Egyptian riots

It could fast track changes economically like the Tiananmen riots did. But if there is something the PRC has proven, it's that you don't have to change politically to pacify the people. You can separate politics from economics. Given this seems like an uprising based on economy, I don't see things changing politically too much.

You may be right, but I think (hope) that things are different now.

It's a very different world to the 80s and 90s, people are far more aware and connected. I think (hope) that it will make it harder to pacify people with window dressing.

But then there's the anarchistic part of me that hopes that this sets off similar protests around the world, and especially in Africa, against corrupt and dictatorial governments. Africans especially always need a strong man or warlord to rescue them, maybe they will learn that they can rescue themselves.

Perhaps, Dirt, but remember that people in the region have far more exposure to liberal democracies then the Chinese have. Like I said they seem to be calling for the creation of a social democratic model in the mould of their European neighbours.

There are Al Jazeera English Live Free Apps for iPhone and Android, by the by. This is worth following because it looks like the military is defending the protesters from the police.

I've been trying Al Jazeera all morning and the connection is spotty. Had to turn on the BBC instead.

I heard a rumor that military forces are now clashing with police. If that's so, then no matter what happens something is going to have to change.

LobsterMobster wrote:

I heard a rumor that military forces are now clashing with police. If that's so, then no matter what happens something is going to have to change.

wow, that's huge. can anyone corroborate?

Seth wrote:
LobsterMobster wrote:

I heard a rumor that military forces are now clashing with police. If that's so, then no matter what happens something is going to have to change.

wow, that's huge. can anyone corroborate?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...

Looks like a coup in the making.

Military Dictatorship?

President Hosni Mubara will dismantle the current government. Ruling party offices are ablaze.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/28...

Rexneron wrote:

President Hosni Mubara will dismantle the current government. Ruling party offices are ablaze.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/28...

What's the guy in the picture holding on his shoulder? It looks like he just looted a laser printer.

Rexneron wrote:

President Hosni Mubara will dismantle the current government. Ruling party offices are ablaze.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/28...

I like that it says he's going to replace the govt. He IS the govt.

Axon wrote:

People

Rexneron wrote:
Seth wrote:
LobsterMobster wrote:

I heard a rumor that military forces are now clashing with police. If that's so, then no matter what happens something is going to have to change.

wow, that's huge. can anyone corroborate?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...

Looks like a coup in the making.

Watching BBC Newsnight right now and the reporter on the ground is saying that the military are acting differently in separate areas. Civil war?

I was just listening to Al Jazeera and one of the commentator said that in Egypt the police are more analogous to the military in typical strongman dictatorships. The police get paid well. The police do the dirty work of interrogations and worse. The police are largely under control of the central govt. Meanwhile the military is conscripted and largely made up of average people. That would explain things well, I think. It's possible that there is a civil war brewing and that the guys with the torture cells back the govt. and the guys with the tanks back the people.

People

Rexneron wrote:
Seth wrote:
LobsterMobster wrote:

I heard a rumor that military forces are now clashing with police. If that's so, then no matter what happens something is going to have to change.

wow, that's huge. can anyone corroborate?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...

Looks like a coup in the making.

Watching BBC Newsnight right now and the reporter on the ground is saying that the military are acting differently in separate areas. Civil war?

His report included a lot of pleas from Egyptians for the EU to help them. I'm not quite sure what we can do beyond condemning the actions of the government which Ashton already has. Perhaps economic pressure but can that be effective?

Axon wrote:

His report included a lot of pleas from Egyptians for the EU to help them. I'm not quite sure what we can do beyond condemning the actions of the government which Ashton already has. Perhaps economic pressure but can that be effective?

The problem for the US is that this is yet another govt. that mistreated its people that we supported. So entering the fray and taking a side probably won't help in either direction. Just as it didn't help / matter in Iran. It's up to the people of Egypt to decide if they're done with the govt.

EU not the US, DS

I agree, the US wouldn't be viewed as a neutral party even after Clinton's row back this week. The EU on the other hand is but its frustrating even for supporters of the European Project like myself that there isn't a lot we can do. Troops are right out as you couldn't act fast enough even if you wanted to but perhaps Mubarak's assets could be seized and his possible visas blocked.

If Mubarak falls it could have wide ranging effects. The EU needs a policy that will ensure that liberal democracies take hold. if there is a domino effect. Perhaps if Sarkozy and Merkel announced tomorrow that they will not block Turkey's membership of the EU?

Just thinking out loud...

Is it just me or is it weird to hear the US president tell protesters "how" they're "allowed" to protest?

Biden says Mubarak is not a dictator.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/polit...

JIM LEHRER: The word -- the word to describe the leadership of Mubarak and Egypt and also in Tunisia before was dictator. Should Mubarak be seen as a dictator?

JOE BIDEN: Look, Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things and he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interests in the region: Middle East peace efforts, the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing the relationship with Israel.

goman wrote:

Biden says Mubarak is not a dictator.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/polit...

JIM LEHRER: The word -- the word to describe the leadership of Mubarak and Egypt and also in Tunisia before was dictator. Should Mubarak be seen as a dictator?

JOE BIDEN: Look, Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things and he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interests in the region: Middle East peace efforts, the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing the relationship with Israel.

That's major parsing there. I'm not going to say he's not a dictator, but let me tell you about some awesome things he does.

Biden is putting the long-term perspective on this. Egypt used to be one of the major threats to Israel, but then Sadat signed the Camp David Accords in 1979 and made peace with Israel. Sadat was assassinated a year or two later by Islamic fanatics who were angry about the deal. Mubarak came to power and continued Sadat's approach towards Israel. That fit with U.S. goals in the region. A stable Egypt has also meant a stable Suez Canal. So I understand the U.S. government's hesitation to get behind protesters without having a good idea of what emerges on the other side of revolution.

I'm not saying there isn't a strategic reason for the US to approach these things the way we do. It's just so much parsing and paying false credence to standards we don't hold our allies to. After doing this for decades in the Middle East it's so transparent as to be embarrassing.

Our Egyptian aid hard at work.

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/YW8UN.jpg)

JOE BIDEN: Look, Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things and he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interests in the region: Middle East peace efforts, the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing the relationship with Israel.

Translation: he's an evil motherf*cker, but he's our evil motherf*cker, so don't you dare criticize him.

Israel deeply fears democracies around it; that may be why they attacked Lebanon. They want strongmen that can hold populations in subservience.

Malor wrote:

Israel deeply fears democracies around it; that may be why they attacked Lebanon. They want strongmen that can hold populations in subservience.

I don't think that's a totally fair characterization. Israel is pretty fearful of all their neighbors, but that's in part because as soon as they declared independence those neighbors attacked.

I think there's plenty to criticize Israel for, but I think their preference for strongmen is driven by much the same political shortsightedness as the US - namely that strong authoritarian states are easier to influence in the short term.

As Tunisia (and now Egypt) are showing, there are clear limits to that approach.

because as soon as they declared independence those neighbors attacked.

If you're referring to the 1967 war, Israel shot first. They like to paint it as 'defense', but all Egypt, for instance, had on the border was two battalions... nowhere near enough to mount a credible attack. They were most likely a defensive force, not an offensive one. They had closed the Suez Canal to Israeli shipping, and the soldiers were probably there as a buffer.

Israel won so crushingly, not because they were that much better, but because their opponents weren't ready for open conflict. If they'd really been gearing up to invade Israel, they wouldn't have been caught so flatfooted.

(and, yes, closing the Suez Canal was a pretty sh*tty thing to do, but it wasn't violent.)

Israel declares independence: May 14, 1948

May 15, 1948: League of Arab States sends cable to UN Secretary General declaring their intent to create a United State of Palestine.

By the end of the month, 5 of the 7 League members have sent military forces to invade Israel.

Israel has plenty to be criticized for, but this really isn't the thread.

/derail

Looks like this may not have been quite as fast a pivot as I'd thought, in terms of US foreign policy.

Very selective there, Dimmerswitch, but I think we'll leave that alone

Reports of 38 killed in Alexandra but still massive numbers out on the streets, 50,000 massed in Cairo. It really is heart warming to see the pictures coming out of Egypt. This looks like a fate-a-compli unless Mubarak resorts to a utter vicious crackdown which I don't think he can pull off without huge blow back at this stage. I hope.

OG_slinger wrote:

Our Egyptian aid hard at work.

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/YW8UN.jpg)

This happened in Korea in the 1980's as well. One of those cannisters blew up above a college kid's head and put him into a 4 month coma that eventually ended in his death. Needless to say, it didn't engender a lot of a goodwill between Koreans and Americans. Worse yet, at the beginning of the demonstrations and the Chun crackdowns on them, the armored personnel carriers they used were borrowed from the AFK motorpool and mostly had the bright white star of the US Army on them. There was a lot more brutal repression and folks disappearing into secret prisons before democracy resulted.

Axon wrote:

Reports of 38 killed in Alexandra but still massive numbers out on the streets, 50,000 massed in Cairo. It really is heart warming to see the pictures coming out of Egypt. This looks like a fate-a-compli unless Mubarak resorts to a utter vicious crackdown which I don't think he can pull off without huge blow back at this stage. I hope.

A local radio DJ who is known to be pretty opinionated and distrustful of government tweeted this, and I have the same feeling.

The people won in Tunisia, they will win in Egypt, and everywhere else in the world lazy governments start to shudder nervously... Yalla!

I am most curious about whether or not a popularly elected Egyptian government would continue the highly unpopular policy of the Gaza blockade.