GWJ Fantasy Keeper League mega-thread

For information on the award-winning GWJFFL leagues, see the Official GWJFFL 2009 thread.

This thread is for discussion of a secondary, keeper league.

The List of users who have expressed interest in playing in a GWJ keeper league (ordered by forum seniority):
Minase - 6 years, 8 weeks
*Legion* - 5 years, 4 weeks
Grumpicus - 5 years, 4 weeks
Pigpen - 4 years, 47 weeks
Elliottx - 3 years, 33 weeks
BlackSheep - 2 years, 23 weeks (maybe?)
kaostheory - 2 years, 5 weeks
boogle - 1 year, 46 weeks
EvilHomer3K - 1 year, 32 weeks
ukickmydog - 1 year, 30 weeks
ertic - 1 year 23 weeks (how is it you've been here that long and I've never heard of you?)
Landshrk83 - 41 weeks
FSeven - 40 weeks

We got 12. Lets do it!

How the hell do you know know how long I've been around?!

Just two years doesn't sound right at all though. This will be my third GWWWJJKLWJFFL league season. Of course, it might be right.

I'll play in both you bastard. I can do it. Since this is 'secondary' but will really be 'primary' as to my genius drafting abilities as they shine through as I pick up your Eddie Royals, Matt Fortes, and Steve Slatons with reckless abandon. Reckless abandon.

Abandon Hope Ye Who Enter Here!

I'm interested in a keeper league.

BlackSheep wrote:

How the hell do you know know how long I've been around?!

IMAGE(http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/8223/sheepk.jpg)

BlackSheep wrote:

How the hell do you know know how long I've been around?!

I've been watching you very closely.

Or I clicked on your name and scrolled down to "History", where it shows how old your account is.

but will really be 'primary' as to my genius drafting abilities as they shine through as I pick up your Eddie Royals, Matt Fortes, and Steve Slatons with reckless abandon. Reckless abandon.

Last year was a lesson: don't let picks slide just because they're so far down on the draft app's name list that you think nobody else will even see them. You'd be 95% right but that f**ker BlackSheep will scroll down as far as it takes!

EDIT: ukickmydog loses points for crappy thin non-Cleartype fonts in his screenshot.

Really real

I'm not interested in the Keeper league but i just want it to be known that I would be above legion on the member time scale. Just needed to knock him down a peg here before I do it during gameplay in the regular FF league.

To continue some of the discussion from the previous thread.

I'm all for doing an auction keeper league. I do think it makes the keeper rules a bit easier. I've never done an auction league and would like to do one. I do think you can set up rules that emulate the auction price + X% each year for determining the cost. Some leagues do it as round +1 deal. So you if you picked up a guy in round 4 you lose a 3rd round pick the next year. Round 1 picks cannot be kept. This would ensure that guys like Adrian Peterson was available the next year. One thing I like about the auction, though, is that if I really, really, really, really want to keep ADP I can pony up the cash. Auctions are probably tougher to do in an online format, though. Remember we've only got a few weeks to get the draft finished.

The keeper league I'm in is a keep 4-6 players. We do 2 supplemental rounds where people who keep 4 get to draft before those who keep 6. There are always good players that are not kept. For instance, this year, I am likely going to drop Marion Barber as he is my worst keeper on my team (though I'm trying to package him with Steve Smith or Reggie Wayne to get Fitzgerald). I like the optional keepers because it allows bad teams to get 2 rounds to shore up their numbers. We do a straight worst to first draft for the first two rounds and then do a serpentine. I think it works pretty well. Keeping fewer players is not much different than a redraft. I think you could go up to 8 players before getting into dynasty territory.

I've heard of the auction-based keeper style of "price + X%" and I've always thought it a clever idea.

It encourages people to draft for the future by buying rookies or up-and-comers at low prices, so that they can hold onto them. That's the element that is lost when you only keep a handful of players.

At the same time, it does not force everyone to keep an entire roster like a dynasty or near-dynasty league. If your team truly does suck, you can throw them all (or most of them) back and head into next year's auction with a near-full bankroll.

I'm keen on exploring this idea if other people are willing to embrace the auction concept. I especially like the auction idea because it's the opposite of what we're doing in the "really real" leagues, and that's the idea behind making a spin-off league in the first place (at least to me).

I would still be behind a dynasty league too, but I think the above idea represents some solid middle ground. But you're right: the logistics involved in an auction draft held online are the big sticking point. Fleaflicker doesn't natively support auction drafts, but we can draft outside of the software and import the results, I know that's how a lot of other online auction leagues do things.

Can I lurk or can I lurk?

A friend and I have been running a salary cap league for seven seasons. We are allowed two keepers and they must be from differing positions. This year we are rebooting the league, cutting back from 16 teams to 10.

Have never done an auction league, but I imagine it cant be to different from a salary cap league

As I expressed in the other thread, I'm very much in favor of an auction keeper league.

If FleaFlicker supports importing draft results, there are a few nice auction draft apps that could be used. I particularly like ESPN's auction interface.

OK, let's have a preliminary (non-binding!) poll about keeper league formats.

Which of these ideas do you prefer?

* An auction-draft based keeper league. Drafting is done auction-style. Teams are allowed to keep as many players as they wish from year-to-year, but each player kept subtracts the cost of that player's auction value from that draft, plus X% (10%, 25%, something like that, which is pre-determined).

* A draft-position based keeper league. Similar to auction style, but keeping a player means forfeiting your pick in the round that the player was drafted in (or, in a round + 1 style, forfeiting the pick in the round above, so keeping your 3rd round pick from last season pick means forfeiting your 2nd round selection in this year's draft)

* A dynasty league. Teams keep their entire roster heading into the next year's draft. The draft occurs, and teams cut down to the roster limit before the start of the season.

* A simple keeper league. Keep X number of players on your roster each year.

I'll go ahead and say what my preferences are, though they'll come as no surprise:

I like the auction-based and the dynasty league options.

I dig the idea of doing an auction, if for no other reason than it's different than the norm. I think the way that the auction draft economy works (it's very top-heavy) means there's a lot of opportunity for keeper strategy. I think this is somewhat less true in a draft-position based; I would expect to see fewer players kept in a draft position keeper league (especially in a round + 1 style).

I like the dynasty league, it's something I've always wanted to do, and I think there's a good hardcore group here that would be fun to dynasty league with. But I think the auction-based league is probably more practical (as long as we can deal with getting everyone to show up to the draft)

I'll do any but my preferences would be auction dynasty. None of my leagues are auction leagues and I'd love to try it.

My favorite is a draft-position based keeper league but my second favorite is the auction league, I've just never been a part of an auction league and worry about my auctioneering skills. Either one I'd be happy with though.

I tend to lean on WCOFF just because, well, they're pros at it. (Not that that makes them perfect but they've probably thought about it more than me.)

On drafting, WCOFF wrote:

2. Draft:
A. Team Salary: Each team will start with 200 auction dollars.
B. Rosters: Each team will have 20 players.
C. Nominating Procedure: Each team will nominate a player in each round in a sequential
order (team 1 through team 12 in each round). There are no rules governing the number of
players to be selected at each position. It is up to the skill and bidding strategy of each team
owner to decide.
D. Time Limit to Nominate: Each team will have 20 seconds to nominate a player. Each
nominating team must put a bid with their nomination. Otherwise, the nominating team will
automatically be credited with a $1 opening bid on the player whom they nominated. If a team
does not nominate a player in the allotted time, that teams is penalized $1 from their team salary.
Additionally, the team is passed over until the next round.
E. Nominating Ends: The minimum and maximum roster size for each team is 20 players.
Once a team has reached a roster of 20 players, that team can no longer nominate players. Once
a team has run out of money, that team can no longer nominate players.
F. Bidding: After a player is nominated the verbal bidding process starts. The bidding process is
an open process and there is no sequence for the bids. Team owners may bid at any time. In the
event of simultaneous bids, the auction draft facilitator will determine who was first. Bids are
made in $1 increments (no cents). To end the bidding, a facilitator will say: “Going once….
going twice… Sold to team x for y auction dollars.” Team owners can still declare a bid before
the facilitator reaches “sold.” Once the facilitator begins the word “sold,” the bidding is
completed for that player.
G. Bid Limits: During the draft, team owners are required to keep enough auction draft dollars
available in their team salary to be able to bid at least $1 per remaining roster spot. If a team
drops below the minimum of $1 per remaining roster spot, and the auction draft facilitators do
not notice the violation, there will be no reversal of the player awarded, and no punitive measure.
H: Tied Bids: In the event of a tied bid, the team who bid first wins the player. As an example,
3 teams each with one dollar remaining bid on a player. The team who bid first (in this case the
nominating team) will be awarded the player.

On keeping, WCOFF wrote:

5. Keeper Rules:
a) Each participant in the WCOFF Keeper League may retain four (4) players from one year to
the next deemed as (“keepers”). An individual player may be kept for as many as 3 consecutive
seasons from the date of initial drafting. After three years, the player would return to the
league’s player pool. If a keeper from the prior year is droppd mid-season and acquired by
during the free agency process, their eligible keeper years do not re-start. For example, if Tom
Brady was drafted in 2007 and kept into 2008, but dropped after his injury and acquired during
the free agency process – he could be kept for 2009, but will re-enter the draft no later than 2010.
b) For drafts after the initial year, any player deemed a “keeper” will cost the same amount as the
player was drafted, even if not drafted by the current owner. If a player was undrafted by any
team, he will cost the owner $15 of Auction Dollars if he is kept. If a player was drafted (or kept
from the prior year), his cost will be the greater of his draft/keeper value or $15. All players on a
roster at the end of the season are eligible to be kept. Prior to the auction, an owner’s available
auction dollars will be reduced by the cost of their keepers.
c) Keepers must be identified in the following manner: List of up to 6 possible keepers
submitted by July 15th. This list will be shared with all owners in the league. Owners must
reduce their official keeper list to 4 or less by August 15th. If an owner does not identify his
keepers, GridIron will select the players to be kept for the upcoming year. Owners may change
their Keeper selections at anytime prior to a deadline; however, after that deadline, no changes to
Keeper selections will be permitted.
Example: If an owner drafted Tony Romo for $12 in the 2008 Keeper Draft, he would cost that
owner $12 in the 2009 draft if he is kept. If he was dropped during the season and acquired
during free agency, he could be kept for the 2009 draft at a cost of $15 auction dollars. In this
case, Romo could remain a keeper through the 2010 season before returning to the draft.

Personally, I see turnover, especially in the first couple years. I think the methods listed above will handle said turnover better than a full dynasty version.

I believe someone has already mentioned it but ESPN FFL supports auction drafts. We can use their draft interface and then migrate the results to FleaFlicker if we so desire.

I like the percentage based auction league idea the best, but I think that the WCOFF keeper rules might work if we are expecting turnover in the first few years.

I think the auction value + percentage would shift the league more toward the dynasty end of the spectrum, which is a good thing to me.

I like the concept of auction drafts, but with a lot of us unfamiliar with them, I worry that it will take an extra long time and will favor those who are more familiar with the format.

I'm especially worried about the second part seeing as this is a keeper league.

My big worry with an auction is spending too much or too little on players. I don't want to have $30 after 4 rounds and I don't want to have $100 left over after all is said and done.

I've gone ahead and created a FleaFlicker league for, at the moment, mostly organizational purposes. If you want to sign up, go to http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/showL... and use "HoldMe09" as the league password. *Legion* will be in charge of who gets in (or gets to stay) or not. I'm just pushing the paperwork on this one.

I'm with kaos, I like the idea of doing an auction draft, but I'm hesitant to do it with a keeper league since the first draft is a huge focal point and will really favor those who are more familiar with it. Basically if we do an auction, I would prefer it not to be a dynasty so that we have a chance at some turnover in the roster if we completely bomb the first draft because we don't know the system. If we do a snake, I wouldn't mind a dynasty.

kaostheory wrote:

I like the concept of auction drafts, but with a lot of us unfamiliar with them, I worry that it will take an extra long time and will favor those who are more familiar with the format.

I'm especially worried about the second part seeing as this is a keeper league.

My big worry with an auction is spending too much or too little on players. I don't want to have $30 after 4 rounds and I don't want to have $100 left over after all is said and done.

There are sites out there that list Average Auction Values. They'll give you an idea as to how much you should spend on certain players, and keeping those in mind should keep you from going broke too soon or finishing up with too much money.

Using ESPN to run the auction and then importing the teams into FleaFlicker is the way to go.

Landshrk83 wrote:

I think the auction value + percentage would shift the league more toward the dynasty end of the spectrum, which is a good thing to me.

What I like is that it doesn't force anything, but facilitates every possibility. Wanna keep most of your team? You can, and enter the draft with just pennies but a mostly-full roster. Wanna strip your roster down bare and start fresh? You can, and you'll have a full bankroll in the next auction.

I think it also works well with turnover. A new incoming owner can throw everyone (or mostly everyone) back from his current roster and draft "his" team fresh with that full bankroll.

Also, the "value + X%" is a simple mechanic that pretty much takes care of everything. No need to track and enforce how many years Player X has been kept, etc. The only information we need in any given year to handle the keeper aspect are the draft & keeper values from the previous draft. From an administrative standpoint, I think it's a lot more straightforward than WCOFF's way.

There I go again, pitching my choice pretty hard. Well, it looks like dynasty is pretty much off the table, and I suppose that's the right call. I'm still (clearly) a big fan of the "choose how much you keep" economy-dictated style, but I certainly won't shout down a pure "keep X number of players" approach either.

*Legion* wrote:

Also, the "value + X%" is a simple mechanic that pretty much takes care of everything. No need to track and enforce how many years Player X has been kept, etc. The only information we need in any given year to handle the keeper aspect is the draft & keeper values from the previous draft. From an administrative standpoint, I think it's a lot more straightforward than WCOFF's way.

While I like "value + X%", I think it would need more than that. Say I pick up a player like say, Tom Brady in round 19 of my draft for $1 to handcuff the amazing Drew Bledsoe. The next year I keep Brady for $1.10? The year after it's $1.21?

WCOFF handles this in 2 ways.
1) Any player who was kept last year and is kept again is valued at either $15 or last year's salary, whichever is higher. ($1 drafted, $1 kept year one, $15 kept year two [#s assume their rules, not "value + x%"])
2) Players can only be kept for 3 years. ($1, $1, $15, $15, back to the draft)

I would probably support something more like ($1, $10, $20, $30, $40, $50, $60, etc) I think it would need to be more generalized for other situations.

*Legion* wrote:
BlackSheep wrote:

How the hell do you know know how long I've been around?!

I've been watching you very closely.

Or I clicked on your name and scrolled down to "History", where it shows how old your account is.

but will really be 'primary' as to my genius drafting abilities as they shine through as I pick up your Eddie Royals, Matt Fortes, and Steve Slatons with reckless abandon. Reckless abandon.

Last year was a lesson: don't let picks slide just because they're so far down on the draft app's name list that you think nobody else will even see them. You'd be 95% right but that f**ker BlackSheep will scroll down as far as it takes!

Some of us do our homework. And I love to scroll.

As far as auction goes, I'm easy. I'll do whatever. I may not do it well, but that gives me an excuse to go nutso and start spending $1 on the remaining 10 slots on my team after I run completely out of money buying players as if they were mortgages in California.

Keepers: For the record, I posted the WCOFF version mostly as a supporting argument for "I'd rather not go full-on dynasty" so, beyond that, I'm game for whatever and the WCOFF way is just one option.

Draft: I could easily go either way but I'm interested in an auction draft simply because I haven't done one. I think I'd like it for all of the reasons outlined here and elsewhere though I'm worried about how long the actual drafting process might take. If we try it and it goes well, I'll even propose it for GWJFFL(1) 2010.

kaostheory wrote:

WCOFF handles this in 2 ways.
1) Any player who was kept last year and is kept again is valued at either $15 or last year's salary, whichever is higher. ($1 drafted, $1 kept year one, $15 kept year two [#s assume their rules, not "value + x%"])
2) Players can only be kept for 3 years. ($1, $1, $15, $15, back to the draft)

A couple minor details.

1) A player can only be kept for three years total.

An individual player may be kept for as many as 3 consecutive seasons from the date of initial drafting. After three years, the player would return to the league’s player pool. For example, if Tom Brady was drafted in 2007 ... will re-enter the draft no later than 2010.

2) This one isn't as clear but I'm fairly certain that the second year costs the greater of $15 or draft value.

For drafts after the initial year, any player deemed a “keeper” will cost the same amount as the player was drafted, even if not drafted by the current owner. If a player was undrafted by any team, he will cost the owner $15 of Auction Dollars if he is kept. If a player was drafted (or kept from the prior year), his cost will be the greater of his draft/keeper value or $15.

So based on my reading, your example above should read:
2007: $01
2008: $15
2009: $15
2010: back to the draft

kaostheory wrote:

While I like "value + X%", I think it would need more than that. Say I pick up a player like say, Tom Brady in round 19 of my draft for $1 to handcuff the amazing Drew Bledsoe. The next year I keep Brady for $1.10? The year after it's $1.21

Well, for one, there are no cents, only whole dollars. Everything is rounded up to next highest whole dollar.

Also, "X" need not be a single value. It can be like a progressive tax except in reverse. Auction values of $1-5 could have the highest percentage increase, and the top-end stuff can have a reasonably low one (since the elite players are already at "break the bank" levels). It'd be easy to have "brackets" for X%.

Or we can adopt the "keeper floor" idea from the WCOFF for the low-end values, and percentage the rest of the way. Anyone below $X is kept at $X the next year, and anyone above $X is +Y%.

WCOFF handles this in 2 ways.
1) Any player who was kept last year and is kept again is valued at either $15 or last year's salary, whichever is higher. ($1 drafted, $1 kept year one, $15 kept year two [#s assume their rules, not "value + x%"])
2) Players can only be kept for 3 years. ($1, $1, $15, $15, back to the draft)

There's a couple of things I don't like about this:
* Having to keep track of how long everyone has been kept. It's something we don't have to worry about in the other setup. I'm lazy and I favor that which will keep administrative tasks simple. Especially since most of this will have to be performed "by hand". I like having only one set of "state" variables instead of two.
* The value + X% exerts its effects every year. In the WCOFF setup, if we draft this year, it'll be four (EDIT: three - see Grumpy below) years before the limiting factor exerts any effect on the league.

Like I said above, the keeper floor idea might be a good idea for bringing the bargain bin keepers up to a keeper value where the percentage can take over going forward.

I like what you brought to the table - this is good batting-around of ideas.

I read that differently. But I think you're right.

I lean more towards not being able to keep a player because the salary is more than $181 ($182 leaves you unable to fill your roster) than setting some arbitrary time limit. Paying one player even $50 is a pretty huge amount of money (1/4 of your cap), I would like to set the increases such that 3-4 years (from a real $1 sleeper, ie: Marques Colston or Tom Brady) gets you to the point where you feel like you're better off putting him back in the draft and hoping you can outbid everyone else.

I imagine next year, most of the best players will be kept, but the year after that, a lot of them will be too pricey and put back in the pool and from there, players will cycle, being kept once or twice and put back.

So a player like Peyton Manning will have made it to the draft 5 or 6 times in his career (though one team could end up drafting him all 6 times if they consistently outbid the competition)

*Legion* wrote:

Or we can adopt the "keeper floor" idea from the WCOFF for the low-end values, and percentage the rest of the way. Anyone below $X is kept at $X the next year, and anyone above $X is +Y%.

I'd go with this one... and have done a little messing around trying to figure out Y. My first swing puts it at 30%. This is based on this list (note values are based on a $200 cap) and the fact that a $15 floor and a 30% annual increase means that you can hold on to a player for about 5 or 6 years if you draft him as a rookie for less than $11 ($12 * 130% = $16). A ten-year progression on said player looks like this:

1 $11 ($11.00)
2 $15 ($15.00) keeper floor
3 $20 ($19.50)
4 $25 ($25.35)
5 $33 ($32.96)
6 $43 ($42.84)
7 $56 ($55.69)
8 $72 ($72.40)
9 $94 ($94.12)
10 $122 ($122.36)

That's just my two cents. I haven't given it any deep thought, really, but I figure it's a starting point. The important variables are 1) the floor , 2) the annual increase, and 3) how long you want a true sleeper to be able to be kept on one team with no competition to keep him. I went with a target of 5-ish years since that's approximately the average length of an NFL contract. Feel free to open a spreadsheet and come up with your own ideas.

Edit: This is not a response to kaostheory's post; we were typing at the same time.

Running some spreadsheets, I like 30% as the increase.

I think the base ($10/$15/$20) depends on how many keepers we want a team to have as well as how long we want players to be kept for.

Looking at the website Grump linked, $20 seems pretty high, which would likely limit your keepers (as far as WR, QB, etc are concerned), but would be an absolute steal for RB. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were all rookies last year and likely priced at less than the $15 it would have cost to put them at $20 for this year (2 of this years' rookies are right about $15), but are valued at over $30 on the open market.

Maybe we could do something like set the floor differently for different positions? $10 for TE, $15 for QB/WR/DEF, $20 for RB?