Egyptian riots

http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId....

Interesting opinion peace about the Egyptian Revolution, America, Tiananmen and the China of today. It will be fascinating, very fascinating which model the new Egypt will adopt.

Malor wrote:
That's about $70 billion Egypt's never going to see again.

Worth it at twice the price.

We should have offered Saddam the same deal and saved us tax payers $900 billion (and counting).

Dirt wrote:

http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId....

Interesting opinion peace about the Egyptian Revolution, America, Tiananmen and the China of today. It will be fascinating, very fascinating which model the new Egypt will adopt.

I've seen too many articles like this which reduce Tiananmen to a simple black and white proposition between freedom and autocracy. The Tiananmen incident itself occurred not because of a government will to crush voices calling for change, but because the student protesters were divided amongst themselves as to how far they wanted reforms to go, and how willing they were to work with the government to achieve it. What few people realize is how close the negotiations between student protesters and government officials came to yielding a compromise. I think the important distinction in Egypt is the types of people protesting. In addition to educated young adults and students, we see in Egypt various groups of people, from different walks of life taking to the streets.

/China tangent

I'm very curious to see how the post-Mubarak era develops. I'm preparing case studies of several regions of the world for some job interviews, and picked Tunisia because it's gotten lost in the news as of late. What I've seen so far has suggested to me that one of the post important indicators of the direct Egypt will take is the extent to which women are given rights equal to men. Tunisia is a Middle East leader in that front and we've seen Egyptian women stand side-by-side with men, but who knows what will happen when the next leaders take power.

Grubber788 wrote:

The Tiananmen incident itself occurred not because of a government will to crush voices calling for change, but because the student protesters were divided amongst themselves as to how far they wanted reforms to go, and how willing they were to work with the government to achieve it. What few people realize is how close the negotiations between student protesters and government officials came to yielding a compromise.

This was known while Tiananmen uprising was going on. This is not new news.

/Tiananmen tangent

Interesting thing with Egypt is how many of the women have embraced Fundamentalist Islam which doesn't believe in gender equality.

The situation in Tienanmen Square seems different because for some reason, Chinese in general feel invested in their government and feel that they have a stake in what it's doing. To be perfectly honest, I don't know why that is. It's possible that the very corruption that allow the very rich in China to incrementally influence public policy is what keeps the Chinese people from revolting en masse. In this case, the rule is nominally autocratic, but in practice is actually a mix of oligarchy and autocracy.

In some ways, the Communist Party is very forward-thinking. That is, they are forward-thinking enough to realize that they are ultimately beholden to the people for the power that they hold, and that they must keep the people from uniting under a banner that is NOT them so as to retain their position. It's possible that the Chinese concept of "Mandate of Heaven" is still operating in a very subtle manner.

Disclaimer - I have absolutely no ground on which to make the above statements. I am not Chinese. I do not live nor have ever visited China. The above impression is culled from news reports, conversations with friends who have worked or have visited China, or who have parents who lived or still live in China. They are all purely speculative.

Eh, this thread could easily go to Cleveland (or Beijing, as it were) with this China talk. My only point is I'm uncomfortable with the Tiananmen comparisons.

Grubber788:

The comparisons are ill-founded because they are not apt. The Egyptian revolution (as it now is) was composed of all Egyptians from all walks of life, and their resolve was such that they were willing to face down the government with the army standing right there. Most importantly, the army was viewed as distinct from the government and in actuality, was distinct from the government. This means that it was possible for the people to engage the government in a purely peaceable manner and render the government's influence over the military completely moot.

Grubber788 wrote:

Eh, this thread could easily go to Cleveland (or Beijing, as it were) with this China talk. My only point is I'm uncomfortable with the Tiananmen comparisons.

It is inevitable. With their status and continuing rise, the PRC name will come up in any given situation as often as the USA's due to their status in the world. Sometimes it will be to point out what the PRC is doing right, and sometimes everything they are doing wrong, just as people use the USA. It's inevitable.

LarryC wrote:

The situation in Tienanmen Square seems different because for some reason, Chinese in general feel invested in their government and feel that they have a stake in what it's doing. To be perfectly honest, I don't know why that is. It's possible that the very corruption that allow the very rich in China to incrementally influence public policy is what keeps the Chinese people from revolting en masse. In this case, the rule is nominally autocratic, but in practice is actually a mix of oligarchy and autocracy.

In some ways, the Communist Party is very forward-thinking. That is, they are forward-thinking enough to realize that they are ultimately beholden to the people for the power that they hold, and that they must keep the people from uniting under a banner that is NOT them so as to retain their position. It's possible that the Chinese concept of "Mandate of Heaven" is still operating in a very subtle manner.

Disclaimer - I have absolutely no ground on which to make the above statements. I am not Chinese. I do not live nor have ever visited China. The above impression is culled from news reports, conversations with friends who have worked or have visited China, or who have parents who lived or still live in China. They are all purely speculative.

You're too modest.

Exciting times. I can't imagine the sort of temptations and trepidations that are going through the head of the Egyptian generals right now. If they manage to assist their country through a peaceful transition of government in the coming years (because it will take years), they will prove themselves to be some of the greatest men ever lived.

Sounds like an attempt at protesting in Algeria was clamped down on by their police state pretty hard:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/wo...

The protesters were hemmed in by thousands of riot police and blocked from embarking on a planned march through the capital. Many were arrested, although there were also conflicting numbers for those detained.

By Saturday afternoon, the square was lined by riot police and armored vehicles and a police helicopter circled overhead. Principal roads into the center of town also remained blocked and far fewer people were on the streets than would be typical on a Saturday.

The Interior Ministry posted a statement on its Web site saying that 250 people had taken part in the protests and that 14 people had been detained and later released, according to Reuters.

Human rights groups however said the number of arrests had been far higher.

Grubber788 wrote:

I'm very curious to see how the post-Mubarak era develops. I'm preparing case studies of several regions of the world for some job interviews, and picked Tunisia because it's gotten lost in the news as of late. What I've seen so far has suggested to me that one of the post important indicators of the direct Egypt will take is the extent to which women are given rights equal to men. Tunisia is a Middle East leader in that front and we've seen Egyptian women stand side-by-side with men, but who knows what will happen when the next leaders take power.

I am curious why Tunisia is considered "Middle East" -- it's on the same longitude as Germany. "North Africa" would be more accurate.

Gorilla.800.lbs wrote:
Grubber788 wrote:

I'm very curious to see how the post-Mubarak era develops. I'm preparing case studies of several regions of the world for some job interviews, and picked Tunisia because it's gotten lost in the news as of late. What I've seen so far has suggested to me that one of the post important indicators of the direct Egypt will take is the extent to which women are given rights equal to men. Tunisia is a Middle East leader in that front and we've seen Egyptian women stand side-by-side with men, but who knows what will happen when the next leaders take power.

I am curious why Tunisia is considered "Middle East" -- it's on the same longitude as Germany. "North Africa" would be more accurate.

I wasn't thinking as I was typing, but I suppose I often equate the territorial holdings of the former Ottoman Empire with the term "Middle East," even though as you rightly point out, North Africa shouldn't be in that umbrella.

I think a lot of people consider Arab countries in Africa to be 'Middle East' including Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya. It's because light brown people run them instead of dark brown.

Tanglebones wrote:

Sounds like an attempt at protesting in Algeria was clamped down on by their police state pretty hard:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/wo...

In another country (can't remember, sorry) the government is giving out money to families (something like $2,500) to quell potential protests.

garion333 wrote:
Tanglebones wrote:

Sounds like an attempt at protesting in Algeria was clamped down on by their police state pretty hard:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/wo...

In another country (can't remember, sorry) the government is giving out money to families (something like $2,500) to quell potential protests.

Bahrain. Saw the story today, will try dig it up.

*edit*
Here we go.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayA...

More detail

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...

garion333 wrote:
Tanglebones wrote:

Sounds like an attempt at protesting in Algeria was clamped down on by their police state pretty hard:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/wo...

In another country (can't remember, sorry) the government is giving out money to families (something like $2,500) to quell potential protests.

Here in US we just call that a stimulus package.

The military has dissolved Parliament and suspended the constitution. Things are moving forward. Let's hope this goes smoothly, but it's a good thing to see it moving along already.

Well, not so glad to see the military trying to kick people out of Tahrir, but ...

This might be a good sign, garion, from Tim Whewell the BBC Newsnight reporter;

#Egypt Army have tried to move people to allow traffic on the square - so politely. A few scuffles, but no one wants confrontation

However he followed it with this

#Egypt Just rung around activist groups, but none have had any contacts with the army yet.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Opposition groups in Iran are calling for mass protests across the country. Considering that there's quite a bit of unsettled business from the 2009 elections things could quickly heat up. From the articles I've read, the Iranian government has its security forces turned out and in high alert in order to prevent anything like what happened in Egypt from happening in Iran.

I also learned a history fun fact: Mubarak leaving power on February 11th just so happened to coincide with the 32nd anniversary of Iran's "Islamic Revolution's Victory Day," a national holiday celebrating the the fall of the Iranian monarchy and the return of Khomeini. I'm sure Iranian government officials aren't too keen about celebrating revolution right about now.

Most importantly, the army was viewed as distinct from the government and in actuality, was distinct from the government.

Yep. Found out yesterday that the military is not even allowed to vote. They've managed several transitions so far, so this is not in any way new for them. I have confidence that they will actually conduct free and open elections, as it's in their best interests.

To date I've seen no actual indication that Islamists will play a special role in Egypt's future, or even that they dominate society. I'd love to see evidence for that from outside the WND or Fox News style sources, even better would be something that does not involve pundits.

The false anxiety of influence

Comparisons between Egypt's current uprising and Iran's 1979 revolution have become something of a cliché.

The mass demonstrations in Egypt against a US-backed dictator have reminded many observers of similar scenes from the Iranian Revolution of 1979, leading some to believe that another "Islamic Revolution" is in the making.

This is a false reading of the Iranian Revolution of 1977-1979; and an even more flawed reading of the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.

A must read article. Pretty anti-Israel, but still raises some great points.

MrDeVil909 wrote:

The false anxiety of influence

Comparisons between Egypt's current uprising and Iran's 1979 revolution have become something of a cliché.

The mass demonstrations in Egypt against a US-backed dictator have reminded many observers of similar scenes from the Iranian Revolution of 1979, leading some to believe that another "Islamic Revolution" is in the making.

This is a false reading of the Iranian Revolution of 1977-1979; and an even more flawed reading of the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.

A must read article. Pretty anti-Israel, but still raises some great points.

Technically, I think it will be accurate to say that any event that changes the status quo in Middle East will be read as "anti-Israeli" by some.

Gorilla.800.lbs wrote:
MrDeVil909 wrote:

The false anxiety of influence

Comparisons between Egypt's current uprising and Iran's 1979 revolution have become something of a cliché.

The mass demonstrations in Egypt against a US-backed dictator have reminded many observers of similar scenes from the Iranian Revolution of 1979, leading some to believe that another "Islamic Revolution" is in the making.

This is a false reading of the Iranian Revolution of 1977-1979; and an even more flawed reading of the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.

A must read article. Pretty anti-Israel, but still raises some great points.

Technically, I think it will be accurate to say that any event that changes the status quo in Middle East will be read as "anti-Israeli" by some. :)

Heh, yeah. The writer does bang the drum a little harder than necessary though. Speaking as someone who bangs that drum myself. I just try not to get too fervent about it.

I think the article is spot on.

Best "Under Construction" web site ever: http://www.presidency.gov.eg/

Robear wrote:

To date I've seen no actual indication that Islamists will play a special role in Egypt's future, or even that they dominate society. I'd love to see evidence for that from outside the WND or Fox News style sources, even better would be something that does not involve pundits.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/pollock-Egyptpoll.pdf

Key Findings:

This is not an Islamic uprising. The Muslim Brotherhood is “approved” by just 15%, and its leaders get barely 1% in a presidential straw vote. Asked to pick national priorities, just 12% choose shariah over national power, democracy, or economic development. Asked to explain the uprising, economic conditions, corruption, and unemployment (30‐40% each) far outpace “regime not Islamic enough” (7%).

Surprisingly, asked two different ways about the peace treaty with Israel, more support it (37%) than oppose it (22%). Only 18% approve of either Hamas or Iran. And a mere 5% say the uprising occurred because the regime is “too pro‐Israel.”

El Baradei has very little popular support in a presidential straw vote (4%), far outpaced by Amr Musa (29%). But Mubarak and Omar Suleiman each get 18%.

A narrow plurality (36% vs. 29%) say Egypt should have good relations with the U.S. And just 8% say the uprising is against a “too pro‐American regime.” Still, something over half disapprove of our handling of this crisis and say they don’t trust the U.S. at all.

Granted, the poll is only 343 people who picked up the phone, so it's not really statistically significant for a large population like Egypt, but it's still some interesting numbers.

I also don't know what inherent polling bias the Washington Institute may or may not have.

I think it's past time for people to stop converging on Tahrir Square. It's time to go home and get on with life.

Rat Boy wrote:

This is just horrendous.

Was this the protesters proper or the counter-protesters during that crazy couple of days where there were clashes and prisoners / police were set loose in Cairo?

Not that it makes a difference to Ms. Logan, but I'm just curious as this would obviously be a black eye for the anti-government protesters.

DSGamer wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

This is just horrendous.

Was this the protesters proper or the counter-protesters during that crazy couple of days where there were clashes and prisoners / police were set loose in Cairo?

Not that it makes a difference to Ms. Logan, but I'm just curious as this would obviously be a black eye for the anti-government protesters.

My guess is that it's a mob without a purpose and pumped on adrenaline and feelings of empowerment and entitlement. This is why getting the Egyptian police force back up and quickly is so important, as is dispersing the crowd.

Rat Boy wrote:

This is just horrendous.

That is horrible. There's worse though, people are already blaming her for being attacked.

I'm starting to understand how pervasive this whole rape culture thing is.