NFL 2011 Post-Lockout, Pre-Season Thread

The Bucs have announced that Lee Roy Selmon passed away.

Jaguars trade conditional pick for Dwight Lowery.

Nice get by the Jaguars. Lowery started to become a good coverage safety last year, after converting from cornerback. But he was a Mangini pick and not a fit for the more aggressive, press-man style of defense Rex runs. Jacksonville plays a much more conservative defense and they need people with cover skills at those safety spots.

Not sure if Lowery will stay at safety or go back to cornerback, as the Jags don't play press the way the Jets do, but I expect him to be somewhere in the secondary soon.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
The Bucs have announced that Lee Roy Selmon passed away.

Word is, Peyton Manning needs another neck surgery. Hope Collins has learned as much as he says he has.

Jolly Bill wrote:
Word is, Peyton Manning needs another neck surgery. Hope Collins has learned as much as he says he has.

Ouch! The Colts weren't looking great even with Manning. Opens the door for the Jags for Legion though!

Of course, I got Manning in my auto-draft fantasy league. That's already problematic for certain games during the year, but if this holds up I'm boned.

New thread by Thursday afternoon Pacific time, so none of y'all better be stealing me thunder.

Rat Boy wrote:
New thread by Thursday afternoon Pacific time, so none of y'all better be stealing me thunder.

You know Boogle reads this thread, right? If I'm finding it difficult to create a week 1 thread right now imagine how he feels.

I'm not yet convinced Manning is going to miss significant time. Week 1, probably, breaking the streak. But until we hear something actually substantiating the idea thathe is going to get another procedure done, I will continue to expect his return to be fairly imminent.

LeapingGnome wrote:
Jolly Bill wrote:
Word is, Peyton Manning needs another neck surgery. Hope Collins has learned as much as he says he has.

Ouch! The Colts weren't looking great even with Manning. Opens the door for the Texans for Hoppa though!

FTFY

Your Jaguars news of the day: Garrard cut

Garrard getting cut is (A) very surprising and (B) really kind of a crappy move; it's not like he has time to find another solid job prior to the season starting. Echoes of Leftwich; I realize it's a business at all, but it's just, well, rude.

Unless this is just a cover story for the fact that Terrance Knighton actually ate him.

Wow, that is just... amazing.

It's your turn, McCown. I guess.

Jolly Bill wrote:
Wow, that is just... amazing.

It's your turn, MJD. I guess.

Hahahahaahahahaha! They're gonna have to run him into the ground this year. Good news for my keeper team.

Jolly Bill wrote:
It's your turn, McCown. I guess.

Ha, no. McCown is simply holding down the fort until Gabbert is ready. There's no question this team thinks Gabbert is a franchise QB. I expect we'll see Gabbert within the first few weeks.

Had Gabbert had a full offseason, he probably would be starting week 1. The lack of offseason activities has set back all the rookie QBs.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
it's not like he has time to find another solid job prior to the season starting.

I expect that they sniffed around for trades and didn't find any takers. Too bad.

I think if the team had a full offseason to work with Gabbert, they would have let Garrard go earlier. That time lost made holding onto Garrard an insurance policy, I think. But with McCown outplaying Garrard, it became an expensive policy.

No one mentioned Fred Taylor retiring?

Follow up: is he a HOFer or not?

Nightmare wrote:
No one mentioned Fred Taylor retiring?

Follow up: is he a HOFer or not?

If they start letting in about 30 people a year, sure. If there's a "injured often enough that, even after retirement, he's still a running joke at fantasy football drafts" wing, he's first-ballot.

Other than that, not even close. He was one of the best ten or so backs in the league for several years, but nobody ever said, "Wow, that Fred Taylor is one of the all-time greats". Never named All-Pro, made the Pro Bowl a grand total of once. He's not even qualified to be in the Hall of Very Good.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Other than that, not even close. He was one of the best ten or so backs in the league for several years, but nobody ever said, "Wow, that Fred Taylor is one of the all-time greats". Never named All-Pro, made the Pro Bowl a grand total of once. He's not even qualified to be in the Hall of Very Good.

The lack of All-Pros and Pro Bowls are an indictment of those institutions more so than Taylor. If he played in New York, he would have plenty of those.

Taylor is one of 24 players to rush for over 10,000 yards. What's more, of those 24, Taylor ranks 6th in yards per carry. 11,000+ yards at 4.6 per carry is amazing production. His career average YPC is higher than every season Curtis Martin ever had.

His health was checkered, but he was mega-productive whenever he was on the field. The argument that he's not even Hall of Very Good is flat-out asinine.

Look at the guys around Taylor on the all-time yardage list, and look at how many carries it took them to get there. Hall of Famer John Riggins is right below Taylor. 343 fewer yards on 382 more carries.

I'm not saying Taylor is definitely a HOFer. I am saying he is clearly in the conversation, and saying he's beneath the Hall of Very Good is a gross lowball of his production.

That's kind of why I asked the question. When I think of him, it is as the "oft-injured Fred Taylor", but when I started to see his numbers, I was really surprised at how high up on a number of the all-time lists he is (21st in attempts? 14th in yards from scrimmage?).

Things look even more interesting when you compare Taylor to 2010 HOF finalist Roger Craig.

Craig was all about total offense, rushing + receiving yards. Yet while Craig averaged 79.4 total yards per game, Taylor gained 92.
Thanks to that high per-game average, Taylor outgained Craig in absolute terms as well, despite playing 10 fewer games.

Yet Craig is not only a candidate but was a finalist last year, and Taylor is considered not a candidate at all?

Depends on how you define "Hall of Very Good"; I've heard it used in the past to represent those guys who aren't quite HOFers, those guys who just don't quite have enough to make it. I heard Art Monk referred that way for years, and that's currently where guys like Andre Reed and Tim Brown may expect to be living for years. They were excellent players who just don't seem to have the push to make it, but their names are going to come up pretty much every year in the HOF discussion, even if they don't make it. And no, I don't think Fred Taylor will be in that group. Jamal Lewis averaged almost 1200 yards per year and had that 2000 yard season, and nobody is going to be clamoring for him to get a bust either. I honestly think Taylor would have to sit behind Martin, Tomlinson, Bettis, Edjerrin James, and Tiki Barber just from this decade alone. To me, the "Hall of Very Good" is the "Hall of Pretty Darn Close To Getting In", and I don't think Taylor's there.

Yes, Taylor was productive, but he also suffered from playing in the same era as a lot of exceptionally good AFC backs on a small-market team that didn't have huge amounts of success. This is certainly a reason why you wouldn't make a Pro Bowl (which could not be a more pointless 'honor"), but All-Pro is done by the writers, and I tend to respect All-Pro nods.

Furthermore, comparing him to Riggins is pointless, and you know it; different eras have different play styles.

Edit: You aren't honestly relying on comparing standard stats across eras, are you? Craig was utterly deadly out of the backfield in an era when that wasn't normal. He had 92 catches in 1985; Willie Gault led all Bears receivers with 33 catches. Craig was notable because of that. There were plenty of RBs like Craig in 2011, but he led the league in receptions in 1985. That was pretty darn unique.

If Taylor gets in it would be because of his YPC. In an era where even great RB's last 4-5 years and a general feeling of apathy to running backs in general he may just be a victim of playing the "wrong" position

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
but he also suffered from playing in the same era as a lot of exceptionally good AFC backs... I honestly think Taylor would have to sit behind Martin, Tomlinson, Bettis, Edjerrin James, and Tiki Barber just from this decade alone.

I see absolutely no reason Edgerrin James would deserve to be anywhere ahead of Taylor. You're talking about a guy who didn't see 8 men in the box his entire career and still ran a measly 4.0 a pop. He feasted on defenses obsessed with stopping the spread-out passing game, and he didn't even take very big bites. He was nowhere near the explosive breakaway runner Taylor was.

Tiki Barber cut his career too short. Another couple of seasons of production and he would have climbed the all-time numbers lists and made a strong case for himself. Alas, he didn't, and I'm also not very moved by the Hall of Fame candidacy of a running back who spent the first 2/3rds of his career being a chronic fumbler.

Tomlinson, no question, is the top back of the era. Bettis and Martin, well, they did it so long that they just climbed the numbers list so highly. At least when they ran for 4.0 yards a carry, they were battering rams running into stacked defenses, instead of running against dime personnel like James.

Craig was notable because of that... That was pretty darn unique.

Notable and unique are nice but not what one inducts players for. Nobody's inducting Larry Centers for leading the league in receptions, either. (Although I would be OK with that)

Wrong thread...

I won the 2012 Superbowl with the Ravens. Our rookie running back B.Boutte was outstanding.

So we are one day away from the season kicking off and nobody has posted predictions? For shame!

AFC East:
Jets 11-5 - Lots of ugly wins with this team.
Patriots 11-5* - They don't even care about the regular season anymore, it's just about the playoffs.
Dolphins 7-9 - Henne is way too proud about winning 7 games...
Bills 6-10

AFC North:
Ravens 12-4 - This team is good, stop sleeping on them.
Steelers 8-8 - Turns out a rapey Big Ben is more effective in the pocket then a married Big Ben.
Browns 8-8 - Despite the Madden curse hurting Peyton Hillis, Colt McCoy does enough.
Bengals 4-12 - Dalton is eventually replaced by a recently signed Jordan Palmer who crouches and throws at half strength.

AFC South:
Texans 13-3
Colts 9-7* - Oh they struggle to start but Manning comes back midway and the colts win out the second half.
Jaguars 6-10 - Don't cut your starting quarterback the week before the season starts, mmmkay?
Titans 6-10

AFC West:
Chargers 13-3 - Holy sh*t is Norv Turner a bad coach but they have the most talented team in the league.
Raiders 8-8 - They out perform with some luck.
Chiefs 7-9 - Regression.
Broncos 5-11 - The defense loses a ton of games for the Broncos, so they sit Orton and let Jesus Tebow suck. (Note: possible HUGE scandal when Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn are discovered to be lovers)

NFC East:
Cowboys 10-6 - They're a talented team, I doubt injuries will wreck them two years in a row.
Eagles 10-6* - Vick stays healthier longer then expected, only problem is he isn't as good unless he's getting constantly injured.
Giants 7-9
Redskins 6-10 - Unleash the dragon!

NFC North:
Packers 13-3 - Aaron Rodgers is your MVP as he stays hot from last year's playoffs.
Bears 8-8 - Cutler decides he likes wearing the big silly injury jacket and does it several times throughout the season.
Lions 8-8 - They're getting better Detroit but for god sakes knock it off with thinking they're already a Superbowl team.
Vikings 6-10 - Huh, who could've guessed that McNabb would suck on another sucky team?

NFC South:
Saints 11-5 - Brees has hit his peak, he's good but it's his worst season yet.
Bucaneers 10-6* - Freeman regresses but the defense picks up the team.
Falcons 9-7 - Complete regression due to the luck of last year. Plus Turner sucks.
Panthers 5-11 - Cam Newton is actually good...but the Panthers aren't.

NFC West:
Seahawks 8-8 - T.Jack sucks but not any worse then Hasselbeck.
Rams 8-8 - Turnovers cost them some wins.
Cardinals 7-9 - Kolb is okay but the D struggles without DRC.
49ers 2-14 - Guess who wins the Luck lottery!

*designates Wildcard teams

Wildcard Playoffs:
Colts OVER Jets - Stupid Manning.
Ravens OVER Patriots - Ravens beat up Brady so bad that Goodell makes up two more rules to protect Brady.
Eagles OVER Seahawks - This will just be the worst game of the playoffs, we're talking 56-10 here.
Cowboys OVER Bucaneers - Bucs rock but they're young and inexperienced.

Divisional Playoffs:
Ravens OVER Texans - Fun close game.
Chargers OVER Colts - Rivers gets his derp face on, while Manning gets his Manning face on.
Packers OVER Eagles - To be the best, you have to beat the best.
Cowboys OVER Saints - America cries as "America's Team" wins.

Conference Championships:
Ravens OVER Chargers - Stupid Norv Turner does so many bone headed things that we see Rivers chewing him out as time winds down.
Packers OVER Cowboys - Cowboys are just a worse version of the Packers.

Superbowl:
Packers OVER Ravens - Aaron Rodgers, a once beloved QB is now a back to back Superbowl champion. His championship belt celebration now looks totally douchey.

Elliottx wrote:
AFC South:
Texans 13-3

Of all your picks, this is the only one without comment? Really?

As a Ravens fan, I don't have that much faith in all the youngsters they have on the team.

Phishposer wrote:
Elliottx wrote:
AFC South:
Texans 13-3

Of all your picks, this is the only one without comment? Really? :D

Yeah I should have said something on that but they're kinda boring. It's really a combination of their schedule and that they're a good team if their D improves a bit from last year. Andre Johnson will finish 2nd in MVP voting.

Elliottx wrote:
Jaguars 6-10 - Don't cut your starting quarterback the week before the season starts, mmmkay?

That's how they got to the playoffs last time.

I disagree with a lot of your picks, but I think you've got the Cowboys and the Eagles right on. Except for the Eagles getting the tiebreaker.