hummels turning into them signing Vlaar would be great

Also Shaw out for 1 month. I guess he hurt himself trying to get into Van Gaal type of shape

UCRC wrote:
Pikey26 wrote:
UCRC wrote:
Pikey26 wrote:

Arsenal's feet have been tied by its manager's own volition...

You mean, apart from repaying 400 million pounds it cost to build the new stadium?

Whatever it is/was, I reckon it's less bullsh*tty than what Manchester United has been put through thanks to getting pigeon-holed via acquisition by the Glazers (which, yes I realize, is largely the fault of Ferguson).

Yes, but what jowner said. From viewpoint of what happens on the pitch, those are the numbers that matter:
http://www.transfermarkt.de/premier-...
http://www.tsmplug.com/football/prem...

Yes, Arsenal's finances were managed much better... But that only makes us a good business. On money front it's still Chelsea, City and Man United winning by some distance. And people s{racist slur} about coming fourth season after season.

I'm pretty sure that if Arsenal didn't have to operate with that 200-300 million pound gap in transfer fees over last 5 seasons, they would be title contenders every season.

Alright, Arsenal's super super tight.

But to be honest, when I complain about Manchester United's current state in the past 5-6 years, it's got more to do with our transfer market performance in comparison to Chelsea and City who have both outspent us on both Salaries/Transfer Fees, while also driving up the general prices.

Sure, we didn't get skinned or anything like that in terms of our spendings, but we did get out-done, and for quite some time, we've constantly made 2nd choice purchases one after the other, while Chelsea/ PSG/ City/ Madrid/ and Barcelona took their pics.

You could argue Ferguson and the team itself had an effect in our failure to attract our top targets... but compared to City and PSG? Who just straight up outspent us?

And yeah, Arsenal's super tight on cash clearly. You guys had it pretty damn rough.

I still don't think Manchester United would be where they are if not for the Glazers. And 60 mil in just interest is a LOT, there's no way to really to how much more they're really sucking out of the company, except that they're sucking out a LOT.

I agree with pretty much everything you've just said.

Guardian has a pool "Who will be the best PL signing of the summer". I was surprised to see that Fabregas isn't leading - with his ability and experience in the league, I expect him to win the title for Chelsea.

Sorry for the triple:
Javi Martinez out for 6 months at Bayern. And Ribery is still injured, I think.
German Supercup yesterday was supposed to provide proof for Bayern's continuing ascendancy and Borussia's plight (with Lewandowski obviously being the central figure), but they Dortmund won comfortably and looked much more of a team. Immobile, Lewandowski replacement, looked poor, but Klopp says that he is realistic about prospects of replacing such star and instead will try to evolve the team. In any case, their pressing and team play was as impressive as ever.

I really hope they can upset Bayern this season. In financial terms the Bundesliga is something like Chelsea (Bayern) and bunch of Evertons (Borussia, Bayer etc.).

Not sure if Dortmund have the squad depth to consistently get results compared to Pep and Bayern especially considering their ridiculous league form last year.

Would be nice though as its hard to dislike what Klopp and Dortmund are doing. Isn't this pretty much everyones 2nd team crush if you don't actually follow the Bundesliga?

When I was making fun of United players yesterday I forgot...

- Danny Welbeck could be leaving Manchester United for 14 million pounds after learning his playing time could be severely reduced under Louis Van Gaal. Hull City are keen to stump up the cash after losing Shane Long.

Yea thats another guy Adidas probably is fairly indifferent about wearing their logo.

12.02 BST: AS have quoted the Metro about a transfer rumour. Apparently Arsenal are set to offer 63 million pounds to PSG for Edinson Cavani so that the French club can finally sign Angel di Maria from Real Madrid. AS say PSG have outwardly expressed the di Maria deal is dead but firmly believe they can complete it once Cavani is shifted for a big fee.

HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA.... HAAHAHAHAHAHAH.

Yea no. I could imagine Arsenal swooping him up if he PSG were having a fire sale and only then. So Diego Costa for 32 coming off a good season and Cavani for 63 coming off a meh season?

2 Days!!!! I think I'm going to watch about 10hours a of EPL this weekend.

jowner wrote:

2 Days!!!! I think I'm going to watch about 10hours a of EPL this weekend.

Oh man, I cannot wait. This is going to be a great weekend.

jowner wrote:

Not sure if Dortmund have the squad depth to consistently get results compared to Pep and Bayern especially considering their ridiculous league form last year.

They don't. But they had even less when they were winning the league.

Dave obviously won't agree, but Welbeck for about dozen million is a great deal. Hull replacing Long for Welbeck is amazing piece of business.

UCRC wrote:
jowner wrote:

Not sure if Dortmund have the squad depth to consistently get results compared to Pep and Bayern especially considering their ridiculous league form last year.

They don't. But they had even less when they were winning the league.

Dave obviously won't agree, but Welbeck for about dozen million is a great deal. Hull replacing Long for Welbeck is amazing piece of business.

I don't know it'd be a GREAT deal per say, but it's definitely a purchase worth pushing for. At the very least he's proven to be very good at linking up play and/or supporting the scorer.

As far as him being graduated to a true scoring center-forward, it's kind of hard to tell, because he was never allowed to flourish/operate in that capacity at United.

He has proven to be quite good at everything else though.

Just when it looks like Southampton have fixed their lakclustre purchasing they spend £12 million on Shane Long? May as well spend a million or two on Chad Barrett and spend the difference on a striker who might turn out to be somewhat decent.

I'm not sure if they'll win the league but I think Dortmund will do quite well this year. At the least They shouldn't end up having to sign a defender off the street because of an injury crisis. Not getting as ridiculously unlucky as they were last year in that department should help a bit.

Unfortunately it looks like they'll lose Reus next summer with his release clause and I would guess Hummels would go the summer after that. They seem to only manage to lose one key player a season.

Roke wrote:

Just when it looks like Southampton have fixed their lakclustre purchasing they spend £12 million on Shane Long? May as well spend a million or two on Chad Barrett and spend the difference on a striker who might turn out to be somewhat decent.

Long's not a bad option. I'm sure the real price was more like £8 million + 4 in "we know you're sitting on a giant bankroll". He's not a top five team striker, but the Saints aren't a top five team. He's a PL veteran and he puts the ball in the net often enough. He's a runner and I think will fit in with the club style.

That said, I'm in the "would rather have gotten Hernandez" camp.

Roke wrote:

I'm not sure if they'll win the league but I think Dortmund will do quite well this year. At the least They shouldn't end up having to sign a defender off the street because of an injury crisis. Not getting as ridiculously unlucky as they were last year in that department should help a bit.

Unfortunately it looks like they'll lose Reus next summer with his release clause and I would guess Hummels would go the summer after that. They seem to only manage to lose one key player a season.

So they are old Arsenal?

Swiss Ramble did a break down of their financial situation and I think it was an absolute disaster 4-5 years ago that they are only now coming out of the worst of it that they can now start pushing back when larger clubs make advances on their players. Will give it a re-read when I get the chance.

I love how Klopp reacted to transfer rumors regarding Hummels. He pretty much made it clear to his board that he would have to eat a broom stick (so don't sell or I'm quitting) and also laughed off the price of 25m. If David Luiz is worth 50m then its pretty insulting to come after Hummels with supposed fee of 25m. But then again maybe thats how Woodward is operating in the market which explains allot about Uniteds troubles in the transfer market.

Bayern winning the league a couple months early really doesn't make the Bundesliga more watchable. I'm really interested to see what happens over the next 5-10 years in Germany. If the other clubs can start making the league consistently more competitive the viewership will follow and in turn the larger TV deals.

jowner wrote:

If David Luiz is worth 50m

That's a pretty big "if" there.

Pulis has left Crystal Palace over transfer fund dispute.

Does CP without Pulis stay up this year? My gut says no.

Oh man. I saw the talk about the dispute, but figured CP would give in to a transfer or two to smooth everything over.

Two days before the opener? Damn that's killer.

Long is a good player, true, and he will do a job, but Welbeck is a definite upgrade.

Borussia were close to bankruptcy and what Klopp did is on par with Simeone winning LA Liga with Atletico. He turned average prospects into world class players. I always cite the Polish contingent, who came to the club at level which barely qualified them to play in the Bundesliga and all appeared in the leagur's best eleven few years later. Then you have Sahin, Gundogan, Hummels, Subotic, Kagawa. (Reus and Goetze I don't include because everyone knew they were going to be huge stars from the start.)

LilCodger wrote:

Oh man. I saw the talk about the dispute, but figured CP would give in to a transfer or two to smooth everything over.

Two days before the opener? Damn that's killer.

Good news for Arsenal on our opener, I suppose.

I reserve the right to redo my rankings before the first kick off ;P

I'll do mine after the first round, then

As for the Shane Long talk...

Shane Long joins Southampton. Fee £12m. 27-year old scored 4 goals in 17 games for Hull. #saintsfc http://t.co/3Gi9EHJOWE

27? 4 goals in 17 games? Put me in the Hernandez camp. Assuming he wouldn't be more than say 15.

Aint no body getting Hernandez for 15.

17.

jowner wrote:

As for the Shane Long talk...

Shane Long joins Southampton. Fee £12m. 27-year old scored 4 goals in 17 games for Hull. #saintsfc http://t.co/3Gi9EHJOWE

27? 4 goals in 17 games? Put me in the Hernandez camp. Assuming he wouldn't be more than say 15.

Yeah, he's a relegation-calibre striker. Doesn't score at a high rate, doesn't dribble at all, doesn't craft chances for himself, doesn't create chances for others. He's decent at pressing so I guess that's something.

If I desperately needed a striker I would have signed Shola Ameobi on a free before I spent £6 million on Long. £12 million is insanity.

Fun data visualization. Outer-most ring is 95th percentile of players in the big European leagues, inner-most is 5th-percentile:.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvAuc-9CUAAeM6z.png)

You can see Long's entirely reliant on percentages for his goals. There's no shot-volume there and there's nothing else to make up for it.

I don't see why one goal every four games is somehow "abysmal". That puts him somewhere around 10 goals on the season if he can keep that pace, which would tie him for 17th on the league leaderboard last year.

Everybody loved Ricky Lambert -- he scored 13. But he's also known for his penalty taking. He gets 4-5 per season, which puts him at around 10 in open play. Oh, and he came in second on the team to Jay Rodriguez. He's 32 and went for 4 million.

Of players who scored 10 or more last season, there were only seven that didn't play for one of the big 5, and two of those were Saints. Most of the folks above that number on the list are not coming to Southampton.

I also don't see how a high shot percentage is a bad thing. I admit I'm not a huge fan of watching players take loads of low percentage shots.

Relegation-caliber? Really? Only if you consider pretty much everyone not big 5 to be relegation candidates (which I imagine lots of you do).

So, his price is inflated because everyone Southampton is looking at has an inflated price. He has PL experience, which differentiates him from pretty much all the other Saints transfers. And you can pretty much drop him in the lineup for Liverpool this weekend if you really wanted to. I'm guessing he was the best fit of the players that they could sign quickly, which is something their fans are screaming about. I'm also guessing they really hope Pelle is the goal scorer anyway.

As much as I'd love Chicharito, he's probably headed to Italy.

Is it a landmark signing? No. Is it a great signing? No. But it's likely not a horrible signing either. At least not for Southampton. If Liverpool, Arsenal, etc. paid 12 mil for him, I'd expect heads to roll.

LilCodger wrote:

I don't see why one goal every four games is somehow "abysmal". That puts him somewhere around 10 goals on the season if he can keep that pace, which would tie him for 17th on the league leaderboard last year.

Everybody loved Ricky Lambert -- he scored 13. But he's also known for his penalty taking. He gets 4-5 per season, which puts him at around 10 in open play. Oh, and he came in second on the team to Jay Rodriguez. He's 32 and went for 4 million.

Of players who scored 10 or more last season, there were only seven that didn't play for one of the big 5, and two of those were Saints. Most of the folks above that number on the list are not coming to Southampton.

Here's Lambert's radar. Though his (non-penalty) scoring rate is the same he actually brings other players into the attack.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bo3yEZRCIAA9rKz.png)

And while Lambert's much older than Long, he's a better player today and Long's entering age where strikers decline. It wouldn't be surprising if Lambert's still a better striker next year.

I also don't see how a high shot percentage is a bad thing. I admit I'm not a huge fan of watching players take loads of low percentage shots.

Goal-scoring consists of two parts. The shooting percentage and the volume of shots. There's obviously a tradeoff between the two, with Andreas' Townsend's high-volume of 25 yard shots from the right mean pretty much nothing. I don't see anything (from what I've seen from him or the numbers) indicating Lambert's a wasteful distance shooter.

For individuals shot-volume tends to be fairly consistent while percentages can vary wildly. Strikers already run hot and cold (unless you're a Suarez, Messi, or Ronaldo). Guys who rely on percentages will probably have worse dry spells than guys who generate a good volume of quality shots.

Relegation-caliber? Really? Only if you consider pretty much everyone not big 5 to be relegation candidates (which I imagine lots of you do).

Shane Long is a relegation-calibre striker. He's not as bad as Jozy Altidore, but Southampton would have been better served shopping for a couple of young kids from Europe. Without Long they should be well clear of the relegation dogfight so it's stupid blowing money on somebody who doesn't improve the team much, if at all (I lean toward if at all).