FF13: Fantasy Football 2013 catch-all thread

I feel like this is my year in the keeper league. I have some insane values from previous drafts. If I can't pull off a respectable finish this year, I'm going to be super duper sad.

Peyton Manning
CJ Spiller
Marshawn Lynch
Stevan Ridley
Brandon Marshall
Danny Amendola
Miles Austin
Rob Gronkowski

Josh Gordon after his 2 weeks of suspension.

My only concern is that this is such a receiver friendly scoring system, having 3 top tier running backs might be a disadvantage.

kaostheory wrote:

My only concern is that this is such a receiver friendly scoring system, having 3 top tier running backs might be a disadvantage.

Remember that PPR was dialed back to .5 to "balance out" the fact that you can now go 5 wide on receivers.

Ya I read that article a couple weeks back and actually calculated the cost of the keepers I thought each team would keep and figured out the inflation price for our draft. It turned out to be almost double the 'going rate' in a standard draft with no keepers. During the draft however, this didn't really play out. There weren't many players at the high end at all that went for much more than what their suggested price in a normal draft would be. Where I noticed inflation was on the low to mid tier players that normally would have gone for perhaps $3 to $6 went for around double. I think our keeper rules reward so much of getting good cheap players that those guys were inflated more-so than top end talent that would be thrown back into the pool next year anyways.

kaostheory wrote:

My only concern is that this is such a receiver friendly scoring system, having 3 top tier running backs might be a disadvantage.

Same. I have 3 top RBs so I didn't bid on Lamar Miller for the sole reason of the position rule changes (only 1 required RB) this year. That was painful because he went so cheaply compared to where I thought he should have gone.

oldmanscene24 wrote:

This made me VERY happy for having my receiving corps in place via keepers. I was only looking to fill a couple of low-level receiver slots and thought I could get them for a buck or two late in the draft, but even those guys were going for more than I thought they would.

Oh so you're the reason I had to pay so much for so little in terms of receivers. Dammit.

kaostheory wrote:

I feel like this is my year in the keeper league. I have some insane values from previous drafts. If I can't pull off a respectable finish this year, I'm going to be super duper sad.

You too!

Glad I could help!

I need to practice auction drafts. I do not have that "feel" during an auction draft.

Standard snake drafts, I can feel. When something happens, the rest of my mental model of the draft updates. But I do not have that perspective in auction format. Probably why my keeper team was far and away my worst team last year. I need auction skills.

Auction drafts are more chaotic and, I think, harder to get a feel for. That's part of the magic. They're the RTS draft to TBS snake drafting.

I'm getting some feel for auction drafts but I'm still lacking. I had a plan going in to be very aggressive on getting a top tier talent and sooner in the draft the better. When I came out swinging and got Calvin Johnson for $10 more then my appropriate cost for him, I felt really validated by witnessing the 10 players I had directly under him go for on average $15 more then the appropriate cost. I felt really good chasing Jordy Nelson to his exact cost and winning him as he was just outside my top 15 available players.

But then I had Brandon Pettigrew fall on me for his cost when I was over-aggressively price enforcing. Plus I don't feel like I have as many players who could "pop" during the year as I normally do.

And I still feel like a freshmen at Homecoming when it comes to rookie auction value in a keeper league. Just utterly confused and insecure.

garion333 wrote:

Auction drafts are more chaotic and, I think, harder to get a feel for. That's part of the magic. They're the RTS draft to TBS snake drafting.

There's a mental model there, though, that when certain players go too cheaply or too expensively, it impacts the rest of the draft. But I just haven't wrapped my head around recognizing what that impact is in real-time.

We all like to think our high pick RBs are gonna do well.

That and PPR dropping to half a point, I guess.

kaostheory wrote:

My only concern is that this is such a receiver friendly scoring system, having 3 top tier running backs might be a disadvantage.

Here is the breakdown on how the flex positions are being used in week 1:

2 RB(3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE)37 teams61.67%
1 RB, 1 WR(2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE)16 teams26.67%
2 WR(1 RB, 5 WR, 1 TE)3 teams5%
1 RB, 1 TE(2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE)3 teams5%
1 WR, 1 TE(1 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE)1 team1.67%

Given the opportunity to add another receiver in this receiver-friendly scoring system, only 5 percent of teams chose to go 5-wide (with another 1 - 1.67% of the sample - adding a TE instead of a WR). Put differently, only 6.67% of teams elected to field a configuration that was unavailable last season (single RB). Interesting.

That being said, giving people more flexibility on how to configure their team was exactly the point of this experiment. Hopefully, it adds interest for the owners.

For comparison, here's what last season's week 1 looked like:

RB(3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE)33 teams55%
WR(2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE)23 teams38.33%
TE(2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE)6 teams6.67%

Definitely more full house backfields in 2013.

I think we'll see that shift in the coming weeks. Going into the season everyone hopes the RBs they drafted are studs while they know their backup WRs are probably consistent. After a bunch of RBs finish with 5 points in the coming weeks we'll see those 9 point WRs get their share.

I wonder if it's the psychological effect of halving PPR.

I can't believe I started Cecil Shorts over Brian Hartline again. I did this all last season. Always had the wrong one in my lineup. Always.

I think lineups are RB heavy to start because of the uncertainty of workload with WRs. RBs seem a safer bet early on. My lineups are RB heavy but I expect to flex more WRs once I see who is getting reliable workloads.

Suddenly my Dynasty RB depth, thanks to Miller and Wilson, looks as deep as a puddle.

Good news for Stevan Ridley owners: Shane Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and is having surgery on it, which will put him on the shelf for a few weeks.

*Legion* wrote:

Good news for Stevan Ridley owners: Shane Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and is having surgery on it, which will put him on the shelf for a few weeks.

Frack