GWJ Conference Call Episode 221

Conference Call

rabbit Discovers Mass Effect 2, Elysium Plays With Kinect, We Revisit Our Predictions From 2010, Predict 2011, Read Your Emails and more!

This week Shawn, Julian, Elysium and Jonathan make their bold predictions for 2011 and revisit their 100%, completely accurate predictions from 2010. Completely.

To contact us, email [email protected]! Send us your thoughts on the show, pressing issues you want to talk about or whatever else is on your mind. You can even send a 30 second audio question or comment (MP3 format please) if you're so inclined. You can also submit a question or comment call in to our voicemail line at (612) 284-4563!

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Mass Effect 2
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Show credits

Music credits: 

Intro/Outtro Music - Ian Dorsch, Willowtree Audioworks

Comments

rabbit Discovers Mass Effect 2

welcome to 340 days ago?? i'm intrigued.

Time to link the 2010 predictions.

Mine weren't particularly adventurous or all accurate.

On 2011, I think there will be at most rumours about the next generation consoles, things like chip manufacturers or designers leaking that they're got a certain contract, or someone buying or licensing a technology.

That said, the other side of the coin, software, I can't recall any details of any software house indicating they're working on next generation games. If new consoles were to launch within the next few years, game projects would be likely starting around now. I'd say a games series that wraps up soon, like Mass Effect which releases it's last chapter this year, I think the development team from that would move onto better technology to give them a grasp on the next generation, perhaps to make a game that scales across like titles that released across PS2/Xbox and PS3/360. That said, I don't think the challenge of the next generation will be the technology so much as the ballooning development costs and managing it so you've got a successful product at the end.

That's not really a 2011 prediction, but there may be clues to look out for in 2011 that are interesting to know for 2012-2014

My Bold 2011 Prediction:

Valve will announce "Orange Box 2" (maybe bringing back The Black Box moniker) which will include Half-Life Episode 3, Counter-Strike 2 and Black-Mesa Source.

PaladinTom wrote:

My Bold 2011 Prediction:

Valve will announce "Orange Box 2" (maybe bringing back The Black Box moniker) which will include Half-Life Episode 3, Counter-Strike 2 and Black-Mesa Source.

And around the world, nerd's heads will explode.

Someone has to keep Rabbit away from that apple flavoured koolaid. =) He keeps confusing gaming and iGaming - the two concepts are barely related.

AndrewA wrote:

Someone has to keep Rabbit away from that apple flavoured koolaid. =) He keeps confusing gaming and iGaming - the two concepts are barely related.

I disagree.

I NEVER played casual games before on pc or xbox, and I've played a ton of them this past year on my iPad. Although they are totally different types of games, you can't deny they now genuinely compete for mind share along with television, movies, books, board games, etc.

I never touched these games before because there were so many better (imo) experiences to be had when I sat down to play a game. Now, I can kill a few minutes playing Words, Tetris, Bejewelled, or Angry Birds. When I fire up my pc or console I'm there for a couple of hours for the more in depth experience.

PaladinTom wrote:

I never touched these games before because there were so many better (imo) experiences to be had when I sat down to play a game. Now, I can kill a few minutes playing Words, Tetris, Bejewelled, or Angry Birds. When I fire up my pc or console I'm there for a couple of hours for the more in depth experience.

Despite your initial statement of "I disagree", I think that you just proved my point!

Your casual gaming and "core gaming" (for lack of a better term) do not intersect.

iGaming might compete with things like Facebook, Kongregate, and so on... but it doesn't compete with the console manufacturers.

AndrewA wrote:

iGaming might compete with things like Facebook, Kongregate, and so on... but it doesn't compete with the console manufacturers.

For the top tier games - I agree with you. However, I can see myself playing a lot less mediocre console games over the long term in favor of top quality iOS games.

I read an article recently that the movie industry is considering scaling back the amount of films produced in favor of better quality films because less people are going to the movies these days overall. This is an interesting analog to games, because there is indeed competition if I'm buying less Xbox games in favor of sitting on the couch with my iPad.

I'm still buying the Starcrafts and the Dragon Ages, but I'm less inclined to buy a $60 Xbox game that I may only play for two hours.

PaladinTom wrote:

I'm still buying the Starcrafts and the Dragon Ages, but I'm less inclined to buy a $60 Xbox game that I may only play for two hours.

I'm just guessing that you wouldnt have paid 60 dollars for that game irrespective of the Apple platform games availability. Maybe at some lower price point, but it doesnt sound like you would've ever paid full day one pricing for a game that you have doubts about.

I agree with the earlier poster in that I see little overlap between Apple iOS gaming and entertainment room (console) gaming. Gamers whether pc or console tend to invest in their setup pretty heavily, and they want to experience it in all its glory. Its a gaming luxury. I just don't see iPads or iPhones affecting that part of the market for a long time to come.

In my view, iPad, iPhone games etc compete more directly with console counterparts on XBLA, PSN digital download type games. It will probably reach a point where folks are choosing their platform for a specific purchase. Or maybe, because the iPad/Phone versions are so cheap, they never will compete, but merely co-exist as an alternative on-the-road option. Device wise the iPhone/iPad compete for suitcase/backpack space with handheld gaming options, but Nintendo tends to bring enough polished gameplay and nostalgia to their products that people will continue to buy them for the exclusives.

My impression of iOS gaming is that most of them are disposable experiences. Sure there are heavy hitters like PvZ, or Civ Rev on occasion, with enough polish and content to keep you coming back for traditional console gaming experience. For the most part though, my first reaction upon hearing any conversation of the low price point for IPhone/IPad gaming apps is that the price point iscorrect for the pickup and soon to be dropped gaming experiences that they are. If there is even less shovelware on other handheld gaming device platforms thanks to the low pricepoints on iOS apps, then.. that's a great thing.

Hey I could be totally wrong.

Oh, on a totally different topic, I thought it was cool you called out some of the entitlement during the Steam Sale. It was hard not to pause in disbelief at a couple points it showed up in the Steam Sale thread. 50% off let alone the 75 - 80% off not being enough in some cases is just crazy. I mean we all appreciate cheap, but it was an End of year Sale, not an End of Year Free event. Maybe it was just folks being intoxicated with sales fever.

iGaming might compete with things like Facebook, Kongregate, and so on... but it doesn't compete with the console manufacturers.

I disagree:
1. iOS games are competing with nintendo and Sony for the handheld market and they are crushing them.
2. Any money spent with any sort of games is competition. If I spend 2 bucks to play Fruit Ninja, that is 2 bucks of my entertainment budget which means I might not pick up a XBLA or PSN game this month.
3. Any free time spent with any game is competition. If I chose to spend 20 minutes playing a game on my iOS device, that is 20 minutes less that I spend with my PS3 / XBOX which means 20 minutes less trying to sell me things through their market places + 20 minutes less of gametime spent trying to beat the latest AAA title so I want to go buy a new AAA title for my console.

My 2011 prediction: the Rock Band Fender will come out, be an absolutely amazing peripheral, and sell practically nothing at all. While this will be due more to the horrible lag between its release and the release of Rock Band 3, it will be taken by industry prognosticators as the final death knell of the music game genre. Harmonix will suffer a brain drain, and independent startup developers will take hold of music games and start doing wonderful new and unexpected things with them. Also, the Fender will still kick ass

Fredrik_S wrote:
iGaming might compete with things like Facebook, Kongregate, and so on... but it doesn't compete with the console manufacturers.

I disagree:
1. iOS games are competing with nintendo and Sony for the handheld market and they are crushing them.
2. Any money spent with any sort of games is competition. If I spend 2 bucks to play Fruit Ninja, that is 2 bucks of my entertainment budget which means I might not pick up a XBLA or PSN game this month.
3. Any free time spent with any game is competition. If I chose to spend 20 minutes playing a game on my iOS device, that is 20 minutes less that I spend with my PS3 / XBOX which means 20 minutes less trying to sell me things through their market places + 20 minutes less of gametime spent trying to beat the latest AAA title so I want to go buy a new AAA title for my console.

Your logic baffles me:

1. Sony's getting crushed by everyone, but the Nintendo DS is not being "crushed" by any definition of the term, by iOS devices. The DS is the single best selling handheld gaming device ever, and despite a recent slowdown in sales (perhaps partially spurred on by the pending release of the 3DS), it's still doing fine.

2. XBLA/PSN are probably the closest competition that iGamers have on the consoles... but tell me, who buys a PS3 or 360 for those services as their primary motivation? Apples and oranges.

3. That 20 minutes on your iDevice was probably 20 minutes that would be useless to spend gaming on a PC or console unless you're playing a fluffy Facebook/Kongregate/PSN/XBLA game. If you have 20 minutes free, odds are that you're not going to sit down and fire up a AAA game in the first place. (Now if a significant number of people are choosing to spend an hour or two iGaming then you might have a point - but I don't think very many people do that).

My predictions:

Japanese developers will learn lessons from games like Red Dead, Mass Effect and Assassin's Creed and start to have some big hits in 2011....or 2012/2013... before 2020 anyway.

Also, the next Splinter Cell will see Sam Fisher held captive or killed by a terrorist group or enemy state and his daughter Sarah will be the main playable character out on a mission to rescue him or exact revenge.

Here's a no-brainer: Microsoft will continue to do sweet F. A. worthwhile about PC as a platform. Please prove me wrong.

As the current gen of consoles drag on, there have been various grumbles about the platform holders, notably from Activision last year wanting a larger piece of the pie. I'd like to see major publishers like EA, Activision, Ubisoft, etc, develop good PC portals expanding things such as battlenet and the EADM client. That's if they don't throw their weight behind established schemes like steam.

I'm looking forward to revisiting this topic in a year.

The 3DS will be out, gaming on Android will be more mature, there will be eleventy billion tablets in the market (according to what's going on now at CES) and the PlayStation phone may also see the light of day.

Should be interesting! Anyone wanna make a bold prediction on portable gaming?

So Julian thinks people will be buying iPads for their kids instead of 3DSes?

garion333 wrote:

So Julian thinks people will be buying iPads for their kids instead of 3DSes?

Which one has more Pretty Pretty Pony games?

AndrewA wrote:

2. XBLA/PSN are probably the closest competition that iGamers have on the consoles... but tell me, who buys a PS3 or 360 for those services as their primary motivation? Apples and oranges.

I don't have one, but I'll ask: who buys an iphone primarily to play games on it? I would think that the primary reason the general population buys it is to use it as a phone and to use the helpful (non-gaming) apps.

garion333 wrote:

So Julian thinks people will be buying iPads for their kids instead of 3DSes?

He mentioned something about being able to buy an ipad for $300. Tell me where I can, and I might actually consider getting one. The cheapest I've seen is over $500, and that's for the 16GB model.

Scratched wrote:

Here's a no-brainer: Microsoft will continue to do sweet F. A. worthwhile about PC as a platform. Please prove me wrong.

My worry is that Fable 3 will come out on the PC and only sell like 12 copies because it's crap. Then Microsoft will say, "see we told you pc gaming was dead!"

Also, if the console market stays flat, I think we'll start to hear teases about the next-gen consoles - which will of course be super-awesome-so-much-better-than-those-crappy-computers and will herald the imminent death of pc gaming once and for all.

My very safe prediction: PC gaming will be just fine.

In 2011, Nintendo will come out with a portable version of their console called the "Wii P"

/har har

PaladinTom wrote:

My very safe prediction: PC gaming will be just fine.

And that's the thing, PC gaming can't be killed by anyone, doesn't rely on any one company, and is pretty much a universal open format to develop on. It would be nice if the developer of the most used OS gave a damn, but it's not a requirement.

AndrewA wrote:

Your logic baffles me:

1. Sony's getting crushed by everyone, but the Nintendo DS is not being "crushed" by any definition of the term, by iOS devices. The DS is the single best selling handheld gaming device ever, and despite a recent slowdown in sales (perhaps partially spurred on by the pending release of the 3DS), it's still doing fine.

A quick google search later: http://www.gameleon.net/article/227/ and http://www.investorplace.com/16536/apple-ipod-game-vs-nintendo-sony-microsoft/

I think iOS is going to grow even further than what it is now since you don't really hear (at least in my neck of the woods) about people being excited about the DS and noone outside of people visiting game sites even know about the 3DS, but everyone and their mother is snapping up iphones / ipads by the millions.

Regarding time and money. All I am saying is that since iOS is growing by leaps and bounds, and in this economy, I doubt the general masses will own more than one hand held device. That device will be their phone, not a system that ONLY plays games.

MrLingo wrote:

In 2011, Nintendo will come out with a portable version of their console called the "Wii P"

/har har

Or, perhaps, the "Wee Wii"

Mmmmmm, humble pie.

LOL @ 3DS flopping. Like the DS and Wii did right? Could the public be jonesing for glasses-free 3D? Nooo. Will a $300 IPad have good controls for games? Nooo. Could Rabbit be anymore of a delusioned Apple shill? Nooo.

renegade24 wrote:

LOL @ 3DS flopping. Like the DS and Wii did right? Could the public be jonesing for glasses-free 3D? Nooo. Will a $300 IPad have good controls for games? Nooo. Could Rabbit be anymore of a delusioned Apple shill? Nooo.

Welcome to the site.

garion333 wrote:
renegade24 wrote:

LOL @ 3DS flopping. Like the DS and Wii did right? Could the public be jonesing for glasses-free 3D? Nooo. Will a $300 IPad have good controls for games? Nooo. Could Rabbit be anymore of a delusioned Apple shill? Nooo.

Welcome to the site.

Although, I do agree that it's a bit silly to bet against the 3DS. Good gimmicks tend to sell very well. Are people forgetting E3? How many attendees had their opinion on the device completely reversed once they had a chance to try it out? Iirc, damn near everyone.

As long as Nintendo is able to get demo units into stores in advance and employs strong marketing, I have a hard time imagining anything short of a resounding success.

Is there a problem with the download? I can't seem to access it through a variety of means.

Julian's 3DS flopping prediction was bizarre. And his tone, said to me, he didn't believe it while he was saying it. I think the real purpose was just to generate the type of discussion we're having in this very thread That's good radio.

Anecdotally, a quick survey around my office revealed not a single person that agreed with the statement "Do you consider iPad and DS competing devices?". Also, the only way a $300 iPad exists is if the remaining stock of the WiFi16GB is deeply discounted upon the iPad2's release. I think it would more likely become $400, that's minus $100 from the original price, and be available for a very short time.

Sorax wrote:

Anecdotally, a quick survey around my office revealed not a single person that agreed with the statement "Do you consider iPad and DS competing devices?"

Probably because it's not a statement. Bazinga!