Bold Predictions 2010

2009 was not a good year for me. Not only did I predict that Duke Nukem Forever would be released; I did so without any loop holes or qualifications. My proclamation just lays there like a dead pigeon pulled out of a magician’s hat. I even said Alan Wake would finally be released before the year was out. I think someone was messing with the prediction hat.

Don’t let that sway you because my 2010 predictions are like solid gold. You could bet your house on them! What’s that? Don’t believe me?

- This year will mark the beginning of the end for Rockstar’s pre-eminence in the gaming industry.

We have lots of predictions from the GWJ staff for 2010 after the jump. Be sure to add your own in the comments and check out the 2009 thread to see how amazing/horrible your predictions were.

Shawn “Certis” Andrich

- The Nintendo Heartbeat Sensor will release this year and be successful. Not Wii Fit successful, but it will hit the target audience squarely. It will launch with a stress reduction game.

- Project Natal will launch at $59.99 and include a mini-game collection. It will stumble on multiplayer games when people are waving their limbs in front of each other and messing up the tracking. Games will primarily settle with one player at a time experiences in the long run.

- Apple will announce a MacBook tablet with 1:1 portability for all iPhone apps and games willing to adjust for the higher resolution.

- The PS3 will finally catch up with the 360 Live experience; including cross-game chat, party chat and in-game notifications. It will continue to be free.

- The PS3 will begin to consistently outsell the Xbox 360 by the middle of the year.

- PC game prices will begin to stabilize as the formula for digital sales becomes more clear. Top tiered games will continue to launch at $49.99 and predictably drop to a median $19.99 after six months if reviews have a meta score of less than 70.

- Microsoft will be the first to have rumblings of a new console in the works. It will be a smaller technological leap than before, mostly being a refresh along the lines of the PS3 slim. Expect it around the Natal launch.

- More studio closures in California, major publishers will establish deeper roots in places like Austin to escape high taxes.

- Open world games will finally jump the shark as more uninspired clones clog the marketplace. Coop will be king.

Wordsmythe

- There will be at least 3 9+/10 games that I will be passingly interested in at best, and will deride as not really be worth playing unless you have extra time to kill. A couple of these will show up toward the bottom of next December's "best of 2010" lists.

- Efforts to bring more "non-gamers" into the flock will stall as "real gamers" call for games that are harder, faster and longer.

- 2010 will be marked largely by a continuing trend of games that seek to iterate on and polish established styles and mechanics. Even "indie" games will seem to largely focus more on polish and presentation.

- And some other weasel words to make it easier to back out of or justify predictions when 2011 rolls around. Anyway: Wordsmythe will get grumpier and more self-righteous, like some sort of terrible lovechild of Gaald and Elysium. This will occasionally be assuaged by board games, historical strategy games, and titles by the likes of Rohrer, Weir and Benmergui.

- Though potentially offensive stereotypes in games will continue, we will see more, significant progress toward games with important characters that aren't straight, white men and that aren't stereotypes of minorities.

Chris "Clemenstation" Clemens

- At least one video game in 2010 will feature the term "fudge funnel". Zero games will feature the term "ramburgler".

- Achievements/trophies will be used to get people to play (and actually complete) more corporate advertising games than ever before. In fact, we'll see a big increase in companies and services trying to get people to complete consumer surveys or view ad content in exchange for game-related virtual perks. Microsoft will announce a new Xbox console late in the year (to be launched in 2012), and one of their first press releases will confirm that Live profiles and achievements will be compatible with / ported over to this new hardware. Yes, people will care about this.

- Project Natal and the Sony Eyeraper -- or whatever it's called -- will roll out with great fanfare and then promptly fall down, as adoption of the technology into AAA games that people actually want to play will be slow and hesitant. As the lackluster reception to recent peripheral-centric games like Tony Hawk: Ride and DJ Hero suggests, consumers are fatigued with material add-ons that don't seem to hold much long-term value. High retail costs will scare people away from Natal/Eyeraper, or at least delay mass purchases until the platforms grow past the tech demo stage and it is proven that we're not looking at another PlayStation Eye or Sega 32x here.

The 'featured' title released at launch faces a serious challenge: it must hold up as an excellent core gaming experience, while using new modes of input (visual/auditory) to somehow enhance this experience, not supplant it. Fable II plus the occasional NPC character who yells "I love the teal coloured shirt you're wearing, m'lord! And your lady friend in the background there appears to be quite voluptuous!" as you stroll past is not going to cut it. Neither is a collection of novelty mini-games.

- I think we're going to have to wait through a year or so of really poor fumbling with potential before we figure out how games can benefit from this technology, as opposed to simply 'supporting' it as a series of tacked-on, marginal features. Hopefully Sony and Microsoft stand by their beloved Natal/Eyeraper devices as they suffer through growing pains and an inevitable price reduction (probably 6 months after release).

- Someone on the GWJ trueachievements.com leaderboard is gonna get poisoned.

Julian “rabbit” Murdoch

- Civ Network will launch, and be a breakout title for "social gaming." We'll see the defection of at least one more high-profile NON-strategy developer to Zynga or Playfish.

- Someone will announce a "Facebook" version of a major First Person Shooter franchise. The game will succeed where the lite versions of Battlefield and Quake failed.

- OnLive will enter limited markets (urban) by the end of 2010. It will, surprisingly, work for most games. It will, unsurprisingly, continue to be a whizbang solution to a problem core gamers don't really have.

- iPhone/iSlate game sales will close the year as the third largest console by dollar volume.

Sean “Elysium” Sands

- Half Life Episode 3 will be officially announced and released this year. It will feature a similar Orange Box style package and include Portal 2, which everyone will agree is fun but lacks the surprise charm of the original.

- Starcraft II will release this year, and while it will develop a sizable following there will be some widespread consensus that the pure RTS genre has been played out and sales outside of Starcraft strongholds such as Korea will be solid but seem short of expectations.

- World of Warcraft will remain the dominant North American MMO with Cataclysm's launch likely to be within 1 month on either side of Star Wars: The Old Republic.

- We will go another year without any of the major three console makers announcing a true generational hardware upgrade.

- Apple will not get involved in the console industry this year.

- Valve will be able to announce by the end of 2010 that more PC games are purchased directly through their online store than any other retailer, including brick and mortar locations.

- Activision will suffer double digit losses vs. 2009 and 2008 as rhythm game sales weaken and the Call of Duty franchise becomes soft. By the end of the year Bobby Kotick's job will be in serious question.

- The Southeast US will begin to establish itself as a gaming and technological center. EA Atlanta will be among the first, but people will begin talking about places like Florida and the Carolinas.

Allen "Pyroman[FO] Cupcake" Cook

- By the end of the year, big publishers will begin to frequently target Android with ports of successful iPhone games.

- Indie developers will actually begin to become profitable as digital distribution becomes easier and more widespread.

- In order to set themselves apart from the mainstream digital-only "casual" releases, indie games will have to become more gimmicky, quirky and shocking. At first the indie gaming reviewers will eat this up, then at some point people will begin to call bullsh*t and being quirky will become unfashionable for a bit.

- There will be fewer iPhone games released in 2010 than 2009, however there will be more iPhone games sold in 2010 than 2009.

- The hacker community will find tons of uses for Project Natal hardware and it will live on as an underground sensation well after Microsoft cancels production on the hardware.

Alex “Spaz” Martinez

- Rumors about the potential of the Xbox successor will fly. Someone will report Windows 7 as the backbone of the new console's experience, opening up the possibility for hybrid discs of games to be sold to both the PC gamer/console owner crowd. Solid state drives will be used.
Someone will mention apps or widgets, others will groan.

- iTablet announcement will steamroll gadget lovers. Mass campouts at select retailers will begin. Others will scramble to find where to place tablet computing on the Smartphone > Netbook > Laptop spectrum. Apple once again pushes the envelope and causes the market to catch up.

- Microsoft's own Courrier tablet device will offer an impressive alternative interface. Compatibility with popular office suites will prove useful, as will its collaboration technology. Unfortunately, it won't be as hip as the Apple-flavored version. Lack of widespread adoption hampers use and popularity. Microsoft will release a Courier compatible environment for PC users to work with Courier formats, but it will require a few updates to achieve usability and will be relatively late in Courier v.1's lifespan.

- XBox Community Games continue to mostly suck... but by the time the annual XBLA Days of Summer lineup is announced, we'll have one or two breakout hits.

- You will have exactly ONE friend that has a 3D capable TV -- for the record, you'll tire of the glasses very, very quickly and decide that Monday Night Football isn't worth the hassle, though the beads of mid-air sweat give the sport a nice bit of class.

- You will have no fewer than SEVEN PC gamer friends (if you know that many, nyuck nyuck!) with 3D enabled graphics cards. Surprisingly, StarCraft, Diablo, WoW and L4D work pretty well with the tech. So well that you purchase a low-range card and make due with the glasses left over from last week's Avatar screening.

- Natal? Expect a popular dance tutorial program (Learn to SAMBA!), and a Yoga instruction program to take it by storm.

- Sony makes strong home theater gains this year, as the company finally realizes that their products should complement each other. PSPs will stream video content to PS3s. DNLA-enabled Sony TVs will work effortlessly with VAIO laptops. The PS Store becomes a bit more useful as a result. The unified Sony dashboard finally becomes iconic.

- The PSP Go platform stabilizes after Sony makes some much-needed PR concessions. Look for pre-installed demos, minigames, and (yes) the requisite Twitter-app to be bundled in with the system. Without the agonizing download wait, the initial impression of the PSP Go will be much more faborable.

- Google Chrome reaches out to "Casual" game developers. Expect to see a notification tab that lets you know your turf's been jacked in Mafia Wars.

- As gamers shy away from peripheral-upgrade cycles, RockBand will continue to limp along thanks to its excellent DLC strategy. Guitar Hero will see two more "band flavored" expansions, and maybe a 6th iteration before being shelved completely. DJ Hero will see a sequel then quietly be put to pasture.

Colleen “momgamer” Hannon

- SquareEnix will crush jRPG fans back into their couch cushions yet again with Final Fantasy XIII, but somehow still snatch a loss from the jaws of victory in the eyes of the more vocal fans of other genres. Fans won't care because they're too busy trying to activate the full power of the Irridescent Spagetti Strainer of Smiting by smacking all 204 catuar graffitti hidden in the Wasted Ruins before they go after the big bad guy.

- I will suck at Halo: Reach so hard that it will unbalance air conditioning systems as far away as Cleveland. But I will love it anyways and I won't care.

- Someone may wade upstream through all the marketing-speak and figure out exactly what the heck Ubisoft's I Am Alive actually is before it ships. The words "Jade Raymond" will figure prominently and repeatedly in the text of any attached article comment section for no reason whatsoever.

Gorgeous Rob Borges

- Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony will have no new console news as they will be focused on trying to push their new peripherals as the next big thing in gaming.

- Activision will have a horrible year compared to 2009, as their rhythm game ip's take a nose dive. There will be much rejoicing on the internet.

- Bioshock 2 will suffer from poor sales as much of what made the original game great will have been lost in the sequel.

- I will finally find a way to make a living doing what I love, and all will be right with world. (One can dream can't he?)

Jeremy "Nyles" Greenfield

- Microsoft and Sony will push through simultaneous updates so that every Trophy a player earns will delete one Achievement, and vice versa. Choose, or die.

- Telltale Games will discover one of the few adventure game licenses which already features an episodic format, no significant fan base to placate, and dirt-cheap scenery recycling: Freddy Pharkas, Frontier Pharmacist.

- Rumors of a new Call of Duty game push the release dates for Mass Effect 2 and God of War III to 2011. The game in question turns out to be Cabela's Duty: Terrorist Deer Hunt 2010.

- Cheaters in BioShock 2's multiplayer mode are richly rewarded for having the audacity to seize victory without regard to the common man's notions of "fair play" or "wall hacks."

- Half-Life: Episode 3 will contain a full, completely satisfying conclusion to the story of Gordon Freeman. To balance out this narrative karma, Team Fortress 2 will introduce a new class: The G-Man. His only ability is to show up 30 seconds before a match ends and disconnect the server.

- The only Wii game I will bother playing in 2010 will be No More Heroes 2. I will, however, create a jury rigged Project Natal by swallowing a Wiimote and gluing the sensor bar to my cat.

Comments

Pages

Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2010. Book it!

I just want to say from last year

wordsmythe wrote:

No new consoles announced. Planning for the next generation is postponed until the economy picks up in late 2010.

Damn, nailed it.

Julian's predictions wrote:

- Civ Network will launch, and be a breakout title for "social gaming." We'll see the defection of at least one more high-profile NON-strategy developer to Zynga or Playfish.

I'm actually going to take the flipside: I think Civ Network will launch as an influential game in the Facebook space, but will not be a breakout title...and, in fact, it will be considered something of a disappointment within gaming, given the hype and people involved.

Some good predictions in there. Very little to disagree with.

It's tempting to say MS has to do a xbox 360 slim, or 360.5 with more than a minor revision (similar to the current revisions to the 360) on the hardware, if only to "keep up with the Jones'". As much as I'd like to see a more powerful 360 with the capability to play current 360 games smoother and with more detail, I think any major revision will work on getting the console smaller, lighter, quieter, and perhaps bring the power brick inside the main case, especially if they want it in a home theatre setup and not just as a games console.

Karma says it would be nice if Activision had a bad year, but I can't honestly say it will be horrible because I don't know jack about business. I think the hero games are over their peak, CoD isn't being done by infinity ward this year so it won't be the hit MW2 was, WoW cataclysm will release in autumn and keep the MMO ticking along in it's cash cow position for a few years longer.

Because they're optional and coming a few years into their parent console's life, natal and motion controls are gimicky, and don't grab much of an audience outside of the current owners because nintendo got there first.

Does anyone have predictions for 'this year in DLC'? I have a sneaking suspicion that EA will announce a nice chunk of money coming from this direction thanks to The Sims and Bioware.

PyromanFO wrote:

I just want to say from last year

wordsmythe wrote:

No new consoles announced. Planning for the next generation is postponed until the economy picks up in late 2010.

Damn, nailed it.

In fairness, that seemed like an obvious one to me. Then again, my 9-5 is finance-related, so the fearmongers are everywhere.

- World of Warcraft will remain the dominant North American MMO with Cataclysm's launch likely to be within 1 month on either side of Star Wars: The Old Republic.

Sorry Sean, but wrong on the SW:TOR part at least.

I was just looking up articles to reference that announcement Yew. To be fair, Elysium's prediction of WoW domination stays unchanged. I'm curious if he thinks they'll delay the release of Cataclysm til 2011 in order to hamstring SW:TOR.

My last set of predictions completely sucked, so this year I'll simply ride on the coat tails of greatness.

Elysium wrote:

- Activision will suffer double digit losses vs. 2009 and 2008 as rhythm game sales weaken and the Call of Duty franchise becomes soft. By the end of the year Bobby Kotick's job will be in serious question.

I'm putting my money on this.

* Rockstar will be forced to behave itself and re-evaluate how it treats it's employees (ala EA with EASpouse) by T2, due to share prices and credibility taking a hit.

* With continued floundering of stock prices, SKU cuts, internal reorganization, EA will be forced into a possible acquisition situation by someone; many are hinting at Disney.

* With Xbox and PS3 now starting to charge for their home services, Nintendo will finally get their act together and deliver a free Wii portal service that's actually decent and integrates Wii and DS users into one space on the net.

* Valve ponders how to get Steam to deliver a console-only download service but the big 3 refuse to relinquish control.

* Apple releases the tablet making many indie devs happy but many major developers confused on how to monetize the service for themselves.

* Development budgets continue to skyrocket, forcing some developers to re-evaluate their production structures and looking again to art asset outsourcing to save them. The art asset outsource people are looking to hire project based programmers to make their own games and finally become a force to be reckoned with through independent development.

* World of Warcraft finally becomes free - for the first 20 levels and only certain areas are unlocked. Expansions are full price; as always.

* Direct X 11 games will start being released and only a marginal few will be able to run them.

* The next big thing in gaming won't come from the usual suspects. It will be someone you never heard of or never saw coming.

Nothing from Demiurge?

- Nintendo will announce a hi-def Wii which won't be available until Q2 of 2011, it will release yet another DSx/i/y/ñ model with an even larger screen.

I can get behind this.

I would even say that after the Apple tablet, Nintendo would consider a larger tablet like gaming device for themselves.

Stitched wrote:

* World of Warcraft finally becomes free - for the first 20 levels and only certain areas are unlocked. Expansions are full price; as always.

Good one.

Stitched wrote:

* Development budgets continue to skyrocket, forcing some developers to re-evaluate their production structures and looking again to art asset outsourcing to save them. The art asset outsource people are looking to hire project based programmers to make their own games and finally become a force to be reckoned with through independent development.

I wanted to mention something about the UDK and how more than one major Engine Studio will probably announce something similar (free to develop, %-cut for a commercial license) by year's end when a couple of UDK-based games are mildly successfull in Steam and/or XBox Arcade.

Sean “Elysium” Sands wrote:

- Half Life Episode 3 will be officially announced and released this year. It will feature a similar Orange Box style package and include Portal 2, which everyone will agree is fun but lacks the surprise charm of the original.

I thought you guys were gonna try to be serious about this...

Anywhoo...

- Valve will still not release a single fact about their Steam Sales volumes but will proclaim itself the "Apple" of Digital Distribution in the Entertainment arena.

- More Steam wannabes (Impulse and whatnot) will complain even louder about how Steam is a risk for the future of DD, PC Gaming and civilization as we know it.

- Heavy Rain will receive critical acclaim but will flop in sales, this, plus my previous post and success stories like Civ Net + Facebook and 20 more farmville clones will begin a reversal trend "the PC is the best console of the world, the console model is a thing of the past", there's a post about that somewhere...

- Nintendo will announce a hi-def Wii which won't be available until Q2 of 2011, it will release yet another DSx/i/y/ñ model with an even larger screen.

- PS3's firmware update will allow PSP games to be downloaded and played on the PS3, no need for the actual PSP to stream the game (this will help Kojima's MGS: Peace-something and have Sony kiss Kojima for another couple of years).

- PS3's Gem Motion control will invite some RTS developers to give their games a try on the console arena. While mildly successful, it won't be until 2011 when XBox announces a Gem Motion Control (compatible with Natal!) Clone that this genre will finally find it's place in the living room.

- For those who actually care, League of Legends will be quite successful, Demigod will release a total of 2 (t-w-o) Demigods in the same 12 month period and multiplayer will still be buggy.

- Google Wave will be as successful as any of my other predictions (how's that for ambiguity?!)

- We will see at least 4 major updates for TF2.

- After 3 DLC's, the original cast of L4D2 will be replaced by 3 of the 4 original cast members and a new member. Valve will apologize for their screw-up, saying how they should've stick to characters players loved, but doing a sequel was still a good idea.

- Our game will totally kick ass.

Quintin_Stone wrote:

Nothing from Demiurge?

I was so right last year that I didn't want to tarnish my record.

Sorry Sean, but wrong on the SW:TOR part at least.

Yeah, that feels like a pretty typical start for me.

I'm glad you guys are pretty much always wrong, because a world where achievements get taken even more seriously and more serious devs go to Facebook is a scary one indeed. Though I do agree that Natal is going to flop.

Overall, I like Elysium's predictions the best. Well done, sir!

Demiurge wrote:

I was so right last year that I didn't want to tarnish my record.

Though you were pretty wrong on a lot of fronts, I'm actually curious about your Mac gaming prediction. I haven't really paid attention - has it come true to any extent? Isn't Dragon Age getting released for Mac?

* I will finish more than 10% of the games I purchse (and monkeys will fly out of my butt).

Demiurge wrote:
Quintin_Stone wrote:

Nothing from Demiurge?

I was so right last year that I didn't want to tarnish my record. ;)

Didn't you say Lego Rock Band would never come out?

Elysium wrote:

Portal 2 ... everyone will agree is fun but lacks the surprise charm of the original.

Spoiler tag, please. C'mon!

wordsmythe, a.k.a. "King Grahammar of Daventypo" (Copy Editor) wrote:

- Games scheduled for this year that don't release for Christmas will be in a tough spot, and potentially sold off. I expect a number of buggy or otherwise unpolished titles pushed out at the last minute.

Didn't expect we'd see an exodus into the desert early 2010. No dry periods this year, at least.

Switchbreak wrote:

My prediction for 2010? Dog in a wheelchair.

A noble protagonist!

My prediction for 2010? Dog in a wheelchair.

edit: Okay, I wanted to leave it at that but I have some real predictions:

  • Rockstar is going to do another off-beat new IP like Bully that won't sell as well as GTA but will knock the socks off of critics.
  • I will continue to think about maybe returning to Dragon Age and pushing past the blindingly, infuriatingly unfun part that I quit at to see if I ever get to have sex with that hottie Alistair. I won't, due to my crippling Left 4 Dead addiction.
  • For similar reasons, my list of indie games I should really try someday will hit 1000 and keep moving.
Bullion Cube wrote:

I was just looking up articles to reference that announcement Yew. To be fair, Elysium's prediction of WoW domination stays unchanged. I'm curious if he thinks they'll delay the release of Cataclysm til 2011 in order to hamstring SW:TOR.

Not a chance. They might have been willing to delay Cataclysm a few months to mess with TOR, but not half a year or more. Hell, I'll go out on a limb and say it in official, bullet point form:

- Blizzard will ship Cataclysm by the end of summer

but here's a bullet point for 2011 that I'm even more sure of:

- Blizzard will plan a major content patch to coincide as closely as possible with the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, whenever Bioware actually does end up launching it.

Why am I so sure about summer for Cataclysm?

First and foremost is evidence of what stage in the development cycle they are currently in. Wrath went from alpha to retail in about 6 or seven months. Rumors are that the Cataclysm alpha will be starting this week (hell, probably today in fact). Six months from today? Summer.

More importantly though are considerations of customer retention. The Wrath content cycle will be winding down in late spring. Blizzard screwed up the timing of the transition from BC to Wrath big time, making players wait almost two thirds of year between the final content patch of BC and the release of Wrath, and to do anything close to that again would risk significant subscriber drop off (not to mention that the final content patch of BC itself was a stopgap release to help mitigate this very problem). They will not make the same mistake again.

My guess is that they are targeting early summer -- June, if I had to be specific -- but if it starts looking like it will slip into late July or August, we'll see a mini content patch in May or so with a one-off, lore light raid featuring one or two bosses with a very easy normal mode and a very hard heroic mode to keep players sated. One way or another, though, WoW will be a new game by Labor Day.

Both Nintendo and Sony will announce "all new" handhelds with backwards compatibility, and an always-on 3G connection for online store access, small time internet multiplayer, and piracy.

Sony's will feature a second analog nub, but you still won't get any decent first person shooters.

RE: Nintendo Vitality Sensor and DS predictions, which all may still have merit, but there's already news on that front.

ign article[/url]]Iwata was pretty open for this particular interview. He also revealed that Nintendo will be announcing Vitality Sensor games in July, with an aim to release product as soon as possible (not very specific, for sure, but better than nothing!)

DS also got some mention. Actually, make that DS 2! Iwata told the paper that a successor to the DS would require high resolution visuals and sensors for detecting player motions.

Also, that article 'confirms' the new Zelda Wii project for 2010.

Dysplastic wrote:
Demiurge wrote:

I was so right last year that I didn't want to tarnish my record.

Though you were pretty wrong on a lot of fronts, I'm actually curious about your Mac gaming prediction. I haven't really paid attention - has it come true to any extent? Isn't Dragon Age getting released for Mac?

It was released on the Mac. Of course, I bought it for Windows since I didn't know about the Mac port, so it didn't help me much. I think the gaming situation on the Mac platform is getting better -- Runic's still planning on a Torchlight release, for example -- but it's not where I'd like it to be.

Unless we count the iPhone. Can we count the iPhone? No? Oh, then I was totally wrong.

Quintin_Stone wrote:
Demiurge wrote:
Quintin_Stone wrote:

Nothing from Demiurge?

I was so right last year that I didn't want to tarnish my record. ;)

Didn't you say Lego Rock Band would never come out? :D

Nobody asked you!

Yes, LEGO Rock Band came out and was totally charming. But I said music games were going to suffer last year and they did! See? Totally right.

...

I'm as good at logic as I am prognosticating.

Clemenstation wrote:

Project Natal and the Sony Eyeraper -- or whatever it's called -- will roll out with great fanfare and then promptly fall down, as adoption of the technology into AAA games that people actually want to play will be slow and hesitant.

Yeah, I predict that 2010 we'll finally see a handful of titles that truly tap the potential of the Wiimote, and not have the words "Wii Sports" in the title.

Oh I'm rubbish at these...

erm, let's see....random stuff of the top of my head
(actually some of these are more like a personal wishlist )

- Fable III will replace Fable II's 'gesture' system with an optional Natal-based version and will be released through LIVE episodically along side the retail release

- Half Life Episode 3 will be unvieled as a full length game

- Portal 2 will tie in to the main "half-life" story directly

- Bully 2 will be unveiled and will have a female protagonist, or the choice of either

- likewise, GTA5 will be revealed and will have a female protagonist

- Irrational's next game is finally revealed to be X-Com related

- Deus Ex 3 turns out to be better than Deus Ex 2

- Thief 4 is set in a future/modern open world setting. Garret wears a Hoodie.

- I burn down the studio developing Thief 4

and..

- 3D movies will be revealed as the short-lived novelty they are and fall out of fashion.

(Or, alternatively)

- I end up with a lot more headaches watching movies in 2010.

one of those last two will guaranteed come true

Last year there was a bit of noise from publishers moaning about 'platform holders', I remember activision moaning about sony, and EA having a quieter moan about nintendo.
-I think a major publisher abandon a platform over royalties, or lack of support from the platform holder.

-GFWL will remain a joke in 2010 in comparison to similar frameworks.

Here's mine:

* No one's going to come close to topping World of Warcraft in terms of MMO dominance. The best that MMOs can hope for is niche status. That said, Star Trek Online will be the king of the new MMOs in the same way that Star Wars Galaxies was initially successful: because of the fans

* Mass Effect 2 will be the year's early hit and likely spark another controversy due to its explicit content.

* Alpha Protocol will tank and tank bad. It'll be a blow to Obsidian and likely kill the franchise before it gets started, but Fallout: New Vegas will keep the company afloat a while longer, though expect layoffs.

* BioShock 2 will be better than people thought/feared it would be, but in the end it'll just be one of those games that anybody who purchased at full price will be looking to trade in once the next big title drops.

* StarCraft 2 will have disappointing sales across the board except in Korea.

* Natal will be a flash in the pan.

* There'll be a backlash against DLC. Likewise, it'll be a bad year for collector's editions.

* As more and more 360s succumb to the Red Ring of Death, Microsoft will be forced to admit that they built a poorly constructed machine.

* Sony will be this year's console winner for three reasons: the aforementioned failings of the XBox, the fact that Wii sales will start to plateau by virtue of the fact that practically everyone now owns one, and because people will by the PS3 not mainly for games but for use as a Blu-Ray player.

* PC gaming will continue to transition into a platform mainly for the use of digitally distributed titles produced by smaller companies, remakes or reissues of older titles, social networking games, and the occasional console port. Few if any games will be published by large developers exclusively for the PC.

* Sony will announce another version of the PSP but still not even come close to Nintendo in terms of popularity.

* EA will surprise a lot of people by not putting anyone on the cover of the next Madden game.

* Also, to take Certis' prediction one step further, not only will the gaming industry in California be on the decline, look for major studios like 2K Marin and even portions of Electronic Arts to consider moving out.

* Rock Band: Green Day will be as hailed about as much as Guitar Hero: Van Halen was. As in not much at all.

* No new console announcements this year, but rumors will start to swirl come the fall about development of the next generation of platforms.

* Issues between Hollywood and the gaming industry concerning actors in games (both voice and likeness) and their compensation will start to come to a head.

* In a related vein, some idiot running for public office in this year's midterm elections in the US will try to make an issue out of video games as part of his or her platform, possibly by suggesting the US adopt a draconian ratings and sales policy similar to Australia.

* Dave Chappelle will be in the World of WarCraft movie, but not Mr. T. Likewise, Matthew Perry will find a way to get in to Fallout: New Vegas. Firefly fans can expect another reunion in the next Halo game.

* AT&T's broadband coverage will get better for iPhone users, but expect more people looking for better reception and a better pricing plan to look elsewhere, namely to Sprint.

* Ken Levine will use the Gamers With Jobs Conference Call to announce...a date when he'll announce his next game.

* Everyone will be wearing silk pajamas at this year's rabbitcon.

* Cory will yet again circle for hours over the Bay Area on his next attempted visit because little does he know that I have an in at the air traffic control.

* This year's new donation drive icon will be...a golden Certis.

* Finally, on a more serious note, by the end of 2010, more gamers will be looking forward to 2011 rather than fondly on this past year.

Pages