FF2010: Keeper League discussion thread

*Legion* wrote:
Alternative: pin the floor and inflation to the year.

Since this is 2010, floor and inflation is $10. In 2011, it goes to Everything $11, then Everything $12 in 2012, etc.

This continues until players become too expensive and we have to renegotiate the CBA or lock their asses out.

Realism!

Ha. I love this. Let's go with this.

Alternatively the 'everything 10' or 'everything 9' theories would also work for simplicity. In the end I'm good with whatever. Also, since we can assume that players will inflate by AROUND $10 a year, it really shouldn't affect the draft tomorrow that much. The only real difference is what the salary floor is, because people will be more interested to bid for players under that limit than over. Even so, I'd imagine only a handful of players would really be affected by that in any way.

Anyone watching this thread and interested in mock drafting tonight? Shoot me a message on Steam.

Would have been interested to mock with you, but did some earlier and I think I'm good to go for tomorrow (and I need sleep tonight). Good luck!

Quick question: We aren't allowed to draft fewer than 20 players right? What happens if you run out of money after 18 or something? Or does the espn drafter even let you do that?

You won't be allowed to bid an amount that makes you unable to fill all 20 roster slots- the interface caps your bid relative to the number of positions you have left to fill, essentially making $181 the top bid.

Landshrk83 wrote:
You won't be allowed to bid an amount that makes you unable to fill all 20 roster slots- the interface caps your bid relative to the number of positions you have left to fill, essentially making $181 the top bid.

Feel free to make that bid, btw.

GWJFFLK's draft is complete and now imported into Fleaflicker. For the curious, here's a link to the draft results, including a tab sorted by price.

[size=10]QB Matt Schaub
RB Pierre Thomas
RB Ronnie Brown
WR Calvin Johnson
WR Steve Smith (Car.)
WR Terrell Owens
TE Vernon Davis
D/ST Packers D/ST
K Dan Carpenter
BE Jay Cutler
BE Joseph Addai
BE Jermichael Finley
BE Marion Barber
BE Vince Young
BE Mike Williams
BE Chris Chambers
BE Jabar Gaffney
BE Mike Thomas
BE Jermaine Gresham
BE Toby Gerhart[/size]

So, I'm not terribly happy with the way things had turned out. Of course I have no one to blame but myself. I specifically went in not wanting to use a boom&bust strategy as I thought that a ppr keeper league would offer me better value after the initial, super expensive players went off the table. What I didn't realize is that the players I was targeting would go for more than I wanted them to as other people were basically using the same strategy I was. So, someone like Jamaal Charles went for more than I was willing to pay, but looking back, I probably should've just jumped on him.

I ended up getting a number of players I have relatively on interest in: Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith (Car.). But on the flipside, I ended up paying less for them than I had them budgeted at. In a way, I suppose that's a win.

I did, however, end up with some players I wanted and at good prices: Matt Schaub, Jermichael Finley and (to a lesser extent price-wise) Calvin Johnson. I'm also happy I ended up with Vernon Davis because I thought he'd go for more, but I wasn't really targeting him because I doubt that he'll repeat his numbers from last year.

Other than that, I'm fine with some of my upside picks (Mike Williams, Mike Thomas & Jermaine Gresham), but I stupidly paid $10 for a couple of them, which means instead of paying $9 and having them be $10 next year, they'll be $20 (or $19 or $21, depending on however much we decide on).

So, here's what I learned: grow some balls. I didn't want to spend 50% of my budget on 2 players, but in the end, based on how cheap some players went in the mid-draft, the boom and bust philosophy might have worked better with the way you guys were drafting. The fact I didn't recognize this earlier in the draft and adjust accordingly is probably what's bothering me the most. But then again, this was my first real auction draft and mock drafts aren't terribly useful as the people in them tend to pick two players and then quit, so formulating real strategy is kinda hard.

This was my first auction draft and I was surprised at how fast it went. I over payed for a couple people, most notably Aaron Rogers. I thought QBs were going to go for more than they did and I like having that consistent production but with Brees going for $36, $49 for Rogers is not a bargain. With Roethlisberger I don't know what I was thinking. I don't even like Roethlisberger (even without the suspension). Overall I didn't prepare as much as I'd have liked but I'm still happy with the team.

garion's team

You've got a pretty solid team. A little light at the bench, but with the flex going back and forth as needed in the bye's, I'd say you're pretty good.

Here's my team:

JOLLY'S MANLY MEN
85 Brett Favre, Min QB $6
97 Eli Manning, NYG QB $4
210 Sam Bradford, StL QB $1

11 Michael Turner, Atl RB $43
32 C.J. Spiller, Buf RB $21
38 Ryan Grant, GB RB $25
216 Willie Parker, Was RB $1
221 Bernard Scott, Cin RB $1
226 Leonard Weaver, Phi RB $1

28 Brandon Marshall, Mia WR $31
71 Anquan Boldin, Bal WR $21
86 Percy Harvin, Min WR $11
92 Vincent Jackson*, SD WR $7
102 Sidney Rice*, Min WR $4
196 Julian Edelman, NE WR $1

54 Jason Witten, Dal TE $11
106 Brent Celek, Phi TE $7
175 Jeremy Shockey, NO TE $1

150 49ers D/ST, SF D/ST $2
186 Billy Cundiff, Bal K $1

I'm pretty happy with how the draft turned out. I paid about $1 to $2 more than I planned on just about each of my starters... thereby ruining my plans of stealing a lot of $2 players at the end of the draft. Still, I'm happier having the players I have starting than I would have been waiting for value. My strategy of targeting lower tier1/tier 2 players for value worked pretty well. I am not a big fan of Favre, but he was the right value pick for QB at the time. I'm happy to have Manning backing him up, since I consider them pretty much even in value, with Favre being the bigger risk. I'm not very deep at WR right NOW, but once Jackson and Rice come back from suspension/injury I think I'll be in amazing shape.

Tom Brady
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Devin Hester
Mike Sims-Walker
Pierre Garcon
Braylon Edwards
Kellen Winslow
Garrett Hartley
Miami Dolphins
Joe Flacco
Willis McGahee
Reggie Bush
Donald Brown
Steve Breaston
Legedu Naanee
Mike Wallace
Dexter McCluster
John Carlson
Jacksonville Jaguars

I'm one of the people who pillaged the mid levels. I'm happy. We'll see how it goes.

EvilHomer3k wrote:
This was my first auction draft and I was surprised at how fast it went. I over payed for a couple people, most notably Aaron Rogers. I thought QBs were going to go for more than they did and I like having that consistent production but with Brees going for $36, $49 for Rogers is not a bargain. With Roethlisberger I don't know what I was thinking. I don't even like Roethlisberger (even without the suspension). Overall I didn't prepare as much as I'd have liked but I'm still happy with the team.

Aaron Rogers is still a great player to have and considering that Ray Rice went for $65, AP went for $59 and CJ for $64, I think $49 for Rogers isn't terrible. I drafted 3rd in a non-ppr, qb emphasis (6pt tds) snake league and almost too him with the 3rd pick. I'm actually kicking myself a little for not.

But, this is a ppr league, so the value of qbs dips a bit.

@Jolly, I didn't realize you took both Jackson and Rice. That's a bit of a gamble, but considering you can keep both for next year @$10 they might be some of the best values from the draft.

My team:

Matt Hasselbeck
Alex Smith
Kyle Orton
Charlie Whitehurst
Mark Sanchez
Darren Sproles
Jerious Norwood
Darren McFadden
Ray Rice
Justin Gage
Chad Ochocinco
Mike Williams (SEA)
Greg Jennings
DeSean Jackson
Devin Thomas
Davone Bess
Stephen Williams
Antonio Gates
Stephen Gostkowski
Atlanta Falcons

I thought I got good value for most of my picks. My biggest weak spot is at QB (the studs went at way, way over where I would take them) so I went for the 'draft 1 veteran starter and a bunch of young starters and hope one of them matures' strategy at QB.

I'm also weak on RB depth, but if McFadden and Rice can stay healthy I think I'll be fine.

For the record, I'm not too keen on both $1 and $9 going to $10 the following year. I'm thinking that it will look more like...
0-4: $7
5-9: $12
10+: +$10
...though I'm not 100% happy with that, either... but you get the idea.

Edit: I'll have to run some scenarios but an alternate idea I had while running out the door is basically:
<10: 2x +1
10+: +$10

Edit2: Man, I'm never going to make it to the car. So yeah, that second idea isn't going to work either. With that formula, I'd have Miles Austin (I think I picked him up for free) for the next 5 years and will still only have to pay $16 in that 5th year. I'm guessing y'all wouldn't want to see that happen.

C'mon now. Anytime you want to feel good about your team, just check out Team Grump.

Starters
QB Jason Campbell OAK
RB Justin Forsett SEA
RB Arian Foster HOU
WR Andre Johnson HOU
WR Randy Moss NE
WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh SEA
TE Visanthe Shiancoe MIN
K Nate Kaeding SD
TM Baltimore Ravens BAL

Bench
QB Matt Cassel KC
RB Correll Buckhalter DEN
RB Fred Taylor NE
RB Mike Bell PHI
RB Javon Ringer TEN
WR Joey Galloway WAS
WR Joshua Cribbs CLE
WR Earl Bennett CHI
WR Josh Morgan SF
K David Akers PHI

I mean my starting WRs might be ok as long as none of them get hurt but my QBs are from the Raiders and the Chiefs.

I'm still not a big fan of having people < $10 going for $10. The people at the top will not be kept next year. Who is going to pay $75 for Ray Rice? I can't think of any scenario where I keep Rogers for $59, either.

garion333 wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:
This was my first auction draft and I was surprised at how fast it went. I over payed for a couple people, most notably Aaron Rogers. I thought QBs were going to go for more than they did and I like having that consistent production but with Brees going for $36, $49 for Rogers is not a bargain. With Roethlisberger I don't know what I was thinking. I don't even like Roethlisberger (even without the suspension). Overall I didn't prepare as much as I'd have liked but I'm still happy with the team.

Aaron Rogers is still a great player to have and considering that Ray Rice went for $65, AP went for $59 and CJ for $64, I think $49 for Rogers isn't terrible. I drafted 3rd in a non-ppr, qb emphasis (6pt tds) snake league and almost too him with the 3rd pick. I'm actually kicking myself a little for not.

But, this is a ppr league, so the value of qbs dips a bit.

@Jolly, I didn't realize you took both Jackson and Rice. That's a bit of a gamble, but considering you can keep both for next year @$10 they might be some of the best values from the draft.

I thought getting Rogers at $49 was a good deal when I did it. Rice and Jackson are very good deals at the prices they were picked. I do wonder what will happen with Rice when Favre is officially done. I don't see him coming back another year and T Jackson simply isn't good. I have no idea why Childress feels he is starter material.

garion333 wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:
This was my first auction draft and I was surprised at how fast it went. I over payed for a couple people, most notably Aaron Rogers. I thought QBs were going to go for more than they did and I like having that consistent production but with Brees going for $36, $49 for Rogers is not a bargain. With Roethlisberger I don't know what I was thinking. I don't even like Roethlisberger (even without the suspension). Overall I didn't prepare as much as I'd have liked but I'm still happy with the team.

Aaron Rogers is still a great player to have and considering that Ray Rice went for $65, AP went for $59 and CJ for $64, I think $49 for Rogers isn't terrible. I drafted 3rd in a non-ppr, qb emphasis (6pt tds) snake league and almost too him with the 3rd pick. I'm actually kicking myself a little for not.

But, this is a ppr league, so the value of qbs dips a bit.

@Jolly, I didn't realize you took both Jackson and Rice. That's a bit of a gamble, but considering you can keep both for next year @$10 they might be some of the best values from the draft.

I certainly wasn't planning on it, but since I have all 3 starting positions covered and a stable back up with Edelman and Vincent coming back from a suspension (read: he's healthy) in wk 3, I'm pretty happy with it. Lots of value, and maybe something to trade mid year when I have potentially 5 starting level WRs.

EvilHomer3k wrote:
I'm still not a big fan of having people < $10 going for $10.

I'm not entirely clear: too low or too high?

EvilHomer3k wrote:
The people at the top will not be kept next year.

I think I'm ok with that. Were I to run a traditional keeper league, I'd most likely go with the "previous year's round -1 (or -2)" format so first round guys wouldn't be keepers anyway. NFL contracts generally cost a little more each year and so do GWJFFL contracts.

My team:

QBs
Philip Rivers
Chad Henne
Matthew Stafford

RBs
Ryan Mathews
LeSean McCoy
Clinton Portis
Felix Jones
Chester Taylor
Brian Westbrook

WRs
Miles Austin
Jeremy Maclin
Johnny Knox
Bernard Berrian
Louis Murphy
Early Doucet
Kevin Walter

TEs
Zach Miller
Dustin Keller

K
Robbie Gould

D/ST
Pittsburgh

Lots of thoughts:

* My original QB plan was to take Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, and David Garrard. Two young passers and a steady (thanks in part to top QB rushing stats) vet. But when Philip Rivers came up and I ended up getting him at $11 somehow, the plan changed. Rivers became my vet and I took Stafford instead of Garrard, along with Henne. Two young, cheap passers with franchise QB potential going forward.

* Getting Miles Austin was an accident. Didn't expect the quick-moving bidding to come to a standstill right there. Would rather have had Calvin Johnson, who went for $1 less, but not a big deal.

* For my #2 RB, I knew I wanted either LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. McCoy came on the block first, and the high bid on him was around $10 when I fired off a $21 bid. The other bidder commented that he had no intention of going above $12 for McCoy. The point of the bid, however, was to dissuade other people from entering the bidding. A few picks later when Jamaal Charles went on the block, a bunch of people got into an incremental bidding war and pushed him all the way up to $30. McCoy has Brian Westbrook's old spot now all to himself, with absolutely no one else of significance on the depth chart (Mike Bell's the #2). Thomas Jones' presence in Kansas City (and his presence at the #1 spot of the depth chart) suggests Charles is at risk for sharing a lot of carries, at least for this year. I'm happy with my $21 bid.

* Clinton Portis has no keeper value, but $7 for 2010 was undervalued IMO. Parker and LJ are both reportedly on the bubble (especially Parker) and Portis's best past success was in Shanahan's system, where he's a natural fit.

* TE could not have gone any better. $9 total for Zach Miller and Dustin Keller.

* Besides Austin and my old PPR fill-in buddy Kevin Walter, my WR position is definitely a case of taking upside and hoping enough of them shake out.

Grumpicus wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:
I'm still not a big fan of having people < $10 going for $10.

I'm not entirely clear: too low or too high?

EvilHomer3k wrote:
The people at the top will not be kept next year.

I think I'm ok with that. Were I to run a traditional keeper league, I'd most likely go with the "previous year's round -1 (or -2)" format so first round guys wouldn't be keepers anyway. NFL contracts generally cost a little more each year and so do GWJFFL contracts.

At this time I feel it is low. Will we be forced to keep x number of players or can we drop everyone if we like?

EvilHomer3k wrote:
At this time I feel it is low. Will we be forced to keep x number of players or can we drop everyone if we like?

Nothing is forced. No arbitrary limits/requirements. Keep all you can afford or throw everyone back.

That's the one principle league rule I am very firm on fighting for. Luckily, no one seems to want it any differently, so it's all good.

Legion's team

I think you're good at QB, but I have trouble seeing where you fill out your RB and WR spots. While you are missing a clear backup/flex RB, one of Felix jones or Clinton portis will probably step up. But the step down after Miles Austin worries me on your WR roster.

edit; Then again, I really have no idea what's going on with Johnny Knox. I even drafted him in my other league, hopefully he's awesome.

How about:

0->5 Goes to $10

5+ Add $10 to price.

If a player isn't worth keeping for $10, I'm not sure why you're keeping him.

Grumpicus wrote:
Edit2: Man, I'm never going to make it to the car. So yeah, that second idea isn't going to work either. With that formula, I'd have Miles Austin (I think I picked him up for free) for the next 5 years and will still only have to pay $16 in that 5th year. I'm guessing y'all wouldn't want to see that happen.

I'm still of the opinion that these situations, if allowed, will somewhat average out. You'd be holding onto Austin cheap, I'd be holding onto Mike Sims-Walker cheap... they wouldn't average out perfectly but everyone who grabs brand new starters for cheap would end up with someone they get to keep for well under value.

It's not like it's only going to happen one time to just one lucky team. There will be a new Miles Austin that someone else lands and ends up with a bargain keeper.

I think the trick is to just make sure it doesn't get super ridiculous.

It seems like the biggest problem isn't guys who go through the auction draft, where everyone keeps future potential in mind and bids accordingly, but midseason pickups where there's not so much time to think (and where people have to be willing to discard one of their existing players to be able to participate in the market for a given player). Maybe what we need to do is add an additional inflation value to guys who were selected as free agents?

*Legion* wrote:
* For my #2 RB, I knew I wanted either LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. McCoy came on the block first, and the high bid on him was around $10 when I fired off a $21 bid. The other bidder commented that he had no intention of going above $12 for McCoy. The point of the bid, however, was to dissuade other people from entering the bidding. A few picks later when Jamaal Charles went on the block, a bunch of people got into an incremental bidding war and pushed him all the way up to $30. McCoy has Brian Westbrook's old spot now all to himself, with absolutely no one else of significance on the depth chart (Mike Bell's the #2). Thomas Jones' presence in Kansas City (and his presence at the #1 spot of the depth chart) suggests Charles is at risk for sharing a lot of carries, at least for this year. I'm happy with my $21 bid.

Yeah, that was me. I also wanted McCoy or Charles. I was only kidding about not going above $12, I probably would've gone upwards of $18 if I remember my numbers correctly, but I wasn't about to start a bidding war at $21. So your bid did exactly what it was supposed to.

That's also why I punched Calvin Johnson up to $35 (I believe it was a $9 jump). I needed a #1 wideout, dammit, so I spent a few more dollars than I had hoped for

And I hate that you got Stafford, but I couldn't take a 4th one. He's exactly the type of player I wanted to target as a keeper. Alas.

*Legion* wrote:
Maybe what we need to do is add an additional inflation value to guys who were selected as free agents?
Well we sort of naturally had that with a $200 FA budget...

Jolly Bill wrote:
If a player isn't worth keeping for $10, I'm not sure why you're keeping him.

This part is IMO nonsense. Plenty of good players went for below $10 in the auction. I got Dustin Keller for $1. I can tell you that I would definitely want to keep him for <$10.

The idea that studs are the only ones worth keeping is wrongheaded. Everyone is worth keeping if they provide more value than their keeper dollar price. If I can keep a starting TE for less than what it would cost for me to get a similar player in the auction, then I go into the auction with that many more dollars to spend elsewhere.

*Legion* wrote:
Jolly Bill wrote:
If a player isn't worth keeping for $10, I'm not sure why you're keeping him.

This part is IMO nonsense. Plenty of good players went for below $10 in the auction. I got Dustin Keller for $1. I can tell you that I would definitely want to keep him for <$10.

The idea that studs are the only ones worth keeping is wrongheaded. Everyone is worth keeping if they provide more value than their keeper dollar price.

I'm not talking about studs here. If I have a backup player worth $2 on my roster, who I'd like to have for a backup again, go for it. My thoughts are that if he is worth less than $10 to begin with, you're better off just redrafting him instead of working out crazy keeper rules so that you can keep him for less than that.

I'm not saying we should only keep studs. Just that the marginal benefit of creating rules for the <$10 guys doesn't beat the cost when all we need is another 20 seconds for you to redraft the guy at $3 or $4 anyway. The inflation you would pay to keep him would essentially be the same as other people bidding against him in open auction. If the player would go for over $10, then you should have kept him on your roster.

I see $1 to $10 players like the guys that keep signing one year contracts with the same team as a backup or role player. The owner can and will discard that player at any time, there's no loyalty there.

Grumpicus wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Maybe what we need to do is add an additional inflation value to guys who were selected as free agents?
Well we sort of naturally had that with a $200 FA budget...

The reason I disagree with this statement is because a lot of players will frankly go for $1 no matter how high the budget is.

Free agency isn't a pure 12-team market process. It's a bid only between whatever teams may be willing to chop someone off of their roster to take someone. So there's fewer people ensuring that someone goes for their appropriate value. In our auction, I tossed out bids to make sure players didn't go excessively cheaply. I could do that because if I ended up with them, it's OK, because I do have that spot to fill (hence, me getting Miles Austin). I can't do that in free agency because, besides the blind-bid style, I can't participate without cutting someone.

Ok, Here's a crazy idea for you: Incentive based inflation. The player's $ value increases each year based on their performance to your team. A couple thoughts:

1) For every week you used that player as a starter, his next year draft value increases by $1, up to a maximum of $10. Bench players do not inflate.

2) Same as above, but bench players inflate by less than your starters (each week starters increase by $1, bench increases by $.25 or something). I think I like this one better.

3) Players value increases with their average draft position each year. I like this the least, it's messier and mathematical, but I couldn't ignore it.

The more I think about this one, the more I love it.