NFL 2011 Draft Thread

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The stories of the draft, as I see it:

* The lockout. What's going on? Will the league year be force-started by the start of the draft, or will the NFL continue to drag their heels? It sounds like the NFL is readying to open the doors on Friday, which could mean that we go the 1st round with no transactions allowed, but then have the league year started and transactions allowed come round 2.

* The quarterbacks. Zero first-tier franchise-to-be quarterbacks, but the biggest, most interesting batch of guys with some black marks the draft has had in a long time. They're so bunched together, and some of them could go anywhere from the late 1st round to round 3.

* The defensive ends. The two guys at the top of the list have medical issues, and there's plenty of 1st round talented guys beneath them. Can the position get up to 10 guys selected in the 1st round?

* Five GMs whose drafts interest me most:

- Gene Smith. Obviously a personal favorite of mine given the team, but his two year track record is better than any other GM's right now. Like the other GMs on this list, he has established his trademark formula. Can he keep hitting with it? And can he maneuver his way to a QB-of-the-future in this draft?

- Bill Belichick. Always one of the best "gamers" of the draft, and an expert at building up more draft ammunition. Well, he's already built up this year, with an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick to go with his own still-intact compliment of picks in those rounds. Will he use some to make a move upwards? Will he continue to move down and pick up even more picks, in this draft or the next? Or will he use the picks he has right now for the next big reloading of the roster? He's always one of the guys to watch closest on draft day. Plus I'm reading his dad's scouting book right now.

- Ted Thompson. Thompson is a man worthy of holding Ron Wolf's old spot. I've been an admirer of his personnel work for a while. His last three 1st round selections have been Bryan Bulaga, B.J. Raji and (in a bold trade-up move) Clay Matthews. And that Aaron Rodgers selection has been working out pretty OK too. Thompson's formula is much similar to Smith's, and though I haven't heard him say it, I bet Smith looked to Thompson as a bit of a model.

- Thomas Dimitroff. Dimitroff is the anti-Thompson/Smith. Both of those guys are disciplined BAP drafters. Dimitroff and his Falcons staff are unabashed needs drafters. In the months leading up to the draft, the team holds meetings they call their "Needs" meetings, in which they identify their team needs. And on draft day, they target and fill them. They hit with Matt Ryan, but injuries have kept the rest of Dimitroff's 1st round picks - Sam Baker, Peria Jerry, and Sean Weatherspoon - from showing yet if they're going to fulfill their potential at the NFL level. But below round 1 in his three drafts, Dimitroff has produced two good starting safeties (William Moore and Thomas DeCloud, a 2nd and 3rd, respectively), and a cornerstone MLB in Curtis Lofton. Needs drafting has worked so far for Dimitroff as the team has done an outstanding job on talent evaluation.

- Bill Polian. Not just a competition committee rule-gamer, but also one of the league's premiere GMs. But Polian has been on one hell of a cold streak:

  • 2007 1st rd: Anthony Gonzalez - slight promise at first but roster fodder with only 12 career starts
  • 2007 2nd rd: traded pick for "Booger" McFarland, who was key for that 2006 run but only lasted that one year before washing out of the league
  • 2008 1st rd: Tony Ugoh (they traded this pick to draft Ugoh in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft) - Swing-and-a-miss attempt at Tarik Glenn's successor
  • 2008 2nd rd: Mike Pollak - Mediocre starter and weak point on line, time likely running low
  • 2009 1st rd: Donald Brown - Addai still has a job because Brown is crap
  • 2009 2nd rd: Fili Moala - Not the guy they were hoping for, but at least produced some last year, still very much at risk of not holding his job
  • 2010 1st rd: Jerry Hughes - So far the most epic of whiffs. A healthy scratch for a whole quarter of the season
  • 2010 2nd rd: Pat Angerer - The best hope of a decent player in this bunch. Will at least compete for a starting OLB job
  • That's four straight drafts with zero true quality starters selected in the first 2 rounds, minus possibly Angerer - and we'll see if Jerry Hughes can even ever get on the field. It hasn't been said out loud much, because Manning alone has been enough to keep the team a contender, but if you're wondering why the Colts have yet to return to the Super Bowl since their 2006 win, start by reading this list.

    Also, honorable mention to Scott Pioli, whose first draft as a Chief wasn't thrilling but his second crack at it last year was, from the early returns, outstanding.

    Here is my "Top 32":

    1. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
    2. Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M)
    3. Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
    4. Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
    5. AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
    6. Robert Quinn (DE, NC)
    7. Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
    8. Cameron Jordan (DE, Cal)
    9. J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
    10. Anthony Castonzo (OT, BC)
    11. Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
    12. Mike Pouncey (G, Florida)
    13. Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
    14. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
    15. Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)
    16. Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri)
    17. Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
    18. Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi State)
    19. Muhammad Wilkerson (DT, Temple)
    20. Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin)
    21. Danny Watkins (OT/OG, Baylor)
    22. Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
    23. Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
    24. Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada)
    25. Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State)
    26. Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State)
    27. Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
    28. Kyle Rudolph (TE, Nortre Dame)
    29. Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA)
    30. Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
    31. Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
    32. Aaron Williams (CB/S, Texas)

    *Legion* wrote:

    It hasn't been said out loud much, because Manning alone has been enough to keep the team a contender, but if you're wondering why the Colts have yet to return to the Super Bowl since their 2006 win, start by reading this list.

    They should of never made the final in the first place

    I think i'm most excited by the potential torrent of boos Mr.Goodell is pummeled with. All the Jets + Giants fans willing the rest of the spectators to join in should be great..... and of course what the Packers do in the first round. I could see some moving up or even down magic. In Thompson we trust.

    My scenarios for the Jaguars draft:

    SCENARIO 1: Amukamara
    Prince Amukamara slips to #16. If mock drafts are to be believed, this was once a possibility but has become more remote. I think they would love Amukamara if he lasted that long, though.

    SCENARIO 2: Kerrigan
    Ryan Kerrigan seems like a "Gene Smith guy", appears to be the right value for pick #16, and addresses a big long-term need for the Jaguars

    SCENARIO 3: Ponder
    On my board, Ponder is worth taking at #16, but he is lower than that on most boards. But what matters is where he is on Gene Smith's board.

    SCENARIO 4: A Gene Smith "high character / try-hard guy"
    Kerrigan fits this mold, but who else, that might not be ranked quite this high on most boards? Danny Watkins? Aaron Williams?

    SCENARIO 5: Trade down with Atlanta, Ponder or Kaepernick
    Atlanta wants a defensive end, and they could trade up to Jacksonville's #16 spot for one. Atlanta and Jacksonville have good personal relations (Mike Smith being the Jags DC before going to Atlanta, the teams being geographically close but separated by conference), so a trade could certainly happen.

    SCENARIO 6: Select a non-QB in the 1st, move up in the 2nd, Kaepernick
    Gene Smith is a value drafter but he has been willing in the past to trade a future pick to make a move up to target a player he wants (as he did with Derek Cox). Could he be targeting a QB in the high 2nd round?

    SCENARIO 7: No QB in rounds 1 or 2
    I believe Gene Smith is targeting a QB in this draft, as they need their next guy to build around. But it's possible Smith doesn't find the value in his picks, and selects a low-round developmental guy instead.

    I'll kick Mayhew in the shin if he passes on Amukamura if he falls to 13.

    Plus I'm reading his dad's scouting book right now.

    I've got that sitting at home. How has it been?

    Here is my "Top 32":

    I like your QB placement, even if some of them might be a bit higher than I would've thought for a top 32. I find it interesting that you have Petersen and Amukamara going back to back.

    If Amukamara starts to drop I wouldn't be surprised to see someone try and jump up once he slips past 10 or 12. By all accounts the Cowboys want to drop back from 9, so there's a spot for someone to reach for a player, perhaps Amukamara. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami drop back either.

    In my overworked and overstressed mind today(2 job interviews and I'm temporarily the technical lead at my current job), I came up with a nickname for Andy Dalton in case he becomes the QB for the Seattle Seahawks. Now this nickname could work for other teams just as well so I want to get it out into the morphic field for others to tap into.

    "The Ginja Ninja"

    Thank you for your time.

    I came close to putting Amukamara above Peterson on my board. I think there's a good chance that Amukamara becomes the better "on an island" corner in the NFL.

    Peterson also brings return man ability, and he has much better ball skills. But a shutdown man corner simply doesn't get many balls thrown their way - Asomugha and Revis combined for a total of 0 INTs last year (though earlier in their careers, both had big INT years before teams stopped throwing their way).

    Peterson is slightly faster straight-line but I think Amukamara is more fluid.

    garion333 wrote:

    I like your QB placement, even if some of them might be a bit higher than I would've thought for a top 32.

    I've said before that, as much as I don't like it, QB has become an inflated cost position. I'm very willing to take shots at QBs in the latter part of round 1 because (a) that gets me out of the brutal signing bonus top 10 range, and (b) because getting a QB any other way is going to be more expensive.

    Some team that could have drafted Kevin Kolb for a 2nd round pick will now pay a lot to get him - a lot more than if they jumped up and took him aggressively with a late 1st. The lesson is: be the guy that drafts the QB, not the guy that has to trade for someone else's pick.

    The league is so haves-vs-have-nots at QB that not having one is death, and I like my chances taking shots at guys in the late 1st round. The Flacco spot. I can take two shots at guys in that spot for the cost of a QB in a top-10 draft spot.

    And, on the topic of QBs, the Ponder man-crush has become complete, as he has ascended to my #1 QB spot. Although it was less of an ascension than Mallett throwing another log on the character/work-ethic question fire and making me a little gun shy.

    I find it interesting that you have Petersen and Amukamara going back to back.

    As I mentioned in my last post, I came very close to putting Amukamara higher. I'm convinced Amukamara will go lower than he should.

    Are we not counting their 2010 appearance vs the Saints? 8-)

    Gah. I meant to say that they haven't won - that Manning remains a one-ring QB - but I was writing on brain autopilot.

    *Legion* wrote:

    It hasn't been said out loud much, because Manning alone has been enough to keep the team a contender, but if you're wondering why the Colts have yet to return to the Super Bowl since their 2006 win, start by reading this list.

    Are we not counting their 2010 appearance vs the Saints?

    *EDIT*

    *Legion* wrote:

    Here is my "Top 32":

    1. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
    2. Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M)
    3. Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
    4. Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
    5. AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
    6. Robert Quinn (DE, NC)
    7. Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
    8. Cameron Jordan (DE, Cal)
    9. J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
    10. Anthony Castonzo (OT, BC)
    11. Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
    12. Mike Pouncey (G, Florida)
    13. Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
    14. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
    15. Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)
    16. Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri)
    17. Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
    18. Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi State)
    19. Muhammad Wilkerson (DT, Temple)
    20. Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin)
    21. Danny Watkins (OT/OG, Baylor)
    22. Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
    23. Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
    24. Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada)
    25. Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State)
    26. Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State)
    27. Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
    28. Kyle Rudolph (TE, Nortre Dame)
    29. Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA)
    30. Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
    31. Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
    32. Aaron Williams (CB/S, Texas)

    I am not a big Cam Newton fan, so I hope this list is right. Sadly, some team will be stupid enough to draft him in the first round, but I know it won't be the Giants

    With that said, I like the list. I can see Ingram going higher, and I also like your selection for the Giants at #19.

    Just to be clear, my Top 32 are the prospects I think should be ranked 1-32, not a mock draft. Cam Newton definitely will be drafted 1st round, and probably #1. I just don't have him ranked as a 1st round prospect myself.

    Here's my one hope for the night (well, and tomorrow evening): The Ravens get a (starting) defensive back over 6 feet tall on the roster.

    *Legion* wrote:

    - Gene Smith. Obviously a personal favorite of mine given the team, but his two year track record is better than any other GM's right now.

    *cough* *cough* Mark Dominik *cough* *cough*

    A draft without trades, this could be interesting.

    No trading picks?

    gizmo wrote:

    No trading picks?

    No trading people.

    garion333 wrote:
    gizmo wrote:

    No trading picks?

    No trading people.

    At least not tonight. But it's definitely a one-day-at-a-time situation for the moment.

    I'm willing to bet if Cam Newton isn't picked #1, he's going to fall very far down the board.

    garion333 wrote:
    gizmo wrote:

    No trading picks?

    No trading people.

    [Charlton Heston voice]THE DRAFT IS PEOPLE![/Charlton Heston voice]

    As I said in the other thread, I'm dying for the Texans to trade up for Von Miller. Tons of Aggies here in Houston would love it. And I had to write something here in order to subscribe.

    MilkmanDanimal wrote:
    *Legion* wrote:

    - Gene Smith. Obviously a personal favorite of mine given the team, but his two year track record is better than any other GM's right now.

    *cough* *cough* Mark Dominik *cough* *cough*

    If McCoy and Price had played whole seasons, there'd be a better argument for Dominik, but those picks (while still promising) haven't cashed in yet.

    The Jags and the Bucs have each spent a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick on DTs in the past two years. But so far, the Jags have the most to show for it with Alualu and Knighton (their 2nd round pick, D'Anthony Smith, missed all of his rookie year last year, sadly).

    I see four definite, no questions asked 2011 starters in the Bucs drafts in Freeman, McCoy, Price, and Williams. I see five for the Jags in Monroe, Britton, Mike Thomas, Alualu, and Knighton. Both teams, of course, have a few other guys who are slated to start for now, and some of them definitely will, but are guys who could easily end up replaced this weekend with new draftees. The guys I just listed are the ones I'm certain of that will have their starting jobs.

    Tampa also has two guys who have already washed out of the team: Xavier Fulton and Brent Bowden, while all 15 of Gene Smith's picks are on the roster and virtually every one is either a starter or a regularly-used role player (like a Rashad Jennings or the 3rd down DEs like Austen Lane).

    Where Tampa has an undisputed feather in their cap, of course, is that they took their shot at the QB position and they landed a winning pick.

    Still, top to bottom, I don't think anyone has done quite as well in the past 2 years as Gene Smith has. But you won't get me to say anything bad about Mark Dominik's two drafts. In fact, he probably belongs on my GMs-to-watch list.

    Fedaykin98 wrote:

    As I said in the other thread, I'm dying for the Texans to trade up for Von Miller. Tons of Aggies here in Houston would love it. And I had to write something here in order to subscribe. ;)

    Trading up for a LB would not be a good move. LBs aren't exactly consistently big-hitters in the draft, so you're throwing away picks on a big risk, particularly because it would cost the Texans most of their draft to move that far up. IMO, you always trade down if you can unless what you really need is right there. I'm hoping somebody throws a series of picks at Tampa for their #20 pick; I'd rather have an extra 2-3-4 than a 1.

    *Legion* wrote:
    MilkmanDanimal wrote:
    *Legion* wrote:

    - Gene Smith. Obviously a personal favorite of mine given the team, but his two year track record is better than any other GM's right now.

    *cough* *cough* Mark Dominik *cough* *cough*

    If McCoy and Price had played whole seasons, there'd be a better argument for Dominik, but those picks (while still promising) haven't cashed in yet.

    The Jags and the Bucs have each spent a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick on DTs in the past two years. But so far, the Jags have the most to show for it with Alualu and Knighton (their 2nd round pick, D'Anthony Smith, missed all of his rookie year last year, sadly).

    I see four definite, no questions asked 2011 starters in the Bucs drafts in Freeman, McCoy, Price, and Williams. I see five for the Jags in Monroe, Britton, Mike Thomas, Alualu, and Knighton. Both teams, of course, have a few other guys who are slated to start for now, and some of them definitely will, but are guys who could easily end up replaced this weekend with new draftees. The guys I just listed are the ones I'm certain of that will have their starting jobs.

    Arrelious Benn also became a starter at WR, and will again assuming his ACL heals up. E.J. Biggers played extremely well at the end of last year, not bad for a 7th-rounder in 2009. I'd also throw LeGarrette Blount onto the pile; a UFA who led rookies in rushing, plus waiver-wire fodder like Ted Larsen and James Lee, who started big chunks of the season on the o-line. At the end of the year last year, there were ten rookies starting for Tampa due to the huge injury problems the team was having, and they played quite well.

    I give Domink a lot of credit not just for his drafting, but his ability to find the right pieces to keep the team glued together last year. Tampa lost two starters each for three consecutive weeks, and continued to win. Being able to dredge up workable players, draft or no, was a huge deal.

    Let's talk about some of the guys I left out of my top 32:

    * Cam Newton - My feelings on Newton purely from on-the-field is that he's a spread QB whose offense consisted of taking a shotgun snap and just looking around for someone open. Remember the old Madden games where the 3 receivers popped up in a little split window at the top? You couldn't see where they were on the field but you could see if there was anyone around them or not? That was Newton at Auburn: look around for the guy in an Auburn jersey who isn't surrounded.

    But worse has been watching the behind-the-scenes TV productions that have followed him around in this process. The cameras couldn't pan off of Cam more than a few feet before running into Cecil Newton, inserting himself into everything Cam does. Cam is Mary and Cecil is the little lamb - anywhere Cam is, the lamb is sure to go.

    Along with that is the "I'm so good, it's all so easy for me" attitude Cam displayed at all times, and how excessively coached-up he was before stepping foot onto Gruden's TV set (and still, ask him to make a playcall and there's nothing there - every play was "drop back and stare for someone open" for Cam).

    * Jake Locker - I want to like Locker, but my final position before the draft is that the accuracy issue just isn't likely enough to be fixable for me to invest very highly in him. Maybe there's a QB coach out there who has watched all of Locker's film, sees something mechanical in his footwork or release that they're certain is the issue, and is sure that they can be the one to fix it. OK dude, go get 'em, and make it happen. I won't say it's impossible, but just that I'm not making the investment unless it's my QB coach "banging the table" (Mayock-ism) to make that pick.

    * Da'Quan Bowers - I put the question before my medical staff, and while they were initially confused over evaluating someone other than a 100 lb high school girl, eventually they came back with results that simply weren't a "green light" for drafting Bowers in the 1st round.

    * Jimmy Smith - The news today is that Smith failed three drug tests and admitted to likin' the purple drank.

    I'm really looking forward to the outrage over who the Vikings do/do not draft.

    *Legion* wrote:

    Let's talk about some of the guys I left out of my top 32:

    * Cam Newton - stuff

    Jason Whitlock had this to say:

    This column was supposed to be about why Cam Newton isn’t on my draft board.

    Yep. I wouldn’t draft the Heisman Trophy winner with the first pick in Round 1 or the last pick in Round 5. He smells like Vince Young, looks like a fit JaMarcus Russell and throws the ball as accurately as Tim Tebow.

    The draft bust flowchart deserves cross-posting here.

    Arrelious Benn also became a starter at WR, and will again assuming his ACL heals up. E.J. Biggers played extremely well at the end of last year, not bad for a 7th-rounder in 2009. I'd also throw LeGarrette Blount onto the pile; a UFA who led rookies in rushing, plus waiver-wire fodder like Ted Larsen and James Lee, who started big chunks of the season on the o-line. At the end of the year last year, there were ten rookies starting for Tampa due to the huge injury problems the team was having, and they played quite well.

    I may concede the point on Benn. For the sake of the discussion's origin - my statement about Gene Smith's record as a drafter - I've left UDFAs out of the equation.

    As for the other guys, they're in that class of guys who may well end up starting but may well be replaced in the starting lineup before the season, too. I left Derek Cox off the Jag list, for example, as I don't think he's a guaranteed starter even though I'm about 80% sure he will.

    But of course, we're just nitpicking degrees of draft excellence here, rather than actually arguing a contentious point.

    PFT is reporting that Rick Gosselin, who typically is very on-the-money with his mock drafts, has FIVE QBs going in his top 12 picks. Newton at 1, Gabbert 3 (Bills), Locker 8 (Titans), Ponder 10 (Redskins), Dalton 12 (Vikings). No, they need to fall a bit further, so Tampa can trade down to somebody who wants Ponder.

    Also, the next person to show me a mock draft that shows Da'Quan Bowers and his tinfoil knees going to Tampa gets set on fire. We have taken our fill of Clemson DEs already.

    garion333 wrote:

    Jason Whitlock had this to say:

    "I love Jeff George!"

    Fixed. I love Whitlock. 2011 and still name-dropping George.

    MilkmanDanimal wrote:

    We have taken our fill of Clemson DEs already.

    I know Gaines Adams didn't work out, but what is it about Charles Bennett's two career tackles that you didn't like?

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