FF13: Fantasy Football 2013 catch-all thread

*Legion* wrote:

One idea that could be explored is having the league's owners elect a handful of people to form a "rules committee".

Like you and Boogle haven't been my de facto rules committee for years. That's right, if I go down, you're coming with me!

I just figured this thread every year was the rules 'committee' with the commish making the call. Now I find out there are back room deals going on! Shenanigans!!

Seriously though, I wouldn't mind a 4 month early discussion about rules to whet my appetite for the upcoming football season every year!

Edit: In fact, isn't that what happened last year? With all the keeper discussion about changing how the keeper's are calculated? I'm glad you're not offended Grump, mostly I just like the discussion taking place before rules changes are announced, regardless of the change. It looks like I'll get my discussion fix in afterwards for no charge anyway. Definitely looking forward to seeing how the changes affect decisions this year.

Speaking of boogle, I'm curious if the statistical difference in scoring has been analyzed yet.

Give me some specs and some data.

Hey bandit I guess you are very adventurous person, wanna make competition with you, so are you ready for my challenge. http://www.hypedc.com/

So that's a no? All I was looking for since Grump called you out as a high level advisor. Do you want a link to some 2012 player stats?

I looked up some of it myself... This change drops total receiving points (for the top 200 players) by about 18%. Running points don't change. The number of potential runningback slots does not change, while potential WR spots increase by 25% and potential TE spots by 50% respectively. Do receivers become more or less valuable in this situation?

TE's become more valuable due to the increased flexibility / consistency of points against certain opponents (mentioned in TE streaming).

Top tier RB's become clearly more valuable while Top tier WR's become clearly less valuable. Purely a points change there as both would be starting anyway.

Mid tier RB's and WR's stay about the same. Mid tier WR's still have to be filling in the slots anyway, down to the point where 3rd and 4th receivers there is a lot of variability. Mid tier RB's lose value due to the flex but gain it back since receivers lose points, a net wash. Major question here is if there are enough top WR's in any given year to push mid tier RB's down the list.

Net result? I think the first round goes back to RB fest for those who did their homework, TE's climb up about a round on average (with more claimed in the later rounds) and both changes are at the expense of WR's throughout the draft.

That's a I have no idea what analysis you want so write some specs and give me a data dump and I'll do it for you

I'm not putting in a job ticket here boogle, I just want to have a conversation

'Statistical difference' is a crappy term.
Better option would by to look at say ADP or points above replacement for rb/wr/te positions and determine how that would affect one using solely last seasons data to draft for last season.
The fundamental question here is how does this scoring change affect fantasy value, measure that however you want and flag players which have a noted improvement/regression in your measure and the corresponding rank among all rb/wr/te.

boogle wrote:

flag players which have a noted improvement/regression in your measure and the corresponding rank among all rb/wr/te.

I think you should do this, for the benefit of the group.

A.) I am quite lazy.
B.) We have not decided upon a measure (FF points or points above replacement should be good)

If anyone is truly interested I could use a data gopher, the scripts shouldn't be more than 100 lines of python or so.
And I can make graphs. Fancy, fancy graphs. I'm going to assume ukick volunteers.

Man, I just realized at least two of my keepers are out for the season with injuries already. Dennis Pitta and Percy Harvin. Both were pretty clear keepers for me, at least at full health. I still have a ton of keeper potentials on my team, but not happy to see that kind of news :-/

I have Jeremy Maclin in both keeper and dynasty leagues. Probably will stash him on IR in dynasty, cut him loose in keeper.

*Legion* wrote:

I have Jeremy Maclin in both keeper and dynasty leagues. Probably will stash him on IR in dynasty, cut him loose in keeper.

Ouch. Although at $30 in Keeper that's not a terrible loss. At $22 to keep, I'm not as upset about losing Harvin as I am about losing Pitta at $7.

I may have missed it but when do we go through the task of deciding who to cut in Dynasty?

In case I wasn't clear (including to him), other than the re-registration, Dynasty is practically wholly under the auspices of *Legion* (until he refuses to do it anymore). I will also, should y'all need it, organize a D-league draft night.

Grumpicus wrote:

In case I wasn't clear (including to him), other than the re-registration, Dynasty is practically wholly under the auspices of *Legion* (until he refuses to do it anymore). I will also, should y'all need it, organize a D-league draft night.

Yeah, my question wasn't pointed at anyone in particular. Just whoever could answer it.

When do we start organizing draft times?

TempestBlayze wrote:

When do we start organizing draft times?

Once we know who is in what league. Speaking of which, there's a little more than 24 hours left until the cutoff and I'm worried that we're not going to have enough to stock D-II. Anyone not in D-II want to double-up? Alternately, if anyone in that was previously in an upper league (ie. .D-I or Pro) wants to un-retire, that would have the same effect (i.e. getting us up to the required 36 teams in the standard format).

I'm not sure if this is the right spot to ask, but I was looking to join another fantasy football league this year. I'd be happy to join any GWJ group that would have me.

S0LIDARITY wrote:

I'm not sure if this is the right spot to ask, but I was looking to join another fantasy football league this year. I'd be happy to join any GWJ group that would have me.

Go here.

http://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/1...

FSeven wrote:
S0LIDARITY wrote:

I'm not sure if this is the right spot to ask, but I was looking to join another fantasy football league this year. I'd be happy to join any GWJ group that would have me.

Go here.

http://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/1...

Thanks, looked like I'm just making the deadline. I just got my college-friends league e-mail yesterday. I haven't even done a mock draft yet, looks like I'll be thoroughly unprepared.

My naming strategy typically centers around slamming the Browns. This year I really wanted to make something about Mike being the only Lombardi they'll ever get, but had to settle for 'Barkevious up the Wrong Tree' due to a character limit.

Anybody in the keeper league willing to share your thoughts ahead of the draft? I know it kinda runs counter to the 'mind game' inherent in the auction model, but I'm having a lot of trouble satisfying my pre-draft football fix on the auction side due to the lack of relevant material on the subject. Especially with our particular mix of rules. Personally, when it comes down to draft day I just don't see it making a big difference with this crowd if we talk about it early.

One thing I find odd is the huge disparity between two particular fields of thought in the auction draft. Some auction lists have huge prices for the top players and then it quickly drops down to the sub $4 level for everyone else. Apparently some people think that the top tier players should be bid up ridiculously to the $60, $70+ levels leaving that much less money for the rest of the team. That is definitely not how we've drafted in the past (with 1 or 2 exceptions), but it's an interesting unstated assumption that lies behind all the values people give the players.

We don't have all the data laid out in front of us, but there really should be a pretty clear value proposition between a given player's projected stats, scoring and roster rules for the league, and the total money pool allowed in the league. It's one thing if that changes once the auction happens due to different bidding styles and such, but to see such different preparation going into the draft is really surprising to me.

I've got a couple sources I trust more than others due to the conservative nature of their pricing, but even that could end up with me overvaluing a bunch of lower players due to the available money pool remaining if everyone else overvalues the higher players to use up their money.

Yeah, I need tips for the non-GWJ draft I'm about to be in. You're letting me down, Sports forum!

Jolly Bill wrote:

One thing I find odd is the huge disparity between two particular fields of thought in the auction draft. Some auction lists have huge prices for the top players and then it quickly drops down to the sub $4 level for everyone else. Apparently some people think that the top tier players should be bid up ridiculously to the $60, $70+ levels leaving that much less money for the rest of the team. That is definitely not how we've drafted in the past (with 1 or 2 exceptions), but it's an interesting unstated assumption that lies behind all the values people give the players.

We don't have all the data laid out in front of us, but there really should be a pretty clear value proposition between a given player's projected stats, scoring and roster rules for the league, and the total money pool allowed in the league. It's one thing if that changes once the auction happens due to different bidding styles and such, but to see such different preparation going into the draft is really surprising to me.

I've got a couple sources I trust more than others due to the conservative nature of their pricing, but even that could end up with me overvaluing a bunch of lower players due to the available money pool remaining if everyone else overvalues the higher players to use up their money.

wordsmythe wrote:

Yeah, I need tips for the non-GWJ draft I'm about to be in. You're letting me down, Sports forum!

Okay, well, my take is that you NEED a stud. Generally this comes down to getting a stud RB as there's only so many to go around. I find it's easier in an auction draft to get a couple of studs fairly early on and then more or less cherry pick some seemingly lesser talent as people will spend more out of desperation on the one or two stud RBs left than they may have earlier.

Btw a stud isn't necessarily top 3 player at their position, though it's likely they will be, but someone who is a consistently high scorer. That's why people draft Matt Ryan instead of Joe Flacco.

Do I think you need a $60 player? In most cases, yes. You need a stud RB or WR (in a PPR league). I like to target 8 or 10 players I'm willing to spend $50+ for and then fight for them. If I don't get one of those, then I NEED two from my next tier which may end up costing more than that one player. Sometimes that works, sometimes that doesn't, but the value of an Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers can't be understated. One player can lift you from a mediocre team to a championship.

I believe there's more volatility in trying to get multiple second or third tier players than just one top tier player.

Think of fantasy football as a bell curve, there's only so many 10% players that can go around. You want one of them. If you get two you're likely to win because the dropoff is pretty steep after the first or high second tier.

Snake drafts are completely different. I'm not going to argue with someone taking Calvin Johnson at the end of the first, but you're almost certainly going to need to take RBs with your next two picks (or at least the next 3 out of 4 or 5).

Obviously injuries will derail the perfect draft.

Waiver wire is incredibly important also. You can't ignore completely and except to win unless you're super lucky and your team doesn't get hurt.

Last thought: In terms of drafting this year it's tough. A LOT of rookies performed well last year and have become highly valued (see: Doug Martin). That makes drafting somewhat tougher as people are less likely to shy away form underperforming 2nd year players and rookies. Because of this I've enjoyed older, less flashy players to fall more than before.

When in doubt draft every Cowboy player possible.

Jolly Bill wrote:

Anybody in the keeper league willing to share your thoughts ahead of the draft? I know it kinda runs counter to the 'mind game' inherent in the auction model, but I'm having a lot of trouble satisfying my pre-draft football fix on the auction side due to the lack of relevant material on the subject.

Well this probably isn't what you're looking for and everyone has probably seen it already but here's something: Fantasy football auction strategy

Since it's too late to be relevant for our drafts, I'll just throw this into the catch-all: Calculating keeper league inflation

Yeah, good call on that article. There's also the factor that usually the money chases the top available players so you can expect higher inflation on the top end of talent and lower inflation below, but that didn't really happen this year. Everyone looked a lot more experienced in drafting for the keeper league, I was pretty impressed across the board. Honestly, I think the biggest steals of the draft were rabbit's pickups of Chris Johnson at $35 and Frank Gore at $33. Not exactly getting a deal on either player but getting top end guys at close to market value in a league with so much extra money floating around was impressive. Even with the changes to receiver value, EVERYONE was chasing receivers down the list and paying more money than expected. I think all the inflation may have gone to receivers this year.

Jolly Bill wrote:

Yeah, good call on that article. There's also the factor that usually the money chases the top available players so you can expect higher inflation on the top end of talent and lower inflation below, but that didn't really happen this year. Everyone looked a lot more experienced in drafting for the keeper league, I was pretty impressed across the board. Honestly, I think the biggest steals of the draft were rabbit's pickups of Chris Johnson at $35 and Frank Gore at $33. Not exactly getting a deal on either player but getting top end guys at close to market value in a league with so much extra money floating around was impressive. Even with the changes to receiver value, EVERYONE was chasing receivers down the list and paying more money than expected. I think all the inflation may have gone to receivers this year.

This made me VERY happy for having my receiving corps in place via keepers. I was only looking to fill a couple of low-level receiver slots and thought I could get them for a buck or two late in the draft, but even those guys were going for more than I thought they would.