NFL 2013: Week 17

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Football Thoughts:

* This year, teams are averaging 349.3 yards of offense per game. That's 31 yards more than just 10 years ago, and all of that yardage is in passing.

* By comparison, the jump from 1993 to 2003 was just 8 more yards, and all 8 of those yards were gains in rushing (passing stayed completely flat, 200.6 yards in 1993, 200.4 yards in 2003).

* Sacks are way up this year - at 6.7%, a half a percentage point higher than just a year ago, and the highest rate since 2005.

* Brent Grimes should be a hot commodity in next year's free agent market. He's played at a Pro Bowl caliber in two different systems now, and he's the only CB playing at that level that's not tied into a long term contract.

* I think the Niners really need to consider re-signing Boldin in the offseason. They need to look in the draft for receivers too, but Boldin is obviously not done, and he has been better than I ever expected. Particularly as #2 opposite Crabtree, and he's the kind of blocker the Niners offense needs.

* Andy Dalton has been a different player since the bye week. 11 TDs to 1 INT, 3-1 record, and a clinched division title.

Pick 'Ems:

It's an all-NFC playoff race pick'em this week. Because let's face it, the AFC is boring right now.

San Francisco @ Arizona: The 49ers clinched a playoff berth last week, but with Seattle's loss, they now find themselves with a potential #1 seed scenario if they win and Seattle loses. Arizona is hanging on by a thread, needing to beat San Francisco and have the Schiano Men topple the Saints.

Green Bay @ Chicago: Winner takes the NFC North and the #4 seed. Loser stays home. (If Chicago wins, they could potentially move up to the #3 seed if Dallas wins our next matchup).

Philadelphia @ Dallas: Winner takes the NFC East. Loser stays home. Philly takes the #3 seed if they win. Dallas would take the #3 seed if Green Bay wins the North, else they take the #4 seed.

St. Louis @ Seattle: Seattle takes the NFC West and the #1 seed if they win. They slide down to the #5 seed if they lose and San Francisco wins, making them the most frightening #5 seed of recent memory.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans: New Orleans has both the potential to clinch a 1st round bye, and the potential to miss the playoffs altogether. They're in the playoffs if they win. They take the NFC South and #2 seed if they win and Carolina loses. But if they lose and Arizona wins, they're out of the dance altogether.

Make your Week 17 picks now!

Last Week's Results:
oldmanscene24 : 5 - 0
Leroyog : 5 - 0
Oddsmakers : 5 - 0
Elliottx : 4 - 1
Jasonofindy : 4 - 1
billt721 : 4 - 1
psu_13 : 4 - 1
thejustinbot : 4 - 1
MilkmanDanimal : 4 - 1
garion333 : 3 - 2
Secret Asian Man : 3 - 2
ZellbrigeN26 : 3 - 2
Infyrnos : 3 - 2
karmajay : 3 - 2
Nomad : 3 - 2
tboon : 3 - 2
McFinn : 3 - 2
Jayhawker : 3 - 2
LeapingGnome : 3 - 2
thegameguru : 3 - 2
Stele : 2 - 3
onewild : 2 - 3
AnimeJ : 2 - 3
Zaque : 2 - 3
Mudbunny : 2 - 3
iaintgotnopants : 2 - 3

Season to Date:
Oddsmakers : 60 - 20
psu_13 : 54 - 26
Leroyog : 53 - 27
tboon : 53 - 27
ZellbrigeN26 : 53 - 27
billt721 : 52 - 28
Zaque : 51 - 29
Jayhawker : 48 - 32
Stele : 48 - 32
TheGameGuru : 48 - 32
McFinn : 47 - 33
thejustinbot : 47 - 33
Elliottx : 46 - 29
oldmanscene24 : 46 - 29
iaintgotnopants : 45 - 35
Jasonofindy : 45 - 35
garion333 : 43 - 32
Grumpicus : 43 - 32
Thin_J : 43 - 27
onewild : 42 - 38
S0LIDARITY : 42 - 28
Infyrnos : 41 - 39
Mudbunny : 41 - 39
Bzzz : 40 - 35
karmajay : 37 - 33
Secret Asian Man : 37 - 38
Xeknos : 37 - 28
MilkmanDanimal : 36 - 34
LeapingGnome : 34 - 36
Cobble : 33 - 12
Kosars : 31 - 14
Kush15 : 30 - 25
Blackanchor : 28 - 27
AnimeJ : 27 - 33
TempestBlayze : 26 - 29
Top_Shelf : 26 - 29
Jolly Bill : 23 - 12
Laarrs : 22 - 13
Nomad : 21 - 19
kaostheory : 20 - 15
jowner : 19 - 11
MudderFudder77 : 16 - 9
FSeven : 12 - 13
TrashiDawa : 12 - 8
paleocon : 11 - 9
Atras : 10 - 15
Gumbie : 8 - 7
lostlobster : 7 - 8
Fedaykin98 : 3 - 2
Certis : 2 - 3

My football related Christmas presents:

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/yJdUKUx.jpg)

If you're not familiar with the story of the Walsh book, here's a great writeup on it.

Oddsmakers left us in the dust with another 5-0 week.

Rodgers is expected to start on Sunday per Fox Sports

As a Bears fan....sh*t, but it's the way it should be. We took him out. We should face his vengeance.

I'm curious, how is the "oddsmaker" score computed? Seems like the thing to do is just follow them.

I always forget what I pick every week anyway.

Damn, that 5-0 locked it up. Nice pickems, Odds

psu_13 wrote:

I'm curious, how is the "oddsmaker" score computed? Seems like the thing to do is just follow them.

I always forget what I pick every week anyway.

Vegas lines? If you just pick by the gambling lines that is boring and what is the point of even playing?

San Francisco at Arizona: It's so much easier to believe in Arizona's defense than it is Carson Palmer.

Green Bay at Chicago: Because Rodgers.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Saw a Football Outsiders stat earlier today; since week 10, Philadelphia has the best offense in the league. Since week 10, Dallas has the worst defense in the league. I would refer to this as an unfortunate combination for Dallas.

St. Louis at Seattle: St. Louis always seems to play Seattle tough, but it's a home game for the Seahawks. Plus, with Jake Long out, Seattle's defense should beat the crap out of Kellen Clemens.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Always a fan of the annual late-season stomping in New Orleans. While Brees' gimpy knee could make this interesting considering the simply phenomenal years Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are having, Tampa's going to get stomped.

I saw mention of Cincinnati fans complaining about Marvin Jones in the Week 16 thread. Did you know he is the 2nd longest tenured coach (11 seasons) and not one of them contained a playoff win. (89-89-1), including playoffs, as head coach of the Bengals. To be honest, I realize he has gone to the playoffs 4 of the last 5 seasons, but how is he still the coach with a .500 win % and 0 playoff wins?

Meanwhile, Lovie Smith got fired for missing the playoffs last year with a (10-6) record, and at least he took his team to the Super Bowl. It's just not fair if you ask me.

Kush15 wrote:

but how is he still the coach with a .500 win % and 0 playoff wins?

I hate these kind of questions. They punish coaches for taking mediocre talented teams and elevating them into playoff teams.

I couldn't agree more. You need to judge coaches on more than just their W-L records.
Honest question: How well has he done developing players and position coaches?

If you considering the festering cesspool of suck the Bengals used to be, Lewis' bringing them up to decent is a pretty significant accomplishment.

Phishposer wrote:

Honest question: How well has he done developing players and position coaches?

I think he has done a fabulous job with Andy Dalton. Dalton does not have the physical talent of any of the other quarterbacks throwing for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs like he has this year.

As for coaches, Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden have flourished on his staff. Hue Jackson and Leslie Frazier worked their way into head coaching jobs from their work on Lewis's staff.

If you want to know why the Bengals aren't better than they are, you need look no further than their personnel department, where you'll find no real general manager, and the NFL's cheapest, more bare-bones scouting staff.

I think it's fair to saw that Lewis makes a lot of lemonade.

Good article on their list of NFL's worst play callers. I think they are spot on with Giants Gilbride..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...

Glad they bumped the Cowboys - Eagles game to Sunday night. Now who to choose to win as a Giants fan...

Last week of pick'em.

Less than 12 hours to go.

Only 20 picks this week.

Oh Carolina. That fumble.

EDIT: And pick 6 to make up for it. Wow.

Looking at this week's pick'em, all 25 of us picked Philly and New Orleans.

Only 2 people picked St Louis.

And the other 2 games are more split.

Carolina without Steve Smith and Detroit without Calvin Johnson are both interesting case studies in watching QBs repeatedly go, "Oh, crap, what the hell do I do now?"

Phil Simms is so awful. If I had enough money to pay someone to punch him mid-sentence during a game I would do it.

Also Andy Dalton is still a middling QB. He's just constantly getting bailed out by what is IMO one of the most complete and highly talented groups of receivers in the entire league.

Only other one I can think of with as many or more people who can hurt a defense is Denver.

Dalton intercepted again. You might be on to something Thin_J.

Dalton is turning it over but Flacco can't throw near his receivers. Pretty pathetic game

Dalton throws his third pick, second that's straight up his fault.

Bailed out again by the defense who hold Baltimore to a field goal.

All of Baltimore's points have come on a short field due to interceptions or in one case the most horribly shanked punt I have ever seen. It went 10 yards. After a three and out.

*Horrible unnecessary roughness call against Baltimore puts Cincy close again. Green Ellis breaks three tackles to put them on the goal line immediately after. Then... Dalton makes an awful throw on first down for a fourth interception.

*I just noticed it scrolling on the bottom of the screen. Houston "clinched" the first pick in the draft.

Aaaand Pittsburg is on their way to the playoffs. Its left up to SD and they're in. That's crazy.

garion333 wrote:

Dalton is turning it over but Flacco can't throw near his receivers. Pretty pathetic game

Definitely unimpressive on both sides. Just really sloppy.

The only impressive thing has been Cincy's defense who have been more or less a wall, only giving points because of horrible field position.

*Right as I say that the defense gets a pick 6 on Flacco to more or less seal the game. Horrible throw from Flacco though.

To be fair... the Bengals have been beating the crap out of him this game.

garion333 wrote:

Aaaand Pittsburg is on their way to the playoffs. Its left up to SD and they're in. That's crazy.

Good luck with that. Alex Smith and Jamal Charles are inactive, and they plan to rest most of the starters today. The Chiefs are the five seed regardless, and using this a pre-postseason game.

Jayhawker wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Aaaand Pittsburg is on their way to the playoffs. Its left up to SD and they're in. That's crazy.

Good luck with that. Alex Smith and Jamal Charles are inactive, and they plan to rest most of the starters today. The Chiefs are the five seed regardless, and using this a pre-postseason game.

Yeah, highly unlikely that SD is gonna lose, but weirder things have happened.

Okay, I stand corrected.

Oh Cardinals. You make me sad. But not surprised.

*Legion* wrote:

* I think the Niners really need to consider re-signing Boldin in the offseason. They need to look in the draft for receivers too, but Boldin is obviously not done, and he has been better than I ever expected. Particularly as #2 opposite Crabtree, and he's the kind of blocker the Niners offense needs.

He's killing it back in Arizona today already.

6 catches for 106 yards and a TD in the first quarter.

GB is so lucky.

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