FF2011: Official GWJFFLK-specific discussion thread

garion333 wrote:
oldmanscene24 wrote:
Grumpicus wrote:

For nicer formatting, I suggest you just go here

I'm not seeing anyone's keepers but my own. It appears to me that ESPN keeps this confidential until the "Keeper Lock Date." If this is the case, a keeper message to Grumpicus could be unnecessary in the future.

I just went in and set mine again. Can you see them now?

Nope. Can you see mine?

oldmanscene24 wrote:
garion333 wrote:
oldmanscene24 wrote:
Grumpicus wrote:

For nicer formatting, I suggest you just go here

I'm not seeing anyone's keepers but my own. It appears to me that ESPN keeps this confidential until the "Keeper Lock Date." If this is the case, a keeper message to Grumpicus could be unnecessary in the future.

I just went in and set mine again. Can you see them now?

Nope. Can you see mine?

Careful. Some kids tried to play this game with me on the playground, and, well, let's just say I saw stuff I shouldn't have seen, nor can be unseen.

oldmanscene24 wrote:
garion333 wrote:
oldmanscene24 wrote:
Grumpicus wrote:

For nicer formatting, I suggest you just go here

I'm not seeing anyone's keepers but my own. It appears to me that ESPN keeps this confidential until the "Keeper Lock Date." If this is the case, a keeper message to Grumpicus could be unnecessary in the future.

I just went in and set mine again. Can you see them now?

Nope. Can you see mine?

Nein.

Lars wrote:

Careful. Some kids tried to play this game with me on the playground, and, well, let's just say I saw stuff I shouldn't have seen, nor can be unseen.

Shhhh, I almost fooled him.

garion333 wrote:
oldmanscene24 wrote:
garion333 wrote:
oldmanscene24 wrote:
Grumpicus wrote:

For nicer formatting, I suggest you just go here

I'm not seeing anyone's keepers but my own. It appears to me that ESPN keeps this confidential until the "Keeper Lock Date." If this is the case, a keeper message to Grumpicus could be unnecessary in the future.

I just went in and set mine again. Can you see them now?

Nope. Can you see mine?

Nein.

Lars wrote:

Careful. Some kids tried to play this game with me on the playground, and, well, let's just say I saw stuff I shouldn't have seen, nor can be unseen.

Shhhh, I almost fooled him.

What's that? You've got candy in your van?

Wow, a lot more people kept their players than I expected... I'll probably have to just buy most of my guys back now.

Landshrk83 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Jamaal Charles looks like good value at less than $40.

And to think a bunch of people were surprised I paid as much as I did for him last year :).

My thing with Charles' price was simply that I wanted to target either him or LeSean McCoy, and was surprised when Charles went for so much more. Mostly, I was just happy that I made an aggressive move for McCoy instead of waiting for the Charles bid. I am quite happy to be keeping McCoy for only $28, especially given his current AAV of $42.

I was going to do a list of "surprise" non-keepers, but pretty much the best I could do were guys who were at AAV or a buck beneath it.

I was going to do a list of "surprise" non-keepers, but pretty much the best I could do were guys who were at AAV or a buck beneath it.

Yeah, I did a similar calc on my guys and got the same result, so I figured I might as well dump everybody except McFadden... unfortunately I didn't take the new teams and their huge budgets into account when I did that.

I'm surprised Blacksheep didn't keep at least Josh Freeman, but I'm not sure it was a conscious choice.

I also think some players were overpaid for but I'll wait till after the draft to say my thoughts there

Minase wrote:
I was going to do a list of "surprise" non-keepers, but pretty much the best I could do were guys who were at AAV or a buck beneath it.

Yeah, I did a similar calc on my guys and got the same result, so I figured I might as well dump everybody except McFadden... unfortunately I didn't take the new teams and their huge budgets into account when I did that.

Trust me when I say I'd rather have had a few guys with lower-then-value salaries on my team. But that was FAR from true.

Jolly Bill wrote:

I'm surprised Blacksheep didn't keep at least Josh Freeman, but I'm not sure it was a conscious choice.

That's about the only one I see where the keeper value is significantly cheaper than AAV ($4 keeper, AAV running at $14).

I also think some players were overpaid for but I'll wait till after the draft to say my thoughts there

Heh. I overpaid for Jeremy Maclin in keeping him at $17 with his AAV at $14. I just decided I'd live with it, investing some of the savings from some other keepers. Also thought his illness concerns were depressing his AAV by a buck or two.

I also "overpaid" for Billy Volek by 2x - $2 instead of $1 - but as my "handcuff" backup to Philip Rivers and my roster's lone remaining Fresno State graduate, he gets to be overpaid with that extra buck.

Everyone else was either at or below AAV, so, yay.

I reached out to Blacksheep via SteamIM last night and he didn't want to keep anyone. If you haven't "friended" me yet, it might come in handy at some point.

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If no one can see the other keepers on the ESPN page I linked, then all I'll have to do is update the rosters during the offseason and y'all can designate keepers at your convenience. I like.

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ukickmydog wrote:

A lot of people not kept that I would have kept if I had their teams.

Minase wrote:

Wow, a lot more people kept their players than I expected...

Interesting.

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I overpaid for Fitzgerald but *Legion* told me to.

Grumpicus wrote:

I overpaid for Fitzgerald but *Legion* told me to. ;-)

You can overpay for Fitzgerald when you have a budget surplus from spending only $4 each on your WR2 (Brandon Lloyd) and WR3 (Steve Johnson). Both of those guys are $15 AAV, so just one of them gives you the $11 of space you overspent on Fitz. You're still $11 under AAV for the trio.

You're also $12 below AAV on Arian Foster, as if that wasn't enough.

What site are you getting your AAV from Legion? Does the site take into account PPR?

Elliottx wrote:

What site are you getting your AAV from Legion? Does the site take into account PPR?

I doubt it, from his numbers. I also don't think he's taking into account the inflation caused by players being kept at below market rates. From my estimation, Grump got Fitz at below market, too (depending on where you rank him among receivers).

Elliottx wrote:

What site are you getting your AAV from Legion? Does the site take into account PPR?

MyFantasyLeague.

You can choose to filter it by PPR. Admittedly, I have just been glancing at it with the default "All scoring systems". Though the difference is generally limited - Fitzgerald goes up by $1 when switching from "All" to "PPR", for example.

Landshrk83 wrote:

I also don't think he's taking into account the inflation caused by players being kept at below market rates.

No, it's not. It is strictly plain auction values. There's no real viable way to adjust for inflation by cheap keepers, although I question how high that inflation will really be across the board. Still, AAV is a guidepost and not a bad one, if their similarity to the keep/throw back decisions people made are any indication. Players above AAV weren't often kept, and the ones that were kept were done very mindfully.

I have inflation figured in and I still think Fitz went $5 more than he should have. Then again, Grumps is moneybags this year, so he can afford it.

I'm moneybags? Am I starting with more than $200?

Well just did a warm-up mock auction draft over at ESPN. It's like playing chess against preschoolers, sure they can move the pieces but there is no strategy.

I'm going to throw out my cheat sheet values for 3 random players:
Matt Schaub $14
Anquan Boldin $28
Steven Jackson $50

Looking forward to tomorrow.

Grumpicus wrote:

I'm moneybags? Am I starting with more than $200? :P

Based on the additional money you have after the players you've kept, I say the term still applies.

Elliottx wrote:

Well just did a warm-up mock auction draft over at ESPN. It's like playing chess against preschoolers, sure they can move the pieces but there is no strategy.

I'm going to throw out my cheat sheet values for 3 random players:
Matt Schaub $14
Anquan Boldin $28
Steven Jackson $50

Looking forward to tomorrow.

You, sir, are a brave man. Or very foolish. TBD.

For those that are curious, the reason I didn't keep Freeman is because the quarterback pool is very deep this year and I'm pretty unconcerned about finding someone who will score in Freeman's vicinity. I know Freeman is an 'it' choice right now, and at $4 he probably should have been kept, but I just wanted to erase all memories of last season. Somehow I made the playoffs when my team imploded and was mostly a pretty funny joke.

Don't worry, I'll find this year's Freeman for you

Sooo is there going to be a link on ESPN that shows up for the draft? All I see is a count down timer.

ukickmydog wrote:

Sooo is there going to be a link on ESPN that shows up for the draft? All I see is a count down timer.

Yeah, it'll show up where the timer is.

Edit: Don't forget to do a mock draft and make sure you can run their program.

Were we supposed to drop all of our players we aren't keeping? ESPN won't let me drop Ray Rice or Greg Jennings.

Minase wrote:

Were we supposed to drop all of our players we aren't keeping? ESPN won't let me drop Ray Rice or Greg Jennings.

Same... I can't drop Drew Brees, MJD, or Johnson. Dropped everyone else though.

I imagine Grumps will take care of it.

Also, join us in Ventrilo. We used the Elemental room last night, which is where I'm sitting now.

Ugh. That was a bloodbath. I really screwed up by not keeping Gates and Jennings.

So, do you want to just give me the crown, or do we have to play through this farce of a season?

Live and learn, definitely.

Receivers were insanely costly. I probably should've kept more players. Next year ...

yeah, all the inflation seems to have gone to receivers. Based on my kept vs expected value I thought Running backs and receivers would both inflate about 21%, but it looked like it ALL went to the receivers.