FF2011: Official GWJFFL (non-keeper) signup and discussion thread

garion333 wrote:
Grumpicus wrote:

Reminder...

Grumpicus wrote:

GWJFFL3 will draft on Wednesday, September 7 at 9pm Central.

Have a gameplan for this draft, Grumps? :P

I have one. It's called "don't draft people who are unlikely to play." Beyond that ...

rabbit wrote:

I have one. It's called "don't draft people who are unlikely to play."

IMAGE(http://manningface.s3.amazonaws.com/images/1291100011_peyton.jpg)

Yeah, eXACtly. Also, Arian Foster's "anti-awesome" hamstring comes to mind.

IMAGE(http://a3.img.mobypicture.com/5780493af65815d4868f1a56d16d65e2_view.jpg)

*Legion* wrote:
rabbit wrote:

I have one. It's called "don't draft people who are unlikely to play."

IMAGE(http://manningface.s3.amazonaws.com/images/1291100011_peyton.jpg)

Let me preface the following rant by disclosing that I'm a hardcore, never miss a game Indy Colts fan.

Indianapolis is in trouble this year. Actually, let me revise that...they were in trouble last year. The dominant Colts we all know and love/hate were built on a core of draft picks that were almost unprecedented in their success rate from 1996-2003. Seven of the eight first round draft picks made during that era have went on to multiple pro-bowl appearances, along with Dallas Clark, a non-first round pick but perennial pro-bowler. They've also had ridiculous success with late round or undrafted players such as Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday and Gary Brackett. This string of successful drafting has led to a team that, from 2003-2009, is only matched by the team success (DVOA for FOA readers) of the 1992-98 SF 49'ers. However, the end started a long time ago for the Colts. Since 2005, only a total of two of their draft picks have made the Pro Bowl (Joseph Addai and Antoine Bethea). Since Tarik Glenn, long a staple of a stout O-line, surprised the team with his retirement in 2007, the O-line has gotten worse with each following year. Draft busts such as Tony Ugoh (whom the Colts actually traded up to draft) and Mike Pollak have failed to rectify the situation. Since 2005, only a total of two of their draft picks have made the Pro Bowl (Joseph Addai and Antoine Bethea). (Thanks to the Football Outsiders almanac for random details and that little tidbit about the 49'ers)

The end for the Colts began last year. Not only did they notch their fewest wins since 2000 when they went 6-10 in Manning's third season, the advanced statistics show the regression is even worse than that. The offense that had ranked no worse than third from 2000 to 2009 was ranked 6th last year. Even worse, the defense has continued its long slide down, ranking 24th among all NFL teams. In the offseason, Manning issues aside, the Colts have done little to address any of these issues, or even shown that they understand the issues exist. Manning was able to mask the regression last year, but the offense is totally changed due to the O-line problems. It has gone from an offense that could bite defenses on all fronts to one that is almost entirely reliant on Manning's arm, and much shorter throws than were once common due to the inability of the O-line to provide the needed protection.

I'm guilty of it myself, owning Austin Collie and Dallas Clark in the keeper league, and Reggie Wayne in GWJFFL2, but if you have ANY Colts players on your roster (worst of all, Manning), hold on for a wild ride this year. Manning's surgeries have shown that he's not the Superman he's been portrayed as for a decade now. Regardless, with or without him, this team is going to struggle this year. Father time is catching up with the few players left who have helped mask the team-wide struggles, and the clock's about to strike midnight for the Colts, perhaps on the fantasy side most of all.

Hey, don't remind me how good the 49ers used to be. It still hurts.

Stele wrote:

Hey, don't remind me how good the 49ers used to be. It still hurts. :(

Yeah, well all good things must come to an end, right? Unless you're a Patriots fan, that is.

Landshrk83 wrote:
Stele wrote:

Hey, don't remind me how good the 49ers used to be. It still hurts. :(

Yeah, well all good things must come to an end, right? Unless you're a Patriots fan, that is.

Yes, but those Pats fans waiting a good damn long time to have a winning team. I mean hell, pre-belichek, what was the high point? Getting eaten by the 85 Bears?

gizmo wrote:
Landshrk83 wrote:
Stele wrote:

Hey, don't remind me how good the 49ers used to be. It still hurts. :(

Yeah, well all good things must come to an end, right? Unless you're a Patriots fan, that is.

Yes, but those Pats fans waiting a good damn long time to have a winning team. I mean hell, pre-belichek, what was the high point? Getting eaten by the 85 Bears?

Don't worry, one day Brady(*) will just ascend to Heaven to take JC's place and the PATs will be grounded again.

(*This is not a knock on Brady he deserves the accolades)

Just ran the mock draft on fleaflicker -- extremely good drafting app.

Landshrk83 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
rabbit wrote:

I have one. It's called "don't draft people who are unlikely to play."

IMAGE(http://manningface.s3.amazonaws.com/images/1291100011_peyton.jpg)

Let me preface the following rant by disclosing that I'm a hardcore, never miss a game Indy Colts fan.

Indianapolis is in trouble this year. Actually, let me revise that...they were in trouble last year. The dominant Colts we all know and love/hate were built on a core of draft picks that were almost unprecedented in their success rate from 1996-2003. Seven of the eight first round draft picks made during that era have went on to multiple pro-bowl appearances, along with Dallas Clark, a non-first round pick but perennial pro-bowler. They've also had ridiculous success with late round or undrafted players such as Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday and Gary Brackett. This string of successful drafting has led to a team that, from 2003-2009, is only matched by the team success (DVOA for FOA readers) of the 1992-98 SF 49'ers. However, the end started a long time ago for the Colts. Since 2005, only a total of two of their draft picks have made the Pro Bowl (Joseph Addai and Antoine Bethea). Since Tarik Glenn, long a staple of a stout O-line, surprised the team with his retirement in 2007, the O-line has gotten worse with each following year. Draft busts such as Tony Ugoh (whom the Colts actually traded up to draft) and Mike Pollak have failed to rectify the situation. Since 2005, only a total of two of their draft picks have made the Pro Bowl (Joseph Addai and Antoine Bethea). (Thanks to the Football Outsiders almanac for random details and that little tidbit about the 49'ers)

The end for the Colts began last year. Not only did they notch their fewest wins since 2000 when they went 6-10 in Manning's third season, the advanced statistics show the regression is even worse than that. The offense that had ranked no worse than third from 2000 to 2009 was ranked 6th last year. Even worse, the defense has continued its long slide down, ranking 24th among all NFL teams. In the offseason, Manning issues aside, the Colts have done little to address any of these issues, or even shown that they understand the issues exist. Manning was able to mask the regression last year, but the offense is totally changed due to the O-line problems. It has gone from an offense that could bite defenses on all fronts to one that is almost entirely reliant on Manning's arm, and much shorter throws than were once common due to the inability of the O-line to provide the needed protection.

I'm guilty of it myself, owning Austin Collie and Dallas Clark in the keeper league, and Reggie Wayne in GWJFFL2, but if you have ANY Colts players on your roster (worst of all, Manning), hold on for a wild ride this year. Manning's surgeries have shown that he's not the Superman he's been portrayed as for a decade now. Regardless, with or without him, this team is going to struggle this year. Father time is catching up with the few players left who have helped mask the team-wide struggles, and the clock's about to strike midnight for the Colts, perhaps on the fantasy side most of all.

My guess is that They pull a '98 Spurs and tank the season for Andrew Luck. That'd be brilliant, so I hope that they don't do it.

Isn't Manning under contract for like another 4-5 years? I don't think they would spent a #1 pick on a QB at this point, unless something is irreparably wrong with his neck.

I do agree with Landshark on the Colts. Their decline has been entirely predictable except by their management apparently. I thought they were done last year but Manning was superhuman and held it together with passes and duct tape. From the games I watched no other player had us much of a burden carrying the whole team, both sides of the ball, as he did. I don't think he'll be able to do it again this year.

LeapingGnome wrote:

Isn't Manning under contract for like another 4-5 years? I don't think they would spent a #1 pick on a QB at this point, unless something is irreparably wrong with his neck.

If they cut him now they could save something like $50 mil. If they cut him before February they save $28 mil. It may seem like a drastic step, but with the neck problem lingering and looking worse you can bet they are calculating their percentages of him coming back successfully right now.

Do you guys get on vent during the draft or do you just draft in silence?

Jolly Bill wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Isn't Manning under contract for like another 4-5 years? I don't think they would spent a #1 pick on a QB at this point, unless something is irreparably wrong with his neck.

If they cut him now they could save something like $50 mil. If they cut him before February they save $28 mil. It may seem like a drastic step, but with the neck problem lingering and looking worse you can bet they are calculating their percentages of him coming back successfully right now.

Zero chance of him getting cut, even if he was out the whole year. Just saying.

iaintgotnopants wrote:

Do you guys get on vent during the draft or do you just draft in silence?

IMAGE(http://cdnet.myxer.com/tn/c/530357/big/?t=20081219200933)

karmajay wrote:
Jolly Bill wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Isn't Manning under contract for like another 4-5 years? I don't think they would spent a #1 pick on a QB at this point, unless something is irreparably wrong with his neck.

If they cut him now they could save something like $50 mil. If they cut him before February they save $28 mil. It may seem like a drastic step, but with the neck problem lingering and looking worse you can bet they are calculating their percentages of him coming back successfully right now.

Zero chance of him getting cut, even if he was out the whole year. Just saying.

Seriously. The Polian dictatorship is far too proud to ever let something like that happen.

garion333 wrote:

Have a gameplan for this draft, Grumps? :P

Considering I'm just now getting around to thinking about this after a week, no. Considering I had a whole week to think about it and didn't, I deserve what I get.

Edit: Of course, my unofficial goals are to not screw up promotion/relegation so I somewhat aim to 1) not come in top two in any league that's not *K or *1 and to 2) not come in bottom three in any league that's not *K or *3. Mediocrity FTW!

Edit2: No, that doesn't mean I'd ever intentionally tank a game. It just means that I'm much more easily contented with coming in 3rd or lower in the "lower" leagues.

iaintgotnopants wrote:

Do you guys get on vent during the draft or do you just draft in silence?

There has consistently been 3-6 people in vent for the past three drafts. Personally, I don't say much but if, for example, you need me to pause the draft due to extenuating circumstances (it hasn't happened yet and your reason better be damn good), Vent will be your best bet of making it happen.

Think we're setting up in Boardgames 3 room now.

Well that was one of the fastest (1:27), and strangest most unpredictable, drafts I've ever participated in.

Results.

Don't forget that the season starts tomorrow. Set your lineups if you have Saints or Packers.

Unlike last year, I managed to avoid drafting 2 QBs with the same bye week.

So yay me!!

Thanks Grumpicus for arranging all of this and doing a darned good impression of a cat-herder.

I feel pretty good about my choices. Though, I think my RBs are potentially hit-or-miss. I really want Felix Jones to break out this season, and my gut tells me this is his time to shine.

Grumpicus wrote:

Well that was one of the fastest (1:27), and strangest most unpredictable, drafts I've ever participated in.

Results.

Don't forget that the season starts tomorrow. Set your lineups if you have Saints or Packers.

Yeah, definitely different with Draft #2 and #3 picking QBs in the early rounds.

Wow, that was quite the QB run.

Edit: The Wardens took Roddy White and Matt Ryan? Is dammitsammit (sp?) back?

Given the point per catch, I feel ok about my draft. Especially foiling Zacny's Brady with my Welker pickup.

Rabbit, you and Zacny foiled my plans for a Brady/Welker combo - that's why I went with Ryan/White instead. Good luck to everyone, but I also hope you all lose.

A few predictions for the season for me to look back on and feel foolish about at the end of the year:

-San Diego is going to air it to a tune we haven't seen since the '07 Pats. The championship team of each fantasy league is going to have some combo of Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson and/or Antonio Gates.
-Indianapolis is going to disappoint across the board, and Joseph Addai's low preseason ranking is going to prove justified.
-Matt Ryan will finish the year as a top 5 fantasy QB, as will either Josh Freeman, Matt Stafford, or Joe Flacco. Philip Rivers finishes the year as the number 1 QB by a large margin.

The preseason is finally over. On to week 1!

Landshrk83 wrote:

Matt Ryan will finish the year as a top 5 fantasy QB, as will either Josh Freeman, Matt Stafford, or Joe Flacco. Philip Rivers finishes the year as the number 1 QB by a large margin.

Having taken a big bet on Freeman -- from your lips to god's ears.

I have to say, having used almost exclusively Yahoo for FF leagues before, I''m kind of in love with FleaFlicker. Setting my lineups this morning was ludicrously easy and the interface is all just so simple and clean. Wish there was an iOS app for it, but its even solid just through the browser on my phone.

I love how prominently they predict things like Rob Zacny's team folding this week. (rubs hands together).

rabbit wrote:
Landshrk83 wrote:

Matt Ryan will finish the year as a top 5 fantasy QB, as will either Josh Freeman, Matt Stafford, or Joe Flacco. Philip Rivers finishes the year as the number 1 QB by a large margin.

Having taken a big bet on Freeman -- from your lips to god's ears.

I have to say, having used almost exclusively Yahoo for FF leagues before, I''m kind of in love with FleaFlicker. Setting my lineups this morning was ludicrously easy and the interface is all just so simple and clean. Wish there was an iOS app for it, but its even solid just through the browser on my phone.

I love how prominently they predict things like Rob Zacny's team folding this week. (rubs hands together).

Fleaflicker is renowned for having terrible predictions.

In before the lock!