Bold Predictions 2008

Bold Predictions 2008

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We had a pretty good run last year. Bold predictions were made and many came to pass as foretold. Sure, some of my predictions may seem to have been wrong, but if you read them again the deeper meanings will be revealed. This year will be special, I've brought friends and we've all imbibed a special tonic that spreads wide the legs of the mind "… to the future!

- As I predicted last year, Grand Theft Auto IV was indeed delayed. This year, the game will finally ship with a full online coop mode and some surprising multiplayer team play features.

- There were too many original games last year. I see many sequels, expansions and download content for all games on all platforms. We will count the good, original games on one hand this year for each platform.

- After Super Smash Brothers, Nintendo will redouble their efforts to crush the hopes of long time Nintendo fans, placing their best and brightest on games better suited for your great aunt Edna.

- No Metal Gear Solid 4 until Fall. Insult to injury, the Xbox 360 version will be announced within weeks of the PS3 release. This may seem like last year's prediction, but last year's WAS ACTUALLY THIS YEAR'S! WoooOOOooo.

- In a misguided effort to over-compensate, Microsoft will release a motion control device into the market, only to be greeted by crickets. The niche is filled, gentlemen.

- The will be yet another Nintendo DS model to hit the market. Lighter, brighter and missing the GBA port. It will come in pink.

- The PS3 will gain ground, but as the PS2 sales slow down, the system will see another price cut in the Fall.

- The Gamers With Jobs Conference Call podcast will reach number 1 on the Bosnian iTunes.

- Two prominent gaming magazines will perish.

- Alan Wake? Not this year. Sorry.

And now, a little help from my friends. Spread them wide, everyone!

Elysiumadamus

- While the Wii will still dominate the majority of the year, the Playstation 3 will outsell the 360 on the year, and outsell the Wii on at least 2 months.

- In an effort to regain their dominant position in the industry, EA will finally buy Ubisoft.

Robadamus

- In an effort to stay competitive and reinvigorate their Live Anywhere promises, Microsoft will stop charging for Gold Live accounts by the end of the year.

rabitadamus-lamalamadingdong

- Ken Levine emerges from his basement lair, after spending 9 months rubbing $100 bills on his nipples, to ooze excitement about "project X" in late summer. Gamers everywhere rejoice. Rumors that Levine is contrasting the ethics of Marx, Capitalism and National Socialism in his next effort are proven unfounded.

- The release of the iPhone SDK in February will pave the way for a half dozen open-source game projects which will put the professional handheld game design community to shame. The offerings will be simple, elegant, and addictive. One will bought by Popcap by years end.

The Flyadamus

- Nintendo will release an Animal Crossing title for the Wii in time for the holiday sales rush, and its online features will lead it to become one of the most celebrated and sought-after titles on the platform.

- Valve won't release Episode III until Fall, but it'll come packaged with a title that expands upon the themes and settings introduced in Portal. It'll include more storytelling and less puzzle-solving than its predecessor.

Nylesadamus

- XBox gamers will complain that Devil May Cry 4 is too hard, while PS3 owners will say it's too easy. Riots erupt, martial law declared, police state.

- Spore will be downright unplayable on launch, but EA will release a zero day patch, and then re-patch it over and over again. Three months later, Spore becomes self-aware and begins patching EA.

There you have it, my children. You have one week to enter your own predictions in this thread before I lock it down. No take backs! Also be sure to check out the Bold Predictions 2007 Score Card thread to rate your predictions from a year ago.

Comments

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Super Smash Bros Brawl will be purchased by me and I won't ever need to buy another game again! But I will anyway.

Nylesadamus wrote:

- Spore will be downright unplayable on launch, but EA will release a zero day patch, and then re-patch it over and over again. Three months later, Spore becomes self-aware and begins patching EA.

Best prediction of the bunch.

Gears and Beers will continue to be a Friday night favorite untill Gears of War 2 comes out sometime 2009.

Xbox Live will continue to charge for a gold membership and create a Platnuim membership where you will be able to recieve "exclusive" content and be assured better connections to download servers.

Hospitals will treat thousands for Red Ring of Death Dementia caused by multiple revolving door repairs of xbox 360 consols each year. The worst cases leading to the "Cult of the Red Circle".

Certis wrote:

In a misguided effort to over-compensate, Microsoft will release a motion control device into the market, only to be greeted by crickets. The niche is filled, gentlemen.

http://arstechnica.com/journals/thumbs.ars/2007/12/28/microsoft-contacts-gyration-for-360-motion-sensing-solution

-Saint's Row 2 will be delayed to 2009 in the wake of GTAIV. Most people won't care.

-There will not be a new DS model this year. The price will drop to $99 and there will be more colors. Somehow.

-Microsoft will lower the price for Gold Live accounts, but not to free. Free weekends and movie rentals will become more prominent. Most people will still ignore Xbox Live Diamond.

-Windows Mobile 7 will be shown, impressively showcasing Live Anywhere. Android devices will clobber it.

-Subcribers to the Zune Pass will be able to download playlists to their 360s.

-The PS3 will not drop below the $379 price point, nor will it overtake the 360's overall sales for 2008.

-LucasArts will announce they're working on KOTOR3 themselves.

-Mario and Sonic will return to the Olympics.

-A Wii will be hard to find all year long. The advanced controller shell for the Wii Remote will be released.
EDIT: It'll also be "available" in black.

-Rock Band will see a "Gold Record" edition incorporating many of the downloadable tracks, instead of a sequel, for late 2008.

-Gears and Beers participation will be threatened by Left 4 Beers for Dead

-Rumors of Sitar Hero will still prove to be false.

I agree with Certis on these

- As I predicted last year, Grand Theft Auto IV was indeed delayed. This year, the game will finally ship with a full online coop mode and some surprising multiplayer team play features.

- There were too many original games last year. I see many sequels, expansions and download content for all games on all platforms. We will count the good, original games on one hand this year for each platform.

- After Super Smash Brothers, Nintendo will redouble their efforts to crush the hopes of long time Nintendo fans, placing their best and brightest on games better suited for your great aunt Edna.

- No Metal Gear Solid 4 until Fall. Insult to injury, the Xbox 360 version will be announced within weeks of the PS3 release. This may seem like last year's prediction, but last year's WAS ACTUALLY THIS YEAR'S! WoooOOOooo.

- The will be yet another Nintendo DS model to hit the market. Lighter, brighter and missing the GBA port. It will come in pink.

- The PS3 will gain ground, but as the PS2 sales slow down, the system will see another price cut in the Fall.

- Alan Wake? Not this year. Sorry.

Robadamus

- In an effort to stay competitive and reinvigorate their Live Anywhere promises, Microsoft will stop charging for Gold Live accounts by the end of the year.

Robadamus not even a 1% chance that will happen. They will offer more not charge less.

How about

- The PSP will finally come out with two analog sticks!!!

- Thw Wii will see one more year of great sales. Then fall flat on its face the next year while the PS3 and 360 run away with the lead.

- Quake Wars will be declared dead. Gamasutra will release a postmortem. Nobody will know what went wrong.

- Fallout 3 will come out, to a 95% score from PC Gamer. It will be forgotten in 3 months.

- Someone will make a car with a transparent HUD overlay on the windshield.

- Someone at Microsoft will leak a rumor that Vista Service Pack 1 is just a collection of files filled with zeroes and was released purely for psychological reasons, to help ease corporations into upgrading.

- A computer virus will be born that will exploit a Windows Vista security hole and cause massive damages. Microsoft spokesman will comment that the threat is wildly exaggerated and that the virus only affects computers which were turned on at the time.

- EEE PC rev. 2, featuring a slightly larger screen, will enjoy an incredible surge of sales in April and throughout the rest of the year.

- The person who wins the election will be a white male.

shihonage wrote:

- Someone will make a car with a transparent HUD overlay on the windshield.

That's a pretty safe bet since it's been done for years.

Nyles wrote:

- Spore will be downright unplayable on launch, but EA will release a zero day patch, and then re-patch it over and over again. Three months later, Spore becomes self-aware and begins patching EA.

Awesome stuff.

shihonage wrote:

- Quake Wars will be declared dead. Gamasutra will release a postmortem. Nobody will know what went wrong.

I really do not want that to happen, but I think you are right on the money.

My predictions:

Given the so far lack luster performance and degree of difficulty in programming for, the PS3 will see less exclusive titles compared to the 360. The best the PS3 will see is timed exclusive titles.

The PS3 will not surpass the 360 in sales. While the PS3 may start to move more units as it's library grows, the 360 will always be ahead in sales.

We will see the announcement of original Wii games that make intelligent use of the controllers. There will still be crappy ports of other games to help maintain balance in the universe.

There will be another price drop on the 360 by Christmas 2008.

XBOX Live will have completely outsourced all of its tech support to middle eastern Asia. You chances of talking to someone who has a basic grasp on the English language will be less than 1%.

There will be no more backwards compatibility updates for the 360. XBOX will instead focus on making the games available for download over XBOX live for a fee.

Okami on Wii will sell as terribly as the PS2 original and everyone in games media will hang their heads.

I see wii-mote like devices for both PS3 and Xbox 360 - both will sell no copies of both games that support them.

- Alan Wake? Not this year. Sorry.

Gaaaa. NoooOOOOOOOOO!

- Spore will be downright unplayable on launch, but EA will release a zero day patch, and then re-patch it over and over again. Three months later, Spore becomes self-aware and begins patching EA.

LOL! One of the funniest things I've read in some time. My cubical neighbors are looking at me funny. I have to wipe coffee from the keyboard.

- GTA IV will have a higher attach rate with the PS3 and will actually influence their console sales more than MGS4, despite it being multiplatform. By the end of the year, Konami will announce a multiplatform version of MGS4, pointing to the fact that is has a different subtitle now, so they didn't lie about the previous version being PS3 exclusive.

- Too Human won't be a bomb, but will have lacklustre sales and reviews will be mixed. Dennis Dyack responds with a public diatribe accusing people, especially critics, of not understanding the game and "playing it wrong".

- Valve will release "The Purple Box", containing Episode 3, Left 4 Dead and some other additional property that won't be related to Portal. Chances of it containing HL:2, Episode 1 & 2 will be moderately high.

- As rumours of their job postings suggest, The Witcher will be ported over to the 360, but since they can't take account of each console having a hard drive, load times will be the same as the PC version without the patch. Controls will be clunkier. It doesn't sell very well at all. Jack Thompson or someone similar will actually take notice of it and complain about the abhorrent use of the "sex cards" now that it's on the console.

- Major third parties slowly start abandoning the Wii, realizing that no matter what they come up with, sales will match most budgetware ripoffs produced at a fraction of the cost.

- The first game to show the PS3 being significantly more powerful graphically than the 360 will be revealed....by Crytek. PC fanboys will cry sellout. However, due to their inability to rein in their ambitions, it will also suffer from framerate issues that will never be fully addressed.

- Since 70% of the 360 audience has absolutely no nostalgia associated with the series, which is most of what Bethesda is banking on rather than a hefty marketing campaign. Fallout 3 will have dissapointing sales. NMA will claim it was all because of their efforts to "inform the public".

- By the end of the year, BioWare will have released more info and screenshots about Jade Empire 2 than they have about Dragon Age.

Episode 3 will be announced for the fall, but ont arrive until May 2009.

DLC portal expansion levels by May 08

360 price drop, after introducing 'super duper, no we mean it, really awesome' 360 version, which nobody will buy.

Tivo-like functionality hits the 360, but is so DRM encumbered, nobody uses it, until someone finally hacks the 360 completely, and a system update vs hack war ensues ala the iPhone

LIVE will continue to fail intermittently until March.

SSBB will come out, have terrible online support, but still sell well.

There will be few, if any other decent Wii games, and the system will still be in short supply come holidays.

The presidential candidates for both parties will make horrible 'if I'm president, only geriatrics and people in comas will have access to games with any violence' statements. In 2009, they'll forget they made such a statement.

Jack Thompson will be disbarred. It won't stop him. In fact, it will give him super powers, and every time we try to play GTA4, his head will appear on the screen yelling MURDER SIMULATION AHEAD for 30 minutes. People will still play.

I will continue to suck at TF2. I will still play it with a fervor.

kuddles wrote:

- Since 70% of the 360 audience has absolutely no nostalgia associated with the series, which is most of what Bethesda is banking on rather than a hefty marketing campaign. Fallout 3 will have dissapointing sales. NMA will claim it was all because of their efforts to "inform the public".

Angry much?

No bold predictions on the ongoing consolidation of the industry? As big as that flashed across the screen last year, I wouldn't be surprised if it increased this year.

-Age of Conan will elicit a similar response as LOTRO but for different reasons, and will leave a small minority of goodjers playing long term while the rest move on to other pastures after 3 months.

-A haze will descend upon the gaming community as the winter doldrums, normally a time to reflect and catch up on housework, will see most gamers rummaging through their piles of AAA titles from Fall 07, not sure what to play next or if taking out the trash might not be a safer bet.

-A gray dove will alight on a single bell tower. The red ring shall fade into a rising ocean.

I agree with these:

Certis wrote:

The Flyadamus

- Nintendo will release an Animal Crossing title for the Wii in time for the holiday sales rush, and its online features will lead it to become one of the most celebrated and sought-after titles on the platform.

joh3n wrote:

Episode 3 will be announced for the fall, but ont arrive until May 2009.

DLC portal expansion levels by May 08

There will be few, if any other decent Wii games, and the system will still be in short supply come holidays.

I don't agree with this:

The Fly wrote:

- Valve won't release Episode III until Fall, but it'll come packaged with a title that expands upon the themes and settings introduced in Portal. It'll include more storytelling and less puzzle-solving than its predecessor.

There is no way that Valve / Portal developers will be able to make another game (even of portal's size) in less than 1 year's time.

My own prediction:

- I predict that online conference calling-style gaming (á la Dungeons and Dragons ver 4?) over PC internet, PSN and LIVE! will become the next big thing and the logical extension of "hi-def" cameras and microphones being available for the various systems. The Eye of Judgement is only the beginning however, it is unlikely we'll see games make full use of these features before early 2009....

kuddles wrote:

- Too Human won't be a bomb, but will have lackluster sales and reviews will be mixed. Dennis Dyack responds with a public diatribe accusing people, especially critics, of not understanding the game and "playing it wrong".

sigh... As much as I don't like the idea, I fear that, it will be the case. Although, I doubt that D. Dyack will go on a mad tirade against the world.

Still, I'm looking forward to the game and hopefully the demo will be out soon.

There is no way that Valve / Portal developers will be able to make another game (even of portal's size) in less than 1 year's time.

I don't agree. The engine is built, as are the graphics. I mean that the DLC will simply be another 10 or so levels. I certainly believe certain test chambers didnt make the cut for brevity's sake, and they can be reborn through DLC. Valve will want to do them for free, MS will disagree, and it'll cost us $5 to play.

WoW subscriber base will exceed 15 million.

Wii will be in stock at major retailers by mid-summer but become impossible to find again in the fall. It will outsell Xbox360 and PS3 combined.

On August the 18th, the last original design XBox 360 will be powered on at 7:28pm EST and Red Ring.

After continued weak sales and a waning subscriber base later in the year, Hellgate London will reduce the subscription price to $4.95/month in a last ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.

GTA4 will disappoint. Common complaints will be about the stale game play and how Crackdown or Assassins Creed did something better.

GOTY will be a low budget indie release.

I forgot one:
- The 9800 series will come out and can play Crysis on all the "Very High" settings at a really smooth framerate. At nearly the same time, Crytek will release an update including advanced shaders and post-processing that they said they wanted in the game but technology wouldn't allow it at the time. This will crush performance even with these new cards, leading to gamers complaining but refusing to go back to the "Very High" settings because it's no longer the way it's "meant to be played" and looks inferior.

joh3n wrote:
There is no way that Valve / Portal developers will be able to make another game (even of portal's size) in less than 1 year's time.

I don't agree. The engine is built, as are the graphics. I mean that the DLC will simply be another 10 or so levels. I certainly believe certain test chambers didnt make the cut for brevity's sake, and they can be reborn through DLC. Valve will want to do them for free, MS will disagree, and it'll cost us $5 to play.

I don't know if you misread what i wrote... but i agreed with your DLC statement. I disagreed with Adam's statement that Episode three will come released with a separate title that expands on the game (storyline etc).

Certis wrote:

Valve won't release Episode III until Fall, but it'll come packaged with a title that expands upon the themes and settings introduced in Portal. It'll include more storytelling and less puzzle-solving than its predecessor.

My counter-prediction: Valve won't release Episode 3 until 2009, but it will expand upon the themes and settings introduced in Portal. In spite of the introduction of the portal gun and related gameplay innovations to the Half Life recipe, people will still complain that the game is boring, on rails and more of the same.

Left 4 Dead will drop in October 2008 for PC and Xbox 360 and kick all of our asses.

Hmm.

I predict Fallout 3 will be a blockbuster and old-school Fallout fans will be left to huddle in the corner muttering about what it should have been, as they exchange gameplay experiences about the copies they purchased (for research).

I predict that there will be a winner in the HD dvd media format, but that it will still be inconsequential compared to regular DVD sales. Manufacturers will start to force demand for the new technology by limiting dvd releases to exclusive next gen dvd formats and also throttling production of current-gen only dvd players.

I think the 360 will continue to outsell the PS3 on a month to month basis, though PS3 will sell better compared to itself last year thanks to bundled freebies and retailer / manufacturer rebates.

I think the Wii will continue to dominate sales as more and more new casual gamers of all generations purchase them, and institutions work them into their therapy programs.

I predict Microsoft will announce XBOX Live Family Accounts.

I predict MS will announce a new gaming handheld is in development.

I predict MS will release a new 360 hardware SKU but not a motion controller.

I predict Sony Home will fall flat, as users finally realize that it is all glitz and little efficient functionality for playing games with friends. Sony will make future promises that the real functionality should be available by 2009.

I predict Sony will announce that the market has moved on and consumers no longer want the PS2 despite all the market data that says contrary and in shady conference rooms give developers money incentives to shift full throttle from ps2 dev to ps3 dev while quietly throttling ps2 hardware shipments to retailers.

I predict Sony executive will give us some inane statement that flies in the face of reality to chatter about at least once a quarter.

-GTA IV will receive another delay until this Fall. Rockstar will continue to blame it on problems getting it to run with a decent frame rate on the PS3 and without ridiculous loading times without the hard disk on the 360.

-Fallout 3 will be delayed until Spring 2009. It will come out and be cool but Fallout fans will nuke Bethesda's offices from orbit, calling it the "Glow of Justice."

-Metal Gear Solid 4 will come out on time but parts of it will feel rushed. 360 version will not be announced until Fall.

-Too Human will come out and will be awesome as every other Silicon Knights game has been but because Denis Dyack had the balls to tell the gaming press what they needed to hear, it will be nailed to the wall on every little negative point they can find. The game will sell OK but not great as a result. Their lawsuit with Epic will settle.

-Microsoft and Sony will release nothing like the Wii-mote because they know it's a completely futile effort.

-The Wii will continue to sell extremely well but third-party titles will completely tank as they always do. Nintendo will not abandon their hardcore fans but games for those players will continue to trickle out. People will bitch there's nothing to play on it while continuing to ignore great third-party titles like Zac & Wiki and Umbrella Chronicles.

-A new DS model is planned but will not be announced until sales of the DS Lite start to slow down.

-EA will not buy Ubisoft this year to avoid further aggravating their shareholders after spending so much on BioWare and having weaker sports title sales this past year. However, they will increase their stake and if they can and after their next round of same-as-always sports games sells through, they will complete the acquisition in 2009. The gaming community will weep as Ubisoft's more creative properties are raped by corporate.

-Eidos/SCi Entertainment Group and Midway will merge. Two badly run companies will now become one horribly run company. The merged entity will fail or be bought up itself within 2 years.

-Ziff Davis Media will either go bankrupt again or be bought up for PC Magazine and 1up.com. The other two magazines will either be sold off or shut down. That'll suck for me as I recently subscribed to GFW. And for the record, while I'm no fan of EGM, I hope this isn't true and both magazines continue.

-Microsoft will not stop charging for Live Gold until Sony has a competitive online platform. However, due to horrendous adoption rates, GFW Live will quietly be ended this year.

-DLC will by and large, continue to have only modest success, Rock Band and Guitar Hero aside. Those who try to push out unfinished games and charge for the bits to complete them will be met with a stronger backlash than many (including myself) expected.

-Alan Wake and Episode 3? Not this year.

-In-game advertising will continue to get out of control, only kept in check by the continuing popularity of medieval games. When eventually, design decisions are affected by advertising and you can't turn your head in a game without seeing it, everyone who is accepting of it now will whine that it's gotten too bad and that there's no way they could've seen it coming. And they'll continue to buy the ad-laden games while whining.

-People will continue to bash Sony for every decision they make, good or bad. Those same people will far more forgiving of and apologetic for Microsoft or Nintendo doing the same thing.

-Vista will still not gain any ground with enthusiast PC users and gamers and rightly so.

-Many console players will continue to claim PC gaming is dying a rapid death while ignoring or dismissing without evidence all the currently unknown factors that could contradict the claim such as digital distribution.

Oh and I completely forgot one this morning...

-Harmonix & MTV Games will announce Rock Band for the Wii. It will sell like a mofo and will have working stereo output at launch.

An extended play n' drink session of Team Fortress 2 will get me pretty buzzed. The following morning will be a search for my underpants.

Here we go

- GTA IV will get pushed back again and won't be released until Mid November 2008. Combat won't be improved and the review scores will suffer. It'll still sell a boatload.
- Too Human will ship, no one will care. Dyack's diatribe will be the stuff of internet legends
- PS3 sales will pick up some, but will remain sub 200K per month except for the ramp up and holidays during Oct-Dec 2008. 360 sales will do about the same and the gap will not close between the two.
- MGS4 2009, but will include MGS Online.
- FF XIII demo Christmas 2008

Finally, the boldest prediction of all

- Certis breaks own arm patting self on back during January 2009 Bold Predictions.

McChuck wrote:

An extended play n' drink session of Team Fortress 2 will get me pretty buzzed. The following morning will be a search for my underpants.

Damn spies, always stealing people's underpants! What do they do with them all?

Duoae wrote:
joh3n wrote:
There is no way that Valve / Portal developers will be able to make another game (even of portal's size) in less than 1 year's time.

I don't agree. The engine is built, as are the graphics. I mean that the DLC will simply be another 10 or so levels. I certainly believe certain test chambers didnt make the cut for brevity's sake, and they can be reborn through DLC. Valve will want to do them for free, MS will disagree, and it'll cost us $5 to play.

I don't know if you misread what i wrote... but i agreed with your DLC statement. I disagreed with Adam's statement that Episode three will come released with a separate title that expands on the game (storyline etc).

Yup, I misread you. Sorry!

- Two prominent gaming magazines will perish.

One of these will be GFW, which will lead into a new round of "PC Gaming is Dead!" forum spam.

Or, alternatively phrased - PC gaming will die... again.

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