The 2007 Bold Predictions

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After referencing my last batch of bold predictions a couple weeks ago, I was both praised for my amazing foresight and derided for making obvious predictions that anyone could have called. Well guess what boys and girls? You didn't and I did. That makes me the bold knight, galloping into the future and you the scared little squire, hiding behind a rock and making catcalls. Maybe this year some of you heckling from the cheap seats will step up and make your own predictions. We'll see who gets to wear the funny hat when the dust clears on 2007. My first prediction? It will be me.

- The PS3 price will drop faster than the PS2 did in North America. Even sooner in Japan. A $50 price drop on both models by the end of the year.

- The Xbox 360 will refresh the premium model with a larger hard-drive and new ports. Two SKUs will continue in the market. The "core" pack will remain without a hard-drive or HDMI port as Microsoft pushes the price for entry to the Xbox 360 lower. No price drops this year, expect more value-add bundles.

- The Nintendo Wii will continue to sell well and gain ground on the Xbox 360 sale numbers, coming within 1 million by the end of the year. Game releases will trickle through to March with the new Metroid leading the second wave of AAA releases. Mario Galaxies will come out around Christmas. No price drops or new models of the Wii will happen this year.

- Windows Vista will be essential for gamers by next Christmas. PC game stability will improve and graphics capabilities will surpass the console by the end of the year.

- Supreme Commander (PC) will gain critical praise from RTS fans and remind us how poor the market for hardcore RTS games is. Command and Conquer 3 (PC, 360) will do much, much better thanks to a more casual approach and KANE.

- Master Chief will not remove his helmet in Halo 3. If he does, you still won't see his face.

- The Vanguard launch will be a catastrophe, adding to the stable of games SOE has destroyed with crappy launches before they even get a chance to gain an audience.

- The PS3 will suffer from a weak release list until March, redeeming itself with an aggressive push for large, downloadable games. Tekken 5 and Gran Turismo HD are just the beginning.

- There will be a PSP refresh this year, much like the DS Lite. UMD support will remain, but a built-in hard-drive will drive users toward downloaded software straight to the PSP -- without needing a PS3 or PC to facilitate the transfer. The form factor will shrink, the screen will support touch functionality and battery life will improve.

- Age of Conan will bring the MMORPG genre as close to "3rd generation design" as we've seen so far. It will be a system hog and the single player mode will fall short of what we expect from Funcom, but it will gain a profitable following.

- Guitar Hero will not move systems for the Xbox 360 like it does the PS2. Excitement and sales surrounding the series will cool on all systems.

- Grand Theft Auto IV will be delayed until next year. A rare occurrence for Rockstar.

- Metal Gear Solid IV will rock your socks "… on the PS3 first with the Xbox 360 following six months later.

- Crysis will look good, but the gameplay will come up short after four hours.

- Alan Wake? Not this year.

- Video game conventions will sprout like mushrooms, spreading fan attention thin and leaving the big companies doing their own events. Smaller publishers and developers will look for more online momentum than ever before.

- Sony will lean on the PS2 with a stronger release list than expected this year as the PS3 gains traction. The PS3 will remain locked in 3rd through to 2008.

- Bill Harris will be hired as an image consultant for Sony, but only because they beat Electronic Arts to the punch.

We'll dig up the time capsule late this year to revel in my brilliance. Got any predictions of your own? Now is the time to sound off! I'll get the shovel.

Comments

shihonage wrote:

John Romero and his adopted daughter Rhaluka will have a son. They will call him "Mancubus", due to resemblance.

If I had a prize to award, you'd get it. Unfortunately, I own nothing at all that resembles a prize.

Kurrelgyre
- Microsoft will introduce the ability to use any attached USB hard drive for music and video storage with the Xbox 360. It will require formatting the drive specifically for the '360 and cost 4000 points.

You are mad. Microsoft's DRM task force and lawyers will go completely out of their minds if anyone even brings this idea up... ever. This stuff will be locked down to Microsoft hardware FOREVER! Even games you bought will be locked to your old, busted hardware you sent in for repair FOREVER (cue kid from Goonies). Right PXAbstraction?

Media streaming will be forwards from the computer, never backwards to the computer.

Predictions:
- RTS games will not take root on the consoles. In order for Live Anywhere to be viable there has to be someone on the PC side playing games, and the hard core RTS people will be there in spades. The only way to keep it that way is to keep a mouse from ever mating with a 360. Sadly, this cripples the appeal C&C 3's telestrator and voice-over features because no one is playing on the 360. This kills pro gaming as a draw for spectators on the 360. Game, set, match. Essentially, PC and console gamers can see each other playing but rarely interact.

- Huxley never comes out.

- Bethesda re-launches Oblivion to yawns on the PS3 and strikes out with an over-priced expansion to Oblivion on 360. It is four years before we see another Elder Scrolls Game.

- Fallout 3 announces in early 2008, not '07. It is over the top violent, gritty, and features drug use and sexual content... From a nerd perspective. It's got no balls and is laughed into a corner by mainstream gamers. Fallout 3 fans weap silently in a seperate corner and curse Bethesda's Democratic funding for being pussies.

- Poor QC on a Sony download bricks way more PS3s than 360s ever done been bricked a'fore.

- More people over 40 own Wiis than those between 18 and 32. The demographics of Nintendo gaming significantly changes and gaming as we know it changes because of it. To what, I'm not sure.

I still think MS or Sony will copy Nintendo's Wii controller verbatim. Others may copy it as well like Apple or set top box manufacturers.

Spore will be released in 2k8. It won't do as well as Sims or SimCity. It will a big hardcore hit though.

Wii will continue to sell like hotcakes because it offers a new experience for the masses. Wii gets a price drop by the end of the year also to accelerate this rapid adoption. I say it tops the 360 by end of year.

PS3 will do better than the media thinks right now. IT just needs games and time for BR to kick in.

Sony allows Unreal 2k7 to be played with mouse/keyboard on the PS3.

No reason to get Vista for pcgaming this year.

Mac pc market share increases 25%.

Lobo wrote:

If I had a prize to award, you'd get it. Unfortunately, I own nothing at all that resembles a prize.

Thank you, good sir

More employees will split off Blizzard due to creative differences and form their own company, named "Original Games". Their first product will be called "Orcs and Goblins", a MMORPG set in Tolkienesque era, where you can be a mage, hunter, shaman, warlock, paladin, warrior, or a priest.

Well done, sir shiho.

Prediction:
- January 2008, myriads of Goodjers will triumph as they believe they're the new Certisdamus. They will choose to ignore their vast majority of obsolete predictions, instead focussing on the one prediction that made it to truthiness.

Oh, and DNF WILL be released this year. When pressing space bar over a stripper, the Duke will say: "Hmm... I love the smell of oogaba in the morning..."

My very very sad predictions.

- Quake wars will suck
- No Battlefield Clone will get as big and good as BF2.
- By the end of the year there still won't be a great First Person Melee game.

Now I just hope I am so awesomely wrong.

- Lucasarts will announce a new Star Wars game set in the KOTOR era as well as a Jedi Knight game for the Wii that looks a lot like the Star Wars Trilogy Arcade game. Both of these releases will be timed with the late fall release of the HD-DVD release of the theatrical cuts of Star Wars Episodes 1 - 3. Jar Jar will still be annoying, even in crystal clear 1080p resolution.

- Microsoft will make a big push with their XNA Game Studio to the homebrew/indie development community. This will include announcements of partnerships with the Independant Game Festival and contests to entice/encourage XBLA game development. Microsoft's vision of a "YouTube of Gaming" will not live up to expectations as derivative clones of Geometry Wars and Super Mario Bros. are created.

- Mass Effect will outsell Bioshock by 10:1 and will garner GOTY praise while Bioshock will only garner critical acclaim but not reach mainstream appeal.

- Nintendo will announce a Brain Age Wii Edition with 4-player Internet-capable multiplayer and DS integration. The DS integration will include a downloaded version of Brain Age Wii so that DS users can train their brain and improve their score while the TV is in use for something else.

- Sony will continue to hemorrage money on the PS3 and PSP. Next Christmas, the hugely successful Spiderman3 movie will be bundled in with both platforms. Sony will continue to lag in third place throughout 2008. Gran Turismo 5 will be released in a buggy form in mid-2008 with downloadable content and significant patches.

- Microsoft's Video Marketplace will prove more successful than the HD-DVD addon drive and become a viable third option in the HD-DVD/BluRay war. Hollywood studios will finally take notice of Microsoft's X360 "rental" DRM technology as well as the huge profits that they can make by taking advantage of a digital download service. Smaller Mom&Pop video store owners begin to cry as its one more nail in their coffin.

- "Episodic content" will actually become episodic rather than sporadic but will unfortunately lead to short, unsatisfying gaming experiences. Rabid customers will make Half-Life Episode2/Portal/Team Fortress2 a huge success but the buzz of Sam & Max's revival will die off by the third episode.

wordsmythe wrote:
Fedaykin98 wrote:

Guitar Hero for the Wii, featuring wireless controllers!

Will the Wii know when you smash the controller on the stage?

I would pay almost any amount of money for on-demand smashing.

thewanderer14 wrote:

You are mad. Microsoft's DRM task force and lawyers will go completely out of their minds if anyone even brings this idea up... ever. This stuff will be locked down to Microsoft hardware FOREVER! Even games you bought will be locked to your old, busted hardware you sent in for repair FOREVER (cue kid from Goonies). Right PXAbstraction?

Did I mention my new site?

thewanderer14 wrote:

Bethesda re-launches Oblivion to yawns on the PS3 and strikes out with an over-priced expansion to Oblivion on 360. It is four years before we see another Elder Scrolls Game.

It'll launch on the PS3 with extra content. Goodjers will complain that they are expected to buy a new system if they want to play more of a game they already bought. They'll call for XBL updates for their old copies. They won't get them.

I'll get around to beating Betrayal at Krondor in 2007. (Ok, not really. I just don't have that kind of attention span. Maybe I'll pick up one of Feist's more recent books and give it a read instead.)

LockAndLoad wrote:

- "Episodic content" will actually become episodic rather than sporadic but will unfortunately lead to short, unsatisfying gaming experiences. Rabid customers will make Half-Life Episode2/Portal/Team Fortress2 a huge success but the buzz of Sam & Max's revival will die off by the third episode.

I agree - despite everyone and their dog writing articles on why episodic content is good for the future of the gaming industry, I think it's bull. It's going to attempt a major take-off, it will fail, and no one will speak of it again.

Danjo Olivaw wrote:
Huxley will be revolutionary with its implementation of a FPS and an MMO.

That revolution has come and gone.

Shush you.

- Huxley never comes out.

You too.

wordsmythe wrote:
thewanderer14 wrote:

Bethesda re-launches Oblivion to yawns on the PS3 and strikes out with an over-priced expansion to Oblivion on 360. It is four years before we see another Elder Scrolls Game.

It'll launch on the PS3 with extra content. Goodjers will complain that they are expected to buy a new system if they want to play more of a game they already bought. They'll call for XBL updates for their old copies. They won't get them.

We already have the extra content that is in the PS3 version on XBL for download.

No no, the re-launch with overpriced expansion.

Wait, who had "Interest in Hellgate: London will die out when they annonce that it's a subscription based MMMORPG?" I think he or she is owed quite a bit of dap at the moment.

Ms will release a handheld gaming system, but it will only play xbla games.

Also plays mp3s.

Doesn't cost much either, practically giving them away.

Apple games will get a look-in next year (I hope when my shiny Mac Pro turns up)

Rat Boy wrote:

Wait, who had "Interest in Hellgate: London will die out when they annonce that it's a subscription based MMMORPG?" I think he or she is owed quite a bit of dap at the moment.

That is quite a shock, especially at this late date. If they always planned it this way, then I guess it could be okay. Sure does seem strange.

I boldly predict that in 2007 a new rule will be established that whatever happens through the pillow of hetrosexuality will be deemed hetrosexual. (think the hole in the sheet rule)

I'd be avoiding ANY broken piece of software or shabbily built hardware. My prediction is that people will continue to purchase such broken gaming merchandise. Bugs in software or flaws in hardware that exist so they can meet some fantasy "deadline" or "production budget" shouldn't be acceptable to the masses. Only by refusing to purchase this stuff will these companies get the fact that they need to hold themselves to a much higher standard. Speaking as a craftsman, I'd be out of buisness in a week if I conducted my affairs as poorly as the top publishers and console shops do.

You can paint it the brightest of "Resale Red" but if the engine don't turn, it don't sell.

those are just my 4 maple leaves.

Cheers

You know, this thread is going to scream for edits, long after the fact. I'm going to lock it down.