Biding Their Time

The degree to which Microsoft is sabotaging their own efforts to sell a coming product to consumers has become almost an art form unto itself. It is like watching an extraordinarily talented prodigy as they express their talent in a way that no one had ever considered possible before — except that the Xbox One team’s unfortunate talent is making people hate them.

But as we burn our homemade Don Mattrick dolls in effigy, we would do well to remember our new best friends are far from innocents. Watching E3 has been to me a bit like watching a band of criminals double-cross one another. It’s as though Microsoft, Sony, EA and their ilk all pulled up to the bank to rob it, but then Microsoft pulled a Leeroy Jenkins and went charging off on its own, only to find the bank already filled with police. As Microsoft is hauled away in handcuffs, Sony and EA stand in the gathering crowd, shaking their heads shamefully and tsk-tsk’ing their former partner in crime, only to wait for the chance to hit the bank down the street.

Jack Tretton, playing the consumer rights hero on stage a few nights ago, was a sight to behold. While I was as caught up in the schadenfreude as anyone else, it occurs to me now that the casting office must have been a little drunk when filling the part of Champion of the People and Friend to the Indie Dev. It’s a bit like choosing Michael Cera to play the lead in a biopic about Mike Tyson. Or maybe vice versa.

While I too am now the proud owner of a Playstation 4 pre-order, I try to remember why I don’t already own a PlayStation Plus account. While I am eager to get my hands on a new Star Wars Battlefront game and laud the decision to do away with online passes, I try to recall my feelings on Sim City. Sony and EA are doing a good job of buying up majority shares on consumer goodwill this week, which is what they should be doing.

I just wonder how they will eventually spend that currency.

I suppose there is a hubris that comes naturally with “winning” the previous generation. While the Xbox One team is doing a good job of charting new territory in the landscape of hubris, their tone-deaf arrogance at least echoes the language of Sony some six or seven years ago. Even Nintendo has an up-and-down cycle with the success of their consoles that suggests they get caught up in the echo chamber of their own self-identity every other time around the block.

The shame of it is that Xbox One’s ideas, at least as a starting point in some cases, aren’t all bad. There is an appeal to having all games be digitally available on day one. Having a Kinect that is more sensitive, better integrated and a generation more advanced leaves open the door for some nice opportunities. A lot of the games Microsoft showed are games I’d really like to play. Their Twitch.tv integration is really interesting, and should they iron out the kinks there is a lot of possibility in having a system that pulls together all my media.

Mind you, right now there’s no chance I’m buying an Xbox One under the current conditions. Even if I wanted to, my wife is absolutely not letting that thing into our house. She is far from a close follower of the hardware and gaming scene, but so pervasive is the information around the Kinect’s almost surveillance-like nature, that she is adamantly against having something with such ability to look into our lives in the same room with our kids. It probably didn’t help that the whole NSA spying thing blew up the same week.

I have railed to my wife in the past on the transgressions of UbiSoft DRM, games requiring always-on internet and the mismanagement of client information by gaming publishers. She has listened patiently if passively, and patted my hand gently as if to let me know she is going to work hard to pretend to care about this thing I’m talking about because I seem to care about it so much. But, when it comes to Microsoft’s recent announcements, I think she could hold her own in a NeoGAF flamewar when it comes to the One.

Congratulations, Microsoft. I’ve been trying to get my wife this involved into a gaming-industry discussion for almost twenty years. Between telling us how many people we’re allowed to have in the living room when watching a movie and jokes about sexual assault during your presentation, you’ve finally accomplished what I could not.

When I ask myself the question of whether Microsoft’s direct competitors (and even in some cases their partners) have changed their stripes or taken advantage of a clear opportunity, I submit that the latter is true. I might even go so far as to assume that they are working temporarily in opposition to their longer-term goals, which is not to say that once everyone has bought a bunch of PS4’s we might not see backtracking. That seems even more likely if you believe the earlier assumption around winner hubris.

I think of the current state of the industry a bit like I think about gas prices. I live in a state of mind such that I am happy to see gas prices around $3.50 a gallon, because just a few weeks ago it was over $4.00. That’s interesting, because it was only so many months ago that I was upset about $3.50 a gallon, and now here I am happy about it. Someday not too far down the line, the currently untenable $4.00 will certainly be not only acceptable but a thing to be excited about, because someone will push the $5.00 barrier.

The thing about me, and probably consumers as an aggregate, is that we don’t sustain base-level expectations. There doesn’t seem to be some bar past which we will break, as long as you take us there slowly enough. In the end, what Microsoft’s aggressive and broken strategy accomplishes is that the things that used to make us mad, that used to be a bridge too far, become normalized. We get to “go back” to just the things that were unacceptable, which now seem like a benefit.

So, yes, I was as excited as anyone else during Sony’s press conference, but now in the brighter light of day I begin to wonder: What have we actually gotten from them short of a promise not to murder us in our sleep? I like some of what I’m hearing from the major publishers, but do I really believe they wouldn’t be aggressively in favor of some of what Microsoft is positing, had they simply been able to get away with it?

No. I do not.

Comments

I'm curious, does you wife own a smartphone?

Or a tablet?

Or a computer with a webcam?

If she does, a camera is already pointed at her - just check out Ars Technica's article on the "RAT" phenomena. Or don't. She might decide to never use a computer again.

Kinect is one of the hardest devices to compromise you're likely to find in your home, so I find the worry about it a bit odd, and I suspect it'll blow over quickly.

As far as Sony goes, they've already proven themselves to be untrustworthy, what with losing customer information during the infamous hack that occurred two years ago. Ahhh, I remember that; gamers cried out, calling Sony scum and saying they'd never buy a Sony device again. How quickly we forget.

Nice article. It is really interesting how Sony basically said 'we are going to continue as we have been' and people were out of their chairs cheering.

To the first commenter, I don't think being hacked makes you 'untrustworthy'.... seems like every day I am reading about someone being hacked. Speaking of hacking, I'm looking forward to Xbox One launch week. I'm sure some people are going to try their hardest to spoil whatever '24-hour checker' there is.

Having all games available digitally from day 1 is something that Sony is also doing with the Vita. I imagine they're going to try the same thing on the PS4 as well.

Faceless Clock wrote:

I'm curious, does you wife own a smartphone?

Or a tablet?

Or a computer with a webcam?

If she does, a camera is already pointed at her - just check out Ars Technica's article on the "RAT" phenomena. Or don't. She might decide to never use a computer again.

Kinect is one of the hardest devices to compromise you're likely to find in your home, so I find the worry about it a bit odd, and I suspect it'll blow over quickly.

As far as Sony goes, they've already proven themselves to be untrustworthy, what with losing customer information during the infamous hack that occurred two years ago. Ahhh, I remember that; gamers cried out, calling Sony scum and saying they'd never buy a Sony device again. How quickly we forget.

It's not hacking the Kinect if Microsoft willingly allows a certain agency or agencies access to it.

I'm bummed Microsoft has screwed up the message so much as I find the Xbox One much more compelling. The PS4 just seems "more of the same". I've preordered the Xbox but will likely cancel and see how the first 6 months go. I'd hate to spend $500 to see it fizzle.

The bright-side is that since both are based on PC architecture, I expect more of the games will show up on PC. Maybe I'll just build a Steam box.

The kinect integration really will be the choice that either killed the Xbone or truly makes it. I truly understand why they did it, and if devs choose to embrace it, it could reap rewards.

The problem I see with Kinect integration is that up until now, Kinect games have been a poor attempt to woo the Wii crowd which is a gross mistake in this cycle. A majority of that crowd is not going to pop into Best Buy this Christmas and drop $500 on a whim, when a PS4 is staring them in the face for $100 less.

So, are devs going to use the Kinect for the hardcore games without making it obtrusive? We'll find out.

I really don't think that there is a killer app out there that will justify the additional cost of the Kinect integration. I hope I am wrong. Either way, the Xbone will be a late bloomer.

Watching E3 has been to me a bit like watching a band of criminals double-cross one another. It’s as though Microsoft, Sony, EA and their ilk all pulled up to the bank to rob it, but then Microsoft pulled a Leeroy Jenkins and went charging off on its own, only to find the bank already filled with police. As Microsoft is hauled away in handcuffs, Sony and EA stand in the gathering crowd, shaking their heads shamefully and tsk-tsk’ing their former partner in crime, only to wait for the chance to hit the bank down the street.

With the news that the Xbox One will only be usable in 21 countries at launch, and rumors that Microsoft employees have been harassing customers trying to play Wii U games at Best Buy, this analogy seems more apt.

Nice article, something like this I was also thinking today and discussing with a RL friend, but I think Microsoft lost a lot of opportunity on getting the good message of why the online requirement is good for all the players, and they just blew it telling that is a requirement to making the One play games....

Great article, Mr. Sands! I love that you're trying to take it all with a grain of salt. Today, everyone's shunning Microsoft and flocking to Sony. But as Faceless Clock mentioned, people have short memories: it wasn't so long ago that there was this big thing called "the PlayStation Network outage" (yes, I know external intrusion, but trying to make a point, bear with me). Microsoft may have messed up right now, but Sony dropped the ball in 2011 when they didn't have tighter security (could the outage have been avoided? that's another discussion altogether).

My point? That these popularity contests come and go. It may be Sony's turn right now, but Microsoft's turn will come again. And thus the pendulum will swing, and the world will keep turning.

In any case, thanks for your levelheaded analysis. I completely agree, chances are that major publishers would probably have been in favor of what Microsoft is doing, had it not been so unpopular.

"Hey everyone who wants to give consumers huge amounts of unwanted DRM? Lets do this, LEROYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY Jenkins!"-Microsoft

Thanks.. I looked up the old Youtube Leroy Jenkins vid... lol good stuff.

Most of your article made me chuckle, but the stigma over the Kinect spying device is laughable. It's no different than any other audio or visual device that is attached to a computer, which is attached to the internet. My desktop has a webcam, so does my laptop, so does my phone (which is "always on"). What is the logic that finally, now, the Kinect is a first persistent in home spying device? I struggle with this massive logic fault that everyone has. My goodness, if it's that big a deal, then UNPLUG everything, including your new Xbox - literally pull the power socket from the wall when you aren't using it.

I do agree here with the tiger in the bush mentality. MS needs to hush for a while - I think their policies need some clarification, but they are actually *trying* to innovate and make their console next gen and move us along to all-digital ecosystems with a small olive branch to the past by including the blu-ray drive. Sony is just a more powerful box (than this generation) that costs less. The Indie stuff they pushed on stage has nothing to do with why I need a PS4 - they could do that with PS3.

As you said your podcast, everyone is celebrating Sony for maintaining the status-quo and not really pushing us in to the future too quickly.

WyattERP wrote:

MS needs to hush for a while - I think their policies need some clarification, but they are actually *trying* to innovate and make their console next gen and move us along to all-digital ecosystems with a small olive branch to the past by including the blu-ray drive.

I could be wrong but going all digital has been an option for at least some time... on x360 or PS3. Games, Movies, Music(?), Services have been implemented to a degree where there is no point of getting physical media of any kind.

Interesting article and I totally see why you lumped EA in with Sony and Microsoft in an article about the next gen reveals at E3...uh, wait...actually, I don't.

Edgar_Newt wrote:

Interesting article and I totally see why you lumped EA in with Sony and Microsoft in an article about the next gen reveals at E3...uh, wait...actually, I don't.

I think it's in the context of how quick EA was to distance themselves publically from Microsoft's policy decisions. I don't think I've seen any other publishers make such a public show of saying "don't look at me!"

WyattERP wrote:

I do agree here with the tiger in the bush mentality. MS needs to hush for a while - I think their policies need some clarification, but they are actually *trying* to innovate and make their console next gen and move us along to all-digital ecosystems with a small olive branch to the past by including the blu-ray drive. Sony is just a more powerful box (than this generation) that costs less. The Indie stuff they pushed on stage has nothing to do with why I need a PS4 - they could do that with PS3.

As you said your podcast, everyone is celebrating Sony for maintaining the status-quo and not really pushing us in to the future too quickly.

I don't know about that. Microsoft may be trying to innovate a bit more this generation on the hardware front...but I don't think that matters as much anymore. Just look at PC gaming: individuals with mid-to-low end PCs have access to a tremendous breadth of excellent games but are unable to max out Crysis 3 (which isn't where the innovation is anyway). Last generation the PS3 had a substantive lead in hardware innovation but that didn't translate into sales or broad adoption on the level of the 360...in fact it impaired Sony's launch having the higher price.

You are absolutely right in mentioning that the whole indie games thing could have happened on the PS3...but the real innovation is the policy changes. Dropping the indie publishing fees and aggressively courting indie developers is innovation that is going to matter more than a upgraded Kinect. I hope that Sony's policy changes lead to a more diverse gaming landscape even if their hardware doesn't push us in that direction.

2-3 years from now everything could look very different, but how Microsoft is presenting the Xbox, it seems they are targeting walking fist-bumps wearing sports jerseys trading their killstreak/perk optimizations. I fall far out of that demographic and I don't watch any TV at all anymore so the PS4 looks far more appealing in the innovation it might drive through policy shifts and not necessarily through hardware or network upgrades. That is my hope anyway.

Certis wrote:
Edgar_Newt wrote:

Interesting article and I totally see why you lumped EA in with Sony and Microsoft in an article about the next gen reveals at E3...uh, wait...actually, I don't.

I think it's in the context of how quick EA was to distance themselves publically from Microsoft's policy decisions. I don't think I've seen any other publishers make such a public show of saying "don't look at me!"

Fair point. Query how many other publishers were asked about it though (I cannot think of another).

Edgar_Newt wrote:
Certis wrote:
Edgar_Newt wrote:

Interesting article and I totally see why you lumped EA in with Sony and Microsoft in an article about the next gen reveals at E3...uh, wait...actually, I don't.

I think it's in the context of how quick EA was to distance themselves publically from Microsoft's policy decisions. I don't think I've seen any other publishers make such a public show of saying "don't look at me!"

Fair point. Query how many other publishers were asked about it though (I cannot think of another).

I believe Ubisoft was asked at some point as well about their policy toward XO trade-ins.

Nei wrote:
WyattERP wrote:

MS needs to hush for a while - I think their policies need some clarification, but they are actually *trying* to innovate and make their console next gen and move us along to all-digital ecosystems with a small olive branch to the past by including the blu-ray drive.

I could be wrong but going all digital has been an option for at least some time... on x360 or PS3. Games, Movies, Music(?), Services have been implemented to a degree where there is no point of getting physical media of any kind.

I don't think it has been available for every game though? Especially not on day one...I think we can all agree that everything is headed this direction. However, the subtlety MS proposes here is that I can buy the game disc, install on my One, and throw that disc away (virtually) and play from there on out without getting up and exchanging discs. From what I understand, I can also "share" this game now on the cloud to other "family" members or access this game on another friend's console by logging into my XBL account and downloading from the magical cloud where unicorns dance and leprechauns throw money at you. Or maybe they steal money from you, not sure which one yet. Sony doesn't quite have this subtle nuance, but nothing technological limiting them in the PS4 from doing it - maybe their back-end infrastructure isn't there yet.

Wr3nch wrote:
WyattERP wrote:

I do agree here...

I don't know about that. Microsoft may be trying to innovate a bit more this generation on the hardware front...but I don't think that matters as much anymore. Just look at PC gaming: individuals with mid-to-low end PCs have access to a tremendous breadth of excellent games but are unable to max out Crysis 3 (which isn't where the innovation is anyway). Last generation the PS3 had a substantive lead in hardware innovation but that didn't translate into sales or broad adoption on the level of the 360...in fact it impaired Sony's launch having the higher price.

You are absolutely right in mentioning that the whole indie games thing could have happened on the PS3...but the real innovation is the policy changes. Dropping the indie publishing fees and aggressively courting indie developers is innovation that is going to matter more than a upgraded Kinect. I hope that Sony's policy changes lead to a more diverse gaming landscape even if their hardware doesn't push us in that direction.

2-3 years from now everything could look very different, but how Microsoft is presenting the Xbox, it seems they are targeting walking fist-bumps wearing sports jerseys trading their killstreak/perk optimizations. I fall far out of that demographic and I don't watch any TV at all anymore so the PS4 looks far more appealing in the innovation it might drive through policy shifts and not necessarily through hardware or network upgrades. That is my hope anyway.

Not sure if you aren't agreeing with me, or saying that the PS4 is also irrelevant because it's just an upgraded box for better graphical fidelity? I actually think PS4 is simply a mid-grade PC with a good graphics card.

I think the One's SoC with custom internal silicon, embedded reliance on the cloud infrastructure, they way they partition memory is more advanced thinking. Of course this tweaked "cloud" architecture may fail, but some of the aspects they are developing on the software side to take advantage of it are far more advanced then Sony.

I for one love how quickly (in theory, I've only seen glossy marketing presentations on state) the MS multi-tasks between games and other apps. That's pretty impressive. To me this breaks down the time delay barrier to play many games. The way they show multi-tasking two games, while some might argue a ludicrous concept, is pretty impressive. They are playing Ryse, then they get a notification that a KI match is available and instantly switch. Even if I don't need to play two games at the same time, but get bored with "Multiplayer masher game 1" and want to switch quickly to CO-OP game because a friend got online, then I love this. I just yell at my box to do my bidding!

I'm rambling now...

Faceless Clock wrote:

just check out Ars Technica's article on the "RAT" phenomena. Or don't. She might decide to never use a computer again.

Oh great - on page 2 of that Ars article and I just put a post-it over my camera/light on my laptop...

I'm basically in the same camp at Wyatt, and the wrap-up from Sean. Sony "won" E3 by sticking to the status quo, and MS is trying to push the ball forward.

I, for one, welcome the day-one digital download future, the "family share" concept, and some of the other nifty things that are coming with the Xbone. I'm not thrilled at the always-on Kinect, but my 360 is already "always online" as it stands today.

But I also haven't run out and snagged a pre-order for either system quite yet. I'm still waiting for things to play out, and will probably do what I've done for the last two generations - wait until 6 months after release before dipping a toe in the waters.

I will say, however, that I'm super excited for just about all the games that Nintendo put in their E3 Direct presentation.

Nice article.

Monday night was certainly a shocker, and I thought the Conference Call's take on it was fair and accurate. I told my wife as it ended that Sony might have just knocked Microsoft out in the that conference.

But listening to the email section right after the reaction, which was recorded before the event, you could sense the real disconnect. While there was much consternation on Microsoft policies, it was pretty well agreed that not only were we going to be headed in that direction, but it was because consumers wanted to be moved there.

I kept thinking during the reaction portion of the episode that in time, Sony's refusal to innovate was going to be an anchor instead of a sail. The video of sharing a disc was cute. But letting my brother in Seattle, 2000 miles away, play a game I own, is kind of better, right?

Microsoft still has things to fix. They need to find someone that can just tell a straight story. It can be pieced together, but that's not the consumer's job. And they need to completely change the 24 hour check-in to just a check whenever you connect or install a game. If someone wants to load an Xbox with a bunch of games and never connect again, so be it. An offline XB1 is kind of pointless. I can't many going through the trouble. The moment they log on, they lose all of the games they sold.

I'm not nearly as worried that Microsoft will fail out of the gate now as I was Monday night. For now, I'm sticking with the ecosystem that has been awesome for 10 years now.

WyattERP wrote:
Nei wrote:
WyattERP wrote:

MS needs to hush for a while - I think their policies need some clarification, but they are actually *trying* to innovate and make their console next gen and move us along to all-digital ecosystems with a small olive branch to the past by including the blu-ray drive.

I could be wrong but going all digital has been an option for at least some time... on x360 or PS3. Games, Movies, Music(?), Services have been implemented to a degree where there is no point of getting physical media of any kind.

I don't think it has been available for every game though? Especially not on day one...I think we can all agree that everything is headed this direction. However, the subtlety MS proposes here is that I can buy the game disc, install on my One, and throw that disc away (virtually) and play from there on out without getting up and exchanging discs.

I can't comment on Xbox GoD... since I pulled the plug on my 360 and game offline, however, PSN been doing Day1 Digital for a year. Heck, I downloaded 20GB(?) of Ni No Kuni on they day it came out... and took less time than having it shipped by Amazon. So to say, I'm all for digital future.

XBL GoD is not nearly as convenient. No games show up on release day, and prices are generally too high. I did just buy Tomb Raider for $30 last week, though.

But far too many games remain $60 long after they have been discounted in stores.

But I suspect XB1 will later that, since all games will be available on release day, and I suspect there will be aggressive price drops, as they have been experimenting with that recently on the 360.

Jayhawker wrote:

XBL GoD is not nearly as convenient. No games show up on release day, and prices are generally too high. I did just buy Tomb Raider for $30 last week, though.

But far too many games remain $60 long after they have been discounted in stores.

But I suspect XB1 will later that, since all games will be available on release day, and I suspect there will be aggressive price drops, as they have been experimenting with that recently on the 360.

Exactly - this is my expectation, that MS will start to skew more towards a Steam-like model. The XBL and GoD sales they've been doing for the last few months have had some amazing cuts.

This is really what I'm expecting - with the discs being used just as an alternative way to deliver the bits, and the sharing and sell-back pieces of the puzzle, its opening the door for some deep post-release discounts.

Wr3nch wrote:

Last generation the PS3 had a substantive lead in hardware innovation but that didn't translate into sales or broad adoption on the level of the 360...in fact it impaired Sony's launch having the higher price.

I think it was fairly well known that while the PS3 hardware potentially was more powerful than the 360 it was more difficult to develop for. They even said that they made it hard to develop on purpose to somehow keep it interesting for the life time of console, back when they apparently had Microsoft's current PR team.

http://news.cnet.com/sony-ps3-is-hard-to-develop-for-on-purpose/

That is a great analogy Sean.

I'm never getting an Xbox One. I didn't get an Xbox or a 360, because I already have a gaming PC and will always have one. However, the Xbox One is special because while I never had a 360, I did entertain getting one at some point. I won't for the One.

Why?

Because Microsoft is openly hostile to me, now. I don't live in the US. I don't have a reliable internet connection by international standards. I don't even think anyone in the Xbox offices knows my country exists, which means that for all intents and purposes, my concerns and my needs don't exist. I fork over money, with the understanding that they can and will screw me over while expecting me to thank them for privilege.

Nope. Not happening. They can keep their box. I'll buy a Wii U.

PS4 gives me the opportunity to put an SSD in a console.

Winnah!