NFL 2013: Week 3

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So *Legion* is traveling for work this week (and next), and has asked that I take over the thread, in addition to tallying all the picks like I have been. I feel like my big mouth saying "just use google docs" before the season has somehow turned into a part-time job.

Week 2 Results
San Diego at Philadelphia: 33-30 Everyone (except justinbot) underestimated the Chargers. They aren't who we thought they were?

San Francisco at Seattle: 3-29 Not sure I can talk about this one objectively. I'll just say that the 49ers lost in Seattle last year but still made the Super Bowl, so Don't Panic!™

Carolina at Buffalo: 23-24 Great game, and a tough pick. EJ Manuel throws a TD with 2 seconds left to set the final score.

Washington at Green Bay: 20-38 Not even close. Packers bounce back from week 1 loss in strong fashion. Questions about RG3's health and more criticism about him not playing pre-season games come from the media.

Minnesota at Chicago: 30-31 Game-winning drive by Jay Cutler? Alright then. Another tough pick and close game, although you wouldn't know it by us since all but 3 people picked Chicago.

So, since almost everyone missed the Chargers pick, the results for this week are pretty ugly.

Week 2 Pick Results:
psu_13 : 4 - 1
Jolly Bill : 4 - 1

Stele : 3 - 2
oldmanscene24 : 3 - 2
Elliottx : 3 - 2
Jayhawker : 3 - 2
onewild : 3 - 2
Xeknos : 3 - 2
thejustinbot : 3 - 2
s0lidarity : 3 - 2
tboon : 3 - 2
Cobble : 3 - 2
garion333 : 3 - 2
Jowner : 3 - 2
iaintgotnopants : 3 - 2
Kosars : 3 - 2
Top_Shelf : 3 - 2
mudbunny : 3 - 2
Zaque : 3 - 2
TempestBlayze : 3 - 2
paleocon : 3 - 2
MilkmanDanimal : 3 - 2
FSeven : 3 - 2
Mudderfudder77 : 3 - 2
billt721 : 3 - 2
Bzzz : 3 - 2
lostlobster : 3 - 2
Kush15 : 3 - 2

Leroyog : 2 - 3
Grumpicus : 2 - 3
Gumbie : 2 - 3
kaostheory : 2 - 3
Laarrs : 2 - 3
Infyrnos : 2 - 3
Zellbrigen26 : 2 - 3
Atras : 2 - 3
TheGameGuru : 2 - 3
McFinn : 2 - 3
Jasonofindy : 2 - 3
Thin_J : 2 - 3
Blackanchor : 2 - 3
LeapingGnome : 2 - 3

Secret Asian Man : 1 - 4
karmajay : 1 - 4

And combined with last week's results (including everyone who only picked 1 week or the other), here come the season standings. What fun I had with spreadsheets during MNF last night figuring this out. :p

Season Pick Results:
Jolly Bill : 9 - 1
psu_13 : 9 - 1

billt721 : 8 - 2
Cobble : 8 - 2
Kush15 : 8 - 2
mudbunny : 8 - 2
tboon : 8 - 2
Zaque : 8 - 2

kaostheory : 7 - 3
Elliottx : 7 - 3
Jayhawker : 7 - 3
Kosars : 7 - 3
MudderFudder77 : 7 - 3
oldmanscene24 : 7 - 3
s0lidarity : 7 - 3
thejustinbot : 7 - 3
Mudderfudder77 : 7 - 3

Laarrs : 6 - 4
McFinn : 6 - 4
TheGameGuru : 6 - 4
Bzzz : 6 - 4
garion333 : 6 - 4
Jowner : 6 - 4
MilkmanDanimal : 6 - 4
onewild : 6 - 4
paleocon : 6 - 4
Stele : 6 - 4
Top_Shelf : 6 - 4
Xeknos : 6 - 4

Secret Asian Man : 5 - 5
Gumbie : 5 - 5
Jasonofindy : 5 - 5
LeapingGnome : 5 - 5
Leroyog : 5 - 5
Thin_J : 5 - 5
Zellbrigen26 : 5 - 5
FSeven : 5 - 5
iaintgotnopants : 5 - 5
TempestBlayze : 5 - 5

karmajay : 4 - 6
Atras : 4 - 6
Grumpicus : 4 - 6
Infyrnos : 4 - 6

Fedaykin98 : 3 - 2
lostlobster : 3 - 2

Certis : 2 - 3
lostlobster : 2 - 3
Blackanchor : 2 - 3

Alright, now that that's all out there, let's segue from week 2 to week 3 with some playoff talk.

Too soon to talk playoffs? Nope. Several 0-2 teams are in trouble.

Looking at the bigger picture, since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff field in 1990, teams that are winless after the first two weeks have only made the playoffs 11.6 percent of the time.

And more importantly, some teams are in must-win games this week, like the NY Giants.

Since 1990, only three 0-3 teams have made the NFL playoffs + none since 1998

With a couple of must-win games in mind in week 3, time to move on to the picks...

Chargers @ Titans: Both these teams lost to Houston on last-second plays or overtime in the first two weeks. Should be an interesting game between 1-1 teams fighting for respect.

Packers @ Bengals: Two teams picked by many to win their respective divisions. Two teams with disappointing losses in week 1. Two teams that bounced back with impressive wins in week 2.

Browns @ Vikings: Playoff elimination game in week 3! Pretty much. One of these 0-2 teams will fall to 0-3, and by the numbers that will probably be the end of the season for them. Choose your loser carefully here, as you are dooming them to a playoff-less year.

Lions @ Redskins: More 0-2 running on 0-3 trouble here. Can the Redskins recover their season or will things spiral out of control? The Lions haven't been tested yet, playing 2 teams in the lower half of the power rankings (*see below), and coming out 1-1.

Bears @ Steelers: Sunday Night Football. Win or go home time for the Steelers. Jay Cutler is making 4th quarter comebacks. Can the Pittsburgh defense come up big or are they too old to make another playoff run?

Make your week 3 picks here

*Other talking point besides playoffs: ESPN Power Rankings
Seattle jumps to #1, ahead of Denver, despite Seattle looking good in 1 week, while Denver looked good in both? San Diego moves up 10 spots from 26th to 16th? The entire NFC East loses and drops 2-5 spots each. Agree? Disagree?

*Other talking point besides playoffs: ESPN Power Rankings
Seattle jumps to #1, ahead of Denver, despite Seattle looking good in 1 week, while Denver looked good in both? San Diego moves up 10 spots from 26th to 16th? The entire NFC East loses and drops 2-5 spots each. Agree? Disagree?

Seattle looks more complete and they KILLED the 49ers. KILLED. So, I get it. The Broncos have an offense, but Seattle has a team. For now.

I won't be surprised to see the Dolphins continue to climb. I liked what I saw of Tannehill in week 1 (seemed to do better in week 2) and their defense is pretty damn good.

garion333 wrote:
*Other talking point besides playoffs: ESPN Power Rankings
Seattle jumps to #1, ahead of Denver, despite Seattle looking good in 1 week, while Denver looked good in both? San Diego moves up 10 spots from 26th to 16th? The entire NFC East loses and drops 2-5 spots each. Agree? Disagree?

Seattle looks more complete and they KILLED the 49ers. KILLED. So, I get it. The Broncos have an offense, but Seattle has a team. For now.

Er, it was 12-3 starting the 4th. And it was at home.

The Broncos beat the Giants 41-23 on the road.

And since it's theoretically based on the whole season, the Broncos were infinitely more impressive in week 1, completely dominating Baltimore, while Seattle barely escaped Carolina.

May have acquired a 1997 September Playboy with a NFL preview and Chris Farley interview.

The first opening line I've seen for Jags Sea is... 19.5. I can't remember the last time there was such a large line.

Stele wrote:
garion333 wrote:
*Other talking point besides playoffs: ESPN Power Rankings
Seattle jumps to #1, ahead of Denver, despite Seattle looking good in 1 week, while Denver looked good in both? San Diego moves up 10 spots from 26th to 16th? The entire NFC East loses and drops 2-5 spots each. Agree? Disagree?

Seattle looks more complete and they KILLED the 49ers. KILLED. So, I get it. The Broncos have an offense, but Seattle has a team. For now.

Er, it was 12-3 starting the 4th. And it was at home.

The Broncos beat the Giants 41-23 on the road.

And since it's theoretically based on the whole season, the Broncos were infinitely more impressive in week 1, completely dominating Baltimore, while Seattle barely escaped Carolina.

Not to mention that Denver will look significantly better on defense once Bailey and Miller are back.

jowner wrote:

The first opening line I've seen for Jags Sea is... 19.5. I can't remember the last time there was such a large line.

Guess I should have included those for this week's picks...

From ESPN:
Titans by 3.
Packers by 1 to 3.
Vikings by 5 to 6.
Redskins by 1 to 1.5.
Bears by 1.5 to 2.5

Weird that my picks were 1-4 since my full weekly picks at my wife's bar I only missed 3 total!

I found this, a year late but still pertinent:

IMAGE(http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/5894/wc9.gif)

Stele wrote:

*Other talking point besides playoffs: ESPN Power Rankings
Seattle jumps to #1, ahead of Denver, despite Seattle looking good in 1 week, while Denver looked good in both? San Diego moves up 10 spots from 26th to 16th? The entire NFC East loses and drops 2-5 spots each. Agree? Disagree?

I think they have both the Falcons and the Texans too high. To me the top four should be Seattle, San Fran, Denver and Green Bay. And you can put those in any order.

As far as the NFC East, they are in a race with the AFC North to be the worst division in football this year.

thejustinbot wrote:

As far as the NFC East, they are in a race with the AFC North to be the worst division in football this year.

4 of the 8 teams that are 0-2 are in those divisions. And both divisions have matching 2-6 combined records.

NFC South is close with 2 0-2 teams, and 3-5 combined record. But man, the Bucs and Panthers have lost by a combined total of 3 and 6 points in their two games, respectively. So close to being a lot better.

Stele wrote:
thejustinbot wrote:

As far as the NFC East, they are in a race with the AFC North to be the worst division in football this year.

4 of the 8 teams that are 0-2 are in those divisions. And both divisions have matching 2-6 combined records.

NFC South is close with 2 0-2 teams, and 3-5 combined record. But man, the Bucs and Panthers have lost by a combined total of 3 and 6 points in their two games, respectively. So close to being a lot better.

I think we will be revisiting Carolina and TB at the end of the year as teams who have talent that their coaches managed to absolutely f*ck up.

Just in case my picks don't register:

Chargers @ Titans
Packers @ Bengals
Browns @ Vikings
Lions @ Redskins
Bears @ Steelers

even without Miller and Bailey, the Denver D is looking tough (avg 3 takeaways per game and give up an avg of two yards per rush/5yd per pass). Exp when you consider that it doesn't get a huge break between possessions. Manning has the Offense down the field in a flash.

jowner wrote:
Stele wrote:
thejustinbot wrote:

As far as the NFC East, they are in a race with the AFC North to be the worst division in football this year.

4 of the 8 teams that are 0-2 are in those divisions. And both divisions have matching 2-6 combined records.

NFC South is close with 2 0-2 teams, and 3-5 combined record. But man, the Bucs and Panthers have lost by a combined total of 3 and 6 points in their two games, respectively. So close to being a lot better.

I think we will be revisiting Carolina and TB at the end of the year as teams who have talent that their coaches managed to absolutely f*ck up.

Indeed. But on a neutral field, in a series, I'd take either the Buccs or the Panthers over the Steelers, Browns, Giants and Eagles right now with almost no reservations. And I could probably make the case for the Redkins, Ravens and Cowboys too. Bengals are the only team in either division I feel are solid, and even they laid something of a goose egg on Monday night.

Suh is going to go Mutant League Football on RGIII this week. I'm guessing he rips off his leg just below the injured knee and proceeds to beat him with it. Jim Schwartz looks the other way.

Edit: I don't appreciate having to pick all the teams in the NFC North this week. The homer in me wants to go Bears win, everyone else loses, but I, sadly, don't see that happening.

I think the rest of the division has favorable matchups.

Chargers @ Titans: I just have no faith in Jake Locker and the Titans.

Packers @ Bengals: I like the Bengals. I want the Bengals to win. I hate the Packers. I want the Packers to lose. I think the Packers are just the better team. Hopefully, the Bengals use this snub as motivation to win this week!

Browns @ Vikings: I haven't watched the Browns play this year. They lost to Miami putting up only 10 points. They lost to Baltimore with only 6 points. After watching the Vikings play a very close game against the Bears last week, I can't imagine that offensive incompetence is going to let them win, even if they are getting Josh Gordon back from suspension.

Lions @ Redskins: I think this is the toughest game of the week to judge. I dislike both teams. I think Calvin Johnson will destroy the Redskin defense. I just hope it will be in vain. This is a "I think both teams suck, but one is in our division, so I hope they lose" pick.

Bears @ Steelers: This isn't just a homer pick. I think the Steelers are in decline. Big Ben isn't up to his old form, and he doesn't really have much around him to work with. The defense is ancient and not up to their old standards. As much as I love the Bears, I don't think they're a top tier team, but I think they're good enough to beat the Steelers and move to 3-0.

kaostheory wrote:

Packers @ Bengals: I like the Bengals. I want the Bengals to win. I hate the Packers. I want the Packers to lose. I think the Packers are just the better team. Hopefully, the Bengals use this snub as motivation to win this week!

Andy Dalton: That f*cking kaostheory. I'll f*cking show him!

Easy week to make the actual picks, for the Pack, against the rest of the division. We are supposed to pick what we hope for and not the actual probable outcome right?

ZellbrigeN26 wrote:

even without Miller and Bailey, the Denver D is looking tough (avg 3 takeaways per game and give up an avg of two yards per rush/5yd per pass). Exp when you consider that it doesn't get a huge break between possessions. Manning has the Offense down the field in a flash.

I'm looking forward to watching the Chiefs D take on that offense. I'm glas they don't play Denver until late (and then 2 out of three weeks when they do), as it will allow more time for them to develop the confidence in their defense before Manning starts dissecting it.

I'm just hoping they get their offense rolling by then. They won't be holding Manning to just one TD, regardless of how well they play. It would be fun if they can present a strong challenge to Denver.

jowner wrote:
kaostheory wrote:

Packers @ Bengals: I like the Bengals. I want the Bengals to win. I hate the Packers. I want the Packers to lose. I think the Packers are just the better team. Hopefully, the Bengals use this snub as motivation to win this week!

Andy Dalton: That f*cking kaostheory. I'll f*cking show him!

Right! We're all aware that Andy Dalton's self-worth is tied directly to my opinion of how well his team matches up against the Packers.

It was tempting to pick the Browns especially since Weeden may not play.
EDIT: Wait, Hoyer is going to get the start. Definitely can't pick the Browns on the road. Looks like the Browns are already racing the Jags for Clowney.

Hoyer is starting? That's ... interesting. The Brady Effect, eh?

Good news: Only missed 3 total in wife's bar pick and won $160. bad news: at the beginning of season we made a deal that whatever winnings we made of the weekly picks would go towards house stuff

Adam Schefter just broke:

Filed to ESPN: Browns RB Trent Richardson traded to Indy for Colts' first-round pick.

Is this the earliest a team has started tanking? In one week they go with their third string QB and trade away their one offensive weapon.

Just got an NFL alert that the Colts trade a first-rounder next year for Trent Richardson. Holy #$@#$@%!!!!

Curses! Tannelliotted!

Let the Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes begin.

Browns are awesome.

My dynasty team is very excited about this development.

Chargers @ Titans: I trust a shaky Philip Rivers more than a shaky Jake Locker.

Packers @ Bengals: Bengals, simply because I think their defensive line can eat the Packers' o-line for lunch

Browns @ Vikings: I think it's safe to say the playoff elimination happened for both these teams. I do wish this game was in Cleveland, just to watch the fans sob in the wake of the Richardson trade. GOD HATES CLEVELAND.

Lions @ Redskins: Redskins are at home, and Detroit's secondary is a decent place to have a resurgence.

Bears @ Steelers: Pittsburgh is old. Very old. The Bears appear to have an offensive line, and Jay Cutler is probably going to actually survive the years.

Suck for Johnny Football?

Willis McGahee to sign with Cleveland pending physical (not michael turner??)

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/18/willis-mcgahee-taking-physical-with-browns/

Not sure if I get it.

He was a 3rd overall and now the pick is what a 15th tops around next year?

Besides the surprise of it happening I expected them to be getting some combination of multiple picks.

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