Endgame in Syria

Alright, that's probably jumping the gun, but most reports i've seen say the fighting in Aleppo may largely decide the conflict.

The View From Al-Jazeera.

Foreign Policy on Al-Jazeera and Syria.

It'll be the endgame of this phase when they pull Assad's body out of the ruins wherever he chooses to make his last stand. Then the nastiness will *really* begin.

Well, maybe Lebanon will finally be independent afterwards.

It will end with Assad using chemical weapons against his own people. If the rebels manage kill Assad first they might lower the death toll on the Rebel side but the Alawi people might be massacred as revenge. Without Assad in power someone might take the initiative with the unconventional arsenal so killing Assad may not prevent their use.

I seriously doubt Lebanon would be independent . Maybe it would be an independent country controlled by Hezbollah . Iran and Syria got their hand deep into Lebanon. One less hand will leave more room for the other. If the Syrian arsenal (rockets,chemical/biological weapons) move to Lebanon it would start another war .In Israel we don't talk about what would happen "if" another war starts we are talking about "when".

The Middle East is still very unstable and replacing dictators won't really change anything. Only education for peace can help stop the violence. As far as I know most Arabs countries and entities teach their children to hate Israel so the clashes won't end in the near future.

Leaving aside the issue of deserved versus undeserved hatred, I'm pretty sure Israel and all its citizens could disappear right now and the middle east would still be a powder keg five, ten or fifteen years in the future.

I guess it's true Israel isn't really a problem to its neighbors except for Jordan which lacks Fresh water but are getting some from Israel . My guess it that all the revolution started due to high unemployment in quiet a few Arab nations . When people don't get their basic needs they tend to riot . The revolution isn't only about freedom. People can be perfectly free and starve to death.

Syria invested heavily in its military and that money had to come from somewhere. Their literacy is still fairly decent compared to Egypt. The kids there still had to say on oath of allegiance to the dictator every day. Due to the fact they are practically a totalitarian regime their text books may contain half truths and lies. It's not exactly the best education. The crazy regime also lead the country into economic isolation for long periods of times. The article about Syria's economy in wikipedia say they have a growing unemployment . The current revolution might end soon but the results would probably worst than the other ones.

I generally don't follow the Syrian mess on the news . I tend to read the less graphic articles . The Syrian mess doesn't really affect us except for things that spill over. I think yesterday a Syrian got shot when trying to cross the Israeli border. We are generally more concerned about our safety but the loss of life in Syria is regrettable. It's rather unfortunate we can't stop it even though we are on the same neighborhood and probably have the means . The only Syrian neighbor which is likely to act is Turkey but I think they prefer to sit on the fence and watch much like us.

Niseg wrote:

The Middle East is still very unstable and replacing dictators won't really change anything. Only education for peace can help stop the violence.

I don't think Israel is exempt from the need for education for peace, but I otherwise agree with you.

Farscry wrote:
Niseg wrote:

The Middle East is still very unstable and replacing dictators won't really change anything. Only education for peace can help stop the violence.

I don't think Israel is exempt from the need for education for peace, but I otherwise agree with you.

It's true that Israel is leaning right and kids also get affected. There is a large population which get bombarded on and off and that does effect their opinion on peace.

The problem with education systems in general is that the government entities dictates the material being thought. The media which can also be government control can also affect the perception of the people who watch . In totalitarian regimes like most Arab nations in the Middle East the government uses the education system and media to keep people loyal. One of the major tool is the idea of a "common enemy" . The regime twists the facts in order to control what their people know about the world. The regime usually controls books and internet access to keep people from getting information from the rest of the world.

In Israel there are very little restrictions in access to information. There is always the military censorship but they are fairly permissive and if the information leak to the world media they don't try to block it. The education system is generally one for tolerance and segregation usually get the public very angry. Israel is a country which is composed of many ethnic groups and it would be a lie to say there are no racial tensions. There is also a requirement to volunteer 60 hours in order to get a "highschool diploma" . The military service can be replaced with service to the community. This is a path that some Arab citizen go through instead of getting an automatic exception from military service.

Our media generally try to get all sides of the story. Even Galatz which is an IDF radio station call Hamas politicians from time to time ( I usually change station when that happens - I'm a little less open than the media ) . Our media is relatively free and if someone break censorship laws they usually don't go to jail. Censorship is generally only done for national security issues and when the courts can also order the media not to publish information related to an ongoing criminal investigation or the identity of suspects and/or victims of a crime.

Hopefully the Arab citizens will soon have unregulated access to the world media and internet so they can get a more global perspective on their everyday lives. It's not true that the Arab or Muslim world isn't interested in other perspective. We might be worried about the government interfering in the content on the internet if they thing they break some kind of law. In most Islamic countries and other totalitarian regimes the government has full control on what people can or can't access .

The Syrians may get rid of Assad but they may not get freedom . The liberals and christian in Egypt are really worried about the Islamic brotherhood getting elected . A majority rule doesn't always mean freedom. Iran had a revolution that got rid of one dictator and replaced him with a theocracy that put a strangle hold on civil rights.