X-Box doomed, or is this guy craker's

This is from PCmag.com:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759...

It doesn't mention the rapid growth of Live!, so he
may really be missing the boat.

But...

Wow.. I''m dumber for reading that article...

I want the 5 minutes of my life lost back.

I highly doubt that MS according to the writer will dump the Xbox franchise. Even if the MS made bad decisions in the past, there certainly no need to stop with X. It is slowly gaining ground, and MS seems to be here to stay with it.

..and I also would like my 5 minutes back.

Not quite sure what you mean by that, but
hopefully you mean he''s off is rocker and
it was all gobblygook.(therefore a waste
of your time). Unfortunately I got this link
off of several reputable on-line mags. But most
say he''s a bit ''out there'' sometimes.

I''m not an MS fan, but this guy is waaaay out on a limb. I don''t see this happening at all.
Robear

Heh - I love these rumormonging stories based on absolutely nothing but speculation. The more I read it, the less sense this one made:

1. The difference between the XBox and the products MS abandoned is that the XBox is a major strategic initiative for the company. The others were small, strange ventures that rated a big ""huh?"" by everyone outside the company.

2.

Microsoft spends precious little resources on promoting the game console, and while there are plans for a next-generation system (complete with a new IBM GPU and possibly no hard drive), it won''t arrive any time this year.

Billions of dollars spent on promoting the XBox, buying Rare to produce titles for it, etc., apparently mean nothing to this guy.

3.

If Microsoft was truly serious about the gaming hardware market, it would be working on or already have introduced a Gameboy competitor.

Whaaaaa...? How does this make ANY more sense than the XBox?! He gives absolutely no support for this statement.

4.

This isn''t like the Windows OS where tens of millions of people are already entrenched as users, so people are more likely to switch if their needs aren''t met.

Yes - they''re going to switch to the other consoles that play XBox games and have the XBox Live! service. Oh, wait...

Again..I want my 5 minutes back..

And this only proves you need precious little to be an online journalist.

For the record, XBox just outsold PS2 for the first time ever. I don''t think the X Box is going anywhere, but that''s just my opinion.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/05...

Citing NPD numbers, Microsoft declares its console had a 51-percent market share in April 2004.
In the time before E3, many analysts were saying that, as a result of its $149 price drop, the Xbox had begun to outsell the PlayStation 2 in the US American Technology Research analyst P.J. McNealy told CBS Marketwatch that Microsoft''s console sold 270,000 units during the month, compared to 200,000 PS2s and 100,000 Nintendo GameCubes.

Today, Microsoft echoed McNealy''s assertion, announcing that the Xbox was indeed America''s top-selling console in April. In a press release, Microsoft claimed the Xbox captured 51 percent of the US console market in the month following the March 30 price drop, with sales up 135 percent by volume compared to 2003. Comparatively, PlayStation 2 sales declined 29 percent to hit a 32-percent share, while the Nintendo GameCube sales dropped 5 percent to a 17-percent market share.

Curiously, Microsoft didn''t give specific sales numbers as McNealy did. However, the company did claim all its figures were from NPD, the top American game-market research firm whose studies are the industry standard. Microsoft also cited European data from GfK and ChartTrack, NPD European equivalents, which said the Xbox''s market share increased from 23 to 26 percent in April in the UK, France, and Germany combined.

""This marks the first time ever that Sony has been knocked off the leaderboard by another console in this generation,"" boasted Microsoft''s release, which went on to list various notable Xbox events at E3 2004.

However, questions remain about the longevity of the Xbox''s rise in sales. When its price dropped to $99 last fall, the GameCube enjoyed a similar boost, also outselling the PlayStation 2 for a short time. Although, some analysts think the Xbox may see a more long-term gain in market share, due to exclusives such as Ninja Gaiden and Halo 2 as well as the recently announced deal to bring Electronic Arts'' mega-popular online games to Xbox Live.

For the record, XBox just outsold PS2 for the first time ever. I don''t think the X Box is going anywhere, but that''s just my opinion.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/05/26 ... 99369.html

GC out sold the PS2 last year after its price drop.

It is true that there is a lot of money to be made by displacing the GBA as the handheld to have, but it is also true that the XBOX is step one on the way to the set-top-box holy grail, which has infinitely more potential for profit.

Speaking of the set-top-box holy grail, I always giggle to myself when I read/hear about that or, even moreso, convergence.

Personally, despite the lip service paid to convergence by so many pundits and tech journalists, I don''t really think people - Joe User, your neighbor whose VCR no longer blinks 12:00, but only because he found the electrical tape - want convergence.

As a techie/developer/codemonkey, it sure sounds cool.
As a user, what a freakin'' nightmare.
For example, TV/VCR combos. You ever tried to open one up and clean the heads? How about getting a part replaced or something repaired?
There''s a certain level of convergence that is good - VCR+DVDRecorder or satellite tuner+tivo.
Then there''s the pie-in-the-sky target of a single box that handles all of your entertainment needs. Not for me. If my DVD Player breaks, I''d still like to be able to watch VHS tapes. Or satellite. Or play a game. Or listen to music. Or surf the web.

Dear god please don''t give an all-in-one solution. Give me several inexpensive, well-built, dependable components that ""just work"" and do so independently(for the most part).

That''s just my opinion, maybe I''m a luddite.

"Ulairi" wrote:
For the record, XBox just outsold PS2 for the first time ever. I don''t think the X Box is going anywhere, but that''s just my opinion.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/05/26 ... 99369.html

GC out sold the PS2 last year after its price drop.

Dude, we already know you are a nintendo fanboy. That doesn''t negate the fact that the Xbox is gainging ground.

Microsoft not acting like it wants to exit XBox market.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/26/comm...

Xbox/PC this actually could be a bad thing... but then comes a question, how exactly you would have Xbox play PC games where recently, software makers battle the piracy with CD Protections, unbelievable amount registry entries and intended hardware incompatibility. (...did I leave anything out?)

"mateo" wrote:
"Ulairi" wrote:
For the record, XBox just outsold PS2 for the first time ever. I don''t think the X Box is going anywhere, but that''s just my opinion.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/05/26 ... 99369.html

GC out sold the PS2 last year after its price drop.

Dude, we already know you are a nintendo fanboy. That doesn''t negate the fact that the Xbox is gainging ground.

No. I''m just pointing out that since the Xbox out sold the PS2 in one month doesn''t mean it is on its way to taken the crown from Sony. Sony will out sell the Xbox this month.

I thought the point was very clear.

No. I''m just pointing out that since the Xbox out sold the PS2 in one month doesn''t mean it is on its way to taken the crown from Sony. Sony will out sell the Xbox this month.
However, questions remain about the longevity of the Xbox''s rise in sales. When its price dropped to $99 last fall, the GameCube enjoyed a similar boost, also outselling the PlayStation 2 for a short time. Although, some analysts think the Xbox may see a more long-term gain in market share, due to exclusives such as Ninja Gaiden and Halo 2 as well as the recently announced deal to bring Electronic Arts'' mega-popular online games to Xbox Live.

However, questions remain about the longevity of the Xbox''s rise in sales. When its price dropped to $99 last fall, the GameCube enjoyed a similar boost, also outselling the PlayStation 2 for a short time. Although, some analysts think the Xbox may see a more long-term gain in market share, due to exclusives such as Ninja Gaiden and Halo 2 as well as the recently announced deal to bring Electronic Arts'' mega-popular online games to Xbox Live.

Doesn''t mean anything. EA Sports will boost Xbox Live sales but I''m not so sure people will pick up an Xbox just for that.

Halo 2 will jump sales but so will Metriod Prime 2 and REsident Evil 4.

It does help to read...

"fangblackbone" wrote:

It does help to read...

I did read. I doubt it will last more than a few months and that will kick back up in the fall.

This guy is completely right, the Xbox will be abandoned about 3 years after Xbox 2 launches.

Convergence is different these days because we are getting to a point where enetertainment of all forms is on the same media.....DVD = music, movies and games..etc.

Similar to what Sony is going to do with UMD...
But TV/VCR combos due suck...no arguement there.

TEH XBOX WIL FAIIL BCUZ ITS SOOOO HUGE1!!!!!1 LOLOLOL

Keep dreaming. Its advantages are finally being realized by the masses. It won''t drive sony or nintendo out of business, but it certainly won''t fade into nothing anytime soon. It''s a gaming platform that is here to stay and is my personal preference. MS is giving consumers what they want in this instance, and it''s starting to show.

I dunno. The Xbox has lost Microsoft well over a billion dollars already. Unless Sony completely drops the ball with the Playstation 3, or some other miracle happens, I can very well see Microsoft dropping out of the race after the next cycle. Why continue taking huge losses over some side-venture?

The XBox _console_ is a loss leader.
MS makes their money on things like Live and licensing from publishers/developers, not on the machine.

It''s like the old razor/razorblade ploy - give away the razor, make a bundle on the replacement blades, albeit in smaller increments.

I am well aware of how the console business works, thankyouverymuch. But as far as I''ve understood it (although I''ll readily admit I haven''t been studying the numbers that intently), the entire *venture* is one billion in the red.

"duckilama" wrote:

The XBox _console_ is a loss leader.
MS makes their money on things like Live and licensing from publishers/developers, not on the machine.

It''s like the old razor/razorblade ploy - give away the razor, make a bundle on the replacement blades, albeit in smaller increments.

The Xbox project that includes everything has yet to make Microsoft one cent of profit. They are still in the red with it.

"duckilama" wrote:

The XBox _console_ is a loss leader.
MS makes their money on things like Live and licensing from publishers/developers, not on the machine.

It''s like the old razor/razorblade ploy - give away the razor, make a bundle on the replacement blades, albeit in smaller increments.

You''re right that it''s supposed to work that way - MS has been losing on the entire XBox operation, though, royalties/etc. included. The Register talks about it here.

Ok, I''m not trying to be snarky here, but there''s a contradiction in your post...

"Alien Love Gardener" wrote:

I am well aware of how the console business works, thankyouverymuch...

... the entire *venture* is one billion in the red.

A loss leader is supposed to lose money.
And shouldn''t necessarily be analyzed as an ""entire venture"" to determine its success.

Another good MS example is IE. I doubt anyone has numbers on just how much MS ""lost"" on IE. But eventually, it boosts multiple other areas of their business.

I''m not impugning your understanding of the console business one bit. I''m just saying that this stuff is moutains from molehills. MS has an insane _cash_ reserve - cash. Cold hard currency, liquid and in the bank. Spending a bit less than 2% of that to take market from two healthy incumbents is small potatoes - I know, $1 billion doesn''t seem small, but in perspective, that''s a pretty low cost for MS. Add to that the credibility MS has built among console gamers and the next generation becomes a lot more interesting, and with a lot more potential to profit.

That pile of cash allows MS to operate a lot more like a Japanese business - and that''s a good thing to me as an investor - I don''t care if you lost a bit of money in the recent 3 months, 6, or even 12, as long as you have a solid plan for the next 60(sixty) months and 120(one hundred twenty) months for how that ""loss"" is actually an investment. Japanese businesses operate with 10, 20, 50-year plans. Most US companies(and investment journalists/analysts) look at the most recent 3 months and think everything is rosy or the sky is falling.

$1b loss or $1b invested?
I say invested. Just because they have to report snapshot-in-time numbers to the SEC doesn''t necessarily provide a good picture of the business unit or its health/illness.

That''s just my opinion. I may be wrong.

I see where you''re coming from, but the difference between IE and the Xbox is that IE helps their core business, and the Xbox does not. It might be one billion invested, but it''s one billion invested in something that will be marginal compared to their OS monopoly.

Greg K at GameSpot once mentioned that MS would be more than happy to pay the money it''s invested in the Xbox just to get the good PR it''s gotten from the console. MS actually has a fan base now - something it''s never had. Instead of being the most hated company on earth, there''s now millions of people that think their okay guys.

The Xbox has greatly improved their image, which is very very valuable to a company.

On the whole ""dropping out"" thing, if you were to read ""Opening the Xbox"", you''d find out why MS (or Bill Gates, to be more specific) plan on going on with this to the bitter end.

Rewind the clock about four years, and the book puts you into a conference room with Bill G and the head of Sony. MS was already well aware that the PS2 was going to take off like wild fire, so they called this little meeting.

After the chit chat, Bill G said something to the effect of ""So, will there be windows software in the PS2?"", and the Sony head and his VP all started laughing, loudly, at Bill Gates.

If you''ve never heard, Bill Gates is a real hot head (I didn''t know that until I read that book), and LOST IT on the Sony leader. Started yelling and had to basically be removed from the building. The book didn''t quote what he said, but I can guess. Can you?

This isn''t matter of lets to make a new product to make money, it''s a matter of (and this is quoted in the book) - ""Sony must be contained"".

I see where you''re coming from, but the difference between IE and the Xbox is that IE helps their core business, and the Xbox does not. It might be one billion invested, but it''s one billion invested in something that will be marginal compared to their OS monopoly.

unless of course the Xbox investment allows them to extend that monopoly.

Microsoft is in the PC/Console business for the long haul. They have alot more to gain than lose in their minds.

Domination of the Living Room allows them to extend their monopoly even further.

Currently the Desktop OS/ Office Application Departments are stangnating.. they (MS) are projecting little growth in those areas..

What they see as a huge potential market is the Console/Set Top market.

So think about where they will be most forward thinking.

Rewind the clock about four years, and the book puts you into a conference room with Bill G and the head of Sony. MS was already well aware that the PS2 was going to take off like wild fire, so they called this little meeting.

After the chit chat, Bill G said something to the effect of ""So, will there be windows software in the PS2?"", and the Sony head and his VP all started laughing, loudly, at Bill Gates.

If you''ve never heard, Bill Gates is a real hot head (I didn''t know that until I read that book), and LOST IT on the Sony leader. Started yelling and had to basically be removed from the building. The book didn''t quote what he said, but I can guess. Can you?

This isn''t matter of lets to make a new product to make money, it''s a matter of (and this is quoted in the book) - ""Sony must be contained"".

This is dead on.... Microsoft''s greatest fear is that consoles/set top boxes become so powerful that they replace PC and PC OS''s as the way people interact with the intraweb/software/etc..

They will never get out until that fear is either completely unfounded or they dominate.

They cannot risk getting locked out of the market in fear that it may one day render WINTEL meaningless.