Nextbox rumors..

shoptroll wrote:

I personally think used game sales is the younger sibling to gaming piracy.

Wait. What?

How old are you? (Not a sarcastic question, serious one). I'm in my late 30s and used video game sales have been around for 30 years. You never traded games with a friend? Let a friend borrow a game?

DSGamer wrote:

How old are you? (Not a sarcastic question, serious one). I'm in my late 30s and used video game sales have been around for 30 years. You never traded games with a friend? Let a friend borrow a game?

I mean in the sense that it's the current industry bogeyman. I don't ever recall companies railing about the existence of establishments like Funcoland back in the 90's.

Which is to say the problem is probably overblown, and probably amplified by the gaming media.

shoptroll wrote:
DSGamer wrote:

How old are you? (Not a sarcastic question, serious one). I'm in my late 30s and used video game sales have been around for 30 years. You never traded games with a friend? Let a friend borrow a game?

I mean in the sense that it's the current industry bogeyman. I don't ever recall companies railing about the existence of establishments like Funcoland back in the 90's.

Oh, got it. Sorry I didn't read that right. Yes, it's indeed in that camp.

The weird thing is that it, much like piracy was partially sanctioned long long ago, so was used game sales.

DSGamer wrote:

The weird thing is that it, much like piracy was partially sanctioned long long ago, so was used game sales.

Considering a lot of the crowing comes from the bigger publishers, I suspect it's mostly to do with the profit margins on whatever they're selling isn't keeping pace with growing expenses. Smaller publishers don't seem to be nearly as concerned, or just acknowledge there's not much they can do about it.

shoptroll wrote:

I mean in the sense that it's the current industry bogeyman. I don't ever recall companies railing about the existence of establishments like Funcoland back in the 90's.

You realize that the industry successfully made video game rentals illegal in Japan in the 80s?

It's not new.

Demyx wrote:

You realize that the industry successfully made video game rentals illegal in Japan in the 80s?

It's not new.

That's news to me.

shoptroll wrote:
Demyx wrote:

You realize that the industry successfully made video game rentals illegal in Japan in the 80s?

It's not new.

That's news to me.

I've heard of that. It was different in the US, though. In the US I remember mom and pop shops renting games almost immediately. There was a shop in my hometown in rural Idaho that would let you pay money to come into his story and spend an hour on a Genesis.

Back then they didn't care as much. You know why? Because you'd go home and talk your parents into buying you your own Genesis. That's what I don't get about going after your customers so hard. They want to give you money. They will literally give you BILLIONS en masse. Just treat them well.

The people who area actually going to pirate were never your customers.

The thing is with used games, I think the publishers have the tools already to mitigate it, it's just they're so tied to the big game on a disc. They could essentially go the shareware route by having a little slice for free and DLC for the rest. They could sell the base game trivially cheap and DLC it up. They could even have all the resources on the disc, and the only people who would moan are forum warriors, assuming you could get in for $10.

No need for a new box and no need for anything new, besides how they operate.

The only wrinkle I can see is whether the publishers want it all for themselves without paying so much to the platform holder. There were rumours that Activision wasn't happy with the XBL arrangement seeing as their game was doing a massive amount of business for them, so I wonder if next gen will see "Origin for XBox720" or "Battle.net for PS4".

I have to wonder with stuff like this how much it is seeded rumours to test the waters.

DSGamer wrote:

I've heard of that. It was different in the US, though. In the US I remember mom and pop shops renting games almost immediately. There was a shop in my hometown in rural Idaho that would let you pay money to come into his story and spend an hour on a Genesis. :)

A lot of the gas stations where I grew up would rent games in addition to the small mom and pop rental shops.

I know we're drifting off-topic again, but is there a lot of talk from the Japanese publishers/developers about used game sales?

DSGamer wrote:

I've heard of that. It was different in the US, though. In the US I remember mom and pop shops renting games almost immediately. There was a shop in my hometown in rural Idaho that would let you pay money to come into his story and spend an hour on a Genesis.

Back then they didn't care as much. You know why? Because you'd go home and talk your parents into buying you your own Genesis. That's what I don't get about going after your customers so hard. They want to give you money. They will literally give you BILLIONS en masse. Just treat them well.

The people who area actually going to pirate were never your customers.

I've always wondered is there isn't a certain hypocrisy in the industry complaining about used game sales when to me, it seems like the industry would be nowhere as big as it is without those used game sales. "future used game sales cut into our profits in the part of the market that wouldn't exist if not for...past used game sales?" wha?

Speedhuntr wrote:

Any predictions about the name? I mean...the more I say 720 the more I adjust to it but it's just so dumb! :P

Well, they'll be up against the PS4, and the WiiU, so...Xbox4U?

Spoiler:

I'm sorry.

DSGamer wrote:

I've heard of that. It was different in the US, though. In the US I remember mom and pop shops renting games almost immediately. There was a shop in my hometown in rural Idaho that would let you pay money to come into his story and spend an hour on a Genesis. :)

I recall my Grandparents renting a Nintendo system for the night once. It was sweet.

CheezePavilion wrote:

I've always wondered is there isn't a certain hypocrisy in the industry complaining about used game sales when to me, it seems like the industry would be nowhere as big as it is without those used game sales. "future used game sales cut into our profits in the part of the market that wouldn't exist if not for...past used game sales?" wha?

I think, like piracy, it's a grey area. Opinions are going to vary depending on where you're viewing the situation from. Different opinions can be right at the same time.

What gets me is when you get an extreme opinion, and it's someone major saying it. Even if it's wrong it's showing their position on issues and their motivations.

Minarchist wrote:
Blind_Evil wrote:

It depends how you define the bolded, which would be on a game-by-game basis. If it's too bare-bones you'll get too many people returning the game, complaining of it being incomplete. I'm struggling to think of good ways to toe that line right now, using existing franchises.

Probably something like you have to buy DLC in order to get the ending. I mean, Fallout 3 already did that...

IMAGE(http://forosdz.com/imgcache/61803.imgcache.jpg)

While the picture is accurate of your statement, I can't help but think that it's moderately unfair to Bethesda. Afterall, FO3 did have an ending, and it was totally in line with their canon and direction.

That said, they totally charged $10 for the better ending, or something closer to the better ending, which people wanted all along anyway.

This post got too involved for me, so I skimmed to the end just to say "No sir, I don't like it".

Mostly that I don't like a new console generation already. I can see the advantages of the Wii-U, as in some ways that is catching up. A new Xbox or PS3? Jesus, can't you at least let development costs catch up before you blow them out of proportion again?

As for the Used Games thing, I have mixed feelings on that matter. On one hand, I hate GameStop and how violently savage they are about it (I bought Gears of War 3 day one and they included a flyer to trade the game in. How the Hell must a developer that worked long hours on that game feel about that?). I also like it when developers make money. I also hate that if I go to GameStop to buy the last new copy of a game, it's got stickers and store grime all over the case and feels like I may as well have bought Used.

But on the other hand, some people wouldn't buy used if that were the only option (there are so many games that aren't even a year old and are a bitch and two thirds to find new, let alone ones that are two, three, four or even five years old). In addition, trying to block out all used game sales, which includes friends lending copies to their friends, is one of the dumbest ideas I've ever heard.

I hope it's true, just so the next Xbox can fail and this generation can keep going.

Parallax Abstraction wrote:
PaladinTom wrote:

There's no way Microsoft would weather the hate if they built in some form of system to block the use of used games.

Regardless of the technical means to pull such a scheme off, this is basically my opinion. If Microsoft implemented a system like this to block used sales (and let's not forget rentals which is how I get about half my console games these days), all Sony has to do to win the next generation is not implement their own similar system. That's it, generation won. Regardless of how the PS4 will be technically inferior or superior to the next Xbox, if Sony says "You can resell, rent or lend games on our system but you can't on Microsoft's", I'm willing to bet most of the Xbox fan base suddenly buys PS4s instead.

But Developers and Publishers would love it... I think Gamers go where the best experience ends up being.. I think for the most part they are platform agnostic. The Xbox 360 had the best online and multiplayer experience this round.

edit

Not that I believe for a second MS is going to implement that feature.. I think natural evolution will solve the whole "used game" thing for everyone who hates it. No real need for anyone to rock the boat anymore than they are already. Digital Downloads is all everyone needs to "fix" the used game market.

SpacePPoliceman wrote:
DSGamer wrote:

I've heard of that. It was different in the US, though. In the US I remember mom and pop shops renting games almost immediately. There was a shop in my hometown in rural Idaho that would let you pay money to come into his story and spend an hour on a Genesis. :)

I recall my Grandparents renting a Nintendo system for the night once. It was sweet.

What you're refering to (renting a game or console that you can take home) is not what DSGamer is talking about, if I understand him correctly. What DSG is describing is very similar to the small business that I founded and ran mostly by myself from mid-2005 until I shut it down in late 2006 here in the town (suburb of a metropolis) that I've lived in since 1998. I had 12 CRT TVs (32") with Xbox (original or 360) connected to 10 of them and PS2 connected to 2 of them. Every console was internet-connected via a network switch and lots of cat5e cables. I had a good selection of new and/or popular games (on disc of course) and charged people either a per-hour rate or an all-day flat rate to play as many games as they wanted. For obvious reasons, that business model isn't feasible these days. I kind of got into that "market" right at the end of its, uhh ... feasibility.

Back to the topic:

I agree with MannishBoy in that this next generation will be a small, but significant transition toward a digital-only video game market, not necessarily at the beginning, but I see it happening over the course of this upcoming 7-10 year generation. Then the following generation (starting between 2020-2025) will likely be all digital.

Unless technologies like OnLive and Gaikai have taken over by then.

That's funny, Meatman. Definitely poor timing.

The store we went to wasn't even that nice. This was at the start of the Genesis and it was like a video / video game rental store. And the guy basically setup a chair, a TV and a single Genesis and we paid to play it until we saved for our own.

MeatMan wrote:

What you're refering to (renting a game or console that you can take home) is not what DSGamer is talking about, if I understand him correctly...I kind of got into that "market" right at the end of its, uhh ... feasibility.

I'm aware, just saying, there was a time when you could rent consoles as well as games.

You mention the market lost feasibility. I haven't been by in a while, but there's a hobby store in my town that was set up with PCs you could play I assume by the hour, that was always packed to the gills with kids. Maybe I should check up on it.

Oh yeah, the next generation. I'll get into new machines when there's a game I desperately want to play for them.

SpacePPoliceman wrote:

Oh yeah, the next generation. I'll get into new machines when there's a game I desperately want to play for them.

That's kind of it. Great launch titles are pretty much the exceptions, and if you don't see anything critical, you can wait 6 months or so before jumping in.

I for one welcome MS's attempts to become the console Steam, provided they guarantee that the games are yours "forever" and that each generation will maintain backwards compatibility. I know each generation of consoles hasn't done that so far, but it seems like that should be doable.

One interesting angle on going "disc-less": Doesn't MS, who lusts after total livingroom domination, need to keep giving people a DVD drive for as long as people keep watching DVDs? Or are they willing to cede that area, even as they try to provide live sports and even full DVR access?

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/30/re...

The marketing director of Microsoft France has said the 360 still has some life left in its hard drive, and Microsoft won't be unveiling anything new this year. "Xbox 360′s cycle is not at all finished. The proof is that we don't see the logic in cutting the price this year," Cedrick Delmax said in a French-language interview with Le Point, according to Develop. "E3 is still premature. What's certain is that there'll be nothing new in 2012."
Fedaykin98 wrote:

I for one welcome MS's attempts to become the console Steam, provided they guarantee that the games are yours "forever" and that each generation will maintain backwards compatibility. I know each generation of consoles hasn't done that so far, but it seems like that should be doable.

One interesting angle on going "disc-less": Doesn't MS, who lusts after total livingroom domination, need to keep giving people a DVD drive for as long as people keep watching DVDs? Or are they willing to cede that area, even as they try to provide live sports and even full DVR access?

Speaking of wishes and Steamishness, wouldn't it be nice in this fairytale world that if you bought a download Xbox game, that it would also be a license for a PC/Windows 8 version? That would make future compatibility possibilities much higher.

Lots of technical and contractual reasons that's probably not happening, but it would be a huge competitive advantage vs the PS4. Or push the PS4 to really give their marketplace management over to Steam in a deal like Portal 2.

Shoot, that makes too much common and business sense to ever happen in the real world! But I'd love it!

And seriously, I often wonder why the captains of industry don't just find out what their customers want, and give it to them. Now, some do. Pretty much the entire entertainment industry seems to get it backwards, trying to force feed customers stuff that their executives would like.

Fedaykin98 wrote:

Shoot, that makes too much common and business sense to ever happen in the real world! But I'd love it!

And seriously, I often wonder why the captains of industry don't just find out what their customers want, and give it to them. Now, some do. Pretty much the entire entertainment industry seems to get it backwards, trying to force feed customers stuff that their executives would like.

If you think about it, MS already did this with the retro arcade stuff. You could pay slightly more for one of the ROMs and get a Windows and Xbox version IIRC.

MeatMan wrote:

I agree with MannishBoy in that this next generation will be a small, but significant transition toward a digital-only video game market, not necessarily at the beginning, but I see it happening over the course of this upcoming 7-10 year generation. Then the following generation (starting between 2020-2025) will likely be all digital.

I was going to say that 2020-2025 seemed like an extremely conservative estimate, but then I realized: holy sh*t, this is 2012! So yeah, it's not that far off.

The online user base definitely exists for a download-only console in the next generation, but I can't see them springing it on customers this quickly. Hell, I would LOVE if the next console was download-only, but it ain't gonna happen. I definitely think the marketing strategy of the nextbox will be to continue the transition of users to a download-heavy environment, though, so they'll be ready for the next-next-gen console a few years down the road.

cyrax wrote:

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/30/re...

The marketing director of Microsoft France has said the 360 still has some life left in its hard drive, and Microsoft won't be unveiling anything new this year. "Xbox 360′s cycle is not at all finished. The proof is that we don't see the logic in cutting the price this year," Cedrick Delmax said in a French-language interview with Le Point, according to Develop. "E3 is still premature. What's certain is that there'll be nothing new in 2012."

This would fall in line with what Michael Pachter said during a CES '12 round-table from Tested.com.

He was pretty adamant that he had spoken directly with top-tier MS execs that he has known for years who told him that Xbox Next would NOT be revealed at this year's E3. He went on to say that there was no reason these guys would mislead him as they've been trusted sources of info that have build a relationship of honesty with him for a long, long time.

Pretty depressing if true. At this point I don't think anyone is expecting Xbox 3 to launch this year, but most seem to think an important marketing strategy would be to at least get some info out there during E3 '12 to steal some Wii U thunder and perhaps get people antsy for next-gen to start to hold out until 2013.

MannishBoy wrote:
Fedaykin98 wrote:

Shoot, that makes too much common and business sense to ever happen in the real world! But I'd love it!

And seriously, I often wonder why the captains of industry don't just find out what their customers want, and give it to them. Now, some do. Pretty much the entire entertainment industry seems to get it backwards, trying to force feed customers stuff that their executives would like.

If you think about it, MS already did this with the retro arcade stuff. You could pay slightly more for one of the ROMs and get a Windows and Xbox version IIRC.

I did not know that!

Fedaykin98 wrote:
MannishBoy wrote:
Fedaykin98 wrote:

Shoot, that makes too much common and business sense to ever happen in the real world! But I'd love it!

And seriously, I often wonder why the captains of industry don't just find out what their customers want, and give it to them. Now, some do. Pretty much the entire entertainment industry seems to get it backwards, trying to force feed customers stuff that their executives would like.

If you think about it, MS already did this with the retro arcade stuff. You could pay slightly more for one of the ROMs and get a Windows and Xbox version IIRC.

I did not know that!

Yeah, it was Game Room. Couldn't remember the name.

ruhk wrote:

Hell, I would LOVE if the next console was download-only, but it ain't gonna happen. I definitely think the marketing strategy of the nextbox will be to continue the transition of users to a download-heavy environment, though, so they'll be ready for the next-next-gen console a few years down the road.

I wonder if Microsoft would consider having two versions of the Xbox: one that plays discs and a cheaper one that's download only. Retail stores could then sell both discs and code cards. Admittedly that seems like a stretch, but there were two versions of the 360 at launch...

ruhk wrote:

The online user base definitely exists for a download-only console in the next generation, but I can't see them springing it on customers this quickly. Hell, I would LOVE if the next console was download-only, but it ain't gonna happen. I definitely think the marketing strategy of the nextbox will be to continue the transition of users to a download-heavy environment, though, so they'll be ready for the next-next-gen console a few years down the road.

The online user base does exist, but the part keeping physical media in the game is the base that doesn't. Over 1/3 of Xbox 360s have never been online. 33%! That number for Wii is higher. I haven't seen figures for PS3, but I'd guess they're similar. Until you see 95% of a generation's consoles heading online, it's not going to happen. Too many possible software sales to risk alienation. The more I think about it, the more I think that's not til after 2030 (which may indeed be only two generations up, seeing how long this one is taking).

philucifer wrote:

I wonder if Microsoft would consider having two versions of the Xbox: one that plays discs and a cheaper one that's download only. Retail stores could then sell both discs and code cards. Admittedly that seems like a stretch, but there were two versions of the 360 at launch...

That came up earlier in the thread, and it's a possibility, but I doubt it would be cheaper.