2012 Predictions/2011 point and laugh

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2011 Predictions thread - http://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/1...

I made a whole load of vague predictions that are hard to say whether they're right or wrong. SWTOR hasn't been out long enough to say whether it's got legs.

For 2012, just like 2011 it's hard to see anything major happening (which I suppose is where the fun is). There's lots of existing trends that I'd expect to continue, but I find it hard to think of anything new or surprising.

There's a pressure on Sony/MS to announce new console hardware, especially with Nintendo going first with the Wii-U announcement, but that doesn't seem to have lit a fire under them. The current generation will drag out for a while yet, but hardware is coming (the games are in development), I'd say MS will go for launch first again, but I don't feel confident putting it in 2012.

Predictions!

- The Mass Effect 3 single player storyline will be uncharacteristically cut and dry. Players will blame the multiplayer for that and any other perceived flaw. Late in the year, EA will announce a F2P Mass Effect MMO.

- Kojima will announce a new Metal Gear game starring Solid Snake. It will be a launch title for next generation consoles (double bonus prediction: it will miss the launch).

- UbiSoft will announce that the next Assassin's Creed game will be set during WWII, making Lobster sad for multiple reasons. To everyone's shock, it will not be released in 2012.

- The new C&C Generals game will release to a market dominated by Starcraft II and tired of contemporary warfare. EA will close down BioWare and hang Casey Hudson's head on the wall (right next to Andrew Goldman's).

- Microsoft will launch another attempt to close the PC gaming market to outsiders, akin to XBox Live. This will coincide with Win 8, then again about half a year later. Both attempts will fail. After the second one, Microsoft will do something seemingly vindictive. They will blame piracy.

- We will see the first closing of a digital distribution service that is unable to provide customers with an alternate download site for their purchased products. The internet will burn.

LobsterMobster wrote:

- The Mass Effect 3 single player storyline will be uncharacteristically cut and dry. Players will blame the multiplayer for that and any other perceived flaw. Late in the year, EA will announce a F2P Mass Effect MMO.

I've skimmed the leak (yes, I know, not final, etc.) and I think you're right. It will be what everyone is expecting, and not a whole lot more. EA and Bioware are currently in many people's bad books, and can't win however they make their game. It'll be good, but not Citizen Kane, so everyone will love it for the first month, damn it for the next two, then you'll get a load of people saying "why did this get bad press?".

- UbiSoft will announce that the next Assassin's Creed game will be set during WWII, making Lobster sad for multiple reasons. To everyone's shock, it will not be released in 2012.

Hmmm, I doubt WW2 as it's too open to traditional combat. Perhaps a decade either side.

- The new C&C Generals game will release to a market dominated by Starcraft II and tired of contemporary warfare.

Mild success, all they need to do is put out an average RTS taking minimal risks. so long as it's not C&C4 again. SC2 HotS should be out this year giving it good competition. (I wonder if EA will set up a 'fight' again, like they did for BF3 vs COD MW3)

- Microsoft will launch another attempt to close the PC gaming market to outsiders, akin to XBox Live. This will coincide with Win 8, then again about half a year later. Both attempts will fail. After the second one, Microsoft will do something seemingly vindictive. They will blame piracy.

That would require them putting in any effort at all. Snark aside, I think they'll try something linking in with the next xbox and win8, and probably exclusive to them which means 99% of people putting out games who don't want to eliminate most of their audience will not follow them (see: Halo 2 vista)

I think the next Creed will come out in 2012, as I'm pretty sure they're rotating the teams.

Mine:

- The Vita will have a better first six months than the PSP

- NeverDead will sell over 500k copies

- The BioWare name will have been dragged through the mud by the end of the year

- Bioshock Infinite will receive a few perfect scores from major reviewers

- Playstation 3 will overtake 360 in overall sales (we'll know this in April), and will rise (I'm pinning a lot of hope on Vita inter-operability)

- Metal Gear Revengeance will be good. I believe in Platinum Games

- There will not be a Fable 4 announced

- Some of the best games of the year (according to Goodjers) will come out in August

- Fumito Ueda will form a new studio, owned/funded by someone who isn't Sony

- Ni No Kuni will be stunning, but will have pathetic sales outside Japan, and will be the greatest tragedy ever to befall nerdkind. That or it will save the Japanese market because it's marketed/timed right. I have my doubts though

- A celebrity/prominent person will be part of some kind of scandal involving Kinect

- A Nintendo character will be associated with a non-Nintendo platform (kind of depends on when the Wii U comes out though, there needs to be enough time for it to flop)

- Rayman Origins will sell more in 2012 than it did in 2011

Space Indaver wrote:

- A celebrity/prominent person will be part of some kind of scandal involving Kinect

It's a lot easier to imagine a scandal involving the Wii. Possibly with the Plus attachment, if you know what I mean.

Space Indaver wrote:

- A celebrity/prominent person will be part of some kind of scandal involving Kinect

My mind is reeling with the possibilities.

- The WiiU will be a complete disaster, worse than the 3DS. This failure will put Nintendo in a very shaky position, to the point that their future will be seriously questioned by the end of the year.

- Microsoft will announce a new system to be released in 2013.

- Sony and Valve will strengthen their ties, with Steam implementation becoming much more prevalent on the PS3.

- The GWJ community will become addicted to a new Facebook game, which will generate a thread that will pass 500 pages in a month, and will be the main topic of the conference call one week.

- The donation drive this year will be bigger than ever. This will result in Certis quitting his job and having a throne made from old NES cartridges, DDR mats and the bones of banned community members. He will moderate the forums using a combination of "lead by example" and the random feeding of interns to his rabid mutated Demiurge. The attainment of a forum tag by a Goodjer will be celebrated in a slap n' tickle that would make Caligula run screaming for the exits, while Stranglebones sits in the corner playing the lute and tossing handfuls of psychotropic marshmallows into the pit.

- Much to everyone's chagrin, S.T.A.L.K.E.R.'s developer GSC Gameworld will decisively close. Studio members will mass-migrate to another developer following GSC's closure, keeping hopes of S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2 (or a spiritual successor) alive.

- SWTOR transitions to a Freemium model, offering multiple tiers of subscriptions.

- CS: GO will be an unparalleled success, prompting Gabe to buy another swimming vault for his vacation house. Bright red Fireman hattes for all!

- Hitman: Absolution will be 2012's dark horse game, rivalling hotly anticipated titles such as Mass Effect 3 for GOTY status.

Deadmonkeys wrote:

- Hitman: Absolution will be 2012's dark horse game, rivalling hotly anticipated titles such as Mass Effect 3 for GOTY status.

I like this prediction a lot. I hope it comes true.

A few of my own:

- I bet Rovio will release a new game this year, that while not as popular as Angry Birds, will still receive significant popular attention.

- I bet Mass Effect 3 will probably disappoint me (but it won't stop me from taking a day off from work to play it)

- I bet Soul Calibur 5 will be reviewed poorly, but I will still somehow enjoy it.

- I bet GRID 2 gets released by Codemasters around October.

- I bet Sword of the Stars 2 will probably still be buggy by June.

- I bet Fallout 4 is announced at the end of the year.

- I bet a Skyrim DLC will just be one large dungeon (or a series of inter-connected ones). Dungeons are the new horse armor, folks. Bethesda spoiled us

- I bet Half Life 3 is released this summer.

- Diablo III will be awesome. And if it's not, I will still love it and play it nonstop for weeks/months/years on end.

Buoyed by major first-party titles, the 3DS will continue to sell at its post-price cut rate. Eventually, the gaming press will realize this means it isn't a spectacular failure, although it may prompt them to beat the old drum that there aren't any good third-party titles on a Nintendo system. The smartphone/tablet crowd will continue to insist that Nintendo is doomed, though.

The Vita, meanwhile, will follow the same sales trajectory in the US that it has in Japan: a modest launch followed by abysmal numbers. That modest launch will move fewer units than the 3DS launch but will receive much more positive press coverage.

Microsoft announces the 360 successor in two versions: a stripped-down, controllerless version aimed at the Roku crowd, and one that looks more like a traditional console (Kinect standard).

I'm wondering if Blizzard will take the covers off Titan at Blizzcon, or more likely next year. I don't think they will.

Microsoft announces that its upcoming console runs Windows 8 as its core operating system, and that all games built for that console can be run on any vanilla Windows 8 home-built PC, as long as it meets sufficient minimum specs.

merphle wrote:

Microsoft announces that its upcoming console runs Windows 8 as its core operating system, and that all games built for that console can be run on any vanilla Windows 8 home-built PC, as long as it meets sufficient minimum specs.

Hmmm, people have been predicting/asking for that feature for aeons now. There's a whole host of reasons why it's possible and why they wouldn't do it. I'd like to see a company do a leap of faith like that and go do it, but I doubt it would be MS. Could a 'console company' turn away from supporting dedicated hardware? Could someone (other than MS) manufacture a PC in a box that functions as a console, perhaps running something like Steam "Big Picture"?

More information about titan is revealed or leaked. Internet warriors take up arms on forums about how awesome/terrible it will be.

merphle wrote:

Microsoft announces that its upcoming console runs Windows 8 as its core operating system, and that all games built for that console can be run on any vanilla Windows 8 home-built PC, as long as it meets sufficient minimum specs.

The Windows 7 automatic driver install server is amazing these days. I don't doubt that they could just publish a list of "good enough" components, and as long as your machine has all of them, it will be able to handle everything the console does with a bit of wiggle room.

It would probably require a devoted "game mode", which would be a separate login with no background processes, as their way of controlling the environment and making sure there're no performance problems. This would obviously be circumvented by power users. These days there are very few straightforward "compatibility" issues (as we used to know them) that come up with games. It's usually a case of drivers or Direct X et e needing to be updated - all of which would be kept bang up to date by Live, - or components not being competent. I think this could happen.

The addition of metro, and things like IE10 on metro makes me think we'll see some device that's under the xbox brand that's not aimed at playing games. There does seem to be movement to get something in-between a desktop experience and a console/tablet. An entertainment console, if you will, that also does common desktop tasks like browsing facebook, etc.

Also has me wondering if they'll just release IE10 on the xbox360.

trichy wrote:

- The donation drive this year will be bigger than ever. This will result in Certis quitting his job and having a throne made from old NES cartridges, DDR mats and the bones of banned community members. He will moderate the forums using a combination of "lead by example" and the random feeding of interns to his rabid mutated Demiurge.

- I predict that Demiurge will rebel, escaping from his imprisonment and, eventually, facing his master earn his freedom in a duel to the tweet. He will travel around the internets for awhile before settling at his own competing site with GWJ and find success where his father found not.

Right:
-Many more titles will release with support for PlayStation Move this year. It will largely be ignored by everyone.
-Kinect hardware will continue to sell, despite only seeing a very small number of titles trickle out until the Christmas season.
-Mass Effect 3 will slip into 2012.
-A redesigned Wii will be announced without Gamecube compatibility. It will not be the Wii HD. It will not play DVD movies. It will also not be that much cheaper.

Wrong:
-OnLive will be offered as a channel on the Wii.
-L4D3 will appear, set on the west coast.

Mixed:
-No FFVII HD remake. But it will come to iOS. No iOS.
-One more Guitar Hero each for consoles and portables. Still no Sitar Hero. No Hero games at all.
-The 3DS will have shockingly competent online capabilities. It's only adequate now.

And for 2012:
-Kinect will see a rerelease with a more compact unit this Fall instead of a new Microsoft console. It will support shorter distances.
-Xbox 360 Holiday Bundle(s) will (all) include Kinect
-Vita will see both a price cut and a concession to include some amount of usable memory packed-in with the system
-No Starcraft II or Assassin's Creed followups this year
-Call of Duty: Desert Storm will be released
-PS3 will see a small redesign with its next price drop

Bold predictions:

- As I already predicted on Elysium's front page article, I wouldn't be surprised if TOR is free-to-play/freemium by the end of 2012.

- Microsoft will unveil the next Xbox at E3, and it will release in November of this year, not 2013.

- I will receive a beta invite for Guild Wars 2 and really enjoy a true MMO for the first time.

- Red Dead Redemption will finally be released on PC and I will gladly buy it and play it a second time. (C'mon Rockstar, seriously.)

Safe predictions:

- I will pre-order Torchlight 2 and play lots of co-op with fellow GWJers when it's released in Q2.

- Diablo 3 will release, and I will not buy it.

- The PS Vita will sell relatively well (especially compared to the first 6 months for the 3DS) and will not see a price drop (in 2012).

- Even though I'm a huge Mass Effect fan, I will find the willpower to resist buying ME3 at release, and instead wait for its inevitable price drop (hopefully sooner rather than later).

MeatMan wrote:

- As I already predicted on Elysium's front page article, I wouldn't be surprised if TOR is free-to-play/freemium by the end of 2012.

It's certainly bold to think it'll happen in the first year. That said, Mythic have already got warhammer F2P under their belt.

I'm with you on waiting on ME3. Even as someone who's lost count of the number of playthroughs I've done, I'm a bit burned out both on the series and EA/Bioware.

Last year's predictions:
- Indie games are king and all AAA titles are sequels. I was right about all the sequels but I don't think indie games had a large presence except for Bastion. There were many other good indie games as well but were still overshadowed by the big budget sequels.
- If Diablo III comes out... Well, it didn't come out and there's still no official release date. For some reason people had negative sentiments about the game around prediction time last year, but I don't think most people do anymore.
- The Old Republic...hasn't been out long enough to say much. People were also negative on this last year, but at this point I don't think there's a chance of it failing. In fact it wouldn't be too surprising if it overtook WoW.
- Android vs iOS achieving parity. I don't know why I made this prediction since I don't even own a smart phone. But it sounds to me like they achieved parity not by more developers supporting Android but by the iOS game scene drying up. (With the exception of Sword and Sworcery).
- AAA and indie games for Kinect. No real big budget games yet, but I'd say Gunstringer is the indie darling I predicted. Child of Eden might qualify too. However I'm not sure either really sell on the promise of the Kinect.

This year:
For some reason I have no desire to make any major predictions. I'm kind of disappointed that the best games of last year were largely all sequels and I don't see that trend bucking this year. The only games I'm looking forward to that won't be direct sequels are The Witness and arguably Bioshock: Infinite. And to be honest I am excited for some of the sequels like Mass Effect 3, Diablo III, and Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm.

*Legion* wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2010. Book it! :D

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2011. Book it! :D

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2012. Book it!

Latrine wrote:

Last year's predictions:
- Indie games are king and all AAA titles are sequels. I was right about all the sequels but I don't think indie games had a large presence except for Bastion. There were many other good indie games as well but were still overshadowed by the big budget sequels.

I'd say indie games and big budget games are not directly competing, but playing the same game in different leagues.

After starting in 2010, last year however saw big growth for the indie bundles, giving a huge second wind to indie sales, and outside of steam (although steam keys are offered for most). They're bringing in payments in quantities that are huge for the developers concerned, and turning a lot of games into a little hipster "it's too obscure for you to have heard about it" thing, to hundreds of thousands of people playing them.

I'd love to see such bundles improve in ambition over the next year.

Kurrelgyre wrote:

-No Starcraft II or Assassin's Creed followups this year

I expect you'll be wrong about both of these, or at the very least the Starcraft 2 expansion. Heart of the Swarm is all but guaranteed for 2012.

*Legion* wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2010. Book it! :D

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2011. Book it! :D

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2012. Book it! :D

Heh. Just heh.

Funny to see the doom and gloom for the WiiU. It can't be worse than the Gamecube, and Nintendo came out of that just fine. Everyone underestimates how much cash they have in reserve. And how successful selling hardware at a profit is, vs the loss strategies that Sony/Microsoft pursue to build up a user base.

Nintendo is fine. They won't be going to a "software only" company anytime soon. Their only real problem is not getting out first party titles soon enough after a launch, or quick enough without gaps.

Thin_J wrote:
Kurrelgyre wrote:

-No Starcraft II or Assassin's Creed followups this year

I expect you'll be wrong about both of these, or at the very least the Starcraft 2 expansion. Heart of the Swarm is all but guaranteed for 2012.

Ubisoft has also said that Assassin's Creed is an annual franchise now. But given how they had to practically rope in the whole company to make Revelations ship on time and that it's gotten mixed reviews, maybe (hopefully) they will change this policy. All depends how big a sales drop Revelations had.

Parallax Abstraction wrote:

Ubisoft has also said that Assassin's Creed is an annual franchise now. But given how they had to practically rope in the whole company to make Revelations ship on time and that it's gotten mixed reviews, maybe (hopefully) they will change this policy. All depends how big a sales drop Revelations had.

I'd agree that Assassin's Creed has some odds of getting moved into 2013, but at the same time they did start alternating teams on the game so in theory the other studio(s) should have been running full steam on the next game since the release of Brotherhood.

On the other hand Ubisoft has shown some signs that they're willing to let a franchise sit for a while if they have a less than stellar outing. Rainbow Six and Ghost Recon have both gone without a release for a long time now.

Ok here's my 2011 Predictions list:
First, the foolproof ones:
Apple will release a new version of a product. The owners of the old version will hate the old product, and will wait in line for the new product, which is only slightly better than the old product. DEAD ON

There will an incredibly cool new trend in gaming that is so much better than the old trend from last year, which totally sucks now. Can't point a finger at any one thing but I'm pretty sure this one is accurate.

An indie title made by a European will be pretty cool and get a niche group of players. Kind of cheating with Minecraft, but yeah.

Nolan North will do some voice over. DEAD ON

Paradox will release a game that's pretty complicated and difficult to play except for the hardcore. DEAD ON

That sequel in that franchise will have better graphics, but the gameplay will not be better than the original. Sadly, some will point to Dragon Age 2, Battlefield 3 and MW3.

How could they release that buggy title in June? When was Duke Nukem released?

Everything is different in the new Madden, but not really. Not even close

More virtual elf boobs in web ads. YUP.

And now for the less likely ones:
Evil Genius 2 will be announced. WRONG

Anchorman and Anchormon: Extra Mahogany Edition will premeiere as adventure games (please God let this happen) WRONG

Fable Online will be announced extremely prematurely by Peter Molynieux. Peter will also claim the game cures cancer. WRONG

Mechwarrior will return in some form, but not how everyone expected. HOLY CRAP I GOT ONE

The Civ V expansion will improve gameplay overall, but will add a new feature everyone hates. NOT YET BUT IT WILL HAPPEN

At Blizzcon, we finally find out about the mystery MMO. YES, BUT I DIDN"T EXPECT THE NEW MMO TO BE WOW PET FIGHTER

Left for Dead 3 will be announced at E3, and then Valve will half-heartedly announce Episode 3 (2012). WRONG

The Old Republic will be a big hit....for the first 6 months. It will review well but not great, it will be stable as hell, but ultimately the gameplay will be kind of boring. TRENDS POINT TO YES, BUT I HOPE IT LASTS LONGER

Star Trek will go Free to Play ala Champions Online and LoTRO. YES

Spore 2 announcement. Just that it's planned. Or at least another expansion. WRONG

Will Wright will not return to gaming. KIND OF A SOFTBALL PREDICTION, BUT YES

Shogun: Total War will be the Strategy game of the year. YES

Deus Ex will be very, very good, but will not live up to the trailer hype. YES

We finally see what Tali looks like under her Quarian helmet in Mass Effect 3, and nobody got it right. SADLY, PROBABLY YES IN 3 MONTHS

Duke Nukem will actually be pretty decent. SCIENTOLOGY WRONG

Assassin's Creed 3 will be revealed. Heading to Asia, but China, not Japan. PENDING

I'm joking for 99% of this, but I did hit on a couple of these. Sadly, some of them came true.

hbi2k wrote:

* There will be not a peep from either Bungie or Respawn. Dead-on. +1

Bungie released an iOS game. :p

My last year's predictions:

* Call of Duty makes a serious misstep. Got to deduct a point for this one. I WILL say that people seem much less excited about MW3 than they did about the last few entries in the series, but I was predicting some sort of terrible fanboy-enraging gaffe, and that didn't happen, just a general ennui about the series (and that's assuming that that's not just me looking in from the outside and reading things into it that aren't there). -1

* There will be not a peep from either Bungie or Respawn. Dead-on. +1

* The 3DS is huge. Nope. -1. Yeah, it sold better than the DS in the same yadda yadda yadda, but I was predicting shortages and lines around the block and the whole nine yards, and it just plain didn't capture the public's imagination that way.

* Sony will announce a new PSP in the spring, to be released in 2012. Granted, this was kind of a gimme. +1

* No new hardware announcements from Nintendo. Ouch. -1

* There will be no announcements of a 360 successor. That's more like it. +1

* You will be able to ride a dragon to travel in Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. I'll call this one even: yes, you technically ride a dragon at one point in the main story, but it was just another loading-screen-and-you're-there thing, not a full-on in-engine "everyone looks like ants from up here, daddy!" dragon ride. +0

* There will be more terrible-ass plot-required vehicle sequences in Mass Effect 3. I'll go double-or-nothing on this one when the game comes out in 2012.

* Dragon Quest X is announced for the Wii. I'll take the point for this one, although I'm significantly less excited for a new Dragon Quest now that they're turning it into a damn MMO. +1

* Been waiting for Diablo 3 or Half-Life 2 Episode 3? Keep waiting. Another gimme. +1

* Duke Nukem Forever will be finished this year, but some last-minute game-crippling bug will be discovered and require it to be pushed to January 2012. In retrospect, I'm not sure whether I meant this as a serious prediction or just a silly bit of "wouldn't it be funny if..." snark. Either way, -1.

* Expensive $100-$150 peripherals (read: plastic instruments, motion controllers, etc.) are dead. I'll take half a point for this one: I was mostly right, although Kinect is still hanging in there with its dance games and whatnot, and if you count Rocksmith, by all accounts that's done a fine job of delivering on its promises to a small niche audience, which is nothing to scoff at. +0.5

* The spring Xbox dashboard update will be a bunch of under-the-hood stuff plus a bunch of stuff more firmly integrating Kinect into the UI for those as have one o' them magic robot eyeballs. The fall dashboard update will actually add features we care about, though, most of them cribbed from Steam. Spring update not doing much? Check. Fall update adding an old Steam feature (cloud saves)? Check. +1

Final Score: +2.5

I'll be back with some predictions for this year when I get the chance.

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