NFL 2012 Week 11 Thread

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No time for thoughts, just pick'ems.

Pick 'Ems

Buccaneers at Panthers: Tampa keeps making the picks because they seem to consistently produce one of the tightest point spreads each week. This week, they are far and away the narrowest spread, as 1.5 point favorites at home over the Panthers. Seems kind of low for a team on a 3-game winning streak, and one that has won 4 out of 5 since their bye. The 2-7 Panthers, meanwhile, have not been able to get their talent fully on track. Cam Newton has struggled to produce, so much so that Enix hasn't been able to make a Gabbert crack since the start of the season. I don't think the Panther roster is 2-7 bad, but that's where they're at right now. Can't see picking against the Buccaneers here, regardless of how close the handicappers see it.

Ravens at Steelers: This is where Byron Leftwich re-jumpstarts his career! OK, that might be a tad optimistic. I am very interested to see what kind of offense Pittsburgh runs with Leftwich in. When he came in for Roethlisberger last week, the team seemed reluctant to do much, but Leftwich seemed most at home when they did open it up and he could wind up and rifle downfield. He does one thing and he does it well, and the Steelers might be wise to let him wing it downfield to Mike Wallace rather than try to grind the game out on the ground with their sub-par running backs. The Ravens and Ray Rice will win a battle of the ground games. I think Pittsburgh's best chance is to be more aggressive than anyone expects. I don't expect that they will, though, and even if they do, it'd be a tough call to not pick the Ravens.

Packers at Lions: At 4-5, the Lions are not out of it, but their playoff hopes are quickly reaching the point of needing life support. Green Bay at 6-3 has not quite been the powerful team they hoped, but they are still hot on the heels of the Bears in the NFC North. Stafford will not have to worry about Clay Matthews, who will miss the game, making things more interesting. Calvin Johnson's knee didn't seem to slow him down last week, as he eclipsed 200 yards and finally scored on a Stafford-thrown ball. After a slow start to the season (in which, in retrospect, the team started against 3 top defenses), the Packer offense has been rolling, averaging just over 30 points per game. The upset factor is high here, but after the way the Lions defense failed to contain the Vikings last week, I can't see them sufficiently slowing down the Packers.

Bears at 49ers: The two best defenses in football, points-wise, square off on Monday Night, while their starting quarterbacks nurse concussions. Jay Cutler is doubtful to play, meaning there's a good chance it will be Jason Campbell tasked with trying to score on the 49er defense. Alex Smith, however, is said to be likely to play, which sadly means that it is still not yet Kaepernick Time, despite his efficient passing and dangerous running in Smith's absence last week. Regardless of who plays QB on either team, I am taking the 49ers, who should be able to get the job done, so long as they don't let Chicago's defense do some scoring.

And the bonus...
Jaguars at Texans: On the one hand, it's the team with the NFL's best record against the team tied for the NFL's worst. On the other hand, I'll be there at Reliant Stadium cheering the Jaguars on. Bolstered by having a fan in the stands, the Jaguars shock the Texans in a post-Sunday Night letdown game.

Last week's results:
fangblackbone: 5-0
Gumbie: 5-0
TheGameguru: 5-0

bighoppa: 4-1
Certis: 4-1 (it's OK, this was just to balance out the one week where it was 2)
McFinn: 4-1
oldmanscene24: 4-1

Elliottx: 3-2
Fedaykin98: 3-2
iaintgotnopants: 3-2
kaostheory: 3-2
karmajay: 3-2
Kush15: 3-2
MilkmanDanimal: 3-2
sheared: 3-2
sr_malo: 3-2
thejustinbot: 3-2
ukickmydog: 3-2

*Legion*: 2-3
AnimeJ: 2-3
boogle: 2-3
Jasonofindy: 2-3
Jayhawker: 2-3
lostlobster: 2-3
peedmyself: 2-3
TempestBlayze: 2-3
Xeknos: 2-3
ODDSMAKERS: 2-3

billt721: 1-4
LeapingGnome: 1-4
mudbunny: 1-4
Stele: 1-4
tboon: 1-4
Zaque: 1-4

Atras: 0-5
Enix: 0-5
garion333: 0-5
Jolly Bill: 0-5

Season to date:

sheared: 34-14
Jayhawker: 34-14

TheGameguru: 32-16

Xeknos: 31-17

Certis: 30-18
McFinn: 30-18
Kush15: 30-18
*Legion*: 30-18 (now tied with Certis? f**k)

Gumbie: 29-19
kaostheory: 29-19
karmajay: 29-19
Jasonofindy: 29-19
ODDSMAKERS: 29-19

bighoppa: 28-20
LeapingGnome: 28-20

Elliottx: 27-21
MilkmanDanimal: 27-21
thejustinbot: 27-21
Stele: 27-21

fangblackbone: 26-22
oldmanscene24: 26-22
Fedaykin98: 26-22
AnimeJ: 26-22
lostlobster: 26-22
tboon: 26-22

iaintgotnopants: 25-23

ukickmydog: 24-24
peedmyself: 24-24

Zaque: 23-25

Atras: 21-27

boogle: 20-28
garion333: 20-28

TempestBlayze: 19-29
mudbunny: 19-29
Enix: 19-29
Jolly Bill: 19-29

billt721: 18-30

sr_malo: 17-31

Wheels finally came off. Been ahead or even with oddsmakers all year.

Panthers at Buccaneers
Ravens at Steelers
Packers at Lions
Bears at 49ers
Jaguars at Texans

Panthers at Buccaneers: I actually think I should go Panthers here; Tampa should win this game, but they're also the kind of team that is absolutely going to lose one or two games that they should win. Tampa's secondary is brutal, and Steve Smith has traditionally just murdered them even when the secondary was decent. That being said, it's not like Carolina's secondary is hitting it out of the park. This will be another game where the Bucs score 35 and that might not be enough. Also, the Enix line was pure gold. GOLD.

Ravens at Steelers: Ravens just lost Jimmy Smith to IR, so they're really short on corners. If Leftwich were to throw the ball more than about five feet, that might be a concern.

Packers at Lions: Yeah, if Christian Ponder can throw on you, I'm going to guess that Aaron Rodgers just might be able to throw on you. A little. Like for four or five TDs.

Bears at 49ers: If there was a fantasy football league where throwing two-yard passes gave you bonus points, Jason Campbell would be a first-round pick. Doesn't throw many picks and has good accuracy, mainly because he can check it down like nobody's business. Go Jason! You and Leftwich are in a contest to see who can break five yards/attempt this week!

Jaguars at Houston: Um . . . uh . . . does somebody have significant post-concussion syndrome from banging their head on the coffee table too often after yet more Gabberting?

Oooooh, "Gabberting". I have to start using that.

Panthers at Buccaneers
Ravens at Steelers
Packers at Lions
Bears at 49ers
Jaguars at Texans

Bucs
Ravens
Packers
49ers
Texans

Panthers at Buccaneers
Ravens at Steelers
Packers at Lions
Bears at 49ers
Jaguars at Texans

Buccaneers at Panthers - I was about to say that line would make sense for if Carolina were at home, then enix goes and says that they are indeed at home. Still can't pick them though...
Ravens at Steelers - I still don't think Ravens are that good, and Pitt will find a way to win at home.
Packers at Lions - GB > Det, by a lot.
Bears at 49ers - Jason Campbell, ha, though I actually did pick the Bears in another pickem I do that uses the spread (5 pts) since Alex Smith is bound to throw one or two pick 6s and it should be low scoring.
Jaguars at Texans - Nice of you to take one for the team Legion.

Props to Legion going with the Jags on the road...some times you just gotta believe

Buccaneers
Ravens
Packers
Bears
Texans

Houston Texans, baby! Awesome, slugfest win against da Bears last week! The team has a bye this week, and then plays Detroit on Thanksgiving. Yee haw!

Panthers
Ravens
Packers
49ers
Texans

While the Texans-Jags game will be played post-Monday, in the sense of six days later, the Texans played the Bears on SUNDAY Night Football.

Btw I live 9 minutes from the stadium.

Panthers at Buccaneers - I like this Bucs team. The offense is fun to watch.
Ravens at Steelers - Leftwitch is horrible. I hate QBs that only know how to throw checkdowns.
Packers at Lions - This will be a fun game to watch. I'm hoping Packers jump out in front and make the Lions throw.
Bears at 49ers - Campbell is horrible. I hate QBs that only know how to throw checkdowns.
Jaguars at Texans -What would be the scenario for the Jags to win? Foster and Schuab get into a car crash where they both run into JJ Watt? It will be fun to see how Gabbert does with the pass rush, does he sink or swim?

*Legion* wrote:

Panthers at Buccaneers: Tampa rocks, Carolina sucks, Newton sucks, Gabbert RAWKS, blah blah blah ...

A quick correction: Game is in Charlotte. The Panthers embarrassed themselves at Raymond James in Week 1.

A pick: PANTHERS

I'm probably wrong but don't want to miss out if I'm not.

Is Gabbert still in the league? Does JAX still have a franchise?

ukickmydog wrote:

Buccaneers at Panthers - I was about to say that line would make sense for if Carolina were at home, then enix goes and says that they are indeed at home. Still can't pick them though...

I'll forgive you.

Bonus Panthers mockery via TheAwl.com:

Cam Newton is great
at pretending to be Superman
but bad at throwing.

MMD wrote:

This will be another game where the Bucs score 35 and that might not be enough. Also, the Enix line was pure gold. GOLD.

Gold?! More like copper. Maybe tarnished bronze.

And you think the Bucs will score 35 in Charlotte? Did I miss the Bucs' trade for Peyton Manning?

Elliottx wrote:

It will be fun to see how Gabbert does with the pass rush, does he sink or swim?

Sink or swim

Buccaneers
Ravens
Packers
Bears
Texans

Enix wrote:

And you think the Bucs will score 35 in Charlotte? Did I miss the Bucs' trade for Peyton Manning?

You do realize Josh Freeman is leading the league in yards/attempt, right? The Bucs are averaging more than 28 a game the last five weeks, Vincent Jackson leads the league in yards/catch and has IIRC the most 20+ yard reception (Mike Williams is 3rd, I believe) . . . Tampa right now has the most exciting offense in the league. Unfortunately, it is paired with the worst secondary in the league, which keeps things close.

The stench of Raheem is gone. This is a legitimately explosive offense. If teams can get a pass rush, Freeman has a frustrating tendency to throw off his back foot when you get in his face, but, if you don't get a pass rush, he's going deep (and he throws one of the best deep balls in the league).

Edit: Oops, sorry. Not 28 per game; more than 35 a game the last five weeks.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

You do realize ...

You failed to mention that two of TB's games since the bye week came against the Raiders and the Saints, who can't stop anybody. (Except the Bucs, as it turns out. )

No doubt that Freeman is a ton better than he was last year. But don't sell the Panthers D short -- it's surprisingly not awful, considering the loss of Beason and Gamble. Last Sunday against Denver was the first time the Panthers D had given up 20+ points since September.

That said, I expect Cam and the Panthers' special teams to giftwrap the game for the Bucs.

Bucs lose this week if they have a mental fart...

They have shown us much much more then Carolina this year.

Shows how quickly a team can potentially turn it around. Martin + Jackson BAM! Can't really comment on the coaching difference as I'm not that aware of how they play.

Martin makes me real jealous. Even if he slows down considerably the Packers are dying for a guy with his sexyness at RB. To think what Rodgers can do pretty much with a C+ at [email protected]#%@#%@#$

Bucs
Ravens
Packers
49ers
Texans

Panthers at Buccaneers
Ravens at Steelers
Packers at Lions
Bears at 49ers
Jaguars at Texans

Steelers: I mean, damn. It's like they're trying to see how difficult they can make it on themselves. I pick 'em because they're my team, and because they usually play the Ravens close (except for week 1 last year).

Lions: Tough call, but I think it means more to them than the Packers to win this week.

Enix wrote:

A quick correction: Game is in Charlotte. The Panthers embarrassed themselves at Raymond James in Week 1.

Thanks. Fixed.

Is Gabbert still in the league?

Yep, and completing passes at a better percentage than Cam Newton.

garion333: 0-5

...Another funeral. Fun times.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Panthers at home, I guess.

Ravens at Steelers: Ravens better win this.

Packers at Lions: Oh, why not? Lions.

Bears at 49ers: Kaepernick will be in after Alex Smith faints at the first sign of pressure. 49ers.

Jaguars at Texans. Bwahahaahahaaahaahaa! Texans.

Fedaykin98 wrote:

While the Texans-Jags game will be played post-Monday, in the sense of six days later, the Texans played the Bears on SUNDAY Night Football.

Of course, that's totally what I said. Go look again.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

A quick correction: Game is in Charlotte. The Panthers embarrassed themselves at Raymond James in Week 1.

Thanks. Fixed.

Is Gabbert still in the league?

Yep, and completing passes at a better percentage than Cam Newton. :D

WHAT A BATTLE IT IS.

RK PLAYER TEAM COMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RATE YDS/G
27 Cam Newton, QB CAR 155 271 57.2 2,143 7.91 82 8 10 24 77.2 238
28 Blaine Gabbert, QB JAC 160 276 58.0 1,638 5.94 80 9 6 21 76.9 182

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

A quick correction: Game is in Charlotte. The Panthers embarrassed themselves at Raymond James in Week 1.

Thanks. Fixed.

Is Gabbert still in the league?

Yep, and completing passes at a better percentage than Cam Newton. :D

WHAT A BATTLE IT IS.

RK PLAYER TEAM COMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RATE YDS/G
27 Cam Newton, QB CAR 155 271 57.2 2,143 7.91 82 8 10 24 77.2 238
28 Blaine Gabbert, QB JAC 160 276 58.0 1,638 5.94 80 9 6 21 76.9 182

One of these two will step up big late in the season and ascend to the 25th rated QB.

Both still are rated higher than Freeman was last year, so shaddup.

*Legion* wrote:

Both still are rated higher than Freeman was last year, so shaddup. :P

*snicker*

Buccaneers at Panthers

Ravens at Steelers

Packers at Lions

Bears at 49ers

Jaguars at Texans

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Both still are rated higher than Freeman was last year, so shaddup. :P

*snicker*

I said at the start of the year, 2011 did not exist. No team in NFL history has given up on a season like the 2011 Bucs. Freeman was one of the only people trying, and he threw a load of picks on desperation catch-up type passes. I WILL DEFEND MY FREEMANCRUSH.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I said at the start of the year, 2011 did not exist. ...

While we're ditching entire NFL seasons, I propose doing away with 2010. That was a miserable season for the Panthers, especially because of Blaine Gabbert Jimmy Clausen under center.

See what I did there?

Enix wrote:

especially because of Blaine Gabbert Jimmy Clausen under center.

Hey! You will not start that crap again, especially when your guy is JaMarcus'ing it up with 17 turnovers.

Gabbert led the league in fumbles last year - but Newton is on pace this year to beat that mark.

Spoiler:

Still better than 2011 Freeman.

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