2012/13 Soccer Thread

davet010 wrote:
But the Glazers have allowed SAF to spend at least £60m in each of the last few years, not all of whom have been successful by any means. What they haven't done is paid £30m for older, established players - I'm thinking the last one was Berbatov. Whether this is because Ferguson is trying to alter the club, or because they aren't paying the sort of wages that these players would want, is the question.

I don't think that clubs like Porto just rely on a conveyor belt of selling talent - they regularly get to the knockout stages of the CL, which shoves a fair chunk of change into their pockets.

As for Arsenal, I'm not sure where they are going. They aren't exactly selling 'home-grown' talent (the last player they sold who actually came through the ranks at Arsenal was Ashley Cole), they are essentially selling players who have developed their skills there. And it isn't like they aren't spending money - they've already spent more this summer than they will generate from selling RvP, if that does go ahead. What they are doing is buying a fair number of what might be considered 'good' players, who aren't going to require smashing the wage structure, but won't necessarily excite the fans or win you a title in a close race. Plus I'm guessing the flats cash has now run out.
.

60 million in todays market' with all the player inflations (largely thanks to financially super powered clubs in particular like City, Chelsea, and Real Madrid), will get you nothing. For the last three years the market has been a complete mess (it's always been, but even more so than the usual). Sure, now that City finally won a proper title and established itself as a real project that isn't a joke, it seems they're looking to transition hard out of the 'pour money in it til it works' approach, but that still leaves the rest doing what they've always done for the last decade or more.

Since around the time United sold off Ronaldo, we've sorely needed a major overhaul across the board for a while now (and now especially so as Giggs and Scholes finally start to reach the end of their defiance of age).

You look at all of our previous acquisitions for the last 5 years or so, they're mostly all clearly United shopping in the 'bargain' bin for players that are just 'good enough' or 'may show potential' or 'fit the englishmen quota' or Fergie just making mistakes (Bebe). Very few are actual proper spendings above 20 mil (I can only think of Berba, and he was never a 'game changer'), and really let's not kid ourselves, real star acquisition this day and age that are of a desirable age and footballing experience/quality are at the very least 30 mil, barring super lucky acquisitions. And that isn't to mention, player's wage expectations are wayyyy out of control now too (I believe that has always been one of the biggest cockblocks for our long-running campaign for Sneijder).

Every summer United starts out needing 3-4 beefy acquisitions, with one or two of those needing to be of that true star quality player, but United always winds up making 'in-the-budget' or 'for the future' acquisitions. And that's a good way to deal with the fact that you simply can't operate like a 100-mil-a-summer club anymore or for the foreseeable future. Especially considering we still have quality left in the club to keep things ticking along in players like Rooney, Valencia, Nani (?), Vidic, Evra, Giggs, and Scholes. But really, all of this is winding down to an eventual slow crawl towards where Arsenal are at right now. A selling club, that nourishes its players with top-4 premier-league and champions-league experience for clubs of better standings.

You HATE giving Ferguson an ounce of credit, but if it wasn't for him, the club would have imploded more or less within a year or two under any other manager as long as the Glazers are involved.

And as for the Glazers actually having somethign to do with this. Year in and out United is constantly fighting for number one in profits/turnovers with Real Madrid (often winning I might add). Yet you look at the way Real spends in the transfer markets and player wages, and the way United operates, there is this huge gulf. I wonder why the f*ck that is. With so much money kicking around the club, the club still manages to shake in fear like it saw death itself whenever it runs into a figure above 30 million. Really?

davet010 wrote:
Pikey26 wrote:
Fair points

I would note, however, that City 'only' spent about £60-odd million last summer, and we didn't have a squad that had just won the Premiership. Anyways, it looks like Fergie has battered the lock off the War Hamper, as United seem to be hot favourites for the signatures of Leighton Baines and some Brazilian chap (Lucas Moura, £25m or so).

At least City got rid of one piece of Hughes' deadwood, sending Adebayor off to Spurs. His level of commitment and interest should now sink back to normal (ie, putting in a shift every 3rd game or so). Just a few more of these idiots to go.

Naw our Leighton Baines chase has cooled down a LOT very fast and looks more or less dead now (Everton realllly does not want to sell it appears and seems to have talked Leighton out of the idae), and the Brazilian chap's club allegedly just turned down a bid from one of the Milans for over 30 mil, claiming a 80 something million release clause on the player.

IF United was a proper financial powerhouse it should be, we probably could have strong armed the Brazilian chap's club for 40 mil or so (he really does seem to be the deal for the future as well as right now as far as the midfield vacancies are concerned), but no. The target's club just turned down a deal for 30 mil, and United is probably now going to steer welllll clear of that like the player was riddled with STDs... like it has with every good midfielder prospect (which it sorely needs) EVERY summer.

This is what Rooney was probably on about when he was citing 'lack of amibition' as one of the factors when he was looking for a move away.

I don't know, but I got my raincoat handy now, cause it looks like it's going to be a loooonnng dark rainy and stormy period coming up ahead for United (especially once Ferguson calls it quits).

UCRC, in answer to your question about the SPL.

For most other clubs in the SPL, the visit of Rangers (or Celtic) is probably the only times that their grounds will be more than half full - just have a watch of any SPL game and have a look at the crowds. Let's take one club, say Aberdeen. If you exclude Celtic, then I would estimate that the number of away fans attending from Rangers exceeds the number of away fans in Aberdeen's 14 other home games.

Removing Rangers from that equation, and replacing them with Dunfermline, will mean other clubs losing (relatively) huge amounts of revenue which will not be replaceable from other sources. I'm also not sure when the TV contract for the SPL is up for renewal, but a league lacking the debatable charms of the Old Firm games will be much less attractive to TV companies and to advertisers. The bulk of SPL teams are tottering on the brink of administration anyway - it's not like any of them are making huge strides in Europe or anything.

Another thing that hurts them is that few of the SPL players are good enough for the Premiership any more - no one is paying big money for a Barry Ferguson nowadays, simply because those who have come in the last decade or so (Ferguson, McGeady et al) have usually flopped. This has become more obvious over the last few years, when 'top SPL strikers' like Kris Boyd ended up in the Championship and looked to be at the appropriate level - and the prices have reflected that.

UCRC wrote:
Zaque wrote:
I'm not sure UCRC, it depends what the various governing bodies do when 4+ teams enter administration at the same time. Especially if 2 or 3 of them are some of the "big" clubs in the country.

Of course if Dave's prediction is correct, Scotland will be a nice test bed.


My point is that it's precisely what won't happen. (Save for some freak accident.) Scottish example is a good one: Rangers sinking means very little to Celtic's budgetary considerations. Their only rival is gone now, so they can maybe limit their spending on new players a little (which is analogous to local economy slowing down). But I don't see a plausible scenario where crash-type situation could develop here. Dave, why would other teams go to administration this season?

jowner wrote:
UCRC is right but theres one thing that will make everyone dependable on each other that is dangerous. Building in crazy transfer fees into your expected revenue. Some liques and clubs already know that they are feeder teams to the larger leagues. For example its pretty clear Porto operates on flipping talent to the bigger teams. So far I'm assuming they keep the budget fairly under control because 1-2 dry years of not flipping their stars especially at silly prices would mean disaster if they spend like thats just expected money.

If that's true (which, as Dave points out, it's probably not and I agree), that's just a suicidal stupidity and would kill them in the long run, no matter where football economy goes
But in any case that's not really good example of kind of dependability that would bring the system down. There will always be a market for talented players from smaller leagues, it's not like this source of income will dry up one day. Transfer fees might take a downturn, but that's not a huge danger, that's just market correcting for the amount of extra money floating around. But hey, that's just healthy behaviour and there is no compounded risk of the sorts that we see in real economy. Kind of risk that sinks everyone in domino fashion.

Hey, I think I'm repeating myself. But it's Saturday morning, so it's a miracle that I can type properly anyway.

Well any club going into bankruptcy is suicidal stupidity IMO anyways.

My point is lets say next South American star costs Porto 15m+ instead of whatever they are bringing them over for and 4x the wages they could run into several problems recouping the cost they are used to let alone turning positive profits.

If the silly money dries up suddenly they could be stuck selling the guy at a loss and that would before whatever they have already sunk in wages. Even worse it could be a Adebeyaor situation where hes already on such high wages it becomes near impossible to move him. Thats also assuming the player isnt a bust.

This really isnt far stretched. After the top leagues I'm afraid to look up what the Dutch, Portuguese and even French league pull in for their domestic TV deals. Also Porto wasn't even in the CL last year. That alone going from steady CL money to back to UEFA must of been a revenue shock and forced them to dip into previous transfer profits assuming they were saved.

davet010 wrote:
just have a watch of any SPL game

Hey, that was totally uncalled for!

Thanks for the post, though. Enlightening.

I've been to games in every division in Scotland bar the third, and to a Cup game at a non-league ground...and I can say that the most lacking in atmosphere was Ibrox.

Actually I wonder if this could be simulated in FM12. I don't know the game well enough to see how they do revenues but I'd think they would have something that might be possible to mod to give some interesting data.

Well, I'm guessing that if you used the editor to move Rangers to div 3, the effect of the move on other clubs would impact on the attendances and it would simulate itself.

In other news, Inter have managed to antagonise their fan base even further by unveiling a new away strip...a RED one. If you thought Cardiff's fan base was annoyed by their colour swap, it's nothing on this. Let's hear what their ultras think of it....

It's an insult to our history, that colour belongs to another team," raged Inter's furious Ultras in an open letter to club chairman Massimo Moratti. "It's a real punch in the eye and another in the stomach that has left us breathless."

The overriding feeling of disgust at the red aberration amongst the 'The Curva Nord' means it is unlikely to ever be seen in the stands at San Siro. The Ultras have called on all supporters to boycott the new shirt and when they speak, the rest of the supporters would do well to listen.

"We urge fans not to buy this clothing and they certainly shouldn't come to the stadium wearing it," warned the Ultras. They didn't need to add "or else" at the end.

Thinking again about my SPL musings, I can understand now why Dundee Utd and their ilk are opposed to Rangers even coming into Div One - it's because they feel it gives them a chance to finish second (and hence, laughably, to get a place in the Preliminary stages of the CL) or even to have a thought of winning the SPL should Celtic have an off season. Maybe the amount of money they would receive from being knocked out by the runners-up in the Finnish league would offset the loss of attendance money.

davet010 wrote:
Thinking again about my SPL musings, I can understand now why Dundee Utd and their ilk are opposed to Rangers even coming into Div One - it's because they feel it gives them a chance to finish second (and hence, laughably, to get a place in the Preliminary stages of the CL) or even to have a thought of winning the SPL should Celtic have an off season. Maybe the amount of money they would receive from being knocked out by the runners-up in the Finnish league would offset the loss of attendance money.

In principle that's true, but I'm not sure any club actually think's that at likely. Celtic would need to have a diabolical season to let anyone else come close and most of the 'contenders' are themselves already in trouble. (Hearts are downsizing, Motherwell have announced no new signings despite Champions League because of the Rangers situation). It wouldn't surprise me if theres a different runner up every season until Rangers are back. I'm glad they're in Division 3 though (speaking as a fan), hopefully we can start to get on with it now, I'm fed up hearing one drama after another.

Not a great pre-season for me as a fan, Rangers down to Division 3 and RVP likely to leave Arsenal, so that's both of my teams winning nothing this year

Don't worry, at least you'll be in perfect company to whine about Arsenal here

I've just read that Mourinho is planning to thin his squad a little and let go some players that weren't playing in Real. One of them is Kaka, but I also heard that Nuri Sahin could be gone as well. It's a kind of story that I used to associate with FM - big club buying a very talented player, discovering that there is no place in the squad, selling in 12 months on a cheap. Sahin used to be playmaker and best midfielder for Borussia. At Real he played in four league games.

Second will currently be good enough to get into the CL qualifiers, Scamby - so eliminating Rangers from that race will be seen as a victory. I did read today though that it is estimated that 5 SPL clubs will go into administration this season. That assumes the season starts, as the various governing bodies argue among themselves whether to go with a 12 team SPL or leave it at 11.

Christ, another Arsenal fan. Can you take it in turns, rather than all piling in at once - RvP was apparently spotted in Hale (leafy Cheshire suburb, soccer player territory for yer Manchester based players) yesterday, house hunting. I don't particularly want him at City, unless we can get shut of Tevez to AC Milan and he's happy to play out on the left.

And more FIFA shenanigans - the bent gnome is now calling the 2006 WC award into question, with some sideswipes at the German FA.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/st...

Could this, possibly at all, be connected with the DFB President suggesting yesterday that he should be stepping aside ? Time for someone else (by which, and I'm reading between the lines, he was meaning 'someone totally untouched by scandal, like, say, Franz Beckenbauer..'). Surely not.

Just love Blatter's description of his totally above board response to the 'one time I was bribed'. Suppose you don't necessarily need to be taking brown envelopes when you arrange that all monies relating to a WC are exempt from the tax regimes of the country holding the WC and your son-in-law controls the official merchandising body.

davet010 wrote:
Second will currently be good enough to get into the CL qualifiers, Scamby - so eliminating Rangers from that race will be seen as a victory. I did read today though that it is estimated that 5 SPL clubs will go into administration this season. That assumes the season starts, as the various governing bodies argue among themselves whether to go with a 12 team SPL or leave it at 11.

Christ, another Arsenal fan. Can you take it in turns, rather than all piling in at once - RvP was apparently spotted in Hale (leafy Cheshire suburb, soccer player territory for yer Manchester based players) yesterday, house hunting. I don't particularly want him at City, unless we can get shut of Tevez to AC Milan and he's happy to play out on the left.

;)

True - I agree with the CL qualifer part, just don't see anyone else winning it outright. Still plenty of drama to come I think, as you said there's still 12 vs 11 in the SPL, if they go 12 there will be an inevitable debate/challenge about who the 12th is. There's also still the matter of the SFA deciding which punishment to apply to 'newco' Rangers and the legal battle about contracts of players leaving the newco.

I'm not feeling great about Arsenal this season at all so I think we might all have gone quiet by mid-season!

PS - Anyone know why my quotes don't work? I'm just pressing 'quote'!

You're still a coffee grinder, once you get some more posts in, then your quotes will work.

Arsenal will be fine. Problem is the new fine is not winning anything and finishing 3rd or 4th.

The fans of 88 other clubs would swap that for their realistic expectations. I know people who support Stockport County and Macclesfield who'd swap small body parts for that...even their own

See jowner that's the thing you have to look at it as winning a CL spot, the team just end up with money instead of silverware.

BTW, I never really understood how CL spots for the various counties were given out, other than it has something to do with how "competitive" the league is. My question is more, is there any chance that Scotland will loose CL spots do to Rangers going down because the league gets worse for it?

See below (and collect your PhD if you pass 'GO').

http://www.uefa.com/memberassociatio...

http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/...

With regard to your question about Scotland, for the 2012/13 season they are in 15th position as an association, so according to Annex IA in the pdf, that gets them both the champs and runners-up in the 3rd qualifying round.

The 15th place is from the 2010/11 coefficients (because the coefficients affect the season AFTER next). The 2011/12 coefficient table (top link) has them going down to 18th, which for the 2013/14 season means that only 1 Scottish team will go into the CL and the 2nd and 3rd teams will go to the Euro League. I reckon that the 12/13 coefficient will go down a lot more, because the 2007/08 year will fall off the 5 year history, and Scotland got a load of points that year for Rangers reaching the Euro League final.

Now, let's not always see the same hands....

davet010 wrote:
The fans of 88 other clubs would swap that for their realistic expectations.

Actually, I'm quite happy with how Arsenal have been doing. I'm as excited as ever for the new season to begin and Abou Diaby to start his annual look I'm coming back from injury show.

davet010 wrote:
And more FIFA shenanigans - the bent gnome is now calling the 2006 WC award into question, with some sideswipes at the German FA.

Well, it's a very obvious maneuver by Blatter.

That said, does anyone here have serious doubts about money changing hands when it comes to big decisions like this, be it soccer championships, Olympic Games, or F1 race tracks?

So is today the day Wenger convinces RvP to stay and it turns out to be Rooney Negotiations 2.0?

bigred wrote:
So is today the day Wenger convinces RvP to stay and it turns out to be Rooney Negotiations 2.0?

Maybe tomorrow :/

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns...

kinda related to our discussion about how United once operated vs now...

Can we go back to the days where United spend big and it busts

The frustrations of losing the title to Arsenal appeared to boil over at the end of the season as Ferguson launched an expletive-ridden tirade against journalists who had criticised his decision to splash out on Veron.

"He [Veron] is a f***ing great player... And you're all f***ing idiots," were his parting words from one press conference in May with Arsenal on the brink of the title, while he dismissed as ''total lies'' the Sunday newspaper report that alleged two United players angrily confronted Veron - "blaming his peripheral displays over the two games for their failure to reach the final" according to the Guardian's Daniel Taylor - after United were eliminated from the Champions League semi-finals by Bayer Leverkusen.

Worry not, jowner - BEBE is back !! DIY stores in Manchester have laid in extra stocks of methylated spirits in anticipation.

Would love to know where the £7m they paid for him ended up.

davet010 wrote:
Worry not, jowner - BEBE is back !! DIY stores in Manchester have laid in extra stocks of methylated spirits in anticipation.

Would love to know where the £7m they paid for him ended up.

In ma pants.

Not all of it, Alex...surely Carlos got his cut too ?

Meanwhile, Chelsea are about to spend another £25m on a Brazilian midfielder (Oscar). Their formation next summer should be interesting - they've now got 11 (ELEVEN) attacking midfielders, and have bought 3 this summer (Hazard, Marin, Oscar). That'll be interesting for FFP, then.

Well Spain did win the Euro's without a striker and only attacking midfielders for the most part.

Oh, so Chelsea need to hope that every game features

(a) lucky penalty shootouts
(b) teams not even trying to win against them
(c) big slices of luck against their second rate CBs

Sounds about right.

In order to prevent them playing 4-6-0, it is now also being reported that the only thing preventing Chelsea paying £35m for Ezequel Lavezzi from Napoli is his £150k wage demands.

It is also being reported that PSG are about to 'rescue' Kaka from his Real Madrid hell, once they get Modric out of his.

"But how are PSG able to buy such players in contradiction of FFP ?" I hear you ask. Is it..

(a) Because they are French ? - COULD BE
(b) Because they haven't tried to buy any Bayern players, or compete with Bayern on any transfers, so Rummenigge and Clown haven't whined like spanked little girls yet - MAYBE
(c) Because PSG are owned by the Qatari Sports Investment corp. Who number amongst their employees Michel Platini's son ? - SURELY NOT

Eee, Platini absorbed the teachings of Chairman Blatter well.

Latest rumors suggest RvP wants Juventus. Even if you win seria a, do you really win anything?