Castro stepping down

In the last couple days I've been reading a bunch of different opinions on Castro. Do you guys think that if it wasn't for the embargo that Cuba would have been a "successful" socialist country?

Barab wrote:

In the last couple days I've been reading a bunch of different opinions on Castro. Do you guys think that if it wasn't for the embargo that Cuba would have been a "successful" socialist country?

I think it is far more likely that, in the absence of the embargo, Cuba would have gone to market reforms, developed a middle class, and eventually that middle class would create the democratic pressure to transform Cuba into a liberal democracy. Such is the nature of organic political development.

Paleocon wrote:

I think it is far more likely that, in the absence of the embargo, Cuba would have gone to market reforms, developed a middle class, and eventually that middle class would create the democratic pressure to transform Cuba into a liberal democracy. Such is the nature of organic political development.

I tend to agree. The embargo is a bad idea.

Quintin_Stone wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I think it is far more likely that, in the absence of the embargo, Cuba would have gone to market reforms, developed a middle class, and eventually that middle class would create the democratic pressure to transform Cuba into a liberal democracy. Such is the nature of organic political development.

I tend to agree. The embargo is a bad idea.

You? Agreeing with me? That's something we don't see everyday.

Paleocon wrote:

You? Agreeing with me? That's something we don't see everyday. ;)

I know! I looked out the window to make sure the sky was the proper color. So far it doesn't look like I slipped into an alternate dimension, but you might want to do the same on your end.

Angltui thryyyux, Quintin! Gbbbrtpssssh!

Robear wrote:

Angltui thryyyux, Quintin! Gbbbrtpssssh!

Gah! Time to reverse that ancient ritual.

Quintin_Stone wrote:
Robear wrote:

Angltui thryyyux, Quintin! Gbbbrtpssssh!

Gah! Time to reverse that ancient ritual.

Kklataaa, barataa, necktie, um, nickle, um....

Don't forget lads, that as long as the embargo was in place, Castro could blame all his ills on the US. It made for the perfect scapegoat for whatever action he took.

Axon wrote:

Don't forget lads, that as long as the embargo was in place, Castro could blame all his ills on the US. It made for the perfect scapegoat for whatever action he took.

Yup, and when a US president opened his big mouth about the treatment of Cuban prisoners, he opened the doors and sent all the pedophiles to Miami.

Paleocon wrote:

Yup, and when a US president opened his big mouth about the treatment of Cuban prisoners, he opened the doors and sent all the pedophiles to Miami.

And thanks to that, we got this:

IMAGE(http://www.nicekicks.com/images/scarface-movie-poster.jpg)

Fair deal!

Two articles today in El Nuevo Herald (in Spanish), both dealing with the tumultuous times in Cuba. The juxtaposition of these articles confirms the planned path for Cuba's transition to a "chinese" model of economic liberalization coupled with political repression.

The first one describes the presumed next package of reforms by the Raul Castro government. Unlike the previous ones which were relevant for only a small part of the population -the lifting of the ban on sales of cellular phones, computers and DVD players and the elimination of the tourist apartheid- these new measures will have an impact for a larger segment. More importantly, they signal the willingness of the government to eliminate irrational and politically-motivated prohibitions.

These new measures are: allowing Cubans to buy and rent real estate freely, allowing the sale of cars, eliminating the restrictions of relocations inside the country and eliminating the white card; the permission that Cubans must obtain in order to travel abroad. (And there are rumors that

None of these prohibitions made economic sense and they were only in place to keep the illusion of equality and the stringent control over the population that are hallmarks of the regime. Particularly unpopular was the prohibition of relocation -somebody living in Santiago de Cuba was forbidden from relocating to Havana- which created a deep chasm between those living in cities and those in the countryside. That Raul is willing to do away with measures that were once the pillars of Fidel's tyrannical equalitarianism would seem to mark a change of course towards a true transition.

But in case you were naive enough to believe the leopard has changed his spots, here's another set of images coming from Havana.

IMAGE(http://bp3.blogger.com/_CMtS9Ed-pDM/SA0AITLjRwI/AAAAAAAACHk/w3c31tem1F4/s400/Picture+1.png)
These are the Ladies In White, wifes and mothers of political prisoners, being dragged towards a police bus by female members of the police (in gray uniforms). Their crime was to attempt to deliver a letter to the Interior Minister, requesting the release of political prisoners.

I have talked to people who until a few weeks ago didn't know that a Cuban was forbidden from legally owned a cellular phone, yet now these same people tell me Raul is leading a true transition. I know Cubans abroad who are giddy about buying a cellular phone or a DVD player for their families. I tell them it's a fantasy. That it's not about a Cuban being able to buy a cellular phone, but about a Cuban entrepeneur being able to start a cellular company. Until this happens, we are just catching up in Cuba.

And I worry that in a few months the Ladies In White will be seen as just an obstacle on the way to the shiny new stores.

http://miamiandbeyond.blogspot.com/2...

CRAP! Now I won't be able to impress them with my designer clothes and fabulous next century gadgets!

So what's the outlook? Any chance of a revolution ?

Outlook is the same as it has been for almost 50 years. They stay as they are and we continue the embargo.

IMAGE(http://bp0.blogger.com/_AzFF_lHQoh0/SA2xGZQMxjI/AAAAAAAAGuY/bw9thSTBS8I/s400/morin.jpg)