Wisconsin State Senate Recalls

Malor wrote:

Also true. And yes, probably bigger than those other two items; those are sticks that the supercitizens can use to beat ordinary humans.

Interestingly enough, I'm starting to come around to the idea that corporations themselves are sticks. They are not individuals with sentience or will. They are simply bundles of contracts with considerable resources behind them. The key is separating those resources from the hands of the few actors who aim to use them against the interests of corporate employees, shareholders, customers, and national citizens. A billionaire CEO should not be allowed to use the resources of a corporation he doesn't own to affect policy to his narrow benefit.

But... But... Jobs!

I miss the days when "think of the children" was the only statement that ended all rational debate and settled the matter for far-right extremists. Now they've added "job creation" to that list as well. I wonder what the third weapon will be. Thankfully "defense of marriage" seems to have slipped through their fingers, but I'm sure they'll end up with something even worse.

Americans for Prosperity have acknowledged that the misdated mailings are legit, though they insist that the wrong date resulted from a printing mistake.

I wonder what will get the blame for those mis-printed mailers being sent to Democratic households in districts which have elections next week.

Dimmerswitch wrote:

Americans for Prosperity have acknowledged that the misdated mailings are legit, though they insist that the wrong date resulted from a printing mistake.

I wonder what will get the blame for those mis-printed mailers being sent to Democratic households in districts which have elections next week.

Clearly this was a conspiracy by biased members of a postal workers union that deliberately sent them to Democratic households in an effort to make AfP look bad.

Two of the Democrats targeted by the AfP mailings have filed complaints with the Government Accountability Board (so far).

I would like the GAB investigation to get a full list of who the mis-dated mailer was sent to. If it was an honest mistake, surely the majority of recipients will be registered Republicans.

Wisconsin's DMV announced today that not only will all existing locations remain open, but they will be adding four more locations.

Good for them - regardless of whether the allegations are true that Democratic districts had been targeted by closures, requiring voters to have a DMV-issued ID card and then closing locations would be a mistake likely to disenfranchise people. I would have been against the closures even if they were exclusively within predominantly-Republican districts, and am glad to see that this particular piece of policy was changed before anyone was affected.

I'm not a Wisconsinite, so my opinion is irrelevant, but I'd have been horrified at the thought of closing DMVs in Republican districts. Suppressing voters is wrong. It's about as wrong as you get in a democracy.

Minneapolis Star-Tribune article[/url]]The Democracy Campaign estimated total spending on all nine races to be what director Mike McCabe called an "absolutely jaw-dropping" $31.5 million. That's nearly as much as the $37 million spent in last year's governor's race won by Republican Scott Walker.

"Candidates are barely being heard from," McCabe said. "They're being outspent on the order of 5-1 by interest groups that have a near monopoly on campaign spending."

Of the total, only about $5 million was spent by the candidates.

I hate sh*t like this.

State Sen. Dale Schultz claims he was tricked by Governor Walker into missing the chance to amend 2011 Wisconsin Act 10 back in February.

Also noteworthy: Senator Schultz backpedaled his criticism somewhat after getting calls this week from Governor Walker, Senate President Ellis, and Senate Majority Leader Fitzgerald.

Wonder what was said to bring him back into line?

[Edit to add: I hate the amounts of third-party political spending as well. Thanks a bunch, Citizens United.]

Good writeup handicapping today's recall elections.

Looking like this will be down to the wire.

Five of the six races have been called.

Current count:

GOP holds on to three (3) districts - Cowles, Harsdorf, and Olsen win.

Dems knock out Kapanke and Hopper.

The last district is Pasch (DEM) vs. Darling (REP). At the current time, Pasch is up by 4%. However, Waukesha is only reporting 1 of 11 precincts.

Waukesha was the area where clerk Kathy Nickolaus discovered 7,000 votes a couple of days later that put Prosser back on the WI Supreme Court.

The Democrats need to win Darling's seat and hold against the GOP in the next round of recalls in order to gain a majority in the WI Senate.

UPDATE: Kathy Nickolaus is now saying she won't release the results from Waukesha for at least another hour. Um... why?

Dimmerswitch wrote:

I simply cannot believe that the GAB has allowed Kathy Nickolaus to remain in office. I hope that she's at least on the same tabulation-software-with-audit-trail that the rest of the state uses, and hasn't been allowed to keep the master result list on her private laptop.

Lots of speculation flying around right now, including allegations that Kathy Nickolaus won't be reporting any more results for at least three hours. If that turns out to be true, I'd like to see Milwaukee County announce they'll release their results once Waukesha County finishes their tabulation.

My expectation right now is that Kathy will deliver Senate District 8 for Alberta Darling. I expect a recount or two (but no result changes), and would still like a thorough investigation of all elections Kathy Nickolaus has presided over as Waukesha County Clerk.

I would hope that Nicholaus' statement that she is holding the reporting of the votes leads to a thorough investigation.

Something is terribly wrong when a clerk who has a history of - shall we say - unfortunate events can suddenly just hold the reporting of votes on a whim.

At the very least she better have one damn good reason for withholding the vote count.

I simply cannot believe that the GAB has allowed Kathy Nickolaus to remain in office. I hope that she's at least on the same tabulation-software-with-audit-trail that the rest of the state uses, and hasn't been allowed to keep the master result list on her private laptop.

Lots of speculation flying around right now, including allegations that Kathy Nickolaus won't be reporting any more results for at least three hours. If that turns out to be true, I'd like to see Milwaukee County announce they'll release their results once Waukesha County finishes their tabulation.

My expectation right now is that Kathy will deliver Senate District 8 for Alberta Darling. I expect a recount or two (but no result changes), and would still like a thorough investigation of all elections Kathy Nickolaus has presided over as Waukesha County Clerk.

[Edit to add: it looks like Waukesha County may have effectively blocked accurate exit polling. To the best of my knowledge (so far), that's the only county which did so today.]

Looks like those allegations were off the mark - Waukesha County has now reported 10 of 11 districts, giving GOP incumbent Alberta Darling a 2,628 vote lead. Which, according to projections Nate Silver, ought to win her the election by roughly 1800 votes.

Not sure why one precinct is still being held back in Waukesha County, though.

Still want an audit, and I think the GAB needs to remove Kathy Nickolaus from office. She's incompetent (at best).

[Edit to add: have to head to bed, but had this happy thought - even if the Democrats just picked up two seats in today's recalls, that may make Dale Schultz the most powerful man in the State Senate. You remember Senator Schultz? He's the one who voted against the collective bargaining bill in spite of heavy GOP pressure, and indicated last week that he was tricked into missing his opportunity to amend that same bill by Governor Walker & company. Even in the worst case, this count stack up to a win.]

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/127444493.html

What a tool Graeme Zielinski is. With no evidence whatsoever, he accuses Nickolaus of "tampering". She probably shouldn't have the job she does, but to make stuff up just because you don't like the results is pathetic.

What a win for the GOP. They fought back the best shot the Democrats (and the public unions, and Organizing for America) could give and still have the majority in the Senate. After next week we could be right back to 19-14 if the 2 Democrats being recalled fall.

The majority of Wisconsin has spoken loud and clear. Between Prosser being re-elected and the GOP holding the majority in the Senate, voters have stated that they like the direction the state is going in and have confidence in those leading the way.

Schultz's impact is overblown. The controversial items have already been taken care of. And if Simac wins next week, you then have a 18-15 split and Schultz won't matter at all anyways.

What a win for the GOP. They fought back the best shot the Democrats (and the public unions, and Organizing for America) could give and still have the majority in the Senate. After next week we could be right back to 19-14 if the 2 Democrats being recalled fall.

I don't know that I'd call losing two seats a "win". Certainly not a "loss", but then I wouldn't characterize this entire debacle as anything but a loss for the WI residents.

MattDaddy wrote:

What a win for the GOP. They fought back the best shot the Democrats (and the public unions, and Organizing for America) could give and still have the majority in the Senate. After next week we could be right back to 19-14 if the 2 Democrats being recalled fall.

The majority of Wisconsin has spoken loud and clear. Between Prosser being re-elected and the GOP holding the majority in the Senate, voters have stated that they like the direction the state is going in and have confidence in those leading the way.

I should point out that while Matt's a minority voice here, he's certainly not in my building (I've heard cheers from more than one office), and apparently he's not in the state of Wisconsin. I'm constantly surprised at the loathing the middle class has developed for Unions.

The people have spoken. If you don't like it, leave or vote with your wallet. I already canceled my media coverage of the Great Taste of the Midwest over this, and Wisconsin just got added to Utah and Arizona as states I won't spend tourism dollars in.

MattDaddy wrote:

What a win for the GOP. They fought back the best shot the Democrats (and the public unions, and Organizing for America) could give and still have the majority in the Senate. After next week we could be right back to 19-14 if the 2 Democrats being recalled fall.

The majority of Wisconsin has spoken loud and clear. Between Prosser being re-elected and the GOP holding the majority in the Senate, voters have stated that they like the direction the state is going in and have confidence in those leading the way.

I'm not sure that's the conclusion to draw from last night's results. Here are the relevant districts, and how they voted in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election versus yesterday's recall.

State Senate District 2: R+10 [color=red]R+22[/color] - total change [color=red]R+12[/color]
State Senate District 8: R+10 [color=red]R+9[/color] - total change [color=blue]D+1[/color]
State Senate District 10: R+9 [color=red]R+16[/color] - total change [color=red]R+7[/color]
State Senate District 14: R+8 [color=red]R+4[/color] - total change [color=blue]D+4[/color]
State Senate District 18: R+10 [color=blue]D+2[/color] - total change [color=blue]D+12[/color]
State Senate District 32: D+9 [color=blue]D+10[/color] - total change [color=blue]D+1[/color]

While Cowles and Harsdorf are sent back by stronger results from their respective districts, all others seem to indicate weakening Republican support at best. That list also shows what a tough lineup these recall elections were - with the exception of District 32, those are all reasonably strong Republican districts.

Statewide poll less than a month ago[/url]]* 55% are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the state today, a new high for the UW Badger Poll.
* 81% said Wisconsin is in bad times economically and 50% expect it will be in about the same economic condition in the next 12 months, while 20% said things will get worse.
* Nearly two-thirds of Wisconsinites feel that state government is run for the benefit of a few big interests over that of all the people and can only be trusted to do the right thing some of the time.
* 59% disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor.
* 60% disapprove of the way the State Legislature is handling its job.
* 56% disapprove of the job Republicans in the State Legislature are doing.
* 48% disapprove of the job Democrats in the State Legislature are doing.
* Wisconsinites overwhelming think the recall option in the state constitution is a good thing (78%), and 50% said the current recalls of state senators made them feel better about Wisconsin politics.
* 59% of residents statewide preferred that the Democratic state senators remain in office rather than be recalled and 49% said the same of the Republican state senators.

The next Badger poll will be this fall, and I'll be interested to see what changes happen in the intervening months.

Polls and comparisons to past elections don't mean squat today. What matters is that voters choose to keep the Republicans in control. That's a big fail for the Democrats, OFA, and the unions, whose goal was to retake control of the Senate. You can try and spin that into something else if it makes you feel better, but the numbers that matter (election results) show the people of WI are behind what Walker & Co. are doing.

MattDaddy wrote:

Polls and comparisons to past elections don't mean squat today. What matters is that voters choose to keep the Republicans in control. That's a big fail for the Democrats, OFA, and the unions, whose goal was to retake control of the Senate. You can try and spin that into something else if it makes you feel better, but the numbers that matter (election results) show the people of WI are behind what Walker & Co. are doing.

I'm not sure you read my post. Of the six Republican senators up for recall, five are from districts that have strong Republican support. This was always going to be a tough carry.

It's obviously disappointing that we didn't take the Senate, but I don't think the results from last night show that "the people of WI are behind what Walker & Co. are doing", or that this is over.

I would love to be a fly on the wall the next time Dale Schultz gets a call from Governor Walker or the Fitzgeralds - especially if the Democrats hold next week.

Dimmer it does sort've look like spin from team Blue at this point. Matt's right -- Democrats tried to stage a coup and failed, plain and simple.

And given the abject failure the Snyder recall attempt in Michigan has become, I suspect a recall for Walker will be similarly doomed. Inevitable, of course, but doomed.

[bitter] Oh well. At this point the American dream has become "claw as close to the upper class as you can, since the middle class is gone, baby."[/bitter]

MattDaddy wrote:

Polls and comparisons to past elections don't mean squat today. What matters is that voters choose to keep the Republicans in control. That's a big fail for the Democrats, OFA, and the unions, whose goal was to retake control of the Senate. You can try and spin that into something else if it makes you feel better, but the numbers that matter (election results) show the people of WI are behind what Walker & Co. are doing.

I'd say it was a big fail for both parties. The Republicans did something so adverse to a significant portion of the electorates' beliefs that a large recall election was needed. The Democrats failed to carry-through on the recall and capitalize on the idiotic new policies.

Either way, all this does is enforce the view that you can govern for the exclusive benefit of some corner of your base, rather than for the people as a whole.

Seth wrote:

Dimmer it does sort've look like spin from team Blue at this point. Matt's right -- Democrats tried to stage a coup and failed, plain and simple.

I may not be sufficiently clear. Failing to take control of the Senate is definitely a loss for Wisconsin Democrats. The gerrymandering laws that the state legislature rammed through (and Walker signed into law yesterday) will only make it harder to unseat some of these candidates in the future.

But I think characterizing the results as a vindication of Walker's policies isn't supported by the evidence. These results seem more likely to point to an increasingly polarized electorate. People who like Governor Walker's policies really really like them. Folks who are opposed are really really opposed. In districts which have a dominant Republican presence, it looks like the folks who oppose these policies are still outnumbered (statewide, Governor Walker won by 5% of the vote - for all the recall districts yesterday except district 32 his margin was roughly double that).

There's still a lot of work to be done, but it's not over. Not by a long shot.

Dimmerswitch wrote:

There's still a lot of work to be done, but it's not over. Not by a long shot.

Well *I* for one am dejected. So I admire your spirit.

Dimmerswitch wrote:

I'm not sure you read my post.

I did read your posts, all of them. And now I have this song stuck in my head: You spin me right 'round baby right 'round...........

MattDaddy wrote:
Dimmerswitch wrote:

I'm not sure you read my post.

I did read your posts, all of them. And now I have this song stuck in my head: You spin me right 'round baby right 'round...........

Fair enough. When you want to have serious conversations again, I'll be here.

MattDaddy wrote:
Dimmerswitch wrote:

I'm not sure you read my post.

I did read your posts, all of them. And now I have this song stuck in my head: You spin me right 'round baby right 'round...........

Why, did you hear it this morning? I didn't see any of the lyrics in this thread...

Dimmerswitch wrote:
MattDaddy wrote:
Dimmerswitch wrote:

I'm not sure you read my post.

I did read your posts, all of them. And now I have this song stuck in my head: You spin me right 'round baby right 'round...........

Fair enough. When you want to have serious conversations again, I'll be here. :)

What, like the one where you ask if I read your post? Don't be snarky to me like that and expect a serious response.

MattDaddy wrote:
Dimmerswitch wrote:

Fair enough. When you want to have serious conversations again, I'll be here. :)

What, like the one where you ask if I read your post? Don't be snarky to me like that and expect a serious response.

Tone's tough in an online context. I definitely wasn't trying to be snarky, and think that a fair read through the various Wisconsin threads will show I've made a huge effort to avoid using snarky, belittling language - and to refrain from engaging when it's used by others.

If we need to hammer out discussions on tone or argument style, I'm happy to have that conversation, but I'd ask that we do it in PM to avoid derailing the thread.

On topic, is there any way to get a breakdown of the third-party spending by party affiliation, or does the Citizens United decision mean that no longer has to be transparent/auditable? I'm not finding anything concrete, at the moment.

Fair enough. Although I'm not sure how else to take that sentence.